The Rail Network in Wales

Transcription

1 The Rail Netwrk in Wales The Case fr Investment Prfessr Mark Barry 18 September 2018

2 Mark Barry M&G Barry Cnsulting Ltd Mae r ddgfen yma hefyd ar gael yn Gymraeg. This dcument is als available in Welsh. Crwn cpyright 2018 WG36241 Digital ISBN

3 This study was led by Prf Mark Barry f Cardiff University and undertaken by a cmbined team f: M&G Barry Cnsulting, Arup, Mtt MacDnald, Cgitamus and SDG. Supprt and cntributins frm WG/TfW, NR and a wide range f stakehlders was als secured. This public facing summary dcument is supprted by tw mre detailed Prgramme Strategic Outline Cases; ne fr nrth Wales and ne fr suth Wales Credit/cpyright f sme f the demgraphics and emplyment activity maps t: Duncan Smith, at the Centre fr Advanced Spatial Analysis, University Cllege Lndn (Lumin City) The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 2 September 2018

4 Frewrd I d like t thank all thse wh have wrked s diligently ver the last six mnths t undertake this study and t rigrusly examine whether there is a case fr investment in Wales rail infrastructure. The supprting detail is cmprehensive and thrugh in its analysis. The emerging reality is that althugh new imprved rail rlling stck will be delivered acrss the UK ver the next few years, disappintingly, these vehicles will nly be able t perate in 2 nd gear at best in Wales. Fr example, the new Intercity Express Trains (IET) being rlled ut fr GWR services between Swansea and Lndn are capable f 140mph and whilst they perate at 125mph between Bristl and Lndn, they will nly be able t perate at typically 90mph r less between the Severn Tunnel and Swansea. This is related t the fact that the Welsh rail netwrk has nt received an equitable prprtin f UK rail investment ver many years. The Wales Rute, which represents 11% f the UK rail netwrk, has received just ver 1% f rail enhancements (which are typically fcussed n imprving netwrk capability, reliability and capacity) in recent years. The result is a less efficient railway with lwer capacity versus the UK as a whle, leading t lwer demand and higher subsidies per passenger; mre wrryingly it is als having a detrimental impact n the Welsh ecnmy. Our cnclusins, which are cnsistent with the findings f bth the Welsh Affairs and Transprt Parliamentary Select Cmmittees at Westminster, is that investment is needed, is justified and can deliver ecnmic benefits; the prpsals set ut in this study culd cntribute at least 2Bn t the Welsh ecnmy. Our ecnmy needs faster and mre frequent services between Wales majr twns and cities and t ther key UK cmmercial centres such as Bristl, Lndn, Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgw, Edinburgh, Leeds and Liverpl as well as t majr internatinal gateways like Heathrw and Manchester airprts. Our ambitin is t see jurney times f: Cardiff t Paddingtn in 90 minutes, Swansea t Cardiff in 30 minutes, Cardiff t Bristl Temple Meads in 30 minutes, Hlyhead t Chester in 60 minutes and Llandudn t Crewe in 60 minutes. T achieve this ambitin, the main lines in nrth and suth Wales shuld bth be capable f 100 mph and have sufficient capacity t perate faster lng distance and additinal lcal all-stp services. Mre than that, given ur shared envirnmental respnsibilities and the need t address issues f rad cngestin, especially air quality impacts, we need t develp a viable and affrdable alternative t the car. Whilst rail des nt currently serve all parts f Wales it des cver a large and grwing prprtin f ur ppulatin. Therefre, investment in rail infrastructure aligned t future innvatins in tractin pwer will enable us t travel when required, mre sustainably in future and at the same time prvide essential enhancements t a key part f ur cuntry s ecnmic infrastructure. The vital rle f bus services and active travel mdes have nt been verlked; whilst nt a fcus f this study, they are vital elements an integrated public transprt netwrk fr cmmunities all ver Wales and ften prvide an imprtant part f the ttal end-t-end jurney alngside rail travel. I lk frward t wrking with bth the UK and Welsh Gvernments t prgress the schemes set ut in this initial study. Prf Mark Barry, September The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 3 September 2018

5 Table f Cntents 1 Summary 5 2 Plicy Cntext and majr UK Rail schemes 14 3 Stakehlder Feedback and Cmments 23 4 Ecnmic And Transprt Cntext 27 5 Prpsed Interventins fr Nrth and Suth Wales 42 6 Next Steps 54 7 Appendices 56 Figures Figure 1 All Wales view f Visin and verarching bjectives... 6 Figure 2 Illustratin f a ptential rail fundatin fr a Swansea Bay Metr Figure 3 DfT Plans fr HS Figure 4 Emerging prpsal fr Nrthern Pwerhuse Rail Figure 5 DfT estimated jurney times t Lndn using HS Figure 6 Frm DfT Study: Ptential distributin f ecnmic utput in 2037 after investment in HS Figure 7 Cardiff rail cnnectivity vs majr UK cities (frm Greengauge 21 - Beynd HS2, May 2018) Figure 8 Ptential UK HSR X netwrk (frm Greengauge 21, Beynd HS2, May 2018) Figure 9 Wales Rute frm NR Netwrk Specificatin Figure 10 ORR Figures - Wales Rute histrical investment since Figure 11 Activity (ppulatin & emplyment) density acrss nrth Wales & nrth west England Figure 12 Demand by statin n NWML 2016/ Figure 13 NWML line speeds Figure 14 Grwth Track Aspiratins fr PT Netwrk Figure 15 GWML/SWML serves ver 3M frm Bristl t Swansea Figure 16 Activity (ppulatin and emplyment) density acrss suth Wales Figure 17 Rail jurney speeds alng the GWML Figure 18 GWML/SWML links between GVA per capita and rail infrastructure Figure 19 Line speeds n GWML between Paddingtn and Swansea Figure 20 West Wales rail travel demand Figure 21 West Wales rail travel revenue Figure 22 GVA per capita f selected UK cities Figure 23 Activity (ppulatin and emplyment) density acrss Swansea Bay urban area Figure 24 Tram-train fr peratin n valley lines nrth f Cardiff Figure 25 Illustratin f Nrth Wales Rail Visin Figure 26 Ptential nrth Wales service patterns Figure 27 Suth Wales Main Line the ambitin f a 100-mph railway Figure 28 Ptential "balanced" SWML service pattern Figure 29 Illustratin f a ptential rail fundatin fr a Swansea Bay Metr Tables Table 1 - TEN-T Cmpliance status f cre rail rutes in Wales 19 Table 2 Summary f ecnmic benefits by wrkstream 43 Table 3 Ptential SWML service frequencies 50 Table 4 Ptential SWML jurney times fr a range f service scenaris 50 The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 4 September 2018

6 1 SUMMARY 1.1 Backgrund Fllwing the July 2017 cancellatin f electrificatin n the Great Western Main Line (GWML) between Cardiff and Swansea, the Secretary f State fr Transprt annunced the develpment f business cases fr rail enhancement schemes acrss Wales. T supprt this wrk, the Cabinet Secretary fr Ecnmy and Transprt Ken Skates annunced in May this year that Prfessr Mark Barry f Cardiff University wuld lead a prgramme t establish the strategic and ecnmic case fr investment in Wales rail infrastructure. This executive summary The Case fr Investment - and Prgramme Strategic Outline Cases (PSOC) are the utputs f that wrk. We have develped a psitive and cmpelling case fr majr rail investment that addresses bth the Welsh Gvernment s (WG) ecnmic ambitins and ur brader envirnmental and well-being bjectives. This is even mre imprtant given the scale and ptential ecnmic impact f rail schemes being develped elsewhere in the UK and the need t respnd t the cancellatin f the electrificatin f the GWML t Swansea. The analysis is clear that a prgramme f investment in rail infrastructure in Wales is required t supprt a strnger, inclusive and mre equitable ecnmy, delivering prsperity fr all by cnnecting peple, cmmunities and businesses t jbs, services and markets. Imprved rail infrastructure and services will help t deliver a range f verarching scial and ecnmic needs, as set ut in the Cabinet Secretary s annuncement: imprving cnnectivity and reducing jurney time between cities in Wales; expanding the city regin areas acrss Wales; grwing crss-brder ecnmies; enhancing cnnectivity frm Wales t Lndn; imprving access t airprts; maximising the ptential benefits and ffset negative cnsequences f High Speed 2 (HS2); prviding cmpelling jurney chices t users f the cngested M4 at Swansea; and meeting trans-eurpean netwrk standards. 1 This analysis supprts the case fr change and sets ut the key findings and recmmendatins f the wrk undertaken since the annuncement thrugh tw Prgramme Strategic Outline Cases. The wrk als reflects extensive discussins with stakehlders in bth nrth and suth Wales frm business, educatin, lcal gvernment and the rail industry. In ding s, an initial visin, bjectives, and sme ptential interventins have been set ut that will be develped thrugh mre detailed business cases. These include measures t maximise the ptential psitive ecnmic impacts f HS2 in nrth Wales, and t address its ptential negative ecnmic impacts in suth Wales. Equally imprtant, are the pprtunities that these prpsals present fr mre f us t travel mre efficiently and sustainably. This wrk als supprts and infrms the mre detailed Strategic Outline Cases that the Department fr Transprt (DfT) has asked Netwrk Rail t undertake in respect f specific schemes in Wales including imprvements t the infrastructure n the Nrth Wales Cast mainline, the Wrexham t Bidstn line, and between the Severn Tunnel and Cardiff. 1.2 Lng term under investment in Wales rail infrastructure A key finding f this wrk is the identificatin and quantificatin f a lng-term and systematic underinvestment in Welsh rail infrastructure cmpared t the UK as a whle. Fr example, the Office f Rad and Rail data 2 fr shws that the Wales Rute, which cvers 11% f the UK netwrk, has nly received just ver 1% f the enhancement budget ( 198m ut f an England and Wales ttal f 12.2bn). These chices and pririties are made and set by the UK Gvernment n behalf f Wales. Wales has been underfunded, if ne uses the Wales Rute as a basis, by mre than 1bn ver that perid. This at a time when the UK is cmmitting 56bn t High Speed 2, and ptentially 30bn t Crssrail 2 in the suth-east, and 70bn t Transprt fr the Nrth 3 ver the next 30 years t deliver majr schemes like Nrthern Pwerhuse Rail (NPR). 1 Extract frm a Statement by the Cabinet Secretary fr Ecnmy and Transprt: Ambitins fr Great Western and Nrth Wales Main Lines, 08 May ORR Annual Efficiency and Finance Assessment Netwrk Rail - Wales Rute Plan The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 5 September 2018

7 Enhancements imprve the capability, capacity and reliability f the rail netwrk, and s the limited investment in Wales cntributes t fewer and less attractive services, resulting in a lwer mdal share fr rail and higher subsidies per passenger. This analysis is cnsistent with recent reprts published by bth the Welsh Affairs and Transprt Parliamentary Select Cmmittees at Westminster. The Huse f Cmmns Transprt Cmmittee has recently cncluded that the Department fr Transprt s current decisin-making prcesses and existing systems f scheme appraisal wrk against regins utside the suth-east as they are weighted heavily twards the reductin f existing cngestin while disadvantaging areas in need f ecnmic regeneratin. In develping plans fr new rail schemes, we cannt be cnstrained by a prcess that has histrically disadvantaged Wales and must instead fcus n prgressing schemes that deliver n ur wider bjectives. 1.3 Visin fr rail in Wales Our verarching visin fr rail in Wales is shwn belw (Figure 1). T frame mre detailed scheme and business case develpment we have develped with stakehlders verarching visins and a set f bjectives fr rail enhancements acrss fur key wrkstreams as fllws: Nrth Wales Nrth Wales Main Line Wrexham-Merseyside (Brderlands line) Suth Wales Suth Wales Main Line Swansea Bay Urban Area This initial fcus will supprt the Department fr Transprt s develpment f the business cases fr these areas. Further Prgramme Strategic Outline Case schemes can be develped as the wrk is prgressed. Figure 1 All Wales view f Visin and verarching bjectives The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 6 September 2018

