RISK OF VERTICAL COLLISION (CRM) OF THE YEAR 2017 IN THE CAR/SAM REGIONS. (Presented by CARSAMMA) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Transcription

1 13/09/18 CAR/SAM Planning and Implementatin Reginal Grup (GREPECAS) Eighteenth Scrutiny Wrking Grup Meeting (GTE/18) Mexic City, Mexic, Octber 2018 Agenda Item 1: Review f the cnclusins and recmmendatins f previus meetings f CARSAMMA and the Scrutiny Grup a) 2017 Results f the Safety Assessment (CRM) in the Air Space f Minimized Vertical Separatin (RVSM). RISK OF VERTICAL COLLISION (CRM) OF THE YEAR 2017 IN THE CAR/SAM REGIONS (Presented by CARSAMMA) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This wrking paper presents a summary f the vertical cllisin risk calculatin in the CAR/SAM Regins in 2017 using the CRM methdlgy. Actin: Take nte and review the cntents f this Wrking Paper. Strategic Objectives: Safety References: ICAO Dc 9574 Manual n a 300 m (1 000 ft) Vertical Separatin Minimum Between FL 290 and FL 410 Inclusive, AN /934, Third Editin ICAO Dc 9937 Operating Prcedures and Practices fr Reginal Mnitring Agencies in Relatin t the Use f a 300 m (1 000 ft) Vertical Separatin Minimum Between FL 290 and FL 410 Inclusive, AN / 477, First Editin Mvement f aircraft in the RVSM space in Reprts f Large Height Deviatins (LHD) in Intrductin 1.1 The purpse f this paper is t shw that the safety criteria defined in ICAO Dc 9574 and Dc 9937 cntinues t be met in the RVSM airspace f the CAR/SAM Regins. 1.2 This dcument reprts n the analysis f vertical cllisin risk in the RVSM airspace in 2017 in the Flight Infrmatin Regins (FIR) f the Caribbean and Suth America. Fr this wrk, the calculatin methdlgy f the vertical Cllisin Risk Mdel (CRM) was used, as recmmended by ICAO in the RVSM airspace.

2 2 2. Analysis 2.1 This reprt presents the results f the safety assessment in 2017 in the RVSM airspace f the Caribbean and Suth America (CAR/SAM). This step crrespnds t the cntinuatin f the RVSM implementatin strategy. 2.2 Accrding t Dc 9574 and Dc 9937, the assessment must be made t ensure that peratins in the RVSM airspace d nt induce an increase in cllisin risk s that the ttal vertical risk des nt exceed the defined safety bjectives. 2.3 Fr the quantitative assessment, the Reich Vertical Cllisin Risk Mdel is used, as recmmended by ICAO. This is a mdel f intensive mathematical fundamentals that, after analyzing the mvements f aircraft (spreadsheets cntaining data n flights made in RVSM airspace), calculates the Target Level f Safety (TLS) f the Flight Infrmatin Regin (FIR) under study. Several calculatin tls and databases are used fr varius calculatins during the prcess, as well as several hurs f analysis by experts. 2.4 This Wrking Paper cntains a summary f the results f the cntinuus safety assessment f the reduced vertical separatin minimum f 300 m (1000 ft) in the Caribbean and Suth American airspace in The RVSM safety assessment cvers a perid f twelve cnsecutive mnths. 2.6 Special attentin shuld be paid t: All aircraft perating in airspace f reduced vertical separatin minimum are RVSM certified; The certificatin f the aircraft is current; The Target Safety Level (TLS) f 5 x 10 9 fatal accidents per flight hur cntinues t be met (fr height tracking in a representative sample f aircraft); The use f RVSM des nt increase the level f risk due t peratinal errrs and cntingency prcedures; There is evidence f the stability f the aircraft Altimetry System Errr (ASE); The intrductin f RVSM des nt increase the level f risk due t peratinal errrs and flight cntingencies, accrding t a predefined level f statistical cnfidence; Effective additinal safety measures are adpted t reduce the risk f cllisin and meet safety gals due t peratinal errrs and cntingency prcedures; Air traffic cntrl prcedures cntinue t be effective.

