San Juan Islands Visitor Study

Transcription

1 San Juan Islands Visitr Study Dug Whittaker, B Shelby, and Dan Shelby Cnfluence Research and Cnsulting fr Terrestrial Managers Grup June 2018

2 San Juan Islands Visitr Study Prepared by Dug Whittaker, B Shelby, and Dan Shelby Cnfluence Research and Cnsulting fr San Juan Cunty Parks, Recreatin, and Fair Land Bank and San Juan Island Natinal Histrical Park Natinal Park Service in cperatin with the San Juan Islands Terrestrial Managers Grup Funded by San Juan Cunty and Natinal Park Service June 2018

3 Table f cntents Intrductin... 1 Study prcess... 2 Organizatin f this dcument... 2 Methds Summary... 3 Visitatin analysis... 3 Cunts and bservatins... 4 Accmmdatin inventry... 6 Onsite survey... 7 Ferry survey... 9 Findings Getting t the islands Washingtn State Ferry visitatin (frm WSF) Other passenger ferries Cruise ships Airline visitatin Private bat visitatin Ttal visitatin frm all surces Visitr characteristics Which islands d they visit? (frm nsite and ferry survey) Number f days n each island Getting t attractin sites (frm nsite survey) Prprtin f visitrs & residents at attractin sites (frm nsite survey) Length f visit Grup size Where d visitrs live? Previus visitatin t the San Juan Islands (frm ferry survey) Recreatin participatin during their visit (frm ferry survey) Recreatin participatin differences between islands (frm ferry survey) Resident characteristics (frm bth surveys) Which island d residents live n? (frm nsite survey) Mnths per year living n the island (frm bth surveys)... 42

4 Years living n the islands (frm bth surveys) Frequency f site visits (frm nsite surveys) Number f trips t mainland per year (frm ferry survey) Reasns fr visiting (frm ferry survey) Reasns fr visiting: Differences between islands Reasns fr living in the San Juans Where d they stay? An accmmdatin inventry Range f typical turist accmmdatins Ttal accmmdatins by type Prprtin f accmmdatins with different amenities Understanding vacatin rentals Overview f San Juan Cunty husing stck Vacatin rentals Estimating numbers and their characteristics Estimating vacatin rental characteristics Accmmdatin inventry Ttal units acrss all types Accmmdatin inventry Ttal peple acrss all types Reprted accmmdatin: Ferry survey Reprted accmmdatin amenities (frm ferry visitrs) Des accmmdatin capacity cnstrain verall visitatin? Where d visitrs g? Number f recreatin sites visited (frm ferry survey) Reprted sites visited (frm ferry survey) Use levels at attractin sites by island (frm cunts/bservatins) Visitatin at sites (frm traffic cunters) Visitatin infrmatin frm ther surces Crwding Overall reprted crwding (frm ferry survey) Feeling crwded differences between islands (frm ferry survey) Crwding at attractin sites (frm nsite survey) Cmparing crwding San Juan Islands t ther turism destinatins Cping with crwding and cngestin Evaluating cnditins and facilities at attractin sites (frm nsite survey) Evaluating use densities at beaches and marine viewing areas (frm ferry survey) Beach density evaluatins Marine viewing area densities... 92

5 Supprt fr management actins (frm ferry survey) Summary f supprt fr all actins (frm ferry survey) Public land acquisitin and infrastructure develpment Transprtatin management actins Educatin and regulatin actins Managing use: Which strategies d visitrs supprt? Thirty ideas t jump-start a multi-agency cperative actin plan Additinal infrmatin needs Resident survey WSF ferry data Additinal cunt / bservatin infrmatin Friday Harbr cngestin and parking cunts American Camp and Eagle Cve use English Camp use Cattle Pint use Eastsund cngestin and parking Turism Master Plan Outlying islands survey In separate dcuments: Appendix A -- Acknwledgements Appendix B -- Additinal infrmatin and results frm visitatin analysis Appendix C -- Additinal infrmatin frm cunts and bservatins element Appendix D -- Additinal infrmatin frm accmmdatin inventry Appendix E -- Additinal infrmatin and results frm nsite survey Appendix F -- Additinal infrmatin and results frm ferry survey Appendix G -- Example cunt frms fr 2018 data cllectin

