Potential market and the role of banking in the economic integration of Latin America

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1 Potential market and the role of banking in the economic integration of Latin America Mar 2008

2 Some of the issues Potential market What are the difficulties to expand credit operations?

3 The size of the region GDP of a sample of countries US$ billion GDP 1,885 2,725 Brazil/Sample 34% 39% Sample: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Uruguay, Peru, Equator, Venezuela, Mexico

4 International Trade Trade in the Region US$ Billion Exports Imports Total Trade (% of GDP) 31% 38%

5 Regional Trade Intra Regional Trade (US$ billion) Mercosul Andean Exports Intra-regional Extra-regional Imports Intra-regional Extra-regional Share (%) Exports 20% 13% 6% 8% Intra-regional 80% 87% 94% 92% Extra-regional Imports Intra-regional 19% 19% 9% 11% Extra-regional 81% 81% 91% 89% Source: WTO

6 Foreign Investment Stock of foreign capital in Brazil Stock of Brazilian investments by country (US$ Million) (US$ Million) Country Country Argentina 758 1,297 Argentina 1,625 3,385 Bolivia 4 7 Bolivia Chile Chile Colombia Colombia Equator 1 9 Equator 71 8 Mexico 132 2,767 Mexico Peru 1 3 Peru Uruguay 2,107 3,239 Uruguay 3,121 1,981 Venezuela Venezuela Total 3,264 8,177 Total 5,260 6,347 % Total 3% 4% % Total 12% 7% Fonte: BCB

7 Population growth with purchasing power Above poverty line Country Population (thousands (thousands of Share of population of Inhabitants inhabitants) (%) Change Argentina 36,784 38,592 28,066 28,558 76% 74% -2% Bolivia 7,482 9,427 2,948 3,403 39% 36% -3% Brazil 162, , , ,499 63% 64% 1% Chile 14,395 15,398 11,487 12,519 80% 81% 2% Colombia 38,542 46,039 17,382 24,493 45% 53% 8% Equator 11,397 13,215 4,160 6,832 37% 52% 15% Mexico 91, ,147 48,398 68,465 53% 65% 11% Peru 23,837 27,947 10,774 13,666 45% 49% 4% Uruguay 3,218 3,455 2,916 2,805 91% 81% -9% Venezuela 22,043 26,577 11,154 16,717 51% 63% 12% Total 410, , , ,957 58% 63% 5% Source: Cepal

8 Brazilian financial institutions investing abroad Brazilian investment abroad: financial sector (US$ million) Total Financial sector Share (%) 31% 35% 31% 28% 26% 22% Source: BCB

9 % GDP 40 Crowding out out in in Brazil Brazil and and other still a problem other countries countries is % GDP Sep-95 Jan-96 May-96 Sep-96 Jan-97 May-97 Sep-97 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Source: Banco Central do Brasil Total Credit Net Public Debt

10 Source: Moody s 66 Gross Public Public Debt (% GDP) Debt % Chile México Paraguai Venezuela Perú Colômbia Brasil Uruguai Bolívia Argentina Média AL Rep. Techca África do Sul China Rússia Tailândia Coréia Malásia Tunísia Indonésia Turquia Índia Outros ME

11 36 Cost of credit still an obstacle, the case of Brazil % PIB jan/01 mar/01 mai/01 jul/01 set/01 nov/01 jan/02 mar/02 mai/02 jul/02 set/02 nov/02 jan/03 mar/03 mai/03 jul/03 set/03 nov/03 jan/04 mar/04 mai/04 jul/04 set/04 nov/04 jan/05 mar/05 mai/05 jul/05 set/05 nov/05 jan/06 mar/06 mai/06 jul/06 set/06 nov/06 jan/07 mar/07 mai/07 jul/07 set/07 nov/07 jan/08 % Source: Banco Central do Brasil (2008) Crédito Total Spread médio livre

12 Real estate financing (% of GDP) Chile México Brasil Média AL Holanda Reino Unido EUA Alemãnha Malásia França Tailândia Hungria Tunísia Média Outros Better Collateral Courts allowed the continuity of principal installments when interest is under dispute % Crédito ao consumidor 2005 (% do PIB) MÉXICO 3.82 CHILE 7.95 BRASIL (jan-2008) EUA REINO UNIDO Fonte: Hassler (2003) / Banco Central do Brasil / Banco Central do Chile / FED / Banco Central do México / Banco Central da Inglaterra

13 Spread ex-ante (Interest revenue less interest spending over remunerated assets) % , Colombia Chile México Equador Bolívia Brasil Peru Paraguai Venezuela Média América Latina Média outros ME Fonte: Gelos (2006)

14 Some conclusions The region is growing and becoming more integrated, thus the potential is large Some of the traditional markets for banks, such as real estate financing is still beginning Over-regulation: high required reserves; ear marked credit; easy taxing opportunities for the government are among the major obstacles to credit expansion.

15 Further information: Tomás Málaga

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