Review of the previous CARSAMMA and Scrutiny Group meetings Conclusions and Recommendations

Transcription

1 Internatinal Civil Aviatin Organizatin GTE/17-WP/02 Seventeenth Meeting f the GREPECAS 16/10/17 Scrutiny Wrking Grup (GTE/17) Lima, Peru, 30 Octber t 03 Nvember 2017 Agenda Item 1: Review f the previus CARSAMMA and Scrutiny Grup meetings Cnclusins and Recmmendatins a) Results n 2016 safety assessment (CRM) in Reduced Vertical Separatin Minimum (RVSM) airspace VERTICAL COLLISION RISK (CRM) FOR THE YEAR 2016 IN THE CAR/SAM REGIONS (Presented by CARSAMMA) SUMMARY This wrking paper presents a summary f the calculatin f the vertical cllisin risk in CAR/SAM Regins in 2016 using the CRM methdlgy. REFERENCES: ICAO Dc 9574-AN/934, Third Editin ICAO Dc 9937-AN/477, First Editin Aircraft Mvements in the RVSM airspace in Reprt f Large Height Deviatins (LHD) in ICAO strategic bjectives: A - Safety 1. Backgrund 1.1 The purpse f this wrk is t shw that the safety criteria defined in ICAO Dc 9574 and Dc cntinues t be met in the RVSM airspace f the CAR/SAM Regins. 1.2 This dcument reprts n the analysis f the vertical cllisin risk in RVSM airspace in 2016 in the Flight Infrmatin Regins (FIR) f the Caribbean and Suth America. Fr this wrk, the Vertical Cllisin Risk Mdel (CRM) calculatin methdlgy was used, as recmmended by ICAO in RVSM airspace. 2. Analysis 2.1 This reprt presents the results f the safety assessment in the year 2016 in RVSM airspace f the Caribbean and Suth America (CAR/SAM). This step crrespnds t the cntinuatin f the implementatin strategy f RVSM.

2 GTE/17-WP/ Accrding t Dc and Dc. 9937, the assessment must be made t ensure that peratins in RVSM airspace nt induce an increase in the risk f cllisin such that the ttal vertical risk des nt exceed safety targets defined. 2.3 Fr the quantitative assessment, the Reich Vertical Cllisin Risk Mdel is used, as recmmended by ICAO. This is a mdel f intensive mathematical fundatins that, after analysing aircraft mvements (spreadsheets cntaining data n flights cnducted in RVSM airspace), calculates the target level f safety (TLS) f the Flight Regin under study. Several calculatin tls and databases are used fr the varius calculatins during the prcess, as well as several hurs f analysis by experts. 2.4 This wrking paper cntains a summary f the results f the assessment f cntinuing safety f the 300 m (1000 ft) reduced vertical separatin minimum in Caribbean and Suth American airspace in The RVSM safety assessment cvers a perid f twelve cnsecutive mnths. 2.6 Special attentin shuld be paid t ensure that: All aircraft perating in reduced vertical separatin minimum airspace are RVSM-certified; The aircraft certificatin is current; The target level f safety (TLS) f 5 x 10-9 mrtal accidents per flight hur (fr tracking height-keeping in a representative sample f aircraft) cntinues t be met; The use f RVSM des nt increase the level f risk due t peratinal errrs and cntingency prcedures; There is evidence f aircraft altimetry system (ASE) stability; The intrductin f RVSM des nt increase the level f risk due t peratinal errrs and flight cntingencies, in accrdance with a predefined level f statistical cnfidence; Additinal effective safety measures are adpted t reduce the cllisin risk and t meet the safety targets due t peratinal errrs and cntingency prcedures; There is evidence f stability f the altimetry system errr (ASE); Air traffic cntrl prcedures cntinue t be effective. 3. CAR/SAM Airspace 3.1 The airspace f the CAR/SAM Regins is cmpsed f 34 Flight Infrmatin Regins (FIR) cnsisting f the fllwing States: Antigua and Barbuda, Netherlands Antilles, Argentina, Barbads, Belize, Blivia, Brazil, Chile, Clmbia, Csta Rica, Cuba, El Salvadr, Ecuadr, Granada, Guadelupe, Guatemala, Guyana, French Guiana, Haiti, Hnduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Nevis, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Dminican Republic, St. Barthelemy, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tbag, Uruguay and Venezuela.