6 Intrductin The San Juan Islands are a majr nrthwest turist destinatin, with increasing use and impacts that threaten resurce health and the quality f visitr experiences. Several lcal, state, federal, and nngvernmental rganizatins that manage parks, prtected areas, r recreatin facilities frmed the San Juan Islands Terrestrial Managers Grup (TMG) t address these challenges. The TMG recgnizes that visitrs experiences ccur acrss agency bundaries, and slutins fr many visitr prblems require a brader view and crdinated decisins. The lng-term gal is a Cperative Actin Plan (CAP) t manage visitr use t prtect and enhance resurces and visitr experiences. The TMG and Cnfluence Research and Cnsulting (Cnfluence) held a Visitr Management Wrkshp in Octber 2016 t review existing infrmatin, brainstrm and priritize issues, and cnsider example management actins. Existing infrmatin and utput frm the wrkshp were summarized in a Visitr Management Assessment in February That dcument described lng-term visitatin trends, assessed recreatin supply and demand, characterized recreatin impacts, and priritized ht spts with visitr management issues. The Assessment als identified infrmatin gaps, and reviewed study ptins that might be used t fill them. Several f these were funded as part f the 2017 San Juan Islands Visitr Study, which is reprted in this dcument. The Visitr Study is designed t assess use levels and patterns; accmmdatin supply; resurce and experiential cnditins; visitr tlerances fr cnditins; and public acceptability f management actins that might address prblems r imprve experiences. This infrmatin was develped frm multiple surces and methds; the five majr elements f the study included: Visitatin analysis patterns and trends f visitatin t the islands frm Washingtn State Ferries, ther passenger ferries, cruise ships, airlines and charters, and private bats. Cunts and bservatins site-specific use infrmatin at attractin sites, specific park units, r alng rad segments. Accmmdatin inventry the number and types f accmmdatin used by visitrs t cmpare with visitatin estimates. Onsite survey ne-page survey f peple at attractin sites t evaluate crwding and facility cnditins, and characterize users (visitrs r residents). Ferry survey six-page survey f peple waiting fr ferries t Anacrtes cvering several tpics: respndent characteristics, recreatin participatin, attractins visited, reasns fr visiting, evaluatins f use densities at beach and marine viewing areas, and supprt fr management actins. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 1

7 Study prcess The Visitr Study was multi-faceted, with cmplex lgistics and multi-agency supprt. Majr steps in the prcess are summarized belw. Details abut specific study elements are summarized in the Methds chapter. The study was develped by researchers at Cnfluence in cperatin with the TMG steering cmmittee, with primary funding frm the Natinal Park Service (San Juan Natinal Histric Park) and San Juan Cunty (thrugh the Parks, Recreatin, and Fair and Land Bank). Onsite and ferry surveys were pre-tested amng TMG members in April WSF als reviewed reservatins-related questins n the ferry survey. Cunt/bservatin and nsite survey prtcls were develped during April 2017 fieldwrk. Training fr field technicians (t cnduct cunts/bservatins, nsite surveys, and ferry surveys) ccurred in May Technicians included staff, interns, and vlunteers assciated with several agencies and vlunteer grups, as well as staff frm Cnfluence (see Appendix A fr a list). Revised study frms and prtcls (e.g., maps, cunt/bservatin frms, survey lgs and frms, and fieldwrk schedules) were finalized in late May Cunts/bservatins and surveys were cnducted by technicians frm Memrial Day thrugh mid- September. There were sme lgistical and scheduling adjustments in respnse t staff changes, ferry schedule disruptins, and use levels. Data cding by vlunteer and Cnfluence staff ccurred frm mid-summer thrugh Nvember The accmmdatin inventry and visitatin analysis ccurred frm May thrugh Nvember, Analysis and initial results were develped by Cnfluence fr a series f public presentatins n San Juan, Orcas, and Lpez Islands, and t the TMG steering cmmittee, all in February This allwed stakehlders and the public t review majr findings and suggest additinal issues fr the draft reprt. Electrnic PDF files f the presentatins, which include hundreds f graphs and phts illustrating findings, are available n the SJI Cunty website. This Draft Study Reprt was develped by Cnfluence fr TMG, stakehlder, and public review in April and May A Final Study Reprt incrprating public and agency feedback (this dcument) was made available in June Organizatin f this dcument This reprt summarizes findings and suggests implicatins fr management. Fllwing a review f methds fr each study element (visitatin analysis, cunts/bservatins, accmmdatin inventry, nsite survey, and ferry survey), findings are rganized by tpics rather than by infrmatin surce (althugh bth are labeled). A final sectin suggests pssible management actins that might address issues and kick-start a multi-agency Cperative Actin Plan. Appendices in separate dcuments prvide additinal infrmatin abut methds and results (t reduce redundancy in the main reprt, results are smetimes given fr ne island nly). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 2