3 3 GTE/18 WP/06 3 CAR/SAM airspace 3.1 The airspace f the CAR/SAM Regins is cmpsed f 34 Flight Infrmatin Regins (FIR) cmpsed f the fllwing States: Antigua and Barbuda, Netherlands Antilles, Barbads, Belize, Blivia, Brazil, Chile, Clmbia, Csta Rica, Cuba, Guatemala, Guyana, French Guiana, Haiti, Hnduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Nevis, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Dminican Republic, Saint Barthelemy Saint Kitts and Nevis and Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tbag, Uruguay and Venezuela. 3.2 Each part f the airspace was treated as an islated system, with its wn statistical parameters. 3.3 Cllectin f Traffic Data The sample used t evaluate the frequency f passage and physical and dynamic parameters f typical aircraft t assess the cllisin risk, was cllected in the perid between 01 and 31 December 2017 f the 34 CAR/SAM FIRs. In these data f mvements f the samples cllected, 397,265 flight registry lines were received frm the afrementined FIRs. All recrds were refined, subtracting 369,724 lines f flight recrds validated in the prcess. Hwever, all the data sent was explited in anther CARSAMMA prduct, which is the RVSM airspace audit. 3.4 Regarding the ccurrence LHD reprted in the CAR/SAM Regins, CARSAMMA received a ttal f 1,127 LHD in After the analysis and validatin carried ut thrugh telecnferences with representatives f the ICAO Reginal Offices in Mexic and Peru, IATA and CARSAMMA, 982 f these LHD were cnsidered valid, being 947 in the CAR/SAM Regins. 3.5 Therefre, the ttal LHD analysed by categry were: CODE A B C D E F G H I J K L M Ttal LHD Table The fllwing table describes the distributin f LHD duratin per mnth: MONTH LHD Ttal Duratin Average Duratin (min) (min) January February March April May June July August September Octber Nvember December Ttal Table 2

4 4 4. Cllectin f aircraft mvement data 4.1 The sample data t estimate the frequency f passage and the physical parameters, as well as the dynamics f a typical aircraft fr the assessment f vertical cllisin risk were cllected frm 1 t 31 December Aircraft mvement data received frm the 32 CAR/SAM FIRs were prcessed and used t assess the safety f RVSM airspace, as recmmended by ICAO. The number f flight hurs used is shwn in Table 3. Regin Flight Hurs % CAR % SAM % CAR/SAM 212, % Table Upn receiving the mvement data f the aircraft, CARSAMMA prceeded t filter and prcess the data. Table 4 shws the results and lists the aircraft that flew thrugh the CAR/SAM FIRs, with their dimensins and percentage f flight hurs, including a typical aircraft, used as a dimensin f the Vertical Risk Calculatin Mdel. Type ACFT Length Wingspan Height Flight Hurs % Type #Flights B , % 87,078 A , % 68,269 E , % 33,207 A , % 24,313 A , % 20,716 B , % 17,252 B , % 18,080 A , % 14,968 B , % 9,755 B77W , % 8,345 B , % 5,481 B , % 5,249 B , % 4,370 B , % 3,215 B , % 1,862 A , % 2,462 A , % 2,681 B , % 2,468 A , % 2,852 A % 1,640 B % 2,039 B77L % 1,739 B % 1,600 CRJ % 1,196 H25B % 974 E50P % 1,012 MD % 953 C56X % 898 CL % 868 E % 695 LJ % 827 B % 1,745 LJ % 837 B % 935

5 5 GTE/18 WP/06 Type ACFT Length Wingspan Height Flight Hurs % Type #Flights B % 838 E % 734 C % 600 C % 605 GLF % 566 MD % 703 MD % 450 BE % 500 LJ % 475 E55P % 440 A % 459 C % 402 F2TH % 378 E % 381 B % 374 GLEX % 375 DC % 385 A % 455 Others 6, % 10,023 Typical Ttal 212, % 369, Table 4 Aircraft that flew RVSM in the CAR/SAM FIRs 5. Cllisin risk safety assessment 5.1 This sectin analyzes the results f the safety assessment f the RVSM airspace in the CAR/SAM FIR. 5.2 The internatinally accepted Cllisin Risk Mdel (CRM) has been used fr the safety assessment f RVSM airspace in the Caribbean and Suth America. 5.3 Estimates f the CRM parameter: Figure 1 General Frmula f the Cllisin Risk Mdel REICH

