GBTA BTI Outlook and Economic Forecast for Business Travel in Asia Pacific, Thailand and around the World

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1 GBTA BTI Outlook and Economic Forecast for Business Travel in Asia Pacific, Thailand and around the World Research Sponsored by: Welf J Ebeling Vice President, Operations - Asia Pacific Global Business Travel Association 1

2 Agenda GBTA Who we are and what we do GBTA Foundation and Research What Drives Business Travel? Global Economic Economic Conditions Asia Pacific Overview Travel Drivers: Exports, Profits, Employment Global Business Travel Outlook Global Overview Top Tier Markets: Some Struggle, Some Soar Asia Pacific Overview APAC Business Travel Spending and Forecast 2

3 Global Business Travel Association GBTA is the world s premier business travel and meetings organization Collectively, GBTA s 6,000-plus members manage over $350 billion of global business travel and meetings expenditures annually GBTA provides its network of 25,000 business and government travel and meetings managers, as well as travel service providers, with networking events, news, education & professional development, research and advocacy 3

4 Our (Current) Global Footprint Europe Canada France Russia China Formerly NBTA since 2010 Mexico India GBTA Brazil Latin America Africa Australia / New Zealand 4

5 APAC 5

6 6

7 Member-Provided Research Results Comprehensive report covering global economy, business travel trends/challenges, and 5-year projections Global GBTA BTI Data Cube -detailed database of industry sales and business travel spending: for 75 countries by 48 industries covering Data Cube (75 Countries) country breakouts for domestic and IOB Selection of pivot tables & graphs Domestic BTS IOB BTS Professional & Business Services (48 Sectors) Business Travel Spend (in $USD) Industry Sales (in $USD) Annual Metrics F For more information contact GBTA Foundation Research or visit The Hub 7

8 Global Economic Health What drives Business Travel? 8

9 Global International Outbound Travel Highly Correlated With Exports 9

10 The same holds true on a national level Example - China 10

11 Domestic Business Travel Highly Correlated With Retail Sales/Employment 11

12 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS FOUNDATION FOR BUSINESS TRAVEL PERFORMANCE 12

13 Global Economic Growth is Gathering Energy After a two-year slowdown, global growth is stabilizing and beginning to rise towards long-term trend. U.S., China, and Other APAC lead the way. Most central banks maintaining monetary stimulus. In part, to counterbalance fiscal contraction. Inflation risk is so far subdued but bears watching. U.S.: Housing, autos, energy, and consumer spending drive improving growth conditions. Meanwhile, government is providing a distinct headwind. Corporate profits, business spending, and (finally) hiring also starting to turn the corner. China: Central authorities continuing to shift economic mix towards domestic demand improving the quality of growth at the expense of some quantity. GDP growth currently below expectations but well within government targets. The Eurozone s sovereign-debt crisis quiet for now, but problems are far from resolved. North vs South growth diversion will continue. Emerging Europe waits for Core Europe and rest of world to improve. LatAm: Sound macroeconomic fundamentals, improving debt profiles, substantial foreign-exchange reserves, and stable financial systems have most countries poised for growth. Key risks remain: European retrenchment, Iran-driven oil shock, U.S. fiscal policy, and yet another Chinese real estate bubble 13 13

14 Global Growth is Improving Slowly 10 Global Growth is Improving, Albeit Slowly Yr-over-Yr % Real GDP Industrial Production Source: OECD, IHS Global Insight, IMF, Wells Fargo Securities, Rockport Analytics 14 14

15 Percent Change Asia-Pacific Will Pace All Regions in Real GDP Growth Stable, consistent econ policy plus rising middle class Rising incomes, infrastructure building, consumer expansion continue to (re)shape economies 0-2 North America Debt crisis, austerity, aging population make for long-term challenges Latin America Western Europe Emerging Europe Mideast- N. Africa Periodic deflation, aging pop lost decade II? Sub- Saharan Africa Japan Other Asia Source: IMF, IHS Global Insight, Wells Fargo Securities, OECD, Rockport Analytics 15 15

16 Inflation Outlook Also Differs Across Global Regions Annual Percent Change Consumer Price Inflation North America Latin America Western Europe Emerging Europe Mideast- N. Africa Sub- Saharan Africa Source: IMF, IHS Global Insight, Wells Fargo Securities, OECD, Rockport Analytics Japan Other Asia- Pacific 16 16

17 Oil & Jet Fuel Prices: Good News For Now $160 $140 $120 Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Prices Moving Sideways 2012 Averages: Crude Oil = $112/bbl Jet Fuel = $3.06/gal Jet Fuel: May $2.73/gal Brent Crude: May 2013 $103.03/bbl $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $USD per Barrel $100 $80 $60 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 USD$ per Gallon $40 $1.00 $20 $0 Sidewaysduring Likely to drift up in as global economy strengthens. $0.50 $0.00 Oil Price (Brent Crude) left scale Jet Fuel right scale Source: Energy Information Administration 17

