Houston Economic Update. Presented by Patrick Jankowski Vice President, Research Greater Houston Partnership
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1 Houston Economic Update Presented by Patrick Jankowski Vice President, Research Greater Houston Partnership
2 Houston Astros - Percent Regular Season Games Won
3 Help from the bullpen this year
4 Help from the bullpen this year
5 Two ways to look at the season 2013 AMERICA LEAGUE WEST Spring Training Records Won Loss Seattle Texas Oakland Houston LA Angeles 8 17 Source: Major League Baseball
6 This fan has it right
7 And now the economy
8 Maybe you saw the fireworks?
9 Houston - The fastest growing major metro economy 20 Most Populous Metros 2011 Gross Domestic Product $ Billions % Change Real GDP Nominal Constant* 10 - '11 Houston, TX Detroit, MI Dallas-Fort Worth, TX Seattle, WA San Francisco, CA Boston, MA San Diego, CA Atlanta, GA Minneapolis, MN Phoenix, AZ Los Angeles, CA Tampa, FL Chicago, IL St. Louis, MO Washington, DC Baltimore, MD Philadelphia, PA New York, NY 1, , Miami, FL Riverside, CA Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
10 Houston has a long history of economic growth.
11 GRP The Long Term Outlook Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA ($ Billions*) $854.8 $962.2 $747.4 $643.1 $544.7 $452.8 $356.5 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 * '05 Constant Dollars Source: The Perryman Group, Spring/Summer 2012
12 Population
13
14 We have a new name Old name Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA New Name Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA
15 And Houston s geography has changed Houston Area Profile 10 Counties 125+ Cities and towns Most Populous Harris County City of Houston
16 And Houston s geography has changed Houston Area Profile 9 Counties 125+ Cities and towns Most Populous Harris County City of Houston
17 Houston s population grew faster than any other major metro area Rank Metro Areas Population as of 7/1/12 Change Since 7/1/11 1 New York 19,831, , % 2 Los Angeles 13,052, , % 3 Chicago 9,522,434 26, % 4 Dallas-Fort Worth 6,700, , % 5 Houston 6,177, , % 6 Philadelphia 6,018,800 21, % 7 Washington 5,860,342 89, % 8 Miami 5,762,717 74, % 9 Atlanta 5,457,831 83, % 10 Boston 4,640,802 37, % 11 San Francisco 4,455,560 58, % 12 Riverside 4,350,096 48, % 13 Phoenix 4,329,534 77, % 14 Detroit 4,292,060 4, % 15 Seattle 3,552,157 54, % 16 Minneapolis 3,422,264 33, % 17 San Diego 3,177,063 38, % 18 Tampa 2,842,878 16, % 19 St. Louis 2,795,794 2, % 20 Baltimore 2,753,149 19, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau
18 But Houston s population wasn t the fastest growing in the state U.S. Rank Metro Areas Population as of 7/1/12 Change Since 7/1/11 4 Dallas-Fort Worth 6,569, , % 5 Houston 6,051, , % 25 San Antonio 2,191,670 42, % 35 Austin 1,780,708 53, % 67 El Paso 821,408 9, % 70 McAllen 794,181 12, % 115 Corpus Christi 430,961 6, % 124 Killeen 412,390 7, % 126 Brownsville 412,577 2, % 129 Beaumont-Port Arthur 405, % 163 Lubbock 295,255 2, % 178 Laredo 254,948 4, % 180 Amarillo 255,781 1, % 181 Waco 255, % 190 College Station 231,462 3, % 198 Longview 215, % 201 Tyler 212,855 1, % 244 Abilene 166, % 265 Midland 144,953 6, % 270 Wichita Falls 150, % 273 Texarkana 149, % 283 Odessa 139,588 4, % 318 Sherman-Denison 121, % 331 San Angelo 113,348 1, % 359 Victoria 94,675 1, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau
19 Montgomery and Fort Bend grew faster, but Harris added more people ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION AS OF JULY 1, 2012 Houston - The Woodlands - Sugar Land Metro Area County 12 Population* Change Since 11 # % Austin 28, % Brazoria 324,769 5, % Chambers 36, % Fort Bend 627,293 19, % Galveston 300,484 5, % Harris 4,253,700 80, % Liberty 76, % Montgomery 485,047 13, % Waller 44, % Totals 6,177, , % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