8 Nrth Wales Main Line (NWML) Visin: Building upn the wrk f Grwth Track 360 t supprt inclusive and balanced ecnmic grwth in Wales and nrth west England, by prviding faster and mre frequent services thrugh investment in the nrth Wales cast line and by maximising the benefits f HS2. Objectives: T deliver n this visin fr nrth Wales interventins will need t: 1. Widen access t emplyment acrss nrth Wales, Cheshire and Liverpl by imprving rail services. 2. Develp a service pattern (jurney time and frequency) that supprts Grwth Track 360 s ambitins: a. Jurney times f less than ne hur between the main centres f Hlyhead and Chester; and Llandudn and Crewe b. Frequency dubling between Hlyhead and Lndn; and Hlyhead t Cardiff/Birmingham c. Frequency dubling between the nrth Wales cast and Manchester Airprt d. At least ne train per hur frm the nrth Wales cast and Wrexham t Liverpl 3. Enhance rail cnnectivity frm nrth Wales t internatinal gateways at Manchester and Liverpl airprts. 4. Prmte scial inclusin by imprving lcal access t emplyment, services & key centres. 5. Prvide a viable public transprt alternative t private car jurneys, fr all jurney purpses including turism. 6. Prvide sufficient capacity and imprve rail netwrk resilience in nrth Wales t accmmdate future demand. 7. Prmte interventins that integrate with HS2 and the majr develpments at Crewe and Chester statins t supprt crss-brder passenger jurney requirements 8. Reduce the envirnmental impact f transprt, especially carbn emissins & air quality. 9. Imprve rail netwrk efficiency t allw a lwer future subsidy requirement per passenger. At this stage we anticipate the mst likely interventins required t deliver this visin, include: Mdernisatin f the Nrth Wales Main Line (NWML) frm Crewe t Hlyhead (including line speed imprvements, re-signalling and electrificatin); Faster lng-distance services frm key hubs in nrth Wales t Lndn, Manchester, Manchester Airprt, Liverpl & Cardiff with fewer stps Hurly cnnectivity t Lndn via Crewe (direct and/r via HS2) New lcal all-stp cmmuter services in nrth east and nrth west Wales Duble track Wrexham-Chester t supprt additinal services On-track capacity and peratinal enhancements at Chester statin Selected new statins acrss the netwrk The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 7 September 2018

9 Wrexham-Merseyside (Brderlands line) Visin: Supprting ecnmic grwth and imprving cnnectivity acrss the nrth Wales and Merseyside area by enhancing the Brderlands rail line t deliver faster, mre frequent, and better integrated services. Objectives: T deliver n this visin fr the Wrexham Merseyside area interventins will need t: 1. Widen access t emplyment acrss nrth Wales, Cheshire, Liverpl and Manchester by imprving rail services. 2. Prvide a frequent and well-cnnected transprt system that supprts the ecnmic aspiratins f the nrth Wales and Mersey Dee regins. 3. Prmte scial inclusin by imprving lcal access t emplyment, services and key centres. 4. Maximise the ptential fr statins t accelerate urban regeneratin and majr develpment site delivery. 5. Increase the prprtin f jurneys in nrth east Wales undertaken by rail. 6. Cntribute t develping a nrth Wales Metr including imprvements t multi-mdal interchanges. 7. Reduce the envirnmental impact f transprt, especially carbn emissins & air quality. 8. Imprve rail netwrk efficiency t allw a lwer future subsidy requirement per passenger. At this stage we anticipate the mst likely interventins required t begin t deliver this visin, include: Full peratinal integratin f the Wrexham-Bidstn service with Merseyrail permitting faster thrugh running t central Liverpl perating at 4 trains per hur (tph) A new statin at Deeside Industrial Park with Park and Ride (P&R) and imprved lcal bus links Majr upgrade t Shttn statin t imprve interchange Park & ride facilities at selected statins with bus integratin at several statins alng the line The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 8 September 2018

10 Suth Wales Main line (SWML) Visin: Supprting inclusive and balanced ecnmic grwth in Wales and suth west England by prviding faster and mre frequent services thrugh investment in the Great Western rail crridr. Objectives: T deliver n this visin fr the Suth Wales Main Line interventins will need t: 1. Reduce rail jurney times between West Wales and Lndn, twards targets f: a. 90 minutes between Cardiff and Lndn Paddingtn b. 30 minutes between Cardiff and Bristl Temple Meads c. 30 minutes between Swansea and Cardiff 2. Increase service frequencies between suth west Wales and Lndn; Cardiff and Bristl Temple Meads; and Swansea and Cardiff. 3. Prvide sufficient capacity and imprve rail netwrk resilience between Cardiff and Bristl t accmmdate future passenger and freight demand. 4. Enhance rail cnnectivity t internatinal gateways/airprts and Enterprise Znes 5. Imprve Park and Ride prvisin fr accessing the Suth Wales Main Line and reduce reliance n the M4 crridr 6. Imprve integratin between main line rail and the wider transprt netwrk, especially the develping suth Wales and Bristl Metr systems. 7. Maximise the ptential fr statins t accelerate urban regeneratin and majr develpment site delivery. 8. Increase the number f trips made by public transprt, fcusing n cmmuter trips. 9. Reduce the envirnmental impact f transprt, especially carbn emissins & air quality. 10. Imprve rail netwrk efficiency t allw a lwer future subsidy requirement per passenger. At this stage, the mst likely interventins required t begin t deliver this visin, include: Line speed imprvements frm Severn Tunnel Junctin t Swansea and beynd that enable the benefits f new trains t be realised (including cnsideratin f electrificatin and mre capacity) New services perating n a balanced pattern f fast and stpping services (4tph frm Cardiff t Lndn and 2 tph frm Swansea; 4 tph Bristl Temple Meads t Cardiff and 2tph frm Swansea). Ptential fr new statins at Magr, Llanwern, Cardiff Parkway, Rver Way, Miskin- Junctin 34, Brackla, Cckett and St Clears. Enhanced transprt interchange and Park and Ride near the M4 in Swansea Bay. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 9 September 2018

11 Swansea Bay (Urban Area) Metr (Figure 2Errr! Reference surce nt fund.) Visin: Accelerating ecnmic grwth acrss the Swansea Bay City Regin, expanding labur market catchments, and encuraging investment by transfrming the regin s rail netwrk. Objectives: T deliver n this visin fr Swansea Bay interventins will need t: 1. Reduce jurney times between key ppulatin centres including Swansea, Neath, Prt Talbt, Llanelli, Carmarthen, Pembrke and Milfrd Haven. 2. Increase service frequencies a. fr lcal statins n the main line between Carmarthen and Prt Talbt, especially during peak perids b. n the Heart f Wales line t serve cmmuters int Swansea and beynd c. acrss suth west Wales t imprve suitability fr daily cmmuting 3. Imprve reginal transprt accessibility thrugh widening the spatial reach f the rail netwrk and services. 4. Imprve Park and Ride prvisin fr access t the Swansea Bay regin. 5. Prvide a viable public transprt alternative t the cngested M4/A48 crridr 6. Cntribute t develping a Swansea Bay Urban Area Metr including imprvements t multi-mdal interchanges. 7. Maximise the ptential fr statins t accelerate urban regeneratin and majr develpment site delivery. 8. Increase the number f trips made by public transprt, fcusing particularly n cmmuter trips. 9. Reduce the envirnmental impact f transprt, especially carbn emissins & air quality 10. Imprve rail netwrk efficiency t allw a lwer future subsidy requirement per passenger At this stage we anticipate the mst likely interventins required t begin t deliver this visin, include: A new dedicated Swansea Bay cmmuter rail netwrk serving a range f new and existing statins (fr example, Landre, Felindre and Winch Wen) Subject t peratinal feasibility, tw initial rutes (including sme new infrastructure) culd be perated using the rlling stck based n the tram-train that will be prcured fr the Suth Wales Metr. A Llanelli Pntarddulais Swansea Metr service A Prt Talbt Neath - Swansea Metr service. Tram-train capability t give mre affrdable and flexible extensin ptins in later phases Park and Ride prvisin at key statins Integratin measures fr active travel and bus rutes t maximise the rail netwrk s reach The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 10 September 2018

12 1.4 Ecnmic benefits f ver 2Bn Figure 2 Illustratin f a ptential rail fundatin fr a Swansea Bay Metr The wrk undertaken t date makes the case fr further investment in Wales rail infrastructure and has identified direct transprt user benefits ranging frm 1.8Bn t 2.4bn in present value terms (using 2010 prices) ver a 60-year perid. In strategic case terms this equates t apprximately 50m annually f reginal GVA impact (using 2015 prices) r ver 1100 jbs. In additin, an initial assessment f intra-city agglmeratin benefits identified a further 200M f benefits (using 2010 prices). This assessment is deliberately cnservative in nature especially in respect f agglmeratin benefits recgnising that further and mre granular analysis as part f mre detailed business case develpment will be required. The baseline analysis was based n: A package f measures t increase frequencies t 4 trains per hur alng the Nrth Wales Main Line, a ne-hur jurney between Chester and Hlyhead, additinal statins, and integratin with HS2; A Wrexham t Merseyside package t deliver 4 direct trains per hur frm Wrexham t Liverpl via Bidstn, with additinal statins; Enhancements t the Suth Wales Main Line t deliver lwer jurney times and imprved frequencies including 4 trains per hur between Suth Wales and Lndn (f which 2 wuld riginate frm Swansea r further west), 4 trains per hur between Cardiff and Bristl, and at least 4 trains per hur between Swansea and Cardiff. A dedicated Swansea Bay cmmuter rail netwrk using rlling stck based n the tram-train that will be prcured fr the Suth Wales Metr. In the first instance tw new services linking Swansea High Street and Prt Talbt t the east and Llanelli via Llansamlet and the Swansea District Line These benefits are generated by reducing jurney times fr rail passengers, with significant benefits t business users. Additinal benefits als arise frm reduced rad cngestin, envirnmental benefits (especially imprved air quality and reduced CO 2 emissins), and safety imprvements thrugh reductins in car use. This analysis will be expanded and refined in subsequent and mre detailed business case develpment t: assess benefits n a mre granular basis; t baseline thse benefits and csts at the same pint in time; t better mdel intercity agglmeratin benefits; and t determine where the maximum benefits can be assciated with the mst affrdable capital prgramme. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 11 September 2018

13 1.5 Key decisins These prpsals present majr pprtunities, challenges and decisins, and highlight sme key ptins - with advantages and disadvantages which include: Hw best t perate rail services n the Suth Wales Main Line frm Lndn/Bristl t west Wales and in particular the balancing f the benefits f fast jurneys between majr statins and the rle f rail services in enabling lcal jurneys. This trade-ff is particularly apparent fr services between Prt Talbt and Llanelli where there is significant demand fr lcal travel but stpping all trains at lcal statins wuld significantly impact jurney times. Deciding n the ptimal slutin will require further stakehlder discussin and will be especially imprtant where new infrastructure may be required. The extensin f the scpe f Netwrk Rail s wrk t enhance the relief lines t develp and deliver interventins alng a greater extent f the Suth Wales Main Line and t Bristl Temple Meads in rder t increase capacity, imprve reliability and reduce jurney times. The develpment f a new dedicated Swansea Bay Urban Area cmmuter rail netwrk ptentially using rlling stck similar t the tram-train technlgy being deplyed fr the Suth Wales Metr. The ptential integratin f Wrexham-Bidstn with the Merseyrail netwrk and the future rle f Shttn Statin as a Metr Hub. The rientatin f the Crewe HS2 hub and the need t ensure ease f cnnectivity between HS2 and nrth Wales services, its impact n direct Lndn t nrth Wales services, and the ruting f Cardiff-Manchester services. The apprval fr the full extent f the signalling enhancements riginally prpsed fr the Nrth Wales Main Line. The develpment f further measures at Chester statin t enhance peratinal capacity and reliability in rder t supprt the prpsals we have set ut. The early cmpletin f the Western Rail Link t Heathrw with the ptential t supprt direct services frm suth Wales and suth west England int Heathrw. T test ptins in partnership with third parties, f interventins that deliver faster services and mre capacity between nrth Wales, Chester, Manchester, Manchester airprt, Liverpl and Leeds. In ding s, develpment f Nrthern Pwerhuse Rail (NPR), HS2 Phase 2b and the ptential Manchester western rail access shuld reflect this requirement. An nging prcess that engages with relevant stakehlders and industry partners will be essential t secure supprt fr preferred interventins. We have already and will cntinue t engage with rganisatins such as Merseytravel, Transprt fr the Nrth, DfT, Netwrk Rail (NR), lcal authrities as well as business-led grups like Grwth Track 360, the CBI and the Chambers f Cmmerce. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 12 September 2018

