Panel 1: Pilot Supply & Industry Consequences Update

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Natinal Training Aircraft Sympsium (NTAS) 2016 - Pilt Supply, Regulatry Cmpliance, & Training Equipment Mar 14th, 8:10 AM - 10:00 AM Panel 1: Pilt Supply & Industry Cnsequences Update Darrin Greubel

"Dan" Macchiarella Panelist: Interim Dean, Cllege f Aviatin, Embry-Riddle Aernautical University Darrin Greubel Panelist: Manager Line Ops, ExpressJet LaMar Haugaard Panelist: Directr Pilt Develpment

1 Natinal Training Aircraft Sympsium (NTAS) Pilt Supply, Regulatry Cmpliance, & Training Equipment Mar 14th, 8:10 AM - 10:00 AM Panel 1: Pilt Supply & Industry Cnsequences Update Darrin Greubel Mderatr: Manager Line Ops, ExpressJet Nicklas D. "Dan" Macchiarella Panelist: Interim Dean, Cllege f Aviatin, Embry-Riddle Aernautical University Darrin Greubel Panelist: Manager Line Ops, ExpressJet LaMar Haugaard Panelist: Directr Pilt Develpment & Recruiting, Hrizn Air Michael Dee Panelist: Directr Flight Training, Republic See next page fr additinal authrs Fllw this and additinal wrks at: Greubel, Darrin; Macchiarella, Nicklas D. "Dan"; Greubel, Darrin; Haugaard, LaMar; Dee, Michael; Lane, Shannn; Buyer, Jhn; Winter, Jeffrey; Ryder, Paul; Duncan, Jhn; Davis, Carl; and Bechdlt, Stacey, "Panel 1: Pilt Supply & Industry Cnsequences Update" (2016). Natinal Training Aircraft Sympsium (NTAS) This Event is brught t yu fr free and pen access by the Cnferences at Schlarly Cmmns. It has been accepted fr inclusin in Natinal Training Aircraft Sympsium (NTAS) by an authrized administratr f Schlarly Cmmns. Fr mre infrmatin, please cntact cmmns@erau.edu.

2 Presenter Infrmatin Darrin Greubel, Nicklas D. "Dan" Macchiarella, Darrin Greubel, LaMar Haugaard, Michael Dee, Shannn Lane, Jhn Buyer, Jeffrey Winter, Paul Ryder, Jhn Duncan, Carl Davis, and Stacey Bechdlt This event is available at Schlarly Cmmns:

3 NTAS/PS&DS 2016 Supplemental Ntes Panel 1: Pilt Supply and Industry Cnsequences Update Aviatin Academic Status Embry-Riddle Aernautical University Dr. Dan Macchiarella See ERAU Macchiarella PwerPint Presentatin The clleges are capable f delivering mre prfessinal pilts than they are nw, but sme assistance may be needed Reginal Airlines ExpressJet Airlines Capt. Darrin Greubel (n presentatin) CRJ Fleet and ERJ Fleet, hiring classes every ther week Taking as many pilts as pssible Lse 70 r 80 pilts per mnth t the majr airlines Trying t keep up with attritin and expansin f fleet Receive smewhere between 5, 10, r even 0 applicatins per day A few new changes 2 cntracts extended fr a 2 year perid with increased pilt salary United Airlines Pathway agreement fr ERJ pilts; Saw a small spike in interest, hwever it has plateaued We have been using all frms f scial media, vide develpment, and aggressive marketing techniques Hping t gain mmentum as the wrd spreads abut ur new changes at ExpressJet Future f Pilt Supply Started this Pilt Supply Summit in 2010 Our gal is t shw what the numbers are in the pilt pl and future supply The number f ATP certified pilts is nt an accurate depictin f available pilts in the U.S. We have t filter the numbers and determine the accurate number f pilts available. Histrically, everything we have predicted has either been accurate r verly ptimistic Within the next 12 mnths hping fr a new update n the pilt pl Hrizn Airlines LaMar Hauggard See Hrizn Haugaard PwerPint Presentatin Whlly wned subsidiary f Alaskan airlines since 1986 Similar reprts as ExpressJet Like many ther reginal airlines, we ve been spreading the same message fr the pilt supply issue We knw the prblem is here, and we need t d smething abut it Five Year Frecast Need 120 pilts per year We receive abut 2-3 applicatins a day Even as a smaller carrier we are barely at a sustainable level Wrking n mitigatin plans t drive recruiting needs frm AABI accredited universities up t 70% by 2019 Withut any changes, we will have t park airplanes