18 Global Economic Health APAC Overview 18

19 Most APAC Economies Show Strong Historical GDP Growth % GDP Growth China Indonesia Sri Lanka India Vietnam Australia Thailand Pakistan Philippines Malaysia New Zealand Bangladesh Singapore South Korea Taiwan United States Hong Kong Japan 18% 34% 34% 41% 61% 61% 58% 64% 64% 64% 63% 78% 77% 74% 69% 81% 80% 89% 19 19

20 APAC Economies Will Continue to Grow % GDP Growth India China Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Hong Kong Singapore Malaysia South Korea Pakistan Taiwan Thailand Bangladesh New Zealand United States Australia Japan Sri Lanka 21% 20% 17% 26% 23% 37% 34% 32% 31% 31% 29% 44% 44% 40% 39%? 46% 55% 55% 20 20

21 Global Business Travel Outlook Global Overview 21

22 Global GBTA BTI Global GBTA BTI - derived from business travel spending, is a holistic measure of the health of any given business travel market. Highly correlated with Global Sales, although BTI is increasingly growing at a slower rate, as biz travel s productivity improves. GBTA BTI Global Growth % Trillion USD % Trillion USD % Trillion USD % Trillion USD % Trillion USD % Trillion USD 22

23 2012 Global Business Travel Spending Reaches $1.06 Trillion USD Total Business Travel Spending: Top 15 Markets Total BTS ($ Billions USD) Annual Growth in BTS (2012) 1. United States $ % 2. China $ % 3. Japan $ % 4. Germany $ % 5. U.K. $ % 6. France $ % 7. Italy $ % 8. South Korea $ % 9. Brazil $ % 10. India $ % 11. Canada $ % 12. Australia $ % 13. Russia $ % 14. Spain $ % 15. Netherlands $ % World $1, % About the size of the entire South Korean economy (15 th in world) 23

24 Shifting Business Travel Dominance: Changes in Ranking by 2017 Top 15 Markets (Sorted by 2017 BTS) In Millions of US $ Country BTS 2012 Ranking BTS 2017 Ranking Change China $ $ United States $ $ Japan $ $ Germany $ $ United Kingdom $ $ Brazil $ $ France $ $ South Korea $ $ India $ $ Italy $ $ Russia $ $ Canada $ $ Australia $ $ Indonesia $ $ Netherlands $ $

25 Off the Beaten Path: Searching for Opportunity in Tertiary Markets* Latin America Tertiary Markets Forecasted BTS in 2017: $36 billion Eastern European Tertiary Markets Forecasted BTS in 2017: $45 billion MENA Tertiary Markets Forecasted BTS in 2017: $19 billion Southeast Asia Tertiary Markets Forecasted BTS in 2017: $61 billion *To be included country must total $1B+ in annual BTS but be outside of top 15 markets 25

26 Global Business Travel Outlook International Outbound 26

27 Stark Differences in Countries Share of Domestic and IOB BTS Top 15 IOB Markets In Millions of US $ IOB as % of Domestic as Country Total a % of Total Singapore 81% 19% Zimbabwe 72% 28% Norway 70% 30% Taiwan 53% 47% Sweden 41% 59% Malaysia 40% 60% Switzerland 38% 62% France 37% 63% Czech Republic 35% 65% United Kingdom 34% 66% Ireland 33% 67% Ukraine 31% 69% Slovak Republic 31% 69% Belgium 31% 69% Canada 29% 71% World 18% 82% Top 15 Domestic Markets In Millions of US $ IOB as % of Domestic as Country Total a % of Total Iran 1% 99% Russia 3% 97% China 4% 96% Greece 5% 95% Qatar 5% 95% Argentina 5% 95% Chile 5% 95% Costa Rica 5% 95% Jamaica 6% 94% Cameroon 6% 94% Nigeria 6% 94% Kenya 6% 94% Austria 9% 91% India 9% 91% Poland 9% 91% World 18% 82% 27

28 Global Business Travel Outlook Top Tier Markets: Some Struggle, Some Soar 28

29 Many Trends Remain: BTS Growth Still Moving at Two Different Speeds 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Average BTS Growth Rates: Developed vs. Emerging Markets* 8.6% 0.4% 14.1% 11.1% 3.1% 3.4% 9.8% 9.0% 5.1% 5.2% GBTA BTI US China German y Brazil India Australi a BTS growth in emerging markets continues to dwarf growth in the developed world Growth gap closes towards the end of the outlook s horizon growth multiple of < 2x by 2015 Developed Market BTS Emerging Market BTS *Developed: W. Europe, US, Canada, Australia; Emerging: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia 29

