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1 Down Under to Down Wonder Australia and the Global Economy in a post GFC world. 1
2 I travel so much around the world, I feel like an Airport Economist Sent airborne by Australia s first female Prime Minister. 2
3 Love thy neighbour: Everybody loves Raymond Shanghai of the tiger: China is leading the charge in North Asia 3
4 With a little bit of help from my assigned translator Doing it tough with Natalie Bassingthwaighte 4
5 Doing it tough with Kate Fischer and Pru Goward Where the bolly hell are you? 5
6 Gilly is going into bat for the Gong 6
7 The Gilly Effect trends in interstate migration Tim Tams to Tel Aviv 7
8 Israeli innovation is always looking for a better place Free (trade) Nelson Mandela 8
9 Doing it tough with Miss South Africa 9
10 First half Socceroos versus Germany. But things got better for the Socceroos and Bafana Bafana
11 From Rio to Freo: the world is going nuts for Brazil 11
12 Working hard in Santa Fe near Medellin, Colombia The last few years have been an amazing time to observe the global economy 12
13 Not so long ago things were looking pretty grim. % 6 World GDP Year-average percentage change IMF forecasts % Sources: IMF; Maddison database Trading partner growth had been hammered right across the board Trading Partners with Well-below Trend Growth* % Share of Australia s trading partner GDP** % * More than 2 percentage points below rolling 10-year average growth, based on RBA forecasts ** Weighted using output shares at market exchange rates Sources: CEIC; RBA; Thomson Reuters
14 The world witnessed one of the most drastic collapses in trade in economic history From an Australian point of view we ve gone from down under to down wonder. 14
15 Finland Taiwan Japan Sweden Italy Germany Czech Republic United Kingdom Netherlands Euro Zone Spain Belgium United States Hong Kong SAR Portugal Singapore Canada France Norway Korea New Zealand Switzerland Greece Australia The great escape - Australia s economic performance was a stand out Per Cent GDP growth of IMF advanced economies (through-the-year GDP growth - June 2009) Per Cent And things have only got better in relative terms 15
16 Especially in the labour market By contrast, workers in the north atlantic economies have been hit very hard % Unemployment Rate % Euro area US Higher-income Asian economies Sources: CEIC; Thomson Reuters 16
17 Our unemployment is now well below the G7 average The great trade reforms of the past 25 years gave us a good base to withstand the GFC 17
18 At times like these, there s a lot of anxiety about trade issues and globalisation.. Trade has been associated with higher living standards 18
19 To stimulate or not to stimulate: some fiscal packages have been effective - bamboo shoots as much as green shoots China has helped pull along Australia s recovery 19
20 Australia s financial institutions have remained robust Credit ratings of the largest 100 banking groups Total assets, $US billion, log scale Australia's four largest bank holding companies Total assets, $US billion, log scale AAA AA AA- A+ A A- 10 Given the GFC and the recession porn faced our exporters have been a global surprise package 20
21 Australian exporters kept their nerve Change in export orders Last 12 mths (n=844) 47% 21% 32% Net Change 15% (actual) Last 3 mths (n=846) 29% 32% 39% - 10% (actual) Next 3 mths (n=812) 43% 24% 33% + 10% (expected) Next 12 mths (n=800) 60% 19% 20% + 40% (expected) Increase Stay the same Decrease Short-term prospects: (3 months) g Negative export growth but increasing Medium-term prospects: (12 months) g Positive export growth and accelerating NB: Don t know responses have been excluded from the analysis 41 They kept the faith - particularly in Asia 21
22 The emerging markets now hold the top rankings with Latin American & Africa joining Asia The GFC left export orders to emerging markets relatively unscathed 22
23 According to HSBC s recent Trade Confidence Index, the Great Recovery is an emerging market story.. Now our trading partner growth has bounced back 23
24 East Asia has been an important part of that story The emerging economies are really geeing up the G7 24
25 There s plenty of action for Australian exporters in the emerging world (source: UBS) 70 % share of goods exports 60 Developing 50 Advanced Developing ex China Easy rider: Steppe-ing out in Mongolia 25
26 Australia s attitude towards Asia: Once were worriers because of the The Tyranny of Distance We are now in the right place at the right time: The Tyranny of distance has been replaced by The Power of Proximity 26
27 Japan s economic development has partially driven Australia s export growth in the past Now it will be China, India and ASEAN who will drive much of our export growth in the 21 st century 27
28 Looking west, there s room to grow income-wise India has shot up like a 2020 game Australian Exports to India Share of total, current prices % % Share of merchandise exports Share of services exports /93 Source: ABS 96/97 00/ /05 08/
29 Even an education focussed story about exports to China and India 29
30 The rush that never ended? Mining investment is running at unprecedented levels Mining Investment Share of nominal GDP, fiscal years % % Sources: ABS; RBA
31 The terms of trade effects have substantial effects on real income Services has a good story to tell in terms of export volumes 31
32 Take a walk on the supply side Investment in education and training matters right across the board 32
33 There are now new challenges that require skillful economic management 33
34 Old Europe is creating challenges for the rest of the continent Demography is destiny? Population m China Japan m Total m Working age India Korea 50 m l l l Source: United Nations l l l
35 Japan: Land of the greying sun? China: getting old before they get rich? 35
36 India: Poppadom preach? Many experienced exporters have survived crises before 37% 21% 17% 20% 4% up to 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20+ years SOURCE: Sensis Business Index 36
37 Despite some Gen X and Gen Y growth, global SMEs are mainly run by baby- boomers 39% 27% 20% 13% 1% up to 30 years 31 to 40 years 41 to 50 years 51 to 60 years 60+ years 37
38 The GFC shook most of the world. 38
39 Our education sector is the key to locking in our future competitiveness, living standards and economic prosperity One big happy free trade agreement 39
40 Down Under to Down Wonder Australia and the Global Economy in a post GFC world. 40
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