14 1.6 Next Steps fr Scheme Develpment Wrk will cntinue t develp and cnsult n the prpsed enhancements t the rail netwrk which the UK Gvernment must make if it is t fulfil its prmise t rebalance the UK ecnmy. The current frm f prgramme cases will be made available t Netwrk Rail and the Department fr Transprt t frame the develpment f their specific scheme business cases. A cmmitment is nw needed frm the UK Gvernment t fund the develpment and delivery f an ambitius, realistic, and equitable rail investment prgramme fr Wales. The pririty items identified fr Nrth and Suth Wales which shuld be subject t further frmal develpment are as fllws: Nrth Wales Suth Wales Intrductin f all stp cmmuter services n the Nrth Wales Main Line (NWML) t enable limited stp faster lng-distance services Line speed and capacity upgrade f the NWML; electrificatin t be cnsidered in this cntext Wrexham-Bidstn-Liverpl upgrade, integratin with Merseyrail services, upgrade f Shttn interchange & develpment f Deeside Parkway NWML new statins Chester Statin enhancements Crewe Hub and interface with NWML services Intrductin f additinal services n the Suth Wales Main Line (SWML) frm Bristl and Lndn Line speed and capacity upgrade f the SWML frm Bristl t West Wales; electrificatin and new infrastructure t be cnsidered in this cntext Swansea Bay Metr (rail-based cmpnent) Swansea Bay/ West Wales Parkway (linked t last tw items) SWML new statins Western Rail Link t Heathrw (being prgressed by DfT/NR) The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 13 September 2018

15 2 POLICY CONTEXT AND MAJOR UK RAIL SCHEMES Bth the UK 4 and Welsh Gvernments recgnise the imprtance f infrastructure t the ecnmy. Fr example, the Department f Transprt s (DfT) 2017, Transprt Investment Strategy highlighted the need t, build a strnger, mre balanced ecnmy by enhancing prductivity and respnding t lcal grwth pririties. Welsh Gvernment s (WG) Prgramme fr Gvernment sets ut ambitins fr a united and cnnected cuntry ; plans fr the Suth Wales Metr t help supprt ecnmic develpment right acrss Suth East Wales; and thse in develpment fr Nrth Wales exemplify these cmmitments. Taken tgether these analyses and plicy statements cnfirm the imprtance t bth the Welsh and UK ecnmies f: 2.1 Apprach Imprving the efficiency f transprt netwrks bth within and between majr city regins Enabling mre efficient labur markets by prviding peple with mre chices f, and easier access t, places f wrk (als recgnising changing wrk patterns and pprtunities t wrk frm multiple lcatins) emplyers with access t larger pls f labur and mre ptins f where t lcate their peratins; Creating mre efficient transprt netwrks which: help t reduce CO2 emissins and air quality issues supprt mre sustainable frms f transprt enable ecnmic develpment; especially, t help supprt new emplyment and husing in areas that have struggled t d s - partly because f issues related t current transprt prvisin This wrk was undertaken using Welsh Gvernment s updated WelTAG guidance (stage ne) and als cmplies with the DfT s WebTAG guidance, Strategic Case Guidelines and Rebalancing Tlkit. The business cases als demnstrate hw investment will help meet the brader aims f Welsh Gvernment as set ut in its Well-being f Future Generatins Act, Envirnment Act and its ecnmic strategy, Prsperity fr All, as well as meeting the UK Gvernment s aspiratins fr a mre prductive and balanced ecnmy. At this early stage the fcus has been n making the case fr investment. 2.2 High Speed 2 (HS2) and Nrthern Pwerhuse Rail (NPR) The DfT via HS2 Ltd, is currently delivering the 56bn HS2 5 prject t increase rail capacity and reduce jurney times between Lndn and the Nrth f England. In wrk cmmissined by the DfT, KPMG have estimated 6 that HS2 will bst the UK ecnmy by 15Bn every year. Similarly, Transprt fr the Nrth (TfN) has recently annunced 7 an ambitius 70bn 30-year plan, which includes Nrthern Pwerhuse Rail (NPR), t transfrm rail cnnectivity acrss the nrth f England, which is claimed will deliver benefits f 150bn by Whilst HS2 delivers much needed capacity n the UK rail netwrk, the impact n jurney times (Figure 5) will be even mre significant. Fllwing GWML electrificatin, whilst Cardiff-Lndn jurney times will still be at best 1hr 45min (a jurney time achieved in the 1980s) and Swansea- Lndn 2hr 45min, HS2 will enable Lndn t Manchester jurneys f 1hr 5 mins. Whilst there are different cmmercial, technical and demand prfiles n these rutes, these differences materially matter and have an ecnmic impact fr example n individual investment decisins pertaining t business activity and lcatin The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 14 September 2018

16 Figure 3 DfT Plans fr HS2 Figure 4 Emerging prpsal fr Nrthern Pwerhuse Rail The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 15 September 2018

17 Figure 5 DfT estimated jurney times t Lndn using HS2 Whilst we welcme the scale and ambitin f HS2 and NPR, we are als mindful f the ptential impact n Wales, even when ne takes accunt f the current Great Western electrificatin and Inter City Express Train (IET) prgramme. The DfT-cmmissined KPMG analysis estimated that whilst Nrth Wales GDP culd benefit 50M per annum frm HS2, Suth Wales GDP culd be reduced by 200M per annum. Figure 6 Frm DfT Study: Ptential distributin f ecnmic utput in 2037 after investment in HS2 Furthermre, in develping bth HS2 Phase 2b, NPR and a ptential western rail link t Manchester airprt, pprtunities t integrate and prvide services thrugh Chester t nrth Wales must be cnsidered. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 16 September 2018

18 2.3 Wider evidence supprting the case fr investment in the Welsh rail netwrk The recent Greengauge 21 reprt, Beynd HS2 9, assessed rail cnnectivity between Wales and the rest f the UK t be pr. Fr example, Cardiff has the wrst rail cnnectivity f all the UK s majr cities (Figure 7 ). Figure 7 Cardiff rail cnnectivity vs majr UK cities (frm Greengauge 21 - Beynd HS2, May 2018) That same reprt als made the case fr further investment in the UK rail netwrk t supprt mre balanced ecnmic grwth acrss the UK and identified schemes that culd benefit the Welsh ecnmy. Whilst nt explred in this study, these included the cnversin f the Y shaped HS2 netwrk int an X netwrk and the further upgrade f the GWML t Swansea (Figure 8). Hwever, we als see the imprtance f cnnecting nrth Wales t this cncept netwrk, especially services frm nrth Wales via Chester t the HS2 hub at Crewe which will be nly 55 minutes frm Lndn nce HS2 is perating. The reprt als identified schemes that wuld imprve cnnectivity t and frm Wales. These include the Manchester Western Airprt rail link which prvides the ptential t rute Trans Pennine rail services frm Manchester and the airprt t the mid-cheshire line via Chester and n t nrth Wales In respect f the GWML/SWML a 2013 study 10 cmmissined by the Great Western Partnership (and which itself surced earlier quantitative analysis), als fund a clear link between ecnmic prductivity and travel time frm Lndn alng the GWML. It als fund that beynd a tw-hur Lndn jurney time, there is a marked reductin in business activity and prductivity. A study 11 by the University f the West f England and the University f Bath, estimated that the prductivity gap experienced in suth west England and which can t be attributed t ther factrs, is explained by tw travel time variables: the average travel time t Lndn and t the next fur largest cnurbatins (Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Glasgw). It is als nted that the jurney time variable als has a significant bearing n the relative prductivity f the Welsh ecnmy (alng with sme ther English regins). A 10% change in jurney times is assciated with a 0.6% change in annual business prductivity Greengauge 21, 2012, Great Western Cnditinal Output Statement, fr The Great Western Partnership 11 University f the West f England and University f Bath (2006), Meeting the Prductivity Challenge 2: Update, Reprt f a study carried ut fr the Suth West f England Reginal Develpment Agency. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 17 September 2018

19 Figure 8 Ptential UK HSR X netwrk (frm Greengauge 21, Beynd HS2, May 2018) The imprtance f investing in transprt t supprt greater prductivity was als recently restated in a reprt by the CBI 12, Unlcking Reginal Grwth, Understanding the Drivers f Prductivity Acrss the UK s Regins and Natins. There is, therefre, a pressing need t develp the primary rail rutes in Wales the Nrth Wales mainline and the Suth Wales and Great Western mainlines t enable benefits cmmensurate with HS2 and NPR, and s cmplement these majr schemes in England t help build, as the DfT set ut in its Transprt Investment Strategy 13, a strnger and mre balanced ecnmy (p7). This bjective is als cnsistent with the findings f the widely respected, 2006 DfT cmmissined, Eddingtn Transprt Study 14, the first f which was, There is clear evidence that a cmprehensive and high-perfrming transprt system is an imprtant enabler f sustained ecnmic prsperity. 2.4 The Eurpean TEN-T Netwrk The Eurpean TEN-T netwrk is cmprised f rads, railway lines, inland waterways, inland and maritime prts, airprts and rail-rad terminals thrughut the 28 Member States f the Eurpean Unin and sme jining cuntries. Building n existing and planned infrastructure, the netwrk aims t prvide seamless transprt crridrs fr passengers and freight. The TEN-T cnsists f tw planning layers: a cmprehensive netwrk and a cre netwrk. In Netwrk Rail s Wales Rute area, the Nrth Wales Cast Main Line between Crewe and Hlyhead is defined as a cre passenger netwrk, and the rute between Bristl Parkway and Cardiff Central is defined as a cre passenger netwrk, and a cre freight netwrk between Bristl Parkway and The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 18 September 2018

