Sixteenth Scrutiny Working Group Meeting (GTE/16) Mexico City, Mexico, 5 9 September 2016

Transcription

1 Sixteenth Scrutiny Wrking Grup Meeting (GTE/16) Mexic City, Mexic, 5 9 September /08/16 Agenda Item 1: Review f Previus CARSAMMA and Scrutiny Grup Meeting Cnclusins and Recmmendatins VERTICAL COLLISION RISK (CRM) IN 2015 FOR THE CAR/SAM REGIONS (Presented by CARSAMMA) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Wrking Paper presents a summary f the calculatin f the vertical cllisin risk in CAR/SAM Flight Infrmatin Regins (FIRs) in 2015 using the CRM methdlgy Actin: Suggested actins in sectin 13 Strategic Objectives: Safety Air Navigatin Capacity and Efficiency References: ICAO Dc 9574 Manual n a 300 m (1 000 ft) Vertical Separatin Minimum Between FL 290 and FL 410 Inclusive AN/934, Third Editin 2012 ICAO Dc 9937 Operating Prcedures and Practices fr Reginal Mnitring Agencies in Relatin t the Use f a 300 m (1 000 ft) Vertical Separatin Minimum Between FL 290 and FL 410 Inclusive AN/477, First Editin 2012 Aircraft mvements in RVSM airspace in 2015 Reprt f Large Height Deviatins (LHD) in Intrductin 1.1 The purpse f this paper is t shw that safety criteria defined in the ICAO Dc 9574 cntinue t be met in the RVSM airspace f the CAR/SAM Regins. 1.2 This dcument reprts n the analysis f the vertical cllisin risk in Reduced Vertical Separatin Minimum (RVSM) airspace in 2015 in the Caribbean and Suth America FIRs. Fr this wrk, the vertical Cllisin Risk Mdel (CRM) calculatin methdlgy was used, as recmmended by ICAO in RVSM airspace.

2 2 2. Discussin 2.1 This reprt presents the results f safety assessment in 2015 in RVSM airspace f the CAR/SAM Regins. This step crrespnds t the cntinuatin f the RVSM implementatin strategy. 2.2 In accrdance with Dc 9574 and Dc 9937, the assessment must be made t ensure that peratins in RVSM airspace nt induce an increase in the risk f cllisin such that the ttal vertical risk des nt exceed Target level f safety (TLS) defined. 2.3 Fr the quantitative assessment, the REICH vertical cllisin risk mdel is used, as recmmended by ICAO. This is a mdel f intensive mathematical fundatins that, after analysing aircraft mvements (spreadsheets cntaining data n flights cnducted in RVSM airspace), calculates the Target Level f Safety (TLS) f the flight regin under study. Several calculatin tls and databases are used fr the varius calculatins during the prcess, as well as several hurs f analysis by experts. 2.4 This paper cntains a summary f the assessment results f cntinuing safety f the 300m (1000 ft) reduced vertical separatin minimum in Caribbean and Suth American airspace in The RVSM safety assessment cvers a perid f twelve cnsecutive mnths. 2.6 Special attentin shuld be paid t ensure that: All aircraft perating in reduced vertical separatin minimum airspace are RVSM certified The aircraft certificatin is current The TLS f 5 x 10 9 mrtal accidents per flight hur (fr tracking height keeping in a representative sample f aircraft) cntinues t be met The use f RVSM des nt increase the level f risk due t peratinal errrs and cntingency prcedures There is evidence f aircraft Altimetry System Errr (ASE) stability The intrductin f RVSM des nt increase the level f risk due t peratinal errrs and flight cntingencies, in accrdance with a predefined level f statistical cnfidence Additinal effective safety measures are adpted t reduce the cllisin risk and t meet the safety targets due t peratinal errrs and cntingency prcedures Air traffic cntrl prcedures cntinue t be effective

