Reformas Estructurales y Crecimiento Económico de Largo Plazo

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Morris Elliott
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1 Fondo Monetario Internacional 28 de mayo de 218 Reformas Estructurales y Crecimiento Económico de Largo Plazo XXVII Ciclo de Jornadas Economicas Junio 11-12, 218

2 Gini Coefficient (population weighted average) East Asia Pacific Europe, Central Asia Latin America Middle East and North Africa 2 21 215 South Asia Sub- Saharan Africa 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 -16

2 Change in Gini (% ppts.) Change in extreme poverty (% ppts.) LA only region to reduce inequality since 2 but remains the most unequal one Progress was broad-based for inequality and especially pronounced in commodity exporters for poverty Gini Coefficient (population weighted average) East Asia Pacific Europe, Central Asia Latin America Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub- Saharan Africa Costa Rica Honduras Guatemala Nicaragua Panama Dominican Republic El Salvador Less inequality Mexico Uruguay Brazil Paraguay Colombia Peru Argentina Bolivia Chile (2 14) Ecuador Growth in commodity terms of trade (%) Dominican Republic Honduras El Salvador Panama Nicaragua Less poverty Costa Rica Guatemala Belize Uruguay Brazil Mexico Paraguay Peru Chile Colombia Argentina (2 14) Bolivia Ecuador Growth in commodity terms of trade (%) Sources: PovcalNet, World Bank, World Development Indicators database. Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Blue markers refer to South America. Red markers refer to CAPDR and Mexico. Sources: IDB SIMS; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Blue markers refer to South America. Red markers refer to CAPDR and Mexico. Chile utilizes 213 values for 214 poverty headcount ratio due to data availability. 2

3 CHL ARG NIC PER GRD ECU URY DMA PRY HTI PAN SUR BRB ATG CRI BOL MEX DOM GUY LCA VCT COL BRA BHS TTO GTM KNA BLZ HND JAM SLV Homocide rate 7 6 Homicides rates are high Homicide Rates, 215 or latest (per 1, people) 8 with some countries in Central America exhibiting some of the highest crimes rates in the world Elevated Violent Crime 5 South America 6 SLV JAM VEN 4 CAPDR and Mexico Caribbean 4 HND GTM GUY BLZ VCT LCA KNA BHS TTO 1 World GRD SUR ATG DMA BRB GDP per capita, PPP$, log Sources: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime; and IMF staff calculations. Sources: IMF staff calculations; and World Bank World Development Indicators. 3

4 SLV JAM HND BLZ KNA GTM TTO BHS BRA COL VCT LCA GUY DOM MEX BOL CRI ATG BRB SUR PAN HTI PRY URY DMA ECU GRD PER NIC ARG CHL with significant economic and social costs, hindering investment and potential growth The region would benefit greatly from tackling crime and improving security 7 6 Crime-related Costs (% of GDP) Social costs Private costs Government costs.5.4 Gain in GDP Growth if Homicides Rates Were Same as World Average (% ppts. per year) 5 South America CAPDR 4.3 Caribbean Rest of LAC Caribbean CAPDR Sources: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime; and IMF staff calculations. Source: IMF staff calculations. 4

5 Infrastructure bottlenecks reflected in low investment levels Education outcomes remain low, though region spends more than others Low openness levels call for further trade liberalization 4 35 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% GDP) Education Outcomes and Spending (% rank) 8 PISA education outcomes Public education spending (percent of GDP; right scale) Trade Openness, 217 (% GDP) Advanced economies = Average Advanced economies education outcome = Asia EME MENA SSA LAC Asia CIS EME LAC EME Asia MENA LAC SSA Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: PPP GDP-weighted average. Sources: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 215 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA); World Bank, World Development Indicators database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Simple average. Latest available data. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Simple average. Trade openness is measured as the sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a share of GDP. 5

6 Fondo Monetario Internacional 28 de mayo de 218 Muchas gracias. XXVII Ciclo de Jornadas Economicas Junio 11-12, 218

Contents of the Economic Survey 2012

Contents of the Economic Survey 2012 I. Macroeconomic trends in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2012 II. Reactions of the countries of the region to the adversities of the global economy III. Savings