8 Methds Summary This chapter describes study bjectives and summarizes methds fr each study element. Additinal detail abut each element are prvided in appendices (a series f separate dcuments). Visitatin analysis Objectives included: Summarize lng term annual and summer visitatin trends. Characterize study year visitr use levels relative t recent years and lng-term trends. Identify time f day, daily, day f week, and seasnal use patterns. Describe relative visitatin frm different surces, including Washingtn State ferries (WSF), ther passenger ferries, cruise ships, private bats, airlines, and private aircraft. Describe relative visitatin t the three majr islands frm different surces. Assess ptential fr grwth in visitatin frm different surces. WSF data are typically available nly as quarterly averages by type f fare fr different rutes, which is useful fr explring lnger-term seasnal and annual use trends. Fr this study, WSF prvided ferry-by-ferry data fr summer 2017, which allwed mre detailed analyses f vehicles, passengers in vehicles, walk-ns, and bike-ns (as well as the sum f all = ttal riders). The study fcused n WSF island-bund ferries frm Anacrtes (t San Juan Island, Orcas, and Lpez). Analyses explred use by time f day, day f week, specific hliday weekends, and time f year. Ferry schedule disruptins due t maintenance issues ccurred frm July and August 6-9; these nn-representative perids were excluded frm analysis. Structured interviews and web research prvided estimates f nn-wsf transprtatin prviders during the 2017 seasn. The fcus was n typical and peak daily visitatin during the summer seasn. This included infrmatin frm Victria Clipper and Prt Twnsend passenger ferries Three cruise cmpanies (American Cruise Lines, Un-Cruise Adventures, and USA River Cruises). Several public and private marinas (including Prt f Friday Harbr, Shipyard Cve, and Rche Harbr n SJI; Cayu Quay, Deer Harbr, West Sund, and Rsari n Orcas; and Spencer s Landing Marina, Islander, and Island Marine Center n Lpez). Kenmre and San Juan Airlines FAA airprt statistics Additinal methds infrmatin and results fr the visitatin analysis element are summarized in Appendix B. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 3

9 Cunts and bservatins Objectives included: Summarize visitatin t specific attractin sites n the three main islands. Identify time f day, daily, day f week, and seasnal use patterns at thse sites. Cmpare average, typical peak, and maximum use levels at thse sites t establish baseline cnditins. Review ther surces f infrmatin abut use levels cllected by ther agencies as indicatrs f daily, weekly, r seasnal use. Organize cunt infrmatin t allw analysis f use relative t crwding evaluatins (frm nsite and ferry surveys) r facility capacity. Systematic cunts by study technicians r vlunteers ccurred at 30 different attractin sites n the three main islands. 11 lcatins n San Juan: Cattle Pint (DNR/BLM), American Camp, 4 th f July Beach, Suth Beach, Eagle Cve, Jacksn Beach, Westside Preserve, Lime Kiln, SJ Cunty Park, and Jacksn Beach. 8 lcatins n Orcas: Nrth Beach, Crescent Beach, Waterfrnt Park, Judd Cve, Cascade Lake Day Use area, Mt. Cnstitutin summit, Muntain Lake day use area, and Obstructin Pass State Park. 11 lcatins n Lpez: Ferry Landing (DOT), Odlin Park, Village, Hummel Lake, Spencer Spit, Fisherman Spit, Otis Perkins Park/Tmbl, Shark Reef, Agate Beach/Iceberg Pint, Watmugh Bay, and Blackie Brady Park. Cunts were scheduled at medium and higher use times t assess lcatins under lad with greater cngestin, crwding, r resurce impacts. A few lcatins n each island were initially scheduled t have cunts thrughut the entire summer, but early cunts were lw and technician effrt was directed elsewhere. Appendix C prvides mre detail abut the number f cunts by lcatin. In ttal, technicians cnducted 1,805 separate cunt-sessins at a given lcatin n a given date and time (ften while cunting multiple variables fr each lcatin; see belw). This ttal included 986 n San Juan, 229 n Orcas, and 590 n Lpez. The reduced numbers f cunts fr Lpez and Orcas were intentinal; the availability f additinal accurate traffic cunters at key lcatins n thse islands bviated the need fr mre frequent in-persn cunting. Fr each site, several types f cunts were made (depending n its site characteristics). Cunts might include peple, vehicles, bikes, sail/pwerbats, kayaks, bat trailers, r cmmercial recreatin vans. Fr sme sites, gegraphically-defined trail segments r areas were defined n maps s cunts culd be made systematically. Appendix C includes example maps fr key sites. Cunts fr sme trail segments (e.g., at Lime Kiln, Shark Reef) were standardized int densities (number f peple per 100 yards) and shwn n maps t illustrate relative use levels. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 4

