Commercial Exchange Rate

Transcription

1 Commercial Exchange Rate Real (R$) / US dollar (US$), daily report R$ / US$ Source: Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil, Sistema Gerenciador de Séries Temporais).

2 Total merchandise trade US$ billions 3 2 Exports Trade balance Imports Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database

3 Top export commodities by traded products US$ billions Soybeans Iron ore Crude oil Raw sugar Poultry meat Soybean meal Coffee Corn (maize) Planes, helicopters and spacecrafts Frozen beef Cars Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, HS , 4-digit heading of Harmonized System 1992.

4 Top commodities by traded category in 214 US$ billions Exports Imports Raw materials Intermediate goods Consumer goods Capital goods Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, Product categories.

5 Brazil s top export partners are China, U.S. and Argentina Total export trade flow by partner US$ billions 5 China 4 3 U.S. 2 Argentina Source: WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution), The World Bank.

6 BRICS: Annual GDP growth Percent 15 India Brazil China 5 South Africa -5 Russia Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank.

7 BRICS: Annual GDP growth Percent 15 India Brazil China 5 South Africa -5 Russia Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank.

8 Economic activity and commodity pricing Brazil Economic Activity Index, Iron Ore Index and Crude Oil Futures US$ dollars / traded unit Brazil Iron Ore Oil Percent Source: Bloomberg terminal.

9 BRICS: GDP per capita GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP), constant 211 international dollars Thousands Brazil Russia South Africa 5 China India Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank.

10 Latin America top GDP per capita economies GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP), constant 211 international dollars Thousands 25 2 Chile Uruguay Venezuela 15 Brazil Mexico Colombia Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank.

11 Latin American economies with highest GDP per capita GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP), constant 211 international dollars Thousands 25 2 Chile Uruguay Panama Venezuela 15 Brazil Mexico Colombia Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank.

12 Gini coefficient for income distribution Country ranking and Gini Index 213 Country Ranking Gini Sweden 1 25 Ukraine Norway Slovakia 4 26 Belarus Country Ranking Gini United States Venezuela 44.8 Uruguay Mexico Chile Brazil Colombia Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank.

13 Perceptions of public-sector corruption Country ranking and Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 215 Country Ranking CPI Denmark 1 91 Finland 2 9 Sweden 3 89 New Zealand 4 88 Netherlands 5 87 Norway Highly corrupt Very clean Country Ranking CPI United States Uruguay Chile 23 7 Brazil Colombia Mexico Argentina 7 32 Venezuela Source: Corruption Perceptions Index 215, Transparency International.

14 Jan-97 Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99 May- Jan-1 Sep-1 May-2 Jan-3 Sep-3 May-4 Jan-5 Sep-5 May-6 Jan-7 Sep-7 May-8 Jan-9 Sep-9 May- Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 Jan-97 Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99 May- Jan-1 Sep-1 May-2 Jan-3 Sep-3 May-4 Jan-5 Sep-5 May-6 Jan-7 Sep-7 May-8 Jan-9 Sep-9 May- Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 Brasil Plural Uncertainty Index and Investment 6 Uncertainty Investment YoY (RHS reversed) -2 Percent BPEUI BPEUI Investment YoY% (RHS, reversed) BPEUI Investment YoY% (RHS, reversed) Source: Brasil Plural

15 Industrial Production Downward Spiral Source: IBGE, Brazil Plural.

16 Jan- Jul- Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Inflation and Selic Rate Percent IPCA YoY Selic rate 5 Source: IBGE, BCB IPCA YoY (%) Selic rate (%)

17 F 217F Fiscal Policy Primary Budget as % of GDP Percent Primary Budget (% of GDP) Public sector Recurrent Source: BCB, Brasil Plural. Our measure of recurrent primary budget excludes extraordinary revenues, Public sector primary budget (% of GDP) Recurrent primary budget (% ofgdp) such as concessions, Refis program and dividends payments above the historical average, and extraordinary expenditures, such as the CDE transfers.

18 Fiscal Policy Public debt as % of GDP Public debt (% of GDP) Percent Net Debt Gross Debt F 217F Source: BCB, Brasil Plural