20 County shares of Houston MSA population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
21 Growth is the norm for Houston.
22 Population - The Long Term Outlook Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA (Millions) '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 Source: The Perryman Group, Spring/Summer 2012
23 Houston vs. The Competition
24 Houston vs. The Competition Percent of jobs recovered through Jan 13 Houston vs. Top 10 Metros Houston Dallas Washington Boston New York Atlanta Chicago Miami Philadelphia Los Angeles 100% 215.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
25 Houston vs. The Competition Percent of jobs recovered through Jan 13 Houston vs. Top 10 Metros Houston Dallas Washington Boston New York Atlanta Chicago Miami Philadelphia Los Angeles 62.0% 50.9% 50.1% 47.2% 40.8% 102.4% 127.2% 158.2% 150.8% 215.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 100%
26 Houston vs. The Competition Percent of jobs recovered through Jan 13 Houston vs. Second Tier Metros Houston Baltimore Minneapolis Seattle San Diego Tampa San Francisco Phoenix St. Louis Riverside Detroit 55.3% 51.6% 49.4% 41.5% 27.3% 26.6% 23.4% 77.3% 91.8% 123.7% 100% 215.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
27 We re in a horse race now
28 But we re still the fastest filly on the track
29 A closer look at employment
30 Annual Employment Change Source: Texas Workforce Commission
31 Forecast for 13 Net new jobs 76,000 Annual job growth rate 2.8 percent Historic Perspective Job growth above long-term average
32 Winners and Losers Winners Accommodations and Dining Services Administrative Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Construction Educational Services Exploration and Production Finance Government Health Care Information Manufacturing Oil Field Services Personal Services Professional Services Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Utilities Losers
33 Regional Growth By Sector
34 Historic Perspective 12-Month Net Change in Jobs (000s) * * December to December Long-term average: 42,600 jobs Average without booms and busts: 50,200 jobs This year s forecast: 76,000 jobs '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '**13 ** GHP forecast Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and GHP Forecast
35 Click here for a copy of the forecast
36 Employment (Millions) Historic Perspective Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Houston Metro Area, '03 - ' Jan '03 Jan '04 Jan '05 Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 Jan '13 Jan '14 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
37 Employment The Long Term Outlook Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA (Millions) '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 Source: The Perryman Group, Spring/Summer 2012
38 Foreign Trade
39 Foreign Trade Houston-Galveston Customs District $ Billions (U.S.) Exports Imports
40 Houston s Top 25 Export Destinations
41 Houston s Top 25 Export Destinations Country Trade ($B) Country Trade ($B) Mexico $ Argentina $2.579 Brazil $9.144 Nigeria $2.480 Netherlands $7.899 Korea, Republic Of $2.762 Venezuela $3.629 Ecuador $2.325 Chile $4.212 Turkey $3.025 Colombia $4.801 Panama $1.817 United Kingdom $3.514 Russia $1.708 Belgium $3.459 Germany $2.088 Singapore $3.614 Costa Rica $1.699 China $3.835 India $2.163 France $2.459 United Arab Emirates $1.791 Saudi Arabia $2.099 Japan $1.502 Peru $2.616 Source: WISER Trade
42 Outlook for Houston s Export Destinations Country Projected Economic Growth Houston s 25 Largest Trading Partners GDP GDP Direction Country Direction Mexico 3.7 Argentina 4.0 Brazil 4.1 Nigeria 6.6 Netherlands 0.8 Korea, Republic Of 4.0 Venezuela 3.2 Ecuador 3.9 Chile 4.5 Turkey 3.2 Colombia 4.4 Panama 8.5 United Kingdom 2.0 Russia 3.9 Belgium 0.8 Germany 1.5 Singapore 3.9 Costa Rica 4.0 China 8.8 India 7.3 France 1.0 United Arab Emirates 2.9 Saudi Arabia 4.1 Japan 1.7 Peru 6.0 Source: International Monetary Fund
43 Outlook for Houston s Export Destinations 13 Outlook for Houston s Top Export Destinations GDP Direction # Countries
44 Oil Prices & Oil Rig Count Oil-Directed Rigs 1,600 WTI Spot, $/bbl 160 1,400 1,200 Oil Prices , Oil Rig Count Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: Baker Hughes (rigs), U.S. Energy Information Administration (prices) 0 Jan-14
45 Natural Gas Prices & Gas Rig Count Gas-Directed Rigs 1,800 Henry Hub Spot, $/mcf ,600 1,400 1,200 Gas Rig Count , Natural Gas Prices Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: Baker Hughes (rigs), U.S. Energy Information Administration (prices) 0.00 Jan-14
46 Energy Hiring Trends - Houston 12-Month Employment Growth Rate Month Exploration and Production Oil Field Services July % 13.5% Jan % 19.2% July % 18.3% Jan % 12.3% Source: Texas Workforce Commission
47 Vehicle Sales - 12-Month Total
48 Home Sales - 12-Month Total
49 Houston Purchasing Managers Index
50 And they play just across the street from Minute Maid Park
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