10 While traveling between attractin sites n Lpez and San Juan Islands, sme technicians cnducted cunts alng rad segments f bicycles, mpeds, transit buses, tur buses, and prly parked vehicles. In ttal, technicians made 69 rad segment cunts n Lpez and 20 n San Juan. Use infrmatin cllected by ther rganizatins r agencies prvided additinal indicatrs f use levels n all three islands, as listed belw. Summaries are prvided in Appendix C. NPS rad cunters at American Camp and English Camp. State Park rad cunters at Lime Kiln, Mran, Mt. Cnstitutin rad, Obstructin Pass, Spencer Spit. BLM-spnsred trail/vehicle cunters at Watmugh Bay, Iceberg Pint, and Pint Clville. SJ Cunty cunts f kayak use thrugh San Juan Cunty Park. State Park campgrund ccupancy at Mran, Obstructin Pass, and Spencer Spit. Cunty campgrund ccupancy at San Juan Cunty Park, Fair campgrund, and Odlin Park. Mrage infrmatin frm Obstructin Pass and Spencer Spit State Park. NPS cumulative daily visitr cunts at English Camp and American Camp visitr centers. Visitr cunts at the Lime Kiln lighthuse by whale researcher Rbert Otis. Daily visitr cunts at FOLKS-perated visitr center at Lime Kiln. Additinal methds infrmatin and results fr the Cunts and Observatins element are prvided in Appendix C. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 5

11 Accmmdatin inventry Objectives included: Summarize the number and type f vernight accmmdatins n the three main islands. Create an updateable database that can track accmmdatin trends ver the years (and cmpare t estimates frm the visitatin analysis). Include several characteristics in the database t allw cmparisns between types f accmmdatin, including size, amenities, ratings, and csts. Categries f accmmdatin included: resrts/cnds; htel/mtels/inns; cabins; bed & breakfast inns; hstels; campgrunds; and vacatin rentals. Assess relative prprtins f accmmdatin f different types by island relative t visitatin demand trends. The inventry had tw main cmpnents: 1) vacatin rentals and 2) ther types f accmmdatins (e.g., htels, resrts, bed & breakfasts, campgrunds, etc.) Vacatin rentals are permitted by the Cunty differently than htels, but their characteristics are mre difficult t assess because permit details are in paper-based files. Study resurces were insufficient t cnduct a census f all vacatin rentals available n the three main islands, but Cnfluence reviewed a representative sample f 217 prperties frm internet research (97 frm San Juan, 60 frm Orcas, and 60 frm Lpez). This sample represents abut 25% f the prperties advertised n the VRBO and Airbnb websites (cnsidered the tw largest, with abut 9% verlap) n the three main islands. This is slightly less than the estimated ttal f all vacatin rentals (abut 950 based n active Cunty permits, which des nt include thse in the Twn f Friday Harbr). The vacatin rental sample was develped systematically by srting all available prperties by bedrm size, then selecting every n th prperty in the list fr a given island (until a quta was filled). Half f each island s sample came frm each website. Taken tgether, the methd prduces a representative sample f different sized prperties. Infrmatin abut ther types f accmmdatins were develped frm structured interviews and internet research. In ttal, we fund 88 separate accmmdatin prperties n the three main islands (44 n San Juan, 34 n Orcas, and 10 n Lpez). Fr each accmmdatin prperty, the database includes infrmatin abut its type, number f units, typical ccupancy (pillws r peple per unit), availability f pl/jacuzzi; availability f exercise facilities; availability f breakfast; availability f kitchen; whether the prperty has waterfrnt r water views; average star rating (if available); and duble rm cst. Additinal methds infrmatin and results fr the Accmmdatin inventry are prvided in Appendix D. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 6

