International economic context and regional impact

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2 Contents I. GDP growth trends in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2012 II. Regional performance in 2012: Inflation, employment and wages External sector Policies: Fiscal and Monetary III. Conclusions and recommendations

3 International economic context and regional impact The deceleration of China most strongly affects exporters of natural resources (South America), who have a greater capacity to react (fiscal space) The dynamism of the U.S. economy is benefitting to a greater degree Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, but these have less capacity to react (fiscal space) when faced with a possible fiscal cliff The recession in Europe has had a varying impact: In South America, lower exports were registered (Brazil, Chile and Uruguay) as well as a drop in remittances (Ecuador, Colombia), although these countries do have a greater capacity to react to these adverse developments In Mexico and some Central American countries there was an increase in exports, despite the contraction of the European economy Most affected countries (South America) have a greater capacity to react, but there are risks to Central America and the Caribbean

4 The reduction in the forecast for regional production for 2012 is largely due to a lower level of activity in Brazil and Argentina 7% 6% 5% LATIN AMERICA: CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP GROWTH BY COUNTRY 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% Brazil Argentina The Caribbean Mexico Central America Rest of South America Latin America & the Caribbean 2% 3% Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.

5 Consumption continues to be the main driver of GDP growth LATIN AMERICA: RATE OF GDP VARIATION AND THE CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH OF THE COMPONENTS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND (2005 constant dollars, in percentages, weighted averages) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Public Consumption Private Consumption Investment Net Exports GDP Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.

6 Economic activity continues to expand (3.2%), but at a lower rate than that of 2011 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATE, 2012 (In percentages) Panama Haiti Peru Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) Nicaragua Costa Rica Chile Bolivia (Plur. St. of) Dominican Republic Equador Colombia Central America (9 countries) Mexico Uruguay Guatemala Latin America Latin America & the Caribbean Honduras Cuba South America (10 countries) El Salvador Argentina Brazil The Caribbean Paraguay Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.

7 Growth in the Caribbean increases from 0.4% in 2011 to 1.6% in 2012 THE CARIBBEAN: RATE OF GDP GROWTH, 2012 (In percentages) Suriname Guyana Latin America & the Caribbean Dominica Bahamas Belize St. Lucia Antigua & Barbuda Grenada St. Vicente y the Grenadines The Caribbean Trinidad & Tobago St. Kitts y Nevis Jamaica Barbados Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.

8 For 2013 a moderate recovery of growth in the region is foreseen, mainly due to an upturn in Brazil 7% LATIN AMERICA: CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP GROWTH BY COUNTRY 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% Brazil Argentina The Caribbean Mexico Central America Rest of South America Latin America & the Caribbean 2% 3% Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.

9 Moderate recovery in some countries and a slight deceleration in others in 2013 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATE, 2013 (In percentages) Haiti Panama Peru Paraguay Nicaragua Chile Dominican Republic Equador Colombia Bolivia (Plur. St. of) Latin America & the Caribbean Uruguay Mexico Costa Rica Brazil Guatemala Argentina Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) Honduras Cuba The Caribbean El Salvador Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

10 Modest and vulnerable increase in growth in the Caribbean: from 1.6% in 2012 to 2.2% in 2013 THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATE, 2013 (In percentages) Guyana Latin America & the Caribbean Suriname Bahamas Dominica Antigua & Barbuda St. Lucia Belize Trinidad & Tobago Grenada The Caribbean St. Vicente y the Grenadines St. Kitts y Nevis Barbados Jamaica Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

11 Regional performance in 2012: Inflation, employment and wages External sector Policies: Fiscal and Monetary

12 Inflation maintained its downward trend of the first quarter of the year LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, FOOD PRICE INDEX AND CORE INFLATION, (12-month change, simple average) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July CPI Core Food Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

13 Until mid 2012, at the regional level, there was a continuous increase of employment which positively affected consumption LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (10 COUNTRIES): EMPLOYMENT RATE AND URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, FOUR QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE, 2009 TO SECOND QUARTER 2012 (In percentages) Employment rate (left scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

14 Wage increases help strengthen households purchasing power LATIN AMERICA (SELECTED COUNTRIES): CHANGE IN REAL WAGES IN THE FORMAL SECTOR BETWEEN THE FIRST HALF OF 2011 and THE FIRST HALF OF 2012 (In percentages) Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Uruguay Venezuela, (Bol. Rep. of) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

15 With the exception of food, commodity prices are decreasing COMMODITY PRICES, (Index: 2005=100) Energy 200 Food Agricultural Raw Materials 50 Metals & Minerals 0 Beverages 2002M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M06 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the World Bank, Pink Sheet, August 2012.

16 The terms of trade are deteriorating in most countries of the region LATIN AMERICA: ESTIMATED CHANGE IN THE TERMS OF TRADE, a 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Latin America and the Caribbean South America (except Brazil) Central America Mexico Brazil Caribbean (except T&T) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a/ Figures for 2012 correspond to projections.

