HIGH COMMISSION OF INDIA TRINIDAD & TOBAGO. Monthly Economic and Commercial Report for the month of July, GDP Growth Rate (%)

Transcription

1 HIGH COMMISSION OF INDIA TRINIDAD & TOBAGO Monthly Economic and Commercial Report for the month of July, August 12, 1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Year Real GDP (US$ Mil) GDP Growth Rate GDP Per Capita (US$) , , , , , (0.9) 11, Real GDP Growth First Quarter: Jan-April Total GDP 2.3 Energy 5.5 Petrochemicals 20.0 Non-Energy 0.0 Construction 5.1 Manufacturing -1.7 Distribution -1.4 Agriculture ) Inflation Inflation June May March December Headline Food Core ) Total Trade Jan-Mar $ US M Jan-Mar $US M Exports 2,823 4,013 Imports 1,641 1,526 Trade Balance 1,185 2,495

2 4) Total Trade in Million US$ & its growth in 10 Major Countries. Trinidad & s ten major countries of import for the Periods January-March & January-March. Rank Country Jan-Mar Jan-Mar 1 U. S. A % 2 COLOMBIA % 3 GABON % 4 BRAZIL % 5 CHINA % 6 INDIA % 7 GERMANY % 8 RUSSIAN FEDERATION % 9 CANADA % 10 JAPAN % Trinidad & s ten major countries of export for the Periods January-March & January-March. Rank Country Jan-Mar Jan-Mar 1 U. S. A. 1, , % 2 CARICOM % 3 FRENCH GUIANA % 4 LIBERIA % 5 PANAMA % 6 SPAIN % 7 UNITED KINGDOM % 8 NETHERLANDS ANTILLES % 9 VENEZUELA % 10 GUADELOUPE % 5) Indo-Trinidad & bilateral trade (February as compared to February ): Exports to Trinidad & Exports to Trinidad & Imports from Trinidad & Imports from Trinidad & April-Feb, (Provisional) April-Feb. April-Feb. (Provisional) April-Feb. US$ (CIF) US$ (CIF) US$ (FOB) US$ (FOB)

3 6) Top ten items of export from India to Trinidad & (January-March ) Item Amount (KG) Value US $ MOTOR SPIRIT GASOLINE 30,509,460 23,200,000 OTHER CRUDE PETROLEUM 28,836,019 22,864,200 FERRO-SILICON- MANGANESE 1,213,500 2,147,400 OTHER MEDICAMENTS IN 3,749,411 1,895,600 MEASURED DOSES OTHER PAINTED PRODUCTS WITH 1,719,922 1,765,040 PLASTICS TOBACCO,WHOLLY,PARTLY 161, ,580 STRIPPED OR STEMMED PARACETAMOL, ASPIRIN 177, ,000 CAFFEINE,CODEINE ETC. OTHER PAINTED PRODUCTS WITH 207, ,500 PLASTICS<3MM SHELLED CASHEW NUTS 61, ,700 TOOTHPASTE 3, ,000 TOTAL 69,310,509 60,092,700 7) Top items of import to India from Trinidad & (January-March ) Item Amount (K.G.) Value (US$) WASTE AND SCRAP OF TINNED IRON OR STEEL 2,257, ,980 OTHER IRON OR STEEL 1,559, ,010 ARTICLES OTH.PAPER\\P.BOARD 313,113 47,166 UNSORTED WASTE, SCRAP OTHER WOOD IN THE ROUGH 54,000 27,020 OTHER WASTE OF SCRAP OF 103,500 5,798 ALLOY STEEL OTHER BASE OILS 60,750 11,600 TOTAL 4,347, ,574. 8) Five principal export commodities for the periods January-March, and January to March. Rank Items Jan-Mar Jan-Mar Percent 1 Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, & Related Materials 2, , , Chemicals Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials Food & Live Animals Beverages & Tobacco