3 3 3. CAR/SAM airspace 3.1 The airspace f the CAR/SAM Regins is cmpsed by 34 Flight Infrmatin Regins (FIRs) cnsisting f the fllwing States: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Barbads, Belize, Blivia, Brazil, Chile, Clmbia, Csta Rica, Cuba, El Salvadr, Ecuadr, Granada, Guadelupe, Guatemala, Guyana, French Guyana, Haiti, Hnduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Netherlands Antilles, Nevis, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Dminican Republic, Saint Barthelemy, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tbag, Uruguay and Venezuela. 3.2 Each part f the airspace was treated as an islated system, with its wn statistical parameters. 3.3 Cllect f Data Traffic Mvement The sample used t evaluate the frequency f passage and physical and dynamic parameters f typical aircraft fr assessing the risk f cllisin, it was cllected in the perid between 1 and 31 December 2015, f the 31 FIRs f the CAR/SAM Regins. In these shipments data, in terms f flight hurs f the cllected samples they were received 12532,541 flight hurs f all FIR mentined, with 3021,665 hurs f the CAR Regin (~ 24%) and 9510,876 hurs f the SAM Regin (~ 76%). As in previus years, much f the data received frm sme States culd nt be explited in CRM fr varius reasns, including errrs in the times f entry and exit (less than r equal time input utput), lack f cmplete infrmatin t identify and lcate fixed rutes and ntificatin, r even send data beynd the deadline; hwever, all data sent were explited in anther prduct f CARSAMMA, which is the audit f RVSM airspace. 3.4 As t the ccurrence f vertical Large height deviatins (LHDs) reprted in the CAR/SAM Regins, CARSAMMA received a ttal f 1,406 LHDs in Fllwing the analysis and validatin carried ut thrugh telecnferences with representatives f the ICAO Lima and Mexic Reginal Offices, the FIRs invlved, IATA and CARSAMMA, 1,225 f these LHD were cnsidered valid fr calculating the vertical Cllisin Risk Mdel (CRM). 4. Aircraft mvement data cllectin 4.1 The sample data fr estimating the pass frequency and the physical parameters, as well as the dynamics f a typical aircraft fr the assessment f the vertical cllisin risk were cllected frm 1 t 31 December Aircraft mvement data received frm the 31 CAR/SAM FIRs was prcessed and used t assess RVSM airspace safety, as recmmended by ICAO. The number f flight hurs used is shwn in Table 1. Regin Flight Hurs % CAR 3021, % SAM 9510, % CAR/SAM 12532, % Table 1

4 4 5. Aircraft fleet 5.1 Upn receiving the aircraft mvement data, CARSAMMA prceeded t filter and prcess the data. Table 2 belw shws the results, and lists the aircraft that flew acrss the CAR/SAM FIRs, with their dimensins and percentage f flight hurs, including a typical aerplane, used as a dimensin f the Vertical CRM. ACFT type Length Wingspan Height λx λy λz Number f flights % f flights B , % A , % E , % B , % A , % B , % A , % A , % B , % B77W , % B , % B , % A , % B , % A , % B , % B , % B , % B , % MD , % B , % B , % B77L , % Typical Acft Ttal 194, ,00% Table 2 Aircraft that flew RVSM in the CAR/SAM FIR (Dimensin measurements are expressed in nautical miles)

5 5 6. Data prcessing 6.1 Sme prducts can already be btained frm the first data prcessing step f the risk calculatin prgramme, such as the rati between the number f LHDs and the characteristic f the aircraft ppulatin that used the airways in RVSM levels. Sme f these prducts are listed in this chapter. 6.2 Segments mst frequently flwn in CAR/SAM FIRs: Table 3 belw shws the number f LHD ccurred in a mre flwn airway segment. FIR Mvements Fix A Airway Fix B Mvements in the AWY segment LHD in segment SACU 6058 PORKA UL550 OPTIR SAEU ROMUR UA558 ISOPO SAMV 3574 TOSOR UA306 RYD SARU 3858 TODES UL793 KILIP SAVU 2063 IREMO UA570 VIE SLLF 3117 SALBI UA304 TERAX SBAO 2699 ORARO UN873 TASIL SBAZ 3672 POPTI UM417 OPVEX SBBR USAMO UZ14 MULAP SBCW EDNAN UM409 BBC SBRE 8164 VUTNO UZ14 LIBRA SCCZ 600 EGOSA UG550 NAS SCEZ 7709 NUXUP UL302 DALUS SCFZ 127 LOA UL550 XONOG SCIZ 190 SAURI UL348 SAKOB SCTZ 1542 TOSET UQ805 IRUNI Ttal LHD 2015 SKEC 18 OTAMO UA301 SIPOK SKED 5954 BUXOS UL780 UGUPI SEFG 7096 ENSOL UM674 NEGAL SYGC 2466 KORTO UG449 LEPOD SOOO 3 3 MPZL TORIL UL780 ASIBO SGFA 1925 REPAM UA556 SAMGU SPIM ISREM UL780 TRU SMPM 1784 KOXAM UA312 ACARI SUEO SVZM 3675 ENPUT UA567 STB TNCF 7122 VESKA UA315 PENKO MHTG TALAG UZ512 ILESU MUFH UVA UG448 TADPO MTEG 3586 JOSES UA315 MEDON MKJK 23 23