4 Presented numerus prpsals t slve this prblem Republic Airways Captain Michael Dee See Republic Dee PwerPint Presentatin 2 airlines under the hldings cmpanies: Republic Airways and Shuttle America Fly fr Delta, American, and United 220 airplanes, including nes parked due t a lack f pilts Filed bankruptcy 3 weeks ag Current situatin Signed new pilt cntract in Octber; resulted in a spike in applicatins Talent acquisitin was seeking t find the mst suitable pilt candidate, nt simply any pilt available Need 700 pilts by 2016 & we need them t be successful We realized just because we can hire a pilt with 5000 hurs, desn t mean they will be successful in training Candidate: Current, Interesting, Efficient, Standardized, Effective Advantages f IPAD Learn much mre n their wn time rather than traditinal lecturing Interactive presentatins, adaptive cursewrk Mre effective fr current generatin f pilts Data is available abut students prgress Tracking similar t Disney Wrld; can track everyne with a magic band Use IPADs fr AQP data, Student feedback, standards checks, ASAP, LOSA, FOQA Evaluated fr effectiveness and then used t adapt ur grund schl Changes being made due t increased data infrmatin Stabilized apprach criteria Autmatin plicy mdified Flap/Slat training mdified (ERJ has abnrmalities) Allegiant Airlines Shannn Lane See Allegiant Lane PwerPint Presentatin Lw cst sectr f airlines, such as Spirit r Frntier We staff ur fleet with fewer pilts than mst Retiring MD80s, 29 Airbus, and 757s Flying MD hurs per day, abut half cmpared t industry Increased utilizatin f Airbus, staffing mre pilts per seat Lw frequency mdel We have 14 bases acrss the cuntry such as Sanfrd FAR 117 didn t impact quite as severely but des impact duty time Attritin fairly mderate, lse abut 5% f ur 700 pilts D have a number f pilts with call back rights t American Lking t hire 160 pilts in 2016, significant fr ur small size New Hiring Prcess Lking clser at pilt persnalities Using data cllectin t find best pilt characteristics and will be analyzing later n (hurs, educatin, training ) Recruitment pprtunities: meet and greets, cllege fairs, bridge prgram with Ameriflight (135 peratins), strengthened internship prgram Majr Airlines Jhn Buyer United Airlines Directr f Training

5 See UAL Buyer PwerPint Presentatin Pilt Hiring Frecast United called back Jhn t lk at the pilt supply demand fr the majr airlines Majrs aren t seeing the shrtages just yet, but it is cming N pilt shrtage at United yet Retirement is cming retirements per year Next 20 years 12,000 pilts will be needed Nt including expansins Big need fr pilts in the future Hiring stress pssible in 3-5 years Applicants Full ATP, n restricted ATP Avg hurs fr applicants What are we ding? Career path prgrams are being develped and put int place. ExpressJet, Cmmutair, ther training facilities partnered Trying t develp clear pathways fr yung peple t get int the industry and knw they will make it t the majrs Merit based, n guarantee Jb fit assessment dne in beginning t see if applicant meets criteria Panel interview is dne afterwards Successful interviewees are entered int the prgram. The applicant then has t behave and have a gd file Once applicant meets hur requirements, administratr will recmmend t the hiring bard Pssible extensin t university level, r high schl level Jeffrey Winter Jet Blue AQP Manager (n presentatin) Pilt surcing Pretty gd right nw* Applicatin windws gives a surge perid where they can lk at apps and cnduct interviews Thusands f applicatins; hiring hundreds at a time Digging deeper: Applicants apply t mre than just JetBlue Masks the prblem f pilt hiring Fleet 260 airplanes 130 A320s 106 A321 s 60 E190s Hiring Arund 200 pilts a year Nt because f attritin Summer flying putting strain n pilt grups Giving themselves a cushin in the busy mnths Lw attritin Yung airline (2001) Nt much turnver