6 The material and quantity f the surce used t estimate the values f each parameter f the internatinally accepted CRM used t assess the safety f RVSM airspace are summarized in Table 5. Parameter Descriptin Values λx Average length f the aircraft sample Nm λy Average wingspan f the aircraft sample Nm λz Average height f the aircraft sample Nm Average speed f the aircraft sample (mdule) Relative speed f the same directin f the sample f the aircraft (mdule) Average speed relative t the transverse apprximatin f the sample f the aircraft (mdule) Average relative vertical velcity during lss f vertical separatin f the aircraft sample (mdule) kts 35.9 kts 13 kts 1.5 kts Pz(0) Prbability that tw aircraft with the same nminal level verlap laterally in the sample f the aircraft Table 5 Estimates f CRM parameters Demnstratin f the technical feasibility f the RVSM in the CAR/SAM Regins This invlves evaluating the results f the values f the parameters f the REICH Cllisin Risk Mdel: Pass Frequency Nx; Prbability f Vertical Superpsitin Pz (1000); and Prbability f Lateral Overlay Py (0). T demnstrate this, the fllwing bjectives were established: Generate cnfidence in cmpliance with the technical TLS; and Certify the stability f the ASE. 5.5 System perfrmance specificatins Pass Frequency, Nx This is the parameter f the airspace in which the aircraft is expsed t the risk f vertical cllisin. The equivalent Pass frequency was estimated taking int accunt airplanes flying in the same directin and in ppsite directins, as shwn in Table 6.

7 7 GTE/18 WP/06 FIR Pass Frequency Same Directin Oppsite Directin Equivalent Curaza TNCF Central America MHTG Havana MUFH Prt au Prince MTEG* Kingstn MKJK* Sant Dming MDCS Piarc TTZP Crdba SACF Ezeiza SAEF Mendza SAMF Resistência SARR Cmdr Rivadavia SAVF La Paz SLLF Atlântic SBAO Amazônica SBAZ Brasília SBBS Curitiba SBCW Recife SBRE Punta Arenas SCCZ Santiag SCEZ Antfagasta SCFZ Isla de Pascua SCIZ Puert Mntt SCTZ Barranquilla SKEC Bgtá SKED Guayaquil SEFG Gergetwn SYGC Cayenne SOOO Panamá Oceanic MPZL Asunción SGFA Lima SPIM Paramarib SMPM Mntevide SUEO Maiquetia SVZM CAR/SAM Table 6 Pass Frequency The values are related t the CAR/SAM airspace system. It shuld be nted that it has been calculated that the equivalent Pass frequency shwn in Table 6 ( ) was calculated based n the flight hurs f the 34 CAR/SAM FIRs.

8 8 Figure 1 Equivalent Pass Frequency The estimated value f Pz (1000) used in ur calculatins was 2.46 x Estimatin f cllisin risk Table 7 cntains the sets f the physical and dynamic parameters that are estimated in the risk prfile, as well as the mnitring f the main parameters fr the CAR/SAM FIRs. All parameters were determined based n the airspace f each regin that is cnsidered an islated system. Ez(same) Ez(pp) Ez(crss) ΔV(same) ΔV(pp) V CAR SAM CAR/SAM Table 7 Physical and dynamic parameters 6 Cnclusins f the safety assessment (CRM) 6.1 Cllisin Risk The estimated values f the Operatinal Errr are presented in Table 8 that result frm the prcessing f all the LHDs received and validated in 2017, plus the files that cntain mvements f aircraft in the RVSM airspace, prcessed in the CRM sftware specific.

9 9 GTE/18 WP/ In the Figure 2 we present the Cllisin Risk cnslidated in the CAR/SAM FIRs in the year 2017 t shw the estimated vertical cllisin risks annually and by FIR. It shuld be understd that the FIRs that filled the LHD reprt have their risk increased, but almst always due t failures caused by the FIRs adjacent t their airspace. Figure 2 Vertical Cllisin Risk 6.3 The technical errr f the CAR/SAM FIRs satisfies the bjective that establishes that it must nt exceed 2.5 x 10 9 fatal accidents per flight hur due t the lss f the standard vertical separatin f 1000 feet and all ther causes. Operatinal risk des nt have a predetermined limit accrding t ICAO Dc In the case f the CAR/SAM Regins, the estimated average risk is 2,187 x 10 9 belw the TLS, which is 5.0 x RVSM airspace CAR/SAM Flight Hurs estimated = 212, Surce f Risk Estimated Risk TLS Observatin Technical Errr x x 10 9 Belw Operatinal Errr x 10 9 Risk x x 10 9 Belw Table 8

10 10 7 Suggested Actin 7.1 The Meeting is invited t: a) take nte and review the cntents f this wrking dcument; and b) share experiences and express pinins n the actins f CARSAMMA in this matter. END