6 6 MDCS 8301 KATIN UA315 VESKA TTZP 4484 ANADA UG449 PELMA Table 3 LHD ccurred in an airway segment. 6.3 The fllwing Graph 1 shws the LHD ccurred in the mst frequently flwn airway segments in the CAR/SAM Regins. The airway mst frequently flwn segments with the highest rate f LHD are: JOSES/MEDOM UA315 PORT AU PRINCE FIR (MTEG); VESKA/PENKO UA315 CURAZAO FIR (TNCF); *****/***** ***** KINGSTON FIR (MKJK); BUXOS/UGUPI UL780 BOGOTA FIR (SKED); ISREM/TRU UL780 LIMA FIR (SPIM); *****/***** ***** MONTEVIDEO FIR (SUEO); TODES/KILIP UL793 RESISTENCIA FIR (MTEG) HAITI; and ENSOL/NEGAL UM674 GUAYAQUIL FIR (SEFG); LHD in the mst frequently flwn awy SKED SPIM MTEG SARU SEFG TNCF SAMV SBRE SAVU MDCS MHTG SVZM SMPM MPZL SACU SCEZ SYGC SBCW MUFH SAEU SBAO SBAZ SBBS SCCZ SCFZ SCIZ SCTZ SKEC SGFA TTZP SLLF SOOO SUEO MKJK Graph 1 LHD in the mst frequently flwn airway. 6.4 The graph shws that there is a higher incidence f LHD in these segments, althugh the FIR in which the events ccurred is nt necessarily respnsible. 6.5 The fllwing three LHD illustrate the situatins that ccur in RVSM airspace, which prbably have led t an extremely unsafe level f the cllisin risk index.

7 7 LHD 139 FIR expsed t the risk: CENTRAL AMERICA Day: 30 January 2015 LHD 470 FIR expsed t the risk: ATLANTICO Day: 19 April 2015 LHD 1155 FIR expsed t the risk: LIMA Day: 20 Octber Cllisin risk safety assessment 7.1 This sectin analyses the results f the safety assessment f RVSM airspace in the CAR/SAM FIR. 7.2 The internatinally accepted Cllisin Risk Methdlgy (CRM) has been used fr the safety assessment f RVSM airspace in the Caribbean and Suth American. 7.3 At this stage f the data analysis, massive use is made f IT t knw the end results f the cllisin risk mdel. We briefly describe hw the data derived frm the aircraft mvement sample is used and cmbined, tgether with the validated LHD data. 7.4 The filtered aircraft mvement data was cmbined with the LHD data issued in 2015 fr the FIR under study. This data was cmpiled and analysed during the mnthly telecnferences held with

8 8 the experts f the FIR invlved, the fficers f the ICAO Lima and Mexic Reginal Offices and CARSAMMA. IATA als participates in these telecnferences as guest cnsultant. 7.5 During the telecnferences, the LHD is validated and parameter values are merged and inserted in the General Frmula f the REICH Cllisin Risk Mdel shwn in the next chapter. 8. Estimates f CRM parameter Figure 1 General Frmula f the REICH Cllisin Risk Mdel 8.1 The material and quantity f the surce used fr estimating the values f each parameter f the internatinally accepted CRM used fr assessing the safety f the RVSM airspace are summarised in Table 4. Parameter Descriptin Value λx Mean length f the aircraft sample nm λy Mean extent f the aircraft sample nm λz Mean height f the aircraft sample nm Pz(0) Mean speed f the aircraft sample (mdule) Relative same directin speed f the aircraft sample (mdule) Mean speed relative t the transverse apprach f the aircraft sample (mdule) Mean relative vertical speed during lss f vertical separatin f the aircraft sample (mdule) Prbability that tw aircraft with the same nminal level verlap laterally in the aircraft sample Table 4 CRM parameter estimates kt/h kt/h 13 kts 1.5 kts