3 - 3 - GTE/17-WP/ Each part f the airspace was treated as an islated system, with its wn statistical parameters. 3.3 Cllect f Data Traffic Mvement - The sample used t evaluate the frequency f passage and physical and dynamic parameters f typical aircraft fr assessing the risk f cllisin, was cllected in the perid between 01 and 31 December 2016, f the 32 FIRs f the CAR/SAM Regins. In these shipments data, in terms f flight hurs f the cllected samples there were received 1,160, flight hurs f all FIR mentined, with 329, hurs f CAR Regin (28.36%) and 831, hurs f SAM Regin (71.64%). As in previus years, much f the data received frm sme States culd nt be explited in CRM fr varius reasns, including errrs in the times f entry and exit RVSM space (less than r equal time input utput), lack f cmplete infrmatin t identify and lcate fixed rutes and ntificatin, r even data sent beynd the deadline. Hwever, all data sent was explited in anther prduct f CARSAMMA, which is the Audit f RVSM airspace. 3.4 As t the ccurrence f vertical deviatins (LHDs) reprted in the CAR/SAM Regins, CARSAMMA received a ttal f 1,280 LHDs in Fllwing the analysis and validatin carried ut thrugh telecnferences with representatives f the ICAO Lima and Mexic Offices, the FIRs invlved, IATA and CARSAMMA, 1,065 f these LHD were cnsidered valid in the CAR/SAM Regins. 3.5 As during the last RMA Crdinatin Grup meeting (RMACG12), held in May 2017 in Salvadr - Brazil, it was agreed that risk factrs shuld nt be cnsidered fr LHDs whse causes invlve the Human Factr, since they wuld be evaluated in the CARSAMMA Safety Management Systems analysis. Therefre, the 1,024 LHDs that received in the telecnferences the "E1" r "E2" cde will nt be cnsidered in this study. 3.6 Therefre and applying the crrect guidelines amng the RMAs, the ttal LHD analyzed by the CRM parameters is 58 LHD, such being: Cde A B C D F G H I J L LHD The fllwing table describes the distributin f LHD per mnth: MONTH LHD Quantity Ttal Duratin (sec.) Average Duratin (sec.) Average Risk Greater Risk LHD Sequence January February March April , 344, 352, 433 May , 501, 512,548 June July , 676 August , 790, 859 September

4 GTE/17-WP/ MONTH LHD Quantity Ttal Duratin (sec.) Average Duratin (sec.) Average Risk Greater Risk LHD Sequence Octber Nvember December Ttal Aircraft mvement data cllectin Table The sample data fr estimating the pass frequency and the physical parameters, as well as the dynamics f a typical aircraft fr the assessment f the vertical cllisin risk were cllected frm 1 t 31 December Aircraft mvement data received frm the 32 CAR/SAM FIRs was prcessed and used t assess RVSM airspace safety, as recmmended by ICAO. The number f flight hurs used is shwn in Table 2. Regin Flight hurs % CAR 329, % SAM 831, % CAR/SAM 1,160, % Table Upn receiving the aircraft mvement data, CARSAMMA prceeded t filter and prcess the data. Table 3 belw shws the results, and lists the aircraft that flew acrss the CAR/SAM FIRs, with their dimensins and percentage f flight hurs, including a typical aerplane, used as a dimensin f the Vertical Risk Calculatin Mdel. ACFT type Length Wingspan Height λx λy λz Number f flights % f flights A , % B , % E , % A , % B , % B , % A , % A , % B , % B77W , % B , % B , % B , % A , % B , %

5 - 5 - GTE/17-WP/02 ACFT type Length Wingspan Height λx λy λz Number f flights % f flights B , % A , % B , % MD , % B , % B77L , % B % B % Typical Acft , % Table 3 Aircraft that flew RVSM in the CAR/SAM FIR (Dimensin measurements are expressed in nautical miles) 5. Cllisin risk safety assessment (CRM) 5.1 This sectin analyses the results f the safety assessment f RVSM airspace in the CAR/SAM FIR. 5.2 The internatinally accepted cllisin risk methdlgy (CRM) has been used fr the safety assessment f RVSM airspace in the Caribbean and Suth American. 5.3 Estimates f CRM parameter: Figure 1 General Frmula f the REICH Cllisin Risk Mdel The material and quantity f the surce used fr estimating the values f each parameter f the internatinally accepted Cllisin Risk Mdel (CRM) used fr assessing the safety f the RVSM airspace are summarised in Table 4. Parameter Descriptin Value λx Mean length f the aircraft sample nm λy Mean extent f the aircraft sample nm λz Mean height f the aircraft sample nm Mean speed f the aircraft sample (mdule) kt/h