12 Onsite survey Objectives included: Survey a representative sample f visitrs and residents wh are at key attractin sites n the three main islands. Describe prprtin f visitrs and residents at key attractin sites n the three main islands. Describe visitrs trip characteristics: islands visited, length f stay, grup size, type f accmmdatin, hme zip cde. Describe residents characteristics: hme island, years n island, mnths per year n island. Describe visitrs and residents attractin site visit: length f stay, hw they traveled t the site, times visiting per mnth. Assess perceived crwding at attractin sites (and while traveling t the site). Cmpare perceived crwding at different sites t ther lcatins in San Juans, western U.S. Assess facility cnditins at attractin sites. The nsite survey was ne page lng and self-administered, given t visitrs present at a lcatin during a sampled survey perid. Fr each lcatin, technicians ramed a designated rute (e.g., a shrt trail t a marine viewing area) r established a statin near the cmmn exit f the lcatin (e.g., a picnic table next t a parking lt). Survey perids were generally scheduled fr abut an hur, and technicians were instructed t cntact 4 t 10 grups during the perid (based n pre-testing survey length). Technicians used a script that included an intrductin and a prtcl fr randmly selecting a single persn in a grup t participate; Appendix E includes the script. Visitrs generally cmpleted the n-site questinnaire in the vicinity f the surveyr, wh answered questins and cllected the cmpleted surveys. If a grup refused t participate in the study, technicians estimated their grup size and nted the reasn fr refusal (see lg refusal frm in Appendix E). Target sample sizes and sampling times were develped fr specific lcatins n all three islands. In general, the gal was t cllect 100 surveys frm higher use sites and 50 t 70 surveys frm lwer use sites. Sample scheduling included similar numbers f week days and weekend days, and similar numbers f hurs during medium and higher use times. The study targeted few lwer use times. Onsite surveys were cnducted at 17 sites n the three main islands, but samples frm six sites were discntinued because f lw use r vlunteer technician shrtages. Sample sizes fr different lcatins are given in Table 1. Respnse rates fr nsite surveys were high (ver 96%). Appendix E prvides additinal infrmatin abut the nsite survey, including the survey instrument, script, and sample sizes fr each lcatin by time perids, days f week, and mnths fr each lcatin. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 7

13 Table 1. Onsite survey sample sizes by lcatin. Attractin site Sample size Cmments San Juan Island 537 Lime Kiln SP 356 Cunty Park 139 Westside Preserve 7 ~30 mre surveys frm SJI Naturalist Prgram cming. Suth Beach 20 Discntinued due t vlunteer shrtage. Cattle Pint 10 Discntinued due t vlunteer shrtage. Orcas Island 510 Cascade Lake day use area 136 Mt. Cnstitutin summit 134 Muntain Lake day use area 149 Obstructin Pass State Park 79 Crescent Beach 5 Discntinued due t lw visitr use. Waterfrnt Park 7 Discntinued due t lw, shrt-term visitr use. Lpez Island 497 Odlin Park 102 Spencer Spit 104 Shark Reef 112 Agate Beach/Iceberg Pint 56 Lwer use site. Watmugh Bay 107 Otis Perkins Park/Tmbl 16 Discntinued due t lw visitr use. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 8

14 Ferry survey Objectives included: Survey a representative sample f visitrs and residents n ferries bund fr Anacrtes (visitrs leaving the islands after their trip; residents travelling t the mainland during survey perids). Describe visitrs trip characteristics: islands and attractins visited, utdr recreatin activity participatin, length f trip, grup size, type f accmmdatin, number f previus trips t the San Juans, and hme zip cde. Describe residents characteristics: hme island, attractins visited in the previus week, utdr recreatin participatin, years n island, mnths per year n island, average trips per year t the mainland. Describe whether respndents made reservatins fr ferry trips, and whether thse were fr first chice dates and times. Assess perceived crwding at varius lcatins during their trip (r in past week, fr residents). Cmpare perceived crwding amng different sites, and t ther lcatins in the San Juans Islands and western U.S. Assess prprtins f visitrs and residents wh use different cping respnses when crwded. Describe the imprtance f different reasns fr visiting r living in the San Juan Islands. Evaluate different use densities at a generic 1) beach and 2) marine viewing area. Assess supprt and pririties fr a range f infrastructure, educatin, regulatin, and capacity management actins that might be used t address prblems r imprve experiences. The ferry survey was six pages lng and self-administered during sampled survey perids t visitrs present in the Anacrtes-bund ferry lines n the three main islands. Survey perids were generally scheduled fr abut 1 t 1.5 hurs befre a scheduled ferry departure. Technicians were instructed t cntact abut 10 grups during the perid (based n pretesting). Technicians were prvided a script that included an intrductin and prtcl fr randmly selecting a single persn in a grup t participate; Appendix F includes the script. Visitrs generally cmpleted the questinnaire in the vicinity f the surveyr, wh answered questins and cllected the cmpleted surveys. Target sample sizes were initially 400 frm Friday Harbr and 200 each frm Orcas and Lpez, fr 800 ttal. Ferry schedule disruptins and technician shrtages reduced thse targets; final sample sizes were 323 frm San Juan Island, 219 frm Orcas, 230 frm Lpez, fr a ttal f 772. The ferry survey sample included 631 visitrs and 141 nn-visitrs (including 112 residents and 29 wh were either cmmuters, cmmercial vehicle drivers, r unknwn). Sampling scheduling targeted similar numbers f week days and weekend days, and ferries in the mrning, afternn, and early evening. The study did nt target ferries during darkness due t safety cncerns; WSF permissin t cnduct the survey was cntingent n surveying during high visibility perids. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 9