9 9 9. Demnstratin f the technical feasibility f RVSM in the CAR/SAM Regins 9.1 This invlves assessing the results f the values f the parameters f the REICH Cllisin Risk Mdel: Pass frequency Nx Prbability f vertical verlap Pz (1000) Prbability f lateral verlap Py (0) T demnstrate this, the fllwing bjectives were established: Generate cnfidence in the cmpliance with the technical TLS; and Certify ASE stability 10. System perfrmance specificatins 10.1 Pass frequency, Nx This is the parameter f the airspace where the aircraft is expsed t the vertical cllisin risk. The equivalent pass frequency was estimated taking int accunt aircraft flying in the same directin and in ppsite directins, as shwn in Table 5. Pass frequency Same directin Oppsite directin Equivalent Flight time (h) CAR/SAM 0, ,541 Table 5 Pass frequency 10.2 Values are related t the CAR/SAM airspace system. It shuld be nted that the pass frequency shwn in Table 5 ( ) was calculated n the basis f ttal filtered flight hurs in the 31 CAR/SAM FIR. The estimated value f Pz (1000) used in ur calculatins was 2.46 x Estimating the cllisin risk 11.1 Table 6 cntains the sets f physical and dynamic parameters estimated in the REICH Cllisin Risk Mdel, as well as the fllw up t the main parameters fr the CAR/SAM FIRs. All parameters were determined based n the airspace f each regin being cnsidered as an islated system. Ez (same) ΔV (same) Ez (0p) ΔV (p) Ez (crss) V CAR/SAM ,7849 0, Table 6 Physical and dynamic parameters

10 10 12 Cnclusins f the safety assessment (CRM) 12.1 Cllisin Risk The estimated values f the Operatinal Errr are presented in Table 7, which result frm prcessing all LHD received and validated in 2015, plus the files cntaining aircraft mvements in RVSM airspace, as prcessed in the specific CRM sftware. Mnth Technical Errr Operatinal Errr Risk January 2.46 x x x 10 9 February 2.46 x x x 10 9 March 2.46 x x x 10 9 April 2.46 x x x 10 9 May 2.46 x x x 10 9 June 2.46 x x x 10 9 July 2.46 x x x 10 9 August 2.46 x x x September 2.46 x x x Octber 2.46 x x x 10 9 Nvember 2.46 x x x December 2.46 x x x 10 9 Table 7 Safety Assessment 6.00E 09 Vertical Cllisin Risk CAR/SAM FIR E E E E E E E E E E E E 09 jan E 09 feb E 10 mar E 10 apr E 09 may E 10 jun E 09 jul 15 aug 15 sep 15 ct 15 nv 15 dec 15 TLS Technical TLS Risk Graph 2 Vertical Cllisin Risk 12.2 The technical errr f the CAR/SAM FIR satisfies the gal that states that it shuld nt exceed 2.5 x 10 9 fatal accidents per flight hur due t lss f standard vertical separatin f ft and all ther causes. The peratinal risk des nt have a predetermined limit in accrdance with ICAO Dc 9574 In the case f the FIR under study, the estimated medium risk is 1.29 x 10 9 belw the TLS, which is 5.0 x 10 9.

11 11 CAR/SAM RVSM airspace Estimated flight hurs = 12532,541 hurs Surce f Risk Estimated Risk TLS Remarks Technical Errr 2.46 x x 10 9 Belw Operatinal Errr 1.27 x 10 9 Risk 1.29 x x 10 9 Belw Table Suggested actins: 13.1 The meeting is invited t: a) nte and review the cntents f this Wrking paper; and b) share experiences and express pinins cncerning CARSAMMA s actins in this matter. END