20 Milfrd Haven. These are als included within the cmprehensive rail netwrk, alng with ther principal rail rutes in Netwrk Rail s Wales Rute area such as the Marches Line and the Cambrian Line. There is a legal requirement fr member states t realise the cre netwrk s alignment accrding t the technical and peratinal characteristics by 2030, and the cmprehensive netwrk s alignment by 2050, unless the Eurpean Cmmissin accepts that investment in infrastructure cannt be justified in sci-ecnmic terms. The TEN-T netwrk acrss Wales wuld be bradly cmpliant in mst areas except fr railway infrastructure fr which minimum standards cver electrificatin, line speeds, and electrnic signalling (ERTMS). In respect f Netwrk Rail s Wales Rute area, fr cre rutes the fllwing cmpliance requirements and assciated gaps in cmpliance were identified in the Wales Rute Study: Table 1 TEN-T Cmpliance status f cre rail rutes in Wales Electrificatin Requirement: The entirety f the Passenger and Freight Cre Netwrks shuld be electrified by Gap: The fllwing sectins f the Cre Netwrks within Netwrk Rail s Wales Rute area are nt at present, electrified r funded fr electrificatin by cmmitted schemes: Crewe Hlyhead Cardiff Milfrd Haven The majrity f ther sectins f the UK s Cre netwrk have already been electrified. Rute Availability Requirement: The entirety f the Cre Freight Netwrk t be able t accmmdate 22.5 tnne axle lads at 100kph by Gap: The current infrastructure in Wales is currently incmpliant with the TEN-T requirement in the fllwing area: Swansea Llanelli (There are nt currently, any funded schemes t upgrade the Rute Availability n this line) Train Length Requirement: The entirety f the Cre Freight Netwrk t be able t accmmdate 740m trains by Gap: The UK rail netwrk is largely nn-cmpliant with the train length requirements f the TEN- T Cre Freight Netwrk, even fllwing the implementatin f funded schemes in CP5. Eurpean Railway Traffic Management System (ERTMS) Requirement: The entirety f bth the Cre Passenger and Freight netwrks shuld have ERTMS installed and peratinal by Gap: The UK s ERTMS implementatin prgramme has nt been develped with the aim f meeting the TEN-T requirements. 2.5 Rail investment in Wales Versus the UK The Office f Rad and Rail (ORR) and Netwrk Rail (NR) data in respect f investment in rail maintenance, renewals and enhancements als presents a case that Wales (and specifically the Wales Rute) has nt received levels f investment cmmensurate with the rest f the UK rail netwrk since 2011 (when disaggregated data was first published by the ORR). The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 19 September 2018

21 Figure 9 Wales Rute frm NR Netwrk Specificatin 2017 Our analysis suggests that f the ttal England/Wales rail infrastructure, the Wales Rute represents 15 abut 11% f the rute length (1490km) and 9 % f the track length (2,458km). Since its inceptin in 2011 until , as a prprtin f UK Gvernment investment the Wales Rute has received 16, in cash terms, 1.99bn (~4.37%) ut f an England/Wales ttal f 44bn. This is brken dwn as: 940m n Maintenance/Operatins, categrised as nn-capex (5.15%) England / Wales ttal = 18.3bn 861m n Renewals (6.32%) England / Wales ttal 13.6bn 198m n Enhancements (1.63%) England / Wales ttal = 12.2bn 15 ORR Annual Efficiency and Finance Assessment Netwrk Rail - Wales Rute Plan Netwrk Rail Regulatry Accunts The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 20 September 2018

22 Figure 10 ORR Figures - Wales Rute histrical investment since 2011 There is a clear disparity between the levels f investment, particularly in enhancements, acrss the wider UK rail netwrk versus the Wales Rute. Given such investment impacts the capacity and reliability f the rail netwrk, it is n surprise that there are netwrk limitatins; Slw jurney times, fr example: Bangr t Chester (60 track miles) 1 hur, 10 minutes (55mph) Bangr t Manchester (100 track miles) 2 hurs, 40 minutes (42mph) Bangr t Cardiff (208 track miles) 5-6 hurs (41-35mph) Carmarthen t Cardiff (67 track miles) 2 hurs (34mph) Insufficient passenger and train capacity, fr example: Single lines (e.g. between Wrexham and Chester which has prevented direct services frm Manchester and Liverpl perating t Wrexham) Insufficient platfrms at Cardiff Central, leading t passenger delays and cnstraining grwth. The current need t cmbine lng distance and cmmuter services n much f the Welsh rail netwrk Cllectively this cntributes t fewer, less reliable and less attractive services resulting in a lwer mdal share fr rail versus the UK as a whle. Fr example, rail is used fr nly 2.2% f jurneys t wrk in Wales (versus 5.4 % in England and 4.6% in Sctland) and abut 5% f passenger Kms. The fact the metrics fr funding per passenger km are higher in Wales than anywhere else in the UK ( 0.43 per passenger Km in Wales versus, fr example, 0.31 fr Lndn Nrth East) 17 is n surprise as many years f under investment has led t lwer levels f passenger demand per track km and higher peratinal csts and subsidy per passenger versus the UK as a whle. This is a drain n bth Welsh and UK gvernments resurces. Capital investment t enhance the capacity and reliability f the rail netwrk, as has been demnstrated elsewhere is the UK, is the nly way t imprve this psitin. Fr example, as a result f the 9bn West Cast Line upgrade in the early 2000s, Manchester is tday just 2hrs 7mins frm Lndn (versus ver 2hr 30mins previusly) just a few minutes slwer than the current Lndn t Cardiff jurney (even thugh Manchester is 50 kms further away frm Lndn than Cardiff). This investment directly led t mre demand fr services between Lndn and Manchester (an estimated tripling f passengers carried between 1997 and 2013) and precipitated capacity issues which have cntributed t the case fr HS2. 17 ORR Rail Industry Financial Infrmatin , p19 The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 21 September 2018

23 A reprt by the Passenger Transprt Executive Grup (PTEG) in 2014, A Heavy Lad t Bear 18 als made the case fr reviewing hw Netwrk Rail s track access fees are allcated based n its assessment that the regins f the UK utside Lndn are disadvantaged by carrying csts that shuld be allcated t the suth east f England, main intercity rutes r freight. Anecdtal evidence and that frm earlier Welsh Gvernment 19 cmmittees, suggests the underfunding f Welsh rail ges back t the 1990s. Fr example, in the 2011, the Enterprise and Learning Cmmittee at the Welsh Assembly, cncluded: This inquiry has left us with the distinct impressin that Wales is nt getting its fair share f investment in rail infrastructure, r getting it fast enugh: prgrammes t electrify track, t imprve statins and t upgrade rlling stck seem destined t reach Wales well behind ther parts f the UK. This assessment has been recently validated by a reprt frm the Huse f Cmmns Parliamentary Transprt Select Cmmittee in t UK rail investment 20. In their reprt, MPs say current transprt scheme appraisal methds will always favur Lndn as they are weighed heavily twards the reductin f cngestin and jurney time savings. This actively disadvantages less ecnmically buyant regins and wrks against the Gvernment's intentin t "rebalance the ecnmy". Furthermre, analysing the data presented in that reprt 21 in respect f public spending n rail acrss the UK indicates that per capita expenditure n rail in Wales is tw thirds f that in England. The Welsh Affairs Select Cmmittee cncurred with this cnclusin in their recent reprt 22 which further requested the UK Gvernment t engage clsely with the Welsh Gvernment t identify and scpe ut cst-effective transprt prjects n which the mney saved frm the cancellatin f electrificatin culd be spent. There is very cmpelling evidence therefre, that Wales has been caught in a feedback lp as regards rail investment. The result is an under-funded and less efficient netwrk serving fewer passengers and requiring higher subsidy per passenger than wuld be the case had the rute received a mre equitable share f UK investment in rail enhancements Natinal Assembly, Enterprise and Learning Cmmittee, Future Rail infrastructure in Wales, January Transprt Cmmittee, June 2018, The Cancellatin f Electrificatin in Suth Wales The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 22 September 2018

24 3 STAKEHOLDER FEEDBACK AND COMMENTS At this early develpment stage, we have engaged frmally and infrmally with a wide range f stakehlders t help determine the imprtance f a range f ptential interventins and t gauge lcal ecnmic cncerns. These suggestins have been added t the interventins develped by the prgramme team and appraised accrdingly. Our study has built n the full bdy f wrk that has already been usefully carried ut by ur key stakehlders such as Grwth Track 360 in Nrth Wales, Netwrk Rail (particularly its rute studies), lcal authrities and city regins (plans and ambitins). The invisible Wales-England brder fr businesses and rail passengers means the nrth west f England makes a vital cntributin t the nrth Wales ecnmy; similarly, there are strng ecnmic links between Cardiff, Newprt and Bristl. Therefre, we have cnsulted widely amngst crss-brder stakehlders. As ur wrk prgresses, we will cntinue t widen ur engagement with stakehlders t start t disseminate the findings f ur high-level appraisal f ptins and build up a richer picture f views. Abertawe Br Mrgannwg University Hspital Bard Arriva Trains Wales Bevan Fundatin Blake Mrgan Carmarthenshire Cunty Cuncil CBI Cardiff City Regin Bard Transprt Lead Authrity Cardiff City Regin Ecnmic Grwth Partnership Celtic Energy Cheshire East Cuncil Cheshire & Warringtn LEP Cheshire & Nrth Wales Chamber f Cmmerce Chester Grwth Partnership City & Cunty f Swansea DB Carg Greater Western Railway Grwth Track 360 JR Smart Mersey Dee Alliance Rail Task Frce Merseytravel Neath Prt Talbt Cuncil. Netwrk Rail (Wales Rute & Lndn Nrth West) Nrth Wales & Nrth East Wales Metr Steering Grup Nrth Wales Business Cuncil Nrth Wales Ecnmic Ambitin Bard Nrth Wales Grwth Bard Pembrkeshire Cunty Cuncil POBL Grup Swansea Bay City Regin Bard Swansea Bay City Regin Ecnmic Advisry Bard Suth Wales Chamber f Cmmerce Suth West Wales Lcal Authrity Transprt Directrs Grup Swansea Ecnmic Regeneratin Partnership Swansea University TechHub Swansea The Urbanists Transprt fr the Nrth Transprt fr Wales Veeq Welsh Lcal Gvernment Assciatin The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 23 September 2018

25 Summary f Key Stakehlder Feedback & Suggestins: Jbs & Skills T achieve a prsperus city ecnmy, an efficient railway netwrk is a necessity it s as critical as a water system Pr transprt cnnectivity stifles skills base and the easy mvement f peple. Infrastructure has huge effect n skills base. The lack f it, cupled with Brexit, means there s a large skills gap. Pr transprt infrastructure and cnnectivity has a particularly negative effect n yung peple lts f yung peple & yung families leaving Wales. Businesses cnsistently rate transprt cnnectivity as critical fr their business Emplyment is negatively affected by pr service frequency There is a real pprtunity cst by nt investing in rail infrastructure as inactin still csts tax payers mney. Nrth east Wales and Deeside culd cntinue t be strng in manufacturing with the right transprt cnnectivity Large amunt f travel t wrk jurneys in Swansea Bay are within the regin s imprved rail cnnectivity needs t fcus n lcal nt just strategic lngdistance jurneys Despite turism being vital t the ecnmy, the lack f cnnectivity means Wales punches belw its weight in turism terms Rail fares are unaffrdable alng nrth Wales cast which is preventing railbased cmmuting Investment in Wrexham and Deeside wuld prvide large dividends fr jbs due t crss brder emplyment patterns. It is nt currently pssible t reach Swansea between the hurs f 08:00-09:00 frm west Wales Slw jurney times frm Swansea t Lndn affects external perceptin f the regin in investment terms West Wales needs better cnnectins t the jbs available in Cardiff Pr quality f rail service has negative effect n the rads netwrk. Rising cngestin n A55 and M56. By 2025, M56 predicted t reach ttal gridlck fr between five and six hurs a day. Serius cngestin n M4 arund Neath Prt Talbt and West Wales causing significant air quality issues and negative impact n business. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 24 September 2018

26 Cngestin Railheading is cmmn n Suth West Wales end f GWML whereby rail users drive t Neath r Prt Talbt instead f their nearest statin t catch Lndn train. This causes lcal cngestin fr these areas. Large number f business parks are nt served by rail resulting in car-based cngestin Nrth east Wales & Cheshire are at the margins f bth Netwrk Rail s Wales Rute and Lndn Nrth West units. This results in the regin falling thrugh Institutinal cracks and a lw priritisatin f needs. Ptential benefits frm recent re-signalling wrk between Llandudn Junctin and Chester are nt being fully realised alng whle line with manual signalling still in use frm Llandudn Junctin Tracks west f Didct reduce frm 4 t 2 which makes gaining extra capacity difficult Existing Operatinal and Infrastructure Challenges Current passenger numbers n nrth Wales cast shuld nt be used t determine future demand - current lw passenger numbers are due t lw service quality. Capacity is limited beynd Chester. Reslving issues at Chester Statin will release significant benefits. Capacity cnstraints exist arund the Severn Tunnel and Bridgend The Chester/N Wales rute t Manchester via Warringtn is f greater imprtance than the current services n the mid-cheshire line which are slw and infrequent. The Chester t Manchester cmmute is critical fr ur business cmmunity wh want t access labur markets Current HS2 design ptin fr Crewe relegates Welsh services t independent lines away frm hub Slw line speeds mean that existing rail jurney times cannt cmpete with car fr thse residing in west Wales Very pr service prvisin between Cardiff and Bristl New Operatinal & Innvative technlgies such as hydrgen and rlling stck such as tram Lcal management f sme nn-mainline rutes shuld be cnsidered e.g. Upgrading Shttn r Flint t a hub statin culd be key part f The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 25 September 2018