15 The survey included vehicle-based and walk-n/bike-n passengers. Fr Friday Harbr, technicians targeted 7 t 8 vehicle-based grups and 2 t 3 walk- r bike-n grups (the rati f vehicle vs. walkn passengers n Friday Harbr rutes, based n WSF statistics). Fr Orcas and Lpez, they targeted 8 t 9 vehicle-based grups and 1 t 2 walk-n grups. Fr Friday Harbr and Orcas, walkn samples were challenging because these passengers are barded befre vehicles (with less time t cmplete the survey), they d nt have t wait in line like vehicle passengers, and there are several stres and ther facilities where they can wait fr the ferry t bard). Overall, 7% f the sample were walk-ns r bike-ns (5% Friday Harbr, 5% Orcas, and 10% Lpez). Appendix F prvides additinal infrmatin abut the ferry survey, including the survey instrument, script, and sample sizes by mnths fr each island. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 10

16 Findings Getting t the islands Washingtn State Ferry visitatin (frm WSF) Lng term annual trends Rider and vehicle trends n WSF ferries t the San Juan Islands have varied ver the past 15 years, prbably in respnse t fee and reginal ppulatin and ecnmic changes. Figure 1. Year-rund WSF use trends (riders and vehicles frm Anacrtes t all San Juan Islands). There has been a steady increase in WSF use since the recessin, althugh 2017 was similar t The number f vehicles appears t be increasing faster than the ttal number f riders in recent years. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 11

17 Lng-term summer visitatin trends Cmpared t year-rund use (Figure 1), summer vehicle use has nt increased as dramatically in recent years, as illustrated in Figure 2, which shws vehicles t each island (and inter-island). Figure 2. Annual trends fr vehicles n WSF in summer (Jul-Sep) (Anacrtes t the three main islands and n interisland rute). In general, mre vehicles take ferries t San Juan Island than Orcas, with Lpez far belw bth had lwer vehicle use t SJI and Orcas, while Lpez was steadier had several specific cnditins that may explain these results, including rainy/cld weather in early summer; ferry disruptins in July (three weeks) and early August (half a week); and fire/smke frm the mainland in August. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 12

18 Schedule disruptin Schedule disruptin Seasnal, day f the week, and hliday use patterns daily riders Daily use patterns during the highest use part f the summer seasn in 2017 illustrate seasnal, weekend, and hliday effects. Figure 3. Daily riders n WSF (drivers + passengers + walk-ns) in Typical weekend peaks (Friday and Saturday arrivals frm Anacrtes) are nearly duble the midweek trughs n all three rutes. July 4 weekend has a particularly high peak n San Juan Island the parade f visitrs attending the renwned parade in Friday Harbr. SJI has mre riders than Orcas, which has mre than Lpez. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 13

19 Ferry vehicle capacities It is challenging t estimate the vehicle capacity n any particular ferry sailing (r cumulative ttals fr days, weeks, mnths, r seasns) fr several reasns. At least three different ferry sizes are used n Anacrtes t San Juan Island rutes. On smaller ferries, the vehicle capacity is estimated abut 64, while mre typical larger ferries hld up t 124 r 144 vehicles (depending n the specific bat). Sme ferry sailings are direct frm Anacrtes t ne island, while thers share space t tw r mre islands. Fr example, the 11 pm last bat frm Anacrtes stps at all three islands. The number f sailings per day varies (e.g., mre frm the mainland n Fridays, mre t the mainland n Sundays). Ferry staff can fit mre vehicles n a ferry than its stated capacity depending upn the lengths, heights, and numbers f versized vehicles. Interviews with ferry staff indicate that the largest ferries (estimated capacity 144) with few versized vehicles may hld as many as 155 vehicles, but with mre versized vehicles may hld nly 120 t 130 vehicles. Nuances f the ferry reservatin and waitlist system (e.g., sme vehicle space is nt ffered fr reservatins t ensure sufficient capacity fr typical cmmercial vehicles) further cmplicate generalizatins abut the ttal daily number f vehicles that can be transprted t the islands. With the abve caveats, it is pssible t rughly estimate the peak seasn daily vehicle capacity t each island thrugh a sailing-by-sailing analysis frm Anacrtes t Friday Harbr has 5 t 6 larger direct ferries per day (n ther stps), and 2 ther ferries that share space with Lpez r Orcas. Taken tgether, these ffer space fr abut 900 t 1,100 vehicles per day (cmmercial and private). Anacrtes t Orcas has 5 direct ferries per day (n ther stps), and 2 t 3 ther ferries that share space with Lpez r San Juan. Taken tgether, these ffer space fr abut 800 t 1,000 vehicles per day (cmmercial and private). Anacrtes t Lpez has 5 direct ferries per day (n ther stps), and 2 t 3 ther ferries that share space with either Orcas r Friday Harbr. Taken tgether, these ffer space fr abut 500 t 700 vehicles per day (cmmercial and private). In additin t vehicle capacities, ferries als have passenger capacities, which include peple driving vehicles, passengers in vehicles, bike-ns, and walk-ns. Althugh there are differences fr ferries in different classes, passenger capacities range frm 750 t 2,000 (with 1,500 t 2,000 the mst cmmn capacity n Anacrtes rutes). Fr example, with 1,500-capacity ferries, the eight daily ferries culd bring abut 11,000 ttal passengers (assumes 1,500 capacities n six direct ferries, plus 2,000 frm tw ferries that share space with Orcas and Lpez rutes). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 14