17 The exports of the region that will grow less than in 2011 are those destined for Europe LATIN AMERICA: ANNUAL CHANGE IN THE VALUE OF EXPORTS BY DESTINATION, a 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% I II III IV I II United States European Union (27) Asia (incl. China) Latin America and the Caribbean Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Projection.

18 Remittances recover, except for those originating from Europe, which are decreasing in 2012 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (9 COUNTRIES): CHANGES IN INCOME FROM WORKERS REMITTANCES, Dominican Republic Nicaragua Mexico Jamaica Honduras Guatemala El Salvador Ecuador Colombia 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% (Q1) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

19 A moderate deterioration in the current account is expected, due to the worsening of the goods balance 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% LATIN AMERICA (19 COUNTRIES): STRUCTURE OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT, a (As a percentage of GDP) 4% Goods balance Services balance Income balance Current transfers balance Current account balance Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Figures for 2012 correspond to projections.

20 Despite the turmoil in the international financial environment, the region has generally maintained its access to international financial markets 30,000 INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUES a (In millions of dollars, basis points) ,000 20, , ,000 5, Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Private sector Banks Sovereign Quasi sovereign EMBI+ Latin America (right scale) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of data from Latin Finance, Bonds Database, JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch. a Emerging Markets Bonds Index

21 No major changes in the overall fiscal balance are expected for 2012 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (19 COUNTRIES): CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL INDICATORS, a (Simple averages, as a percentage of GDP) a/ -6.0 Overall balance (right scale) Total revenues (left scale) Total expenditures (left scale) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a/ Figures for 2012 correspond to projections.

22 Latin America: Varying fiscal spaces, but greater than those of OECD countries LATIN AMERICA AND OECD: OVERALL FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT, 2011 (As a percentage of GDP) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

23 The Caribbean: Very limited or nonexistent fiscal spaces THE CARIBBEAN AND OECD: OVERALL FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT, 2011 (As a percentage of GDP) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

24 In 2012, monetary policy rates were generally stable, though some countries enacted rate reductions Countries that did not modify their Countries that modified their monetary policy rate monetary policy rate Increased Decreased Bahamas Argentina Brazil Belize Honduras Colombia Bolivia (Plurinational State of) Uruguay Paraguay Chile Dominican Republic Costa Rica Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) Guatemala Guyana Haiti Jamaica Mexico Peru Trinidad and Tobago Source: Central banks, updated on

25 In the first half of 2012, international reserves have increased in most countries LATIN AMERICA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (Index numbers, averages before the crisis = 100) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures * The values represent international reserves in millions of USD for August 2012

26 The variability of nominal exchange rates has increased LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: RATE OF CHANGE OF THE NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, DECEMBER 2011 TO AUGUST 2012 APPRECIATION DEPRECIATION Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures

27 A wide array of policies and measures (with differences between countries) has been applied between 2003/2008 and Fiscal policy focused on saving and debt reduction between 2003/2008, increased spending in 2009, and fiscal consolidation in Contractionary monetary policy in 2008, exchange rate depreciation in many cases with increased liquidity provision in 2009, and beginning in 2010 increased macroprudential actions. 3. Social and labour policies: income protection in 2008 and employment protection in 2009 (transfers, subsidies, standards) 4. Sectoral and trade policies: reduction in tarrifs and promotion of agriculture in 2008, promotion of small and medium enterprises and housing in 2009, and incentives and protection for industrial production in

28 Conclusions and recommendations

29 A slight deceleration in 2012 and a modest recovery in 2013 World economic growth continues to slow in the second semester of 2012 and the first semester of 2013 The main transmission mechanism of the international situation to Latin America and the Caribbean is the trade channel The region will maintain economic growth in 2012, albeit lower than that recorded in 2011, of about 3.2%, with Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay having the lowest growth rates Growth is expected to recover somewhat in 2013, especially due to stronger growth in Brazil

30 The (varied) country outlook will depend on the external situation and on the capacity to respond The South American countries that could potentially be the most affected by a deceleration in China and a contraction in the European Union also count with a greater capacity to respond (fiscal space and the use of macroprudential measures) Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean are benefitting more from the precarious recovery of the United States, but: Central America, and especially the Caribbean (due to less fiscal space) would be more vulnerable to an extreme fiscal adjustment in the United States While an expansive monetary policy in the United States could moderate the impact of fiscal adjustment, it would also contribute to an exchange rate appreciation in emerging market economies

31 Towards a structural change for equality The experience of Latin America and the Caribbean during highlights the importance of integrated macroeconomic policies (fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, macroprudential) that are closely coordinated with industrial policies as well as social and labour policies, and trade policies with an emphasis in increased open regionalism, in order to: Guarantee a relatively stable growth trajectory of output, quality employment, and investment, and Contribute to a structural change for equality: closing productive gaps based in technological innovation and environmental sustainability

32

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