6 GTE/17-WP/ Parameter Descriptin Value Pz(0) Relative same-directin speed f the aircraft sample (mdule) Mean speed relative t the transverse apprach f the aircraft sample (mdule) Mean relative vertical speed during lss f vertical separatin f the aircraft sample (mdule) Prbability that tw aircraft with the same nminal level verlap laterally in the aircraft sample Table 4 CRM parameter estimates kt/h 13 kts 1.5 kts Demnstratin f the technical feasibility f RVSM in the CAR/SAM Regins This invlves assessing the results f the values f the parameters f the REICH Cllisin Risk Mdel: Pass frequency Nx; Prbability f vertical verlap Pz (1000); and Prbability f lateral verlap Py (0). T demnstrate this, the fllwing bjectives were established: Generate cnfidence in the cmpliance with the technical TLS; and Certify ASE stability. 5.5 System perfrmance specificatins Pass frequency, Nx -This is the parameter f the airspace where the aircraft is expsed t the vertical cllisin risk. The equivalent pass frequency was estimated taking int accunt aircraft flying in the same directin and in ppsite directins, as shwn in Table 5. Pass frequency Same directin Oppsite directin Equivalent Flight time (h) CAR/SAM ,160, Table 5 Pass frequency Values are related t the CAR/SAM airspace system. It shuld be nted that the pass frequency shwn in Table 4 ( ) was calculated n the basis f ttal filtered flight hurs in the 32 CAR/SAM FIR. The estimated value f Pz (1000) used in ur calculatins was 2.46 x 10-8.

7 - 7 - GTE/17-WP/ Estimating the cllisin risk Table 6 cntains the sets f physical and dynamic parameters estimated in the REICH Cllisin Risk Mdel, as well as the fllw-up t the main parameters fr the CAR/SAM FIRs. All parameters were determined based n the airspace f each regin being cnsidered as an islated system. Ez (same) ΔV (same) Ez (0p) ΔV (p) Ez (crss) V CAR/SAM Table 6 Physical and dynamic parameters 6. Cnclusins f the safety assessment (CRM) 6.1 Cllisin Risk - The estimated values f the Operatinal Errr are presented in Table 7, which result frm prcessing all LHD received and validated in 2016, plus the files cntaining aircraft mvements in RVSM airspace, as prcessed in the specific CRM sftware. Mnth Technical Errr Operatinal Errr Risk January x x x 10-9 February x x x 10-9 March x x x 10-9 April x x x 10-9 May x x x 10-9 June x x x 10-9 July x x x 10-9 August x x x 10-9 September x x x 10-9 Octber x x x 10-9 Nvember x x x 10-9 December x x x 10-9 Table 7 - Safety Assessment

8 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nv 16 Dec 16 GTE/17-WP/ Vertical Cllisin Risk CAR/SAM FIR TLS Technical TLS Risk Graph 2 - Vertical Cllisin Risk 6.2 The technical errr f the CAR/SAM FIR satisfies the gal that states that it shuld nt exceed 2.5 x 10-9 fatal accidents per flight hur due t lss f standard vertical separatin f 1000 ft and all ther causes. The peratinal risk des nt have a predetermined limit accrding t ICAO Dc In the case f the CAR/SAM Regins, the estimated medium risk is 1.22 x 10-9 belw the TLS, which is 5.0 x CAR/SAM RVSM airspace Estimated flight hurs = 1,160, hurs Surce f Risk Estimated Risk TLS Remarks Technical Errr x x 10-9 Belw Operatinal Errr x Risk x x 10-9 Belw 7. Suggested actin: 7.1 The Meeting is invited t: Table 8 a) nte and review the cntents f this wrking paper; and b) share experiences and express pinins cncerning CARSAMMA s actins in this matter. - END -