6 Mstly in the junir ranks Guys ging t Delta, United, American Older guys are t far int the payscale 7 Gateways 1. Street hire 2. Blue dart Spnsrship Pilt will vuch fr anther pilt t get the pilt an interview 3. Crew t cckpit Ops emplyees with an ATP wh d gd jbs Given pprtunity t mve int a pilt seat 4. Instructr 1 year at Orland Granted interview 5. Absent crewmember Gives time fr the persn t g get ATP and cme back 6. University gateway Accredited schl Flw thrugh cape air 7. Gateway Select -- SEE GATEWAY 7 PANEL DISCUSSION -- Is there a prblem? Yes, but nt yet We re nt ging t let prblem shw up befre we start trying t fix it By the time yu recgnize the prblem, it is already t late ALPA Capt. Paul Ryder (n presentatin) ALPA has acknwledged there is truble ahead fr the pilt shrtage There are currently enugh pilts in the market and mre cming, hwever where are they ging? Part f the slutin is accepting the challenge f hw t entice pilts t chse a prfessin as an airline pilt 3 main issues: 1. Mney ExpressJet has increased pay t $37-$40 an hur Pilts need better cmpensatin n the frnt end t make the risk acceptable 2. Wrk Life Balance 3. Career Prgressin Pathways - Need t cllabrate with reginals, majrs, and universities t define a path fr these pilts Build partnerships We have t talk abut the slutins and make them sustainable Can t use shrt term slutins t attract students, such as bnuses; pilts will nt be willing t take that risk U.S. system f transprtatin generates 1.4 billin twards the ecnmy

7 We need t remember, if there aren t pilts cming in we wn t see the success and sustainability f the industry 140,000 ATPs Hwever, part f thse ATPs dn t want t cme in t the industry because f quality f wrk life, lw cmpensatin, and large risk What d we need t d? ALPA will ffer facility and staff t bring frth cncepts and ideas t slve the issues The Pilt Supply issue is nt new fr ALPA, we want sustainability Cllabrate & Wrk tgether Cme up with a game plan t ensure the airlines can cmpete glbally and meet the demand f the dmestic system The challenge fr reginals is a brken business mdel Need mainline carriers, reginals, pilts, and stakehlders t cme tgether t imprve the relatinship Study by Dr. Ken Byrnes (ERAU) Students have identified pay is a majr reasn why they chse different carrier paths Air Carrier Training Aviatin Rulemaking Cmmittee Jhn Duncan (n presentatin) FAA s view n pilt demand issue It is a significant issue fr the FAA It has created stress, hazards and risks in the system Jhn must hire 200 peple in his rganizatin this year, s it s nt just airlines Air Carrier Training ARC Recmmendatins and best practices that wrk well within the industry Crafting things that wuld wrk well in the industry Specialized wrk grups Part 121, 135, 142 resulted in: ATP wrkgrup Created April 2014; explre ther pathways t an ATP Difficult; requires ptential rulemaking;legislative issues Open t ways t deal with ATP cert. in a mre efficient way Maintain safety, prvide benefits t everyne Actively pursuing these ideas Pilt Shrtage Factrs (FAA Side) Flight path management CRM Crew relatinships imprtant fr effective training and ps. Need t maintain safety culture Cntract training Imprtant part f industry Has been a challenge s far t implement effectively Lking fr efficient cntract training;maintaining safety culture Pilt prfessinal develpment NNO Mentring and training t stress leadership in airline peratins Airmen Certificatin standards