4 9) Five Principal Import commodities for the periods January-March, and January to March. Rank Items Jan-Mar Jan-Mar Percent 1 Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, & Related Materials Machinery & Transport Equipment Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials Food & Live Animals Chemicals ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Regional Trinidad &, Antigua & Barbuda were the Caribbean countries most affected in by the global financial crisis. GDP growth contracted in all Caribbean countries in with the exception of Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and Montserrat. Unemployment increased in for Trinidad &, Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize and Jamaica. The Bahamas and Belize were the most affected with unemployment spiking by at least five percent. Growth prospects for the Caribbean remain bleak in based on low commodity prices, weak tourism reception and threats to recover internationally. Source: Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean - (UNECLAC). GDP Growth Real GDP increased in the first quarter of - growth came largely from the energy sector (5.5%) with natural gas and petrochemicals being the main drivers. Non-energy growth was flat in the first quarter, following a decline of 4% in the last quarter of. Real GDP growth is projected in the range of 1-1.5% in even if non-energy growth remains flat.

5 Inflation Inflation soared to 13.7% in June from 9.6 percent in May, all due to a hike in the prices of food. This event has prompted Central Bank to suggest that Trinidad & import fruits and vegetables while local farmers recuperate from crop losses due to the harsh dry season and recent floods. Core inflation, which measures the rise in prices excluding food and energy, remained stable and unchanged at 4.3%. The Central Bank has warned that the high rate of inflation could spill over into wage and general price setting behaviour. The Central Bank has kept the Repo rate unchanged at 5%. Source: The Trinidad & Central Bank 3 rd August publication. T&T Budget An 'early' national budget is being developed, according to Finance Minister, Winston Dookeran (possibly at the end of September ). The budget is expected to focus on issues like funds-crunch, the near collapse of CL Financial and CLICO, measures to stimulate increased food production and small businesses, and the possible rise in fuel prices, etc. The Finance Minister has initiated interactive discussions with several key sectors of the economy to help prepare for the government s fiscal package. Members of the business sector, labour-unions and other groups have met the Minister. Oil & Gas Price to remain stable. Short term prospects for global oil and natural gas are not anticipated to improve greatly, according to British Petroleum (BP) vice president and chief economist, Christof Ruehl at the BP Statistical Review of World Energy in Port of Spain. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is in financially good shape, and although Trinidad and is not a member, revenue generation from oil depends on OPEC manipulation of international prices. Mr. Ruehl states that once the current global recovery continues, prices will remain between US $70-$75 a barrel; however, this is anticipated to change in 2011 when current inventories are depleted. Prospects for natural gas are - the price should remain unchanged for the next two to three years. The international price will linger around US$4-$5 per mmbtu due to the current supply available on the market as well as the steady increase in shale gas production in US.

6 Oil & Gas Exploration The Trinidad & government has identified the need for increased commercial exploration activity to discover new reserves. This decision came about from the latest Ryder Scott Report (September ), which recommended that a major exploration and development programme be established to reverse the precipitous fall in proven gas reserves. New Bid Round for Deep Water Drilling The Trinidad & government is expected to launch a new bid round for deep water drilling in Trinidad and in September,. Newly appointed Energy Minister Ms. Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan said the Government was preparing a fiscal regime to encourage more deepwater exploration. Earlier this year, international and local energy companies were invited by the Trinidad & government to bid on and explore for oil and gas in seven off-shore blocks and thirty-nine shallow and medium water blocks. The Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries launched the Competitive Bid Round for Hydrocarbon Acreage in April, and bidding is due to close in September, when bids for deepwater gas will be invited. So far, eight companies have expressed their interest. COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENTS Caribbean Airlines to purchase Air Jamaica Trinidad and s Caribbean Airlines will take over operations of cash-strapped Air Jamaica and its seven routes, retaining 1,000 employees. Air Jamaica will keep its equipment and offices at the airport and the Jamaican government will have a 16% share in Caribbean Airlines. Newly appointed Finance Minister Winston Dookeran stated that Air Jamaica s revenue stream would give Caribbean Airlines the opportunity to expand its space in the world aviation industry. Tourism decline in Declining tourism revenues have been reported in the island of. Visitors now regard travel as a high luxury and both foreign and local visitors have slowed their spending on the island. Hotels, restaurants, and other businesses have suffered within recent months, making

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