20 Schedule disruptin Seasnal, day f the week, and hliday use patterns daily vehicles Summing daily vehicles acrss all sailings per day als shws daily, weekly, and seasnal user patterns. Ferry capacity (high estimate) Ferry capacity (lw estimate) Figure 4. Daily vehicles n WSF rutes t main San Juan Islands, If ne assumes the daily ferry vehicle capacity fr Anacrtes Friday Harbr is between 900 and 1,100 vehicles, there were n days when the actual number f vehicles reached this maximum. Similarly, there were nly a few days when the actual number f vehicles t Orcas reached the estimated capacity f 800 t 1000, and n days when the actual number f vehicles t Lpez reached the estimated capacity f 500 t 700. On mid-week days, actual numbers were ften 200 vehicles belw the lw estimated daily capacity n all three rutes. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 15

21 Space fr vehicles per day n busy days A clser lk at individual sailings illustrates when daily vehicle space is available, as shwn in an example frm the Friday f Labr Day weekend. Max large ferries = 144 Max medium ferries = 124 Figure 5. Example f vehicles n Anacrtes t Friday Harbr sailings n Friday f Labr Day Weekend. On ne f the busiest days f the year (the Friday befre Labr Day), at least sme ferry sailings (e.g., at 4:15 am, 6:25 am, and 11 pm) have space fr additinal vehicles. Assuming the mre ppular sailings frm 9 am thrugh 8 pm were larger ferries (which is typical), there may have been sme space n these bats (mst sailed with 110 t 130 vehicles, when the estimated capacity was 144). It is als pssible that sme f these ferries were cmpletely full because f versized vehicles r ther inefficiencies. Appendix B has graphs fr peak use days t Orcas and Lpez, shwing similar results. Analysis f typical days (including Fridays, Saturdays, and mid-week days) shws mre unused vehicle space n several sailings each day. The number f peple per vehicle (cmbining drivers and passengers, which are cunted separately by WSF) in summer 2017 averaged 2.1 peple fr San Juan ferries, 2.3 fr Orcas, and 1.8 fr Lpez. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 16

22 Given that mst private vehicles can accmmdate mre than 2 peple, it is fair t suggest there is space fr peple in vehicles n ferries, even n the busiest days. Winter and shulder seasns have lwer average numbers f fewer peple per vehicle; we dn t knw if summer visitrs d mre car sharing. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 17

23 Percent f respndents Evaluatins f reservatin and waitlist systems (frm ferry survey) The ferry survey included a questin abut respndents experience with the reservatin r waiting list system. The verbatim questin is belw; results are given in Figure 6 fr visitrs and nn-visitrs. Did yu make a reservatin fr this ferry? (Please check yes r n and check the bxes that apply) Yes and my reservatin was N because fr my first chice date and time I didn t knw abut the reservatin system fr my first chice date, but at a different time n reservatins were available fr a different date than my first chice my schedule was uncertain I knew there wuld be space n this ferry Other: All visitrs All nnvisitrs SJ visitrs Orcas visitrs Lpez visitrs Figure 6. Percent f ferry respndents making reservatins. Visitrs (72%) are slightly mre likely t make ferry reservatins than nn-visitrs (64%; which includes residents and cmmercial users). The percent f visitrs making reservatins was different fr the three islands: Orcas 83%, SJI 75%r, and Lpez 56%. Lpez visitrs were nt allwed t make reservatins n east-bund ferries; Lpez respndents reprting reservatins are referring t thse made n their west-bund ferry. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 18