27 Infrastructure Requirements train may ffer cnnectivity slutins fr Swansea Bay and the Wrexham Bidstn Line. Wales a sensible test bed fr digital railway. Wrexham-Bidstn, Cnwy, Cambrian lines etc nrth Wales metr (car parking issue at Shttn needs reslving). Wrexham-Bidstn services shuld be run thrugh t Liverpl cnnecting with Merseyrail s netwrk and frequencies increased t 4tph Line speed increases needed alng Wrexham- Bidstn t unlck new service capabilities 4-track between Rhyl and Prestatyn needs reinstating New nrth Wales /nrth west England statins needed at Deeside Industrial Park, Shttn, Brughtn, Wrexham Industrial Park, Chester Business Park (Nrth f A55 and may require bus link t business park), Chester Parkway High rail fares n the nrth Wales cast supressing demand and a big disparity exists with Suth Wales fares. Lng distance strategic services alng nrth Wales cast shuld becme limited stp and decupled frm lcal cmmuter service stpping at all statins Western access link t Manchester airprt with services serving the airprt and cntinuing nrth west is imprtant Creating Crewe as a hub is huge pririty and essential fr cnnecting Wales t HS2 Making the NWML a 125mph railway is achievable with new interventins New suth Wales statins needed at St Clears, Ced Darcy, Cckett, Magr, eastern Cardiff Seamless cnnectivity t NPR frm Chester especially at Warringtn is hugely imprtant fr ur West-East rutes The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 26 September 2018

28 4 ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT CONTEXT 4.1 Ecnmic Status The challenge fr Wales as a whle is t increase bth its levels f prductivity t imprve its Grss Value Add (GVA) per capita (which is nly 73% f UK average 23 ) and t deliver its bligatins n sustainability and well-being. This is especially imprtant in urban centres but perhaps a mre demanding challenge in addressing the legacy f ecnmic islatin and decline that has afflicted sme rural and pst-industrial cmmunities acrss Wales. Fr the frmer, better transprt can certainly and directly address the challenge thrugh agglmeratin benefits; fr the latter better transprt can nly be part f a slutin that requires cmplementary measures fcussed n cmmunities and bespke regeneratin and ecnmic develpment interventins. In suth and nrth Wales, the railways shaped the pattern f urban develpment. The main line in the suth cnnects Newprt with Cardiff, Bridgend, Prt Talbt, Neath, Swansea, Llanelli and nwards t Carmarthen, Milfrd Haven, Fishguard and Pembrke in west Wales. The main line in the nrth cnnects Flint, Prestatyn, Rhyl, Clwyn Bay, Llandudn, Bangr and Hlyhead. 4.2 Nrth Wales Nrth Wales has a ppulatin f sme 697,000 with the castal strip twns east f Cnwy (with a rail statin) accunting fr sme 175,000. In cmparisn Cheshire West and Wirral have a cmbined ppulatin f 660,000 and have direct access t the majr centres f Chester, Liverpl and Manchester and majr emplyment areas. The Mersey Dee area cmprises nrth east Wales, west Cheshire and the Wirral. Whilst spanning the Wales England bundary, the Mersey Dee area has been recgnised as a single ecnmic sub-regin, with a ppulatin clse t 1 millin. In nrth Wales an industrial cluster fcussed n autmtive, energy, aerspace and advanced manufacturing spreads acrss the brder frm Wales twards Chester. The rle f further educatin institutins like Cleg Cambria in supprting the reginal ecnmy in Nrth east Wales shuld als be nted. In nrth west Wales, the develpment f the Wylfa Newydd nuclear pwer statin n Anglesey and the marine energy ecnmies are als imprtant. The imprtance f the turist ecnmy in nrth Wales (relevant acrss all f Wales) als impacts rail services and presents pprtunities fr better access and further grwth. With the exceptin f the brder areas nrth Wales has struggled t attract and retain higher quality private sectr jbs and relies mre heavily n the public sectr. A number f studies f the Welsh ecnmy have identified tw spatial factrs helping t explain lwer GDP and wages in Wales: The lack f a majr agglmeratin Nrth Wales has n ne large urban centre, with the main ppulatin cncentratin being distributed acrss the castal strip in a series f smaller settlements, generally f less than 30,000 residents. Wales relative peripherality Cntrlling fr ther factrs, a 10% increase in the minimum travel time t Greater Manchester / Merseyside (r Lndn), leads t a 0.6% reductin in firm prductivity. The size f the lcal ppulatin may nt change markedly ver time and it is nt suggested that spatial plicy culd be practically amended t create agglmeratin, hwever relative peripherality may be addressed by transprt imprvements t reduce the lengthy travel times evident between nrth Wales and the majr ecnmic engines f nrth west England, alngside supprting investment in mre lcal initiatives. 23 Stats Wales Balanced GVA B Apprach Accunts/Grss-Value-Added-GDP/gva-by-welshnuts3areas-year The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 27 September 2018

29 Key ecnmic cnsideratins fr Nrth Wales Main Line (NWML)... A majr crss-brder ecnmy with strng interrelatinships between nrth Wales and nrth west England. Newly established rganisatins including the Nrth Wales Ecnmic Ambitin Bard and the English Lcal Ecnmic Partnerships, have generated fcus and impetus t ecnmic develpment thrugh the invlvement f private sectr businesses. Develpment f the Nrthern Pwerhuse cncept in the nrth f England has captured imaginatins and has becme anther expressin f devlved thinking and actin. As a cncept and in strategy it includes nrth Wales. Enhancing direct services t Lndn and ther key ecnmic centres is essential Figure 11 Activity (ppulatin & emplyment) density acrss nrth Wales & nrth west England One f the issues raised by stakehlders in nrth Wales are the pr rail services and jurney times frm key centres in nrth Wales t Manchester, Liverpl and their airprts. These rail jurneys are all slwer than the car leading t lw levels f rail cmmuting and issues f rad cngestin and carbn emissins. This is a result f service and infrastructure cnstraints in bth nrth Wales and nrth west England. The numbers cmmuting crss-brder between nrth Wales and Merseyside and Cheshire are als significant and supprts sme f Wales majr industries. Hwever, these mvements are cmplex with a wide range f rigin and destinatin lcatins. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 28 September 2018

30 Key ecnmic cnsideratins fr Wrexham Merseyside... Strng ecnmic crss-brder interrelatinships between nrth Wales and Nrth west England. A histry f lcal c-peratin, particularly in the Mersey Dee area between Flintshire, Cheshire West & Chester and Wirral. Newly established rganisatins, the Nrth Wales Ecnmic Ambitin Bard and (in England) the Lcal Ecnmic Partnerships have generated fcus and impetus t ecnmic develpment thrugh the invlvement f private sectr businesses. The main areas f deprivatin are alng the Flintshire castline, villages surrunding Wrexham and Birkenhead indicating lw levels f incme and ptentially high levels f ecnmic inactivity. Welsh Gvernment develpment ambitins fr Wrexham There is a clear case fr ecnmic rebalancing as GVA per head in Nrth Wales and The Wirral (2015) lags behind the adjacent area f Cheshire West and Chester. Whilst the Haltn curve is a welcme infrastructure investment which helps t deliver imprved services t Liverpl we need t explre further measures t enhance cnnectivity right acrss nrth Wales and int nrth west England. This builds upn the wrk f Grwth Track 360 and as recently presented in the Wales and West Rail prspectus 24 which represented the views f key stakehlders and businesses such as Nrth Wales and Mersey Dee Alliance, Cheshire and Warringtn LEP as well as lcal authrities in nrth east Wales and nrth west England. Key transprt issues alng the Nrth Wales Main Line (NWML)... High car dependency fr many jurneys leading t cngestin & resulting air quality issue Lw line speeds (LT 90mph) & mdest frequencies impacting services t Manchester, Liverpl, Lndn and Suth Wales; Victrian signalling in sme places) Figure 13 Only 2tph Chester t Crewe has t be addressed by Crewe HS2 hub Limited integratin with ther mdes - especially bus Capacity & peratinal cnstraints at Chester Statin Aligning wrk f the Wales and LNW Netwrk Rail rutes The need t better serve Bangr - as ne f the busiest statins n the NWML (Figure 12) The Welsh Gvernment is als develping prpsals fr further ecnmic develpment in Wrexham. Fr example, the Develpment Bank fr Wales and Transprt fr Wales will bth have a base in the twn. In the private sectr, bth ICE and Indycube have bases in Wrexham Track360.cm/hme/westandwalesrailprspectus/ The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 29 September 2018

31 Figure 12 Demand by statin n NWML 2016/17 Figure 13 NWML line speeds The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 30 September 2018

32 Key transprt issues fr Wrexham Merseyside... High car dependency fr many jurneys leading t cngestin and air quality issues Brderlands line underutilised with lw service frequency; an hurly service is perated during the day reducing t a 2 hurly evening and Sunday service) Jurney times are relatively pr and uncmpetitive with car. Operated with ld pr-quality rlling stck. Smaller statins, pr facilities with minimal car parking facilities. High csts f Brderlands service vs the equivalent Merseyrail service Des nt serve ptential Liverpl r cmmuter market well despite prximity. Overall nt an attractive ffer fr ptential users as a result passenger vlumes are mdest frm many statins. Pst HS2 there are als issues and pprtunities related t bth the cnfiguratin f Crewe statin and the service t Lndn frm Nrth Wales. Nrth Wales needs fast direct services t Lndn as well as t Liverpl, Manchester, Birmingham and Cardiff. The treatment f Cardiff-Manchester service at Crewe is als imprtant there are sme prpsals which wuld deliver a sub-ptimal interchange fr such service with the bulk f intercity services at Crewe. The cnnectin between Chester and Crewe als increases in imprtance as a result f HS2. Grwth Track set ut an ecnmic argument and the need t deliver faster and mre frequent services right acrss the netwrk in nrth Wales and nrth west England. Much f that wrk was utilised in this study. This was further endrsed in the West and Wales Strategic Rail prspectus 26 launched in March 2018 by a brad alliance f stakehlder grups in nrth west England and nrth east Wales. There are particular challenges at Chester statin which acts as a netwrk hub, receiving thrugh and terminating passenger services frm six lines, with destinatins served acrss Nrth and Suth Wales, the Midlands, Nrth West England, and Lndn Eustn. Its current cnfiguratin is likely t cnstrain the ambitin fr mre services thrugh the regin especially the layut at Chester East Junctin. Netwrk Rail have set ut sme ptential enhancements in their Rute Study which merits further early cnsideratin. It is als recgnised that interventins elsewhere n the netwrk as well as timetable mdificatins may be required t cmplement and/r enable these prpsals. 25 Grwth Track West and Wales Strategic Rail Prspectus The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 31 September 2018

33 Figure 14 Grwth Track Aspiratins fr PT Netwrk One majr scheme that ffers particular benefits t nrth Wales is the Manchester Airprt western rail access link. This is a lng-standing prpsitin with a prtected alignment that culd be implemented by 2030 and unlike HS2 Phase 2Bb culd serve the airprt directly. Besides delivering significant reductin in nrth Wales-Manchester Airprt jurney times, it prvides a faster and mre direct rute frm nrth Wales t Manchester city centre and nwards t Leeds via the Ordsall chrd. The develpment f interventins in this part f the regin (airprt western access, NPR, HS2 Phase 2b and variants theref) need t cnsider the need t enhance cnnectivity between nrth Wales/Chester and Manchester airprt, Manchester and nt Leeds. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 32 September 2018