30 High-Flying Growth Markets Continue to Add Mass to Their BTS 16% Expected Growth ( CAGR) in Business Travel Spend (BTS) and Current Level of BTS (size of bubble) of Top-15 Markets 14% China India CAGR % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Brazil France Global Total Australia Canada Germany Italy Netherlands Japan Russia Global Total Korea UK 7.1% Spain 7.7% United States 0% Country (Arranged Alphabetically) 30

31 Growth In Business Travel Spend: Top 15 Markets In Millions of US $ Top 15 Markets Ranked by $ Growth Change in BTS Rank Country BTS 2012 BTS CAGR China $196,166 $374,806 14% $178,641 1 United States $261,959 $324,531 4% $62,572 2 India $22,062 $40,409 13% $18,346 3 Germany $50,527 $66,325 6% $15,798 4 Brazil $30,127 $45,512 9% $15,385 5 United Kingdom $40,212 $53,267 6% $13,055 6 South Korea $30,453 $42,543 7% $12,090 7 Russia $20,439 $29,770 8% $9,331 8 France $35,743 $45,059 5% $9,316 9 Japan $65,183 $72,508 2% $7, Italy $32,671 $38,683 3% $6, Netherlands $17,817 $22,868 5% $5, Australia $21,074 $24,867 3% $3, Spain $17,873 $20,960 3% $3, Canada $21,991 $25,014 3% $3, World $1,061,249 $1,496,091 7% $434,842 31

32 Growth In Business Travel Spend: Top 15 Markets In Millions of US $ Top 15 Markets Ranked by CAGR Change in BTS Rank Country BTS 2012 BTS CAGR Poland $5.1 $8.7 14% $ China $196.2 $ % $ India $22.1 $ % $ Ukraine $1.7 $2.9 13% $ Kenya $0.5 $0.9 12% $ Zimbabwe $0.1 $0.2 12% $ Indonesia $14.6 $ % $ Greece $1.3 $1.8 10% $ Czech Republic $3.0 $4.4 10% $ Turkey $13.1 $ % $ Vietnam $3.2 $4.9 9% $ Venezuela $3.4 $4.4 9% $ Philippines $2.9 $4.4 9% $ Romania $3.0 $4.4 9% $ Senegal $0.2 $0.3 9% $ World $1,061,249 $1,496,091 7% $434,842 32

33 Global Business Travel Outlook Asia Pacific Overview 33

34 Most APAC Economies Show Strong Historical BTS Growth % BTS Growth China 82% Vietnam 74% Indonesia 73% Sri Lanka 67% India 67% Thailand 55% Malaysia 54% Australia 54% New Zealand 52% Philippines 52% Singapore 50% Pakistan 48% Bangladesh 46% South Korea 43% Taiwan 24% Hong Kong 14% United States -13% 5% Japan 34 34

35 Strong APAC BTS Growth Will Continue % BTS Growth Sri Lanka China Vietnam Philippines New Zealand India Malaysia South Korea Pakistan Taiwan Indonesia United States Bangladesh Australia Thailand Hong Kong Singapore Japan 15% 11% 9% 22% 17% 29% 28% 28% 28% 25% 25% 35% 34% 33% 32% 37% 53% 53% 35 35

36 Business Travel Spending and Forecast Asia Pacific USD (billions) * Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

37 For most of APAC Strong BTS Growth Will Continue Japan China India Thailand Asian Tigers South Korea Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong Indonesia 37

38 Business Travel Spending Forecast The 4 largest economies in Asia 38

39 Business Travel Spending Forecast The 4 Asian Tigers 39

40 Business Travel Spending Forecast 40

41 Business Travel Spending Forecast 41

42 Key Takeaways: Where is Global Business Travel Headed? Global BTS is still dominated by the U.S., Western Europe & China. These three markets combined make up nearly 70% of total BTS around the globe. China is a juggernaut- this point can t be exaggerated. They will pass the U.S. as the largest business travel market in the world by 2016 and not look back. The relevance of the top 15 BTS markets will continue to shift. Developing markets like India, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia will continue to leapfrog the slower-moving mature markets of the West. Western Europe, especially, will struggle. Consider looking for opportunity in tertiary markets. While many countries in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia represent small opportunities by themselves, the regional opportunity is enormous. Understanding industry mix will put you ahead of the curve when targeting new markets. We expect real estate to be a huge factor over the next five years. Expect travel-intense industries that are at the core of industrialization in developing markets (e.g., Utilities, Food Services) to play a significant role in driving near-term BTS as well. 42

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