24 Percent f respndents All visitrs All nn-visitrs Fr 1st chice date & time Fr 1st chice date, but different time Fr different date than first chice Figure 7. Amng thse making a reservatin, percent wh made a reservatin fr their 1) first chice date and time; 2) first chice date but different time; r 3) different date. Amng thse wh made reservatins, abut three quarters f bth visitrs and nn-visitrs gt their first chice date and time. Fr thse wh didn t get their first chice, mre gt a reservatin n a different ferry n the same date (18-20%) than a different date (3-6%). Differences between visitrs and nn-visitrs were small, suggesting that neither grup has an advantage making reservatins. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 19

25 Percent f respndents I didn't knw abut reservatin system N reservatins available All visitrs My schedule was uncertain All nn-visitrs I knew there wuld be space Other Figure 8. Percent reprting different reasns fr nt making a reservatin (fr ferry respndents wh did nt make a reservatin). Fr the 23% f visitrs wh did nt make a reservatin, abut 33% reprted that n reservatins were available and s they chse t get in the waiting line. This is abut 8% f the entire ferry visitr sample. Fr the 27% f nn-visitrs wh did nt make a reservatin, 35% reprted that n reservatins were available. This is abut 9% f the entire ferry nn-visitr sample. Other visitrs did nt make a reservatin because their schedule was uncertain (25%), they expected space withut reservatins (17%), r ther reasns (23%; see belw). Few did nt knw abut the reservatin system (5%). Nn-visitrs (including residents, cmmuting wrkers, and cmmercial drivers) were slightly mre likely than visitrs t reprt that they expected space t be available (20%), but less likely t reprt that their schedule was uncertain (5%). Abut 36% reprted ther reasns (see belw). Other write-in reasns included: I am a bike-n r walk-n; I had last minute plans; n cell service; reservatins are a hassle; and Lpez desn t take east-bund reservatins. Other write-in reasns fr nn-visitrs were nearly all abut Lpez nt taking east-bund reservatins, althugh a few made cmments abut ferry schedule changes, r reprted being a walk-n. Taken tgether, results suggest that mst ferry users have few prblems using the primary reservatin r secndary waiting list system. Over three quarters were able t make a reservatin, and f thse wh did nt, many expected t be accmmdated by waiting in line r recgnized that San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 20

26 their schedule uncertainty was a prblem. In general, the price fr nt getting a reservatin was waiting in the line fr nn-reservatin space. Results are cnsistent with anecdtal evidence frm interviews with ferry staff, wh reprt it is almst always pssible t accmmdate all the vehicles by the end f a day (althugh sme peple may have t wait fr the last ferry). Ride-n bicycles Per day numbers n different rutes WSF des nt reprt the number f bicycles n vehicles (althugh thse might affect the fare charged because it changes a vehicle length r width). Hwever, WSF recrds ride-n bicycles, which indicate bicycle visitatin patterns. Figure 9. Average, 75%, and maximum ride-n bicycles per day n ferry rutes in peak seasn. There is cnsiderably mre ride-n bicycle use t Lpez than San Juan Island, with Orcas far belw bth. Peak ride-n cycle use is mre than twice the average level, and additinal analysis identified a clear weekend peak pattern. Frm a limited number f ferry unlading cunts in Friday Harbr, the average number f bicycles n the back f vehicles was abut 10 per sailing (abut 1 bike fr every 12 cars). If this rati remains cnsistent, abut bicycles arrive n San Juan Island n an average day. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 21

27 Ride-n bicycles by time f day Ride-n bicycle infrmatin als illustrated interesting time f day patterns. Figure 10. Percent f ride-n bicycles n ferries at different times t Friday Harbr (tp left) and Lpez (bttm right) WSF des nt limit the number f ride-n bicycles n any ferry sailing, s ride-n cyclists are nt cnstrained by the reservatin r waitlist systems (unlike vehicles). Given the ability t ride n any ferry frm Anacrtes, data in Figure 10 shws a clear preference fr the first reasnably early ferry (9:05-9:30), with declining numbers thrugh the rest f the day. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 22

28 Walk-ns by day f the week WSF recrds the number f walk-n passengers (thse wh have n vehicle n bard), which vary by island and day f the week. Figure 11. Percent f walk-ns by day f the week n different rutes. San Juan Island has mre walk-n passengers (23 t 33% f all riders) than Orcas (12 t