34 4.3 Suth Wales In the suth, Cardiff, with its extensive rail links t surrunding twns, frms a substantial city regin f 1.5M peple as des Swansea t a lesser extent with a wider city regin ppulatin f ver 0.7M. When ne cnsiders the prximity f Bristl/Bath this creates a single ecnmic Severnside subregin with a ppulatin f ver 3 millin peple that has majr agglmeratin ptential acrss multiple industries including financial & prfessinal services, semicnductrs, bitechnlgy, and TV/Film prductin. Imprving the links and reducing jurney times between the Swansea Bay City Regin, the Cardiff Capital City Regin, Bristl, Lndn and Heathrw, as set ut by the Office f the Secretary f State fr Wales 27, will supprt further ecnmic develpment pprtunities. Figure 15 GWML/SWML serves ver 3M frm Bristl t Swansea Key ecnmic cnsideratins fr Suth Wales Main Line (SWML)... Crrelatin between GVA/capita and travel time frm Lndn Research has shwn that spatial factrs bth a lack f ecnmic density and peripherality are factrs which cnstrain ecnmic perfrmance in suth Wales. Increasing ecnmic integratin f the city regins f Swansea, Cardiff and Bristl; with a ppulatin f ver 3 millin peple A string f develpments alng the crridr frm Bristl t Swansea culd be enhanced with imprved rail cnnectivity; further ppulatin grwth in these regins is als putting increasing pressure n the rad netwrk The UK Gvernment is investing in the ecnmic infrastructure f the Swansea, Cardiff and Bristl City Regins but there are als benefits frm achieving greater integratin between the ecnmies and Wales and suth west England. A number f strategic sites are clsely aligned with the rail netwrk and there are pprtunities fr new statins (ntably Cardiff Parkway and Llanwern) t serve these sites, as well as regeneratin pprtunities at existing statins. The rle f Wales leading higher educatin institutins and their impact n the natinal ecnmy shuld als be nted; Cardiff University fr example is ne f the UKs leading research universities being ranked in the tp five in the last frmal research excellence assessment in Its rle was crucial in the recent Cardiff Capital Regin City Deal agreement t develp a cmpund semicnductr cluster 29 in the regin. The Swansea Bay City Regin needs t nurture and grw hi-tech cmpanies smething set ut in the Swansea Bay City Deal 30 and its internet cast theme. Such cmpanies ften need t access The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 33 September 2018

35 a wide range f venture capital funding and attract and retain executive expertise - with much f that surced in Lndn and the suth east f England. Having Swansea 2hr 56 minutes frm Lndn when ther majr cmmercial centres are rughly ne hur r less is a majr disincentive and culd result in cmpanies relcating r nt cnsidering Swansea as a business base. There is anecdtal evidence that this is already happening. Key ecnmic cnsideratins fr Swansea Bay Urban Area... The ppulatin f the Swansea Neath Built Up area is ~300k and the wider city regin 700k Pr cnnectivity within Swansea Bay city regin is inhibiting its ecnmic develpment Ecnmic issues in Swansea Bay are mre acute than fr areas t the east. The GVA/Capita f Swansea itself is nly ~ 72% f the UK average Swansea has struggled t create new private sectr jbs and attracts fewer inbund cmmuters than wuld be expected given its status as the largest urban area in Suth West Wales. The transprt netwrk needs t facilitate lcal cmmuting mvements as well as imprving east-west links t frm Cardiff, Bristl and beynd. Figure 16 Activity (ppulatin and emplyment) density acrss suth Wales Mre bradly acrss the Swansea Bay urban area there are majr new develpments cming frward r in prgress, that have r will have, an impact n transprt prvisin. These include the cntinued impressive grwth f Swansea University with its new Swansea Bay campus n Fabian Way, the regeneratin prject Ced Darcy, the ptential rail test facility in the Dulais valley and nw develpments in the Swansea City Centre. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 34 September 2018

36 Key transprt issues alng Suth Wales Main Line (SWML) Rail jurney times frm west Wales t Bristl/Lndn are relatively pr (Figure 17 ) ; much f the SWML is an 90mph railway r less versus a 125-mph railway east f Bristl; cnstrains demand & encurages mre car usage n already cngested rads, with cnsequential air quality impacts The UK Gvernment s investment in electrificatin t Cardiff and the intrductin f IETs will imprve jurney times between suth Wales and Lndn but the full value f this investment will nt be realised because f line speed and capacity cnstraints. Lw service frequency and vercrwding frm Cardiff t Bristl Temple Meads 2tph Alignment f railway east f Swansea means that rail jurney is relatively indirect when cmpared with rad netwrk. Limited cnnectivity t airprts (Cardiff and Lndn Heathrw) The Severn Tunnel is a cnstraint n bth jurney time reductin and increased service frequencies Mst revenue fr services is t Cardiff and east f Cardiff and des nt match actual passenger demand ( Figure 20 & Figure 21 ) Demand fr rail has grwn strngly ver the last decade althugh grwth may have started t plateau. The quality f rlling stck n sme shrter distance services is pr with an upcming need t replace life expired diesel trains Lack f park and ride pprtunities fr Cardiff, Newprt and Swansea. Figure 17 Rail jurney speeds alng the GWML The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 35 September 2018

37 Figure 18 GWML/SWML links between GVA per capita and rail infrastructure Figure 19 Line speeds n GWML between Paddingtn and Swansea We als knw frm stakehlders that rail patrnage frm the west f the regin (Milfrd Haven, Pembrke and Carmarthen) t the east f the regin (Cardiff, Bristl and Lndn) is lw, partly because f the pr jurney times. Reducing that jurney time is therefre a key aspiratin f Welsh Gvernment nt least t reduce the need t drive; which is increasingly imprtant in the Swansea Bay City Regin given the increasing issues f rad cngestin and its resulting air quality impacts, n the M4 acrss the regin. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 36 September 2018

38 Figure 20 West Wales rail travel demand Figure 21 West Wales rail travel revenue Key transprt issues in Swansea Bay Urban Area Increasing rad cngestin acrss Swansea Bay urban area leading t air quality issues N dedicated lcal cmmuter rail fr Swansea Bay s urban area Infrequent services at smaller statins that shuld be part f Swansea s cmmuter netwrk, fr example: Gwertn t Swansea apprximately 1 train per hur and Skewen/Llansamlet t Swansea 1 train every 2 hurs Limited P&R prvisin acrss the regin The alignment and current frm f the SDL serves neither Swansea r Neath and presents a challenge t develp a cmmercial case t supprt passenger services Passenger vlumes are mdest frm many statins; reflects limits f existing services & is a challenge t cnstructing a financial & ecnmic case fr upgrades Access t majr internatinal gateways is imprtant. S, whilst a fcus n cnnecting Cardiff airprt t supprt the Cardiff and Swansea city regin ecnmies is imprtant, we recgnise that t effectively engage and access internatinal markets (which will increase in imprtance because f Brexit), better access t Heathrw - a gateway t the wrld - is required. The lng verdue direct rail access frm Reading t Heathrw is vitally imprtant in that regard with the ability t perate direct services frm suth Wales and suth west England. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 37 September 2018

39 Figure 22 GVA per capita f selected UK cities Figure 23 Activity (ppulatin and emplyment) density acrss Swansea Bay urban area 31 Cmmuting between Bristl, Newprt and Cardiff is als severely hampered by bth the jurney times and the lack f capacity. The demand fr rail travel between Cardiff and Bristl estimated fr 31 Credit: Duncan Smith, at the Centre fr Advanced Spatial Analysis, University Cllege Lndn Lumin City The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 38 September 2018

40 2043 in Netwrk Rail s rute studies, is similar t that between Manchester and Leeds which has 6tph, cmpared with nly 2tph between Cardiff and Bristl. Leeds-Manchester cnnectivity will be further enhanced thrugh the nging 3bn Trans Pennine Upgrade (TPU) prgramme; mre ambitius 30bn plans have als recently been set ut as part f Transprt fr the Nrth (TfN) s Nrthern Pwerhuse Rail which will deliver high speed cnnectivity right acrss the nrth f England. Given the cmmensurate markets sizes fr rail traffic the Cardiff-Bristl service appears t underprvided when cmpared t Leeds-Manchester. 4.4 Mid Wales Mid Wales, with its university at Aberystwyth and imprtant agricultural and turist ecnmy, shares the same verall requirements as nrth and suth Wales. In additin, the imprtance f links t Birmingham and its airprt via Shrewsbury and the services and capacity f the Marches line als justify further interventins. Similarly, the crucial rle f the Cambrian cast line and Heart f Wales line in linking many smaller cmmunities is imprtant - especially given the expectatins f the Well Being f Future Generatins Act. Sme specific prpsals that need t be tested include: Ensuring Aberystwyth trains via Shrewsbury rute t Birmingham airprt Cnsidering new services, fr example Aberystwyth Shrewsbury Crewe (HS2 hub) Assessing further infrastructure t enhance timetable resilience; additinal statins culd be cnsidered in that cntext Ptential t perate thrugh t Lndn via West Cast Main Line (WCML) (with capacity freed up via HS2) Upgrades in line speeds n the nrth suth, Newprt Crewe/Wrexham/Chester lines Optins fr enhancing cnnectivity between Swansea Bay and Aberystwyth 4.5 New Wales and Brders Railway Services With the recent cnfirmatin that KelisAmey will perate the new Wales and Brders railway franchise and develp the new Suth Wales Metr, we can nw identify new services that will be intrduced in the next few years. This prvides an imprved baseline frm which t make the case fr further services and enhancements. The primary cmmitments t 2024 set ut and relevant t this wrk, include: Chester Liverpl Lime Street 1 tph (currently nne) Cardiff Bridgend 4tph (currently 3tph) Faster Cardiff-Hlyhead services (with additinal lc-hauled services) Wrexham-Bidstn (2tph, with 1 fast limited stp) Cardiff Liverpl 0.5tph New Bangr/Llandudn services t Manchester Airprt and Liverpl The implementatin f tram-train technlgy n the valley lines t Merthyr, Treherbert and Aberdare (Figure 24) The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 39 September 2018

41 4.6 Highways and Cngestin Figure 24 Tram-train fr peratin n valley lines nrth f Cardiff Majr highways investment in the 1960s and 70s created the M4 acrss Suth Wales t England. In the 1980s, the A55 Nrth Wales Expressway prvided a high-quality cnnectin int the natinal mtrway netwrk. Bth rutes are under pressure, with measures (including relief rads) t prvide increased capacity and resilience under cnsideratin. The cmbinatin f shrter distance peak perid rad-based cmmuting travel and lnger distance mvements f bth peple and freight results in increasing levels f cngestin and lnger and less predictable jurney times. The increasing issues f rad cngestin, with cnsequential ecnmic, air quality and health impacts, is a particular challenge in the Swansea Bay City Regin, especially the M4 arund Swansea and Prt Talbt. The Welsh Gvernment recently trialled junctin clsures t address the lw average speeds f mph during peak perids arund Prt Talbt 32. These challenges cllectively require mre imaginative and innvative multi-mdal slutins. Given increasing air quality and envirnmental cncerns, and an increasing awareness that in sme circumstances mre rad space generates mre rad traffic, we recgnise that the strategic expansin f rail capacity nw prvides, in sme cases, a mre attractive and deliverable ptin t enhance accessibility. 4.7 Bus Integratin Whilst this wrk has fcussed predminantly n investment in rail infrastructure, it is clear that t deliver the passenger a mre effective, attractive and affrdable end-t-end jurney, the rle f buses must be addressed. This includes integratin f netwrk planning, fares, custmer infrmatin and ticketing tgether with imprved bus infrastructure (e.g. bus pririty) and t extend the reach f the rail netwrk. This can be very challenging in a de-regulated market made up by a number f different peratrs wh in sme cases cnsider rail services as well as each ther t be cmpetitrs. Fundamental t prgressing this vitally imprtant cmpnent is the need fr apprpriate gvernance arrangements and institutinal capacity t make the changes necessary. 4.8 Active Travel Similarly, whilst nt a fcus f this study, there is a recgnitin and plicy expectatin, that active travel will play an increasingly imprtant rle in end-t-end travel, especially in ur key urban areas. 4.9 Rail Freight Again, whilst nt a fcus fr this study the imprtant rle f rail freight has nt been verlked. In develping ptins fr new services and infrastructure the applicatin f freight paths and capacity was cnsidered and is cnsistent with requirements set ut in NR s Rute Studies The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 40 September 2018

42 4.10 Emerging Technlgies We are als cgnisant f new and develping mbility technlgies; electric vehicles and autnmus vehicles (AV) being perhaps the highest prfile. The latter especially has the ptential t prfundly change the way we mve, extending the ptential f mbility as a service and in s ding have a majr impact n the current mdel f car use and wnership. We are als mindful f histric predictins that new technlgy will replace current transprt mdes. The reality is that as new mdes are develped they fit int (smetimes in a very disruptive way) the existing transprt mdel. A ptential future was set ut in a reprt prduced by the Assciatin f German Transprt Cmpanies, ( in which anticipated a scenari where autnmus vehicles culd prvide a last mile mbility service t augment existing mass transit public transprt systems (bus and rail). As regards transprt planning, whatever the mde r technlgy, the mst efficient means f mving many peple n high demand crridrs is in high quality, high capacity, multi-ccupancy vehicles using segregated rutes (bus, bus rapid transit, light rail r rail). The questin f the pwer surce and whether the vehicle has a driver, is a different questin and has little bearing n the frmer. On the latter there are als emerging develpments in battery and charging technlgies that may well negate the need fr thusands f inefficient lw vltage charging pints with the ptential emergence f battery statins where mdular batteries can be swapped in and ut f vehicles in the time it takes t fill a tank f petrl. Sun Mbility in India 34 are pineering this capability and this is a mbility market that will be disrupted mre significantly by AV. S, whilst we anticipate changes and will keep a watching brief n persnal mbility ptins and technlgy ver the next few years, evidence still supprts mass transit ptins as being the mst efficient and sustainable way f mving peple arund. 33 VDV, Scenaris fr Autnmus Vehicles Opprtunities and Risks fr Transprt Cmpanies, Nv Sun Mbility The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 41 September 2018

43 5 PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS FOR NORTH AND SOUTH WALES 5.1 The Rail Opprtunity With such well-delineated crridrs f travel demand acrss nrth and suth Wales, rail ffers excellent prspects t accmmdate demand frm the grwth f twn and city centres. Sufficient capacity is needed t accmmdate cmmuter grwth acrss city regins, and frequent services between city and twn centres is needed if agglmeratin benefits are t be captured. T a large extent, the path t ecnmic prsperity in Wales is alng an imprved rail netwrk and services. These cnnectivity imperatives can benefit frm investments such as electrificatin f the Cardiff- Lndn line (and nt Swansea), and frm HS2 that will put the nrth Wales gateway at Crewe within 55 minutes f Lndn, but nly if plans fr service enhancement are established acrss the variable gegraphy f rail franchises and Netwrk Rail s devlved Rutes. Given this basis, and the Cabinet Secretary s statement setting ut Welsh Gvernment s verarching scial and ecnmic needs, the emerging strategic pririties fr rail investment in Wales are: Address the legacy f underspend n rail infrastructure in Wales and the cnsequential limitatins and perfrmance prblem f rail services in Wales. Ensure the success f the new Wales & Brders and ther crss-brder rail services. Frequent direct and faster lnger-distance rail cnnectins between the main Welsh twns and cities and Bristl, Lndn, Manchester, Liverpl, Birmingham, Leeds, Glasgw this is especially an issue fr Cardiff which needs better cnnectivity with majr urban areas in the east f England and Sctland. In particular a need t maximise the benefits f the delayed and curtailed Great Western electrificatin prject and its new train fleet and maximising the ptential benefits (via Phase 1 and 2a including Crewe Hub) and ffset the negative cnsequences f HS2. Investment in city regin rail services and infrastructure t supprt the grwth f the majr urban ecnmies in Wales and crss-brder where the ecnmic gegraphy dictates. Rail cnnectivity t airprts t supprt internatinal trade and inward investment and turism Manchester and Liverpl fr nrth Wales; Birmingham fr mid Wales; Heathrw and Cardiff airprt fr suth Wales. Nrth-suth cnnectivity fr Wales, via the Chester - Wrexham Shrewsbury Newprt railway in jurney times that cannt be matched by rad-based travel, including cnsideratin f bth lnger distance services with fewer stps and lcal all-stp cmmuter services. Further testing f ptins fr imprving nrth-suth links in the west f the cuntry. Meeting trans-eurpean netwrk standards. Meeting the wider well-being, envirnmental and balanced ecnmic develpment bjectives f the Welsh and UK Gvernments The rail interventins prpsed begin t address these cnsideratins. They are set ut in summary belw and explred in mre detail in tw PSOCs: Nrth Wales Nrth Wales Main Line Wrexham-Merseyside (Brderlands line) Suth Wales Suth Wales Main Line Swansea Bay Urban Area Other Prgramme Strategic Outline Case schemes can be develped t extend this prgramme. 5.2 Estimated Ecnmic Benefits The fllwing sectin sets ut a range f interventins acrss the fur wrkstreams. These have been develped using standard UK and Welsh Gvernment majr scheme transprt appraisal guidelines; and subject t a methdlgy t estimate their direct user benefits and impact n the wider ecnmy. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 42 September 2018

44 Fr the majr schemes fr the SWML and NWML a pragmatic analysis was undertaken t prvide a baseline ecnmic impact. In additin, a range f further and mre ambitius interventins were als mdelled and quantified separately. In respect f agglmeratin a mre cautius apprach has been taken. Fr example, the interventins set ut are primarily abut imprving inter-city r inter-reginal cnnectivity whereas the agglmeratin methdlgy used nly captures prductivity benefits assciated with intra-city r intra-reginal agglmeratin effects. There is therefre scpe t identify and quantify further benefits. Benefits identified range frm 2.1~2.6bn as shwn belw (as per guidelines the ecnmic case L1 and agglmeratin impacts are expressed in Present Value 2010 terms and in 2010 prices, strategic reginal GVA impacts are annual impacts expressed in 2015 prices; the differences in ttals are due t runding subrdinate values t nearest 10m): Table 2 Summary f ecnmic benefits by wrkstream Transprt User and ther L1 Benefits/Disbenefits m NWML Wrexham- Mersey SWML Swansea Bay Ttal ,910 Agglmeratin Effects m Ttal 930* ,120 Jbs ,145 Reginal GVA (per annum) Further Ptential Level 1 Impacts m 20 NA 490 NA 510 Further ptential agglmeratin benefits m < 10 NA 30 NA 40 Ttal 20 NA 520 NA 540 Further Jbs 125 NA 165 NA 290 Further Reginal GVA 4 NA 7 NA 11 Nte: * sme ttals dn t match because f runding t nearest 10m The ttal capital cst estimates fr all the schemes mdelled is circa 2,000m (2018 prices); these estimates are high level at this stage and d nt include items like land acquisitin, planning, enabling wrks, etc. but d include ptimisatin bias. Nte that due t the absence f firm capital and revenue cst infrmatin at this stage f develpment, and the strategic fcus f the PSOCs, it is nt apprpriate r practical t develp traditinal benefit t cst rati (BCR) utputs as measures f value fr mney. Further wrk is als required t disaggregate these high-level figures t assess and priritise thse interventins which maximise benefits and reduce csts. The fllwing sectin sets ut the visin and interventins mdelled fr each PSOC wrkstream t calculate the ecnmic benefits. Ptential further interventins that culd increase the benefits have als been set ut. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 43 September 2018

45 5.3 Nrth Wales Main Line Nrth Wales Main Line: Visin and Objectives Visin: Building upn the wrk f Grwth Track 360 t supprt inclusive and balanced ecnmic grwth in Wales and nrth west England, by prviding faster and mre frequent services thrugh investment in the nrth Wales cast line and by maximising the benefits f HS2. Objectives: T deliver n this visin fr nrth Wales interventins will need t: 1. Widen access t emplyment acrss nrth Wales, Cheshire and Liverpl by imprving rail services. 2. Develp a service pattern (jurney time and frequency) that supprts Grwth Track 360 s ambitins: a. Jurney times f less than ne hur between the main centres f Hlyhead and Chester; and Llandudn and Crewe b. Frequency dubling between Hlyhead and Lndn; and Hlyhead t Cardiff/Birmingham c. Frequency dubling between the nrth Wales cast and Manchester Airprt d. At least ne train per hur frm the nrth Wales cast and Wrexham t Liverpl 3. Enhance rail cnnectivity frm nrth Wales t internatinal gateways at Manchester and Liverpl airprts. 4. Prmte scial inclusin by imprving lcal access t emplyment, services & key centres. 5. Prvide a viable public transprt alternative t private car jurneys, fr all jurney purpses including turism. 6. Prvide sufficient capacity and imprve rail netwrk resilience in nrth Wales t accmmdate future demand. 7. Prmte interventins that integrate with HS2 and the majr develpments at Crewe and Chester statins t supprt crss-brder passenger jurney requirements 8. Reduce the envirnmental impact f transprt, especially carbn emissins & air quality. 9. Imprve rail netwrk efficiency t allw a lwer future subsidy requirement per passenger. Nrth Wales Main Line (NWML): Pssible interventins (Figure 25) The interventins mdelled t estimate the transprt and wider ecnmic benefits are: Mdernisatin f the NWML frm Crewe t Hlyhead (inc. re-signalling, line speed upgrades and f electrificatin); retentin f an hurly freight path alng the whle rute Faster lng-distance services t Manchester, Manchester Airprt, Liverpl & Cardiff and fewer stps ffering best jurney times fr selected stp services f: Llandudn t Crewe 60 mins Hlyhead t Chester 60 mins West Cast Main Line (WCML) t cntinue t serve Chester and nrth Wales New HS2 (hauled r bi-mde) t Bangr/Hlyhead via Crewe and Chester New lcal all stp cmmuter services in nrth east and nrth west Wales (Figure 26) The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 44 September 2018

46 Duble track Wrexham-Chester supprting hurly extensin f Merseyrail services On-track capacity and peratinal enhancements at Chester statin Selected new statins acrss the netwrk (fr example at Gaerwen, Hlywell Junctin and Suth Cheshire Parkway) An increase in headline frequency t five per hur east f Rhyl Sufficient capacity in central Liverpl and Manchester t supprt these enhancements In parallel further bus integratin measures Figure 25 Illustratin f Nrth Wales Rail Visin The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 45 September 2018

47 Figure 26 Ptential nrth Wales service patterns There are further interventins that culd be cnsidered in future which wuld deliver further ecnmic benefits but may be assciated with significant additinal capital csts, these include: Full electrificatin alng the entire Nrth Wales Main Line (NWML) Operating f classic cmpatible HS2 services (withut need fr lc haul) Manchester Airprt western rail access and extensin f trans Pennine services t nrth Wales Further statins New rute (e.g. Bangr t Caernarfn) The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 46 September 2018