8 Taking PTS and adding risk management t it with emphasis New testing will include all cmpnents t prduce a gd pilt Part 60 Standards necessary fr NNO Safety emphasis training Recvering frm full stall Stick pusher training Airbrne icing identificatin and training Gusting crsswind landings and bunced landings Wrld Pilt Demand, Trends, Frecasts Q&A Capt. Carl Davis Being See Being Davis PwerPint Presentatin We ll be fcusing n 2015, 2016 numbers will be ut at Oshksh Market Trends Emerging Ecnmies Increased Diversity Strng replacement demand Annually aircraft reach 25 years New airplanes capabilities (i.e. new markets) 14,330 aircraft are ging t Asia Pilt and Technician utlk 558,000 pilts needed fr the next 20 years (glbally) 60,000 pilts needed fr the next 20 years in Nrth America Custmers are nw asking manufacturers t prvide pilts with aircraft The ability t cme frm accredited aviatin institutin is ging t be the standard fr the rest f the wrld. Imprtant t prvide validity f pilt training and certificatins Start t see mre cuntries take ur qualified and trained pilts and they dn t have 750, 1000,1250, 1500 hur restrictins. Being cllabratin with academia Grwing training centers Engaging with student utreach prgrams Pilt develpment prgram Cnsult with airlines arund the wrld, and help them build a pipeline with flight schls Training Centers acrss the glbe Melburne, Singapre, Casablanca, Shanghai China is taking all f the pilts frm Sutheast Asia 30 pilts frm Krean Air resigned n same day; g t China Q: Jeff Kalstian (Gaetz) - The nly persn that has ever t cme int my classrm and talk abut a partnership was AOPA, n airlines. I have t g ut and search fr pprtunities n my wn. I have never had any f my kids in a simulatr but believe it wuld be a fantastic pprtunity. Only abut 2 students a year pursue an aviatin degree fr cllege. What are the high schl level initiatives available that we dn t knw abut, it and will I ever see any representatives cme int my classrm t talk abut them?

9 A: Darrin Greubel (ExpressJet) Frm ExpressJets perspective, we hst pen huses at ur Atlanta and Hustn bases. We let kids in simulatrs, even dwn t the 8 th grade level. We re trying t spread the wrd and rebuild the image f hw exciting the industry is. A: Paul Ryder (ALPA) Yu bring up a gd pint, yu need t talk t Justin Dahan. ALPA has an educatin cmmittee with 30 years f utreach. We have pilts that visit classrms and we believe the elementary schl level is the right age t spark interest in aviatin. We wuld lve t partner with educatin t intrduce students t the industry. It s tugh fr an educatr t knw where t g in this industry, and it s ur jb t make it easier fr yu. A: Capt. Jhn Buyer (United) We recgnize we need t get t the high schl level and have been ding persnal visits. We find that 9 ut f 10 pilts admit their interest in the industry started at the high schl level. We want t let these kids knw they can d it, and be cmmitted t keeping ur pathways pen s that these kids can make it t the airlines. A: LaMar Haugaard (Hrizn) - Hrizn des an utreach within the by scut grups in the Prtland and Seattle area. We have a weekend where students can cme int ur facilities. We had ver 800 students this past year. We als partner with Alaskan and Natinal Guard t include utreach prgrams. A: Stacy Bechdlt (RAA) High Schl guidance cunselrs dn t ften have a lt f infrmatin t prvide. They hld an annual cnference (New Orleans July this year). We encurage airlines and industry stakehlders t attend and talk abut pilt/aviatin careers. We ve been encuraging the airlines and sharing the infrmatin with ALPA, nt nly fr just pilt careers, but all careers in aviatin. A: Jhn Duncan (FAA) We hld ACE camps arund the cuntry as an utreach prgram. A: Dr. Dan Macchiarella Gaetz aerspace institute: 3000 students in 72 high schls with stem educatin. The gal is t start the interest at the high schl level and ffer these students dual enrllments prgrams that they can bring t an aviatin university. A: Peter Mrtn EAA has a great yung eagles prgram. A: Carl Davis - Being We have a new initiative aimed at the manufacturing career interest that we are lking t expand. We fcus ur utreach n areas where we have training campuses. Being has an entire department dedicated t educatinal utreach Q: Dave Allen (ExpressJet) - I ve been in the reginal airlines fr 15 years. At ExpressJet we have increased pay by 50%. If the RAA believes bnuses are here t stay, why aren t airlines ffering pay increases in the frm f salary instead f bnuses. A: Stacey (RAA) - Yu have t lk at the negtiatin n the cntract, the labr partners have t wrk with us. If we were able t cntinue t increase the base pay, there may nt be need fr the bnus. Until we can get t a wrking business mdel, there is ging t have t be smething that fills that gap.

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