48 5.4 Wrexham Merseyside Wrexham Merseyside: Visin and Objectives Visin: Supprting ecnmic grwth and imprving cnnectivity acrss the nrth Wales and Merseyside area by enhancing the Brderlands rail line t deliver faster, mre frequent, and better integrated services. Objectives: T deliver n this visin fr the Wrexham Merseyside area interventins will need t: 1. Widen access t emplyment acrss nrth Wales, Cheshire, Liverpl and Manchester by imprving rail services. 2. Prvide a frequent and well-cnnected transprt system that supprts the ecnmic aspiratins f the nrth Wales and Mersey Dee regins. 3. Prmte scial inclusin by imprving lcal access t emplyment, services and key centres. 4. Maximise the ptential fr statins t accelerate urban regeneratin and majr develpment site delivery. 5. Increase the prprtin f jurneys in nrth east Wales undertaken by rail. 6. Cntribute t develping a nrth Wales Metr including imprvements t multi-mdal interchanges. 7. Reduce the envirnmental impact f transprt, especially carbn emissins & air quality. 8. Imprve rail netwrk efficiency t allw a lwer future subsidy requirement per passenger. Wrexham Merseyside: Pssible interventins (Figure 25 ) The interventins mdelled t estimate the transprt and wider ecnmic benefits are: Full peratinal integratin f the Wrexham-Bidstn service with Merseyrail Electrics, permitting thrugh running t central Liverpl with 4tph A frequency f fur trains per hur is assumed, the same as mst ther branches f Merseyrail Electrics Operatin using new class 777 units, and either full / partial electrificatin and / r battery pwer A new statin at Deeside Park and majr imprvements at Shttn interchange Park & ride facilities are assumed fr Heswall and Buckley statins alng with bus integratin at several statins alng the line Line speed imprvements are als assumed, mainly fcussed n the English part f the rute, where higher running speeds are pssible. There are further interventins that culd be cnsidered in future which wuld deliver further ecnmic benefits but may be assciated with significant additinal capital csts, these include: Operating f tram-train t enable extensin (fr example t Wirral Waters, t Mld f thrugh Deeside Industrial estate t Chester) A secnd tier f ptential new statins has als been identified sme r all f which may be brught frward ver the lnger term The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 47 September 2018

49 5.5 Suth Wales & Great Western Mainline Suth Wales Main Line: Visin and Objectives Visin: Supprting inclusive and balanced ecnmic grwth in Wales and suth west England by prviding faster and mre frequent services thrugh investment in the Great Western rail crridr. Objectives: T deliver n this visin fr the Suth Wales Main Line interventins will need t: 1. Reduce rail jurney times between West Wales and Lndn, twards targets f: a. 90 minutes between Cardiff and Lndn Paddingtn b. 30 minutes between Cardiff and Bristl Temple Meads c. 30 minutes between Swansea and Cardiff 2. Increase service frequencies between suth west Wales and Lndn; Cardiff and Bristl Temple Meads; and Swansea and Cardiff. 3. Prvide sufficient capacity and imprve rail netwrk resilience between Cardiff and Bristl t accmmdate future passenger and freight demand. 4. Enhance rail cnnectivity t internatinal gateways/airprts and Enterprise Znes 5. Imprve Park and Ride prvisin fr accessing the Suth Wales Main Line and reduce reliance n the M4 crridr 6. Imprve integratin between main line rail and the wider transprt netwrk, especially the develping suth Wales and Bristl Metr systems. 7. Maximise the ptential fr statins t accelerate urban regeneratin and majr develpment site delivery. 8. Increase the number f trips made by public transprt, fcusing n cmmuter trips. 9. Reduce the envirnmental impact f transprt, especially carbn emissins & air quality. 10. Imprve rail netwrk efficiency t allw a lwer future subsidy requirement per passenger. Suth Wales Main Line (SWML): Ptential Interventins ( Figure 27 ) The interventins mdelled t estimate the transprt and wider ecnmic benefits were based n: The upgraded Wales and Brders rail services fr which the fllwing frequency and statin stps are prpsed t be perated with 100mph capable rlling stck: One train per hur Birmingham/nrth east England t Cardiff calling nly at Newprt n the SWML One train per hur Nttingham t Cardiff One train per hur Glucester t Cardiff calling at lcal statins including new statins at Cardiff Parkway and Rver Way n the SWML One train per hur Abergavenny t Cardiff Tw trains per hur Manchester t Cardiff One train per hur Hlyhead/Liverpl t Cardiff Subject t further infrastructure interventins, tw trains per hur Ebbw Vale t Maesteg and tw trains frm Ebbw Valley t Newprt Creatin f an upgraded SWML enabling imprvements in jurney times frm Severn Tunnel Junctin t Swansea thrugh upgraded rail infrastructure and faster linespeeds twards a 100mph railway (and higher where feasible) that enables the benefits f new trains t be realised. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 48 September 2018

50 Faster lng-distance services ffering jurney times fr selected stp services as shwn in Table 4. Mre frequent Suth Wales Main Line services based n a standard pattern (Figure 28): Tw Lndn Cardiff services with current stpping pattern and the ther calling at a new Cardiff Parkway statin Tw Lndn Swansea services with bth trains nly calling at Reading, Bristl Parkway, Newprt frm where ne train wuld call nly at Cardiff Central and Swansea whilst the ther train wuld serve lcal destinatins. Tw Bristl Temple Meads Swansea services. One limited stp service wuld stp at principal statins whilst the ther wuld serve all lcal statins t Swansea Tw Bristl Temple Meads Cardiff services serving lcal statins with ne train each calling at new statins at Rver Way and Cardiff Parkway. New Statins (subject t further develpment) at Magr, Llanwern, Cardiff Parkway, Rver Way, Miskin-Junctin 34, Brackla, Cckett and St Clears. Enhanced transprt interchange at Llansamlet. Figure 27 Suth Wales Main Line the ambitin f a 100-mph railway The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 49 September 2018

51 Figure 28 Ptential "balanced" SWML service pattern Table 3 Ptential SWML service frequencies Table 4 Ptential SWML jurney times fr a range f service scenaris Rute Existing Pst IEP (estimated) Cncept Future Timetable (Balanced) Cncept Future Timetable & Linespeed Enhancements Cncept Future Timetable & Linespeed Enhancements & Electrificatin t Swansea Cardiff Paddingtn Cardiff Bristl TM Swansea Cardiff Swansea Paddingtn Swansea Bristl TM Carmarthen Paddingtn 1h 59m 1h 51m 1h 47m 1h 43m 1h 43m 48m 48m 43m 39m 39m 52m 52m 45m 42m 38m 2h 56m 2h 48m 2h 35m 2h 28m 2h 24m 1h 49m 1h 55m 1h 40m 1h 34m 1hr 29m 3h 55m 3h 47m 3h 34m 3h 27m 3hr 22m There are further interventins nt assessed in the baseline ecnmic analysis that culd be cnsidered subject t further develpment and stakehlder discussins that can imprve jurney The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 50 September 2018

52 times further. These wuld als deliver additinal ecnmic benefits as well as ptential significant additinal capital csts, these include: Further jurney time reductins thrugh line speed upgrades t ver 100mph thrughut the SWML (including west f Swansea) and which may require significant new alignment ptins t be cnsidered (fr example use f sme f Swansea District Line and new links t the current main line - see belw) Electrificatin t Swansea t be re-cnsidered in this cntext f a mre frequent timetable and less cnstrained linespeed Further line speed upgrades n entire GWML t Lndn t achieve 140mph running (which the new IET trains are capable f) which may require new infrastructure and/r new signalling capabilities Develpment f a West Wales/Swansea/Neath Parkway statin n the Swansea District Line (SDL) perhaps at Llandarcy (inc additinal services) and/r rute/statin alternatives this may need a link between SDL and the main line near Llansamlet which culd deliver further jurney time reductins t Swansea and west Wales; fr example, ruting an additinal Lndn service t Carmarthen and West Wales via a new Parkway withut stpping at Swansea High Street r Neath wuld enable even shrter jurney times t Carmarthen and West Wales Optins t reduce jurney times t Llanelli, Carmarthen and West Wales by using a cmbinatin f new alignment ptins and reduced stps With further enhancement measures in Cardiff (eg at Cardiff West junctin and Rhse Statin) and subject t peratinal cnsideratins, it may be pssible t extend sme services frm the east f Cardiff via the Vale f Glamrgan (VG) line t Barry and Cardiff Airprt (Rhse) In future, measures t address the jurney time and frequency cnstraints f the Severn Tunnel will need t be cnsidered The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 51 September 2018

53 5.6 Swansea Bay Urban Area Swansea Bay Urban Area: Visin and Objectives Visin: Accelerating ecnmic grwth acrss the Swansea Bay City Regin, expanding labur market catchments, and encuraging investment by transfrming the regin s rail netwrk. Objectives: T deliver n this visin fr Swansea Bay interventins will need t: 1. Reduce jurney times between key ppulatin centres including Swansea, Neath, Prt Talbt, Llanelli, Carmarthen, Pembrke and Milfrd Haven. 2. Increase service frequencies Swansea Bay Urban Area: Ptential Interventins (Figure 29 ) The interventins mdelled t estimate the transprt and wider ecnmic benefits are: A new dedicated Swansea Bay Urban Area cmmuter rail netwrk serving a range f new and existing statins, cnsisting f tw initial rutes ptentially perated using the same tram-train rlling stck that will be prcured fr the Suth Wales Metr. a. fr lcal statins n the main line between Carmarthen and Prt Talbt, especially during peak perids b. n the Heart f Wales line t serve cmmuters int Swansea and beynd c. acrss suth west Wales t imprve suitability fr daily cmmuting 3. Imprve reginal transprt accessibility thrugh widening the spatial reach f the rail netwrk and services. 4. Imprve Park and Ride prvisin fr access t the Swansea Bay regin. 5. Prvide a viable public transprt alternative t the cngested M4/A48 crridr 6. Cntribute t develping a Swansea Bay Urban Area Metr including imprvements t multi-mdal interchanges. 7. Maximise the ptential fr statins t accelerate urban regeneratin and majr develpment site delivery. 8. Increase the number f trips made by public transprt, fcusing particularly n cmmuter trips. 9. Reduce the envirnmental impact f transprt, especially carbn emissins & air quality 10. Imprve rail netwrk efficiency t allw a lwer future subsidy requirement per passenger A Llanelli Pntarddulais Swansea Metr service prviding three trains an hur. The rute wuld call at the fllwing statins where * signifies new statins: Llanelli, Llangennech, Bynea, Pntarddulais, Penllegaer*, Felindre*, Mrristn*, Llansamlet, Winch Wen*, Landre* and Swansea. In rder t perate this rute a new sectin f line wuld be required t the east f Llansamlet statin t cnnect the SDL and the main line. A Prt Talbt Neath - Swansea Metr service prviding tw trains an hur. The rute wuld call at the fllwing statins where * signifies new statins: Prt Talbt, Baglan, Britn Ferry, Neath, Skewen, Llansamlet, Winch Wen*, Landre* and Swansea. The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 52 September 2018

54 Figure 29 Illustratin f a ptential rail fundatin fr a Swansea Bay Metr In develping prpsals fr a Swansea Metr, it will als be necessary t cnsider: Park and Ride prvisin at statins such as Llansamlet and Felindre Integratin measures fr active travel and bus rutes There are als further interventins (als shwn in Figure 29) that culd be cnsidered in future which wuld deliver further ecnmic benefits but may be assciated with significant additinal capital csts, these include: Mre ambitius and lnger term New extensin suth f High Street in Swansea city centre t Mumbles using n street capability f tram-trains Use f the freight lines suth f Llandarcy thrugh t Swansea University s Bay campus, SA1 and n-street t High street. This wuld enable a tram-train service t perate frm Swansea t Neath via SA1 Dependant n land use changes (especially husing allcatin) service extensins (in part using existing freight lines) culd be cnsidered n the Neath and Dulais valleys and frm Pntarddulais t Ammanfrd and thrugh t the Amman valley The Rail Netwrk in Wales - The Case fr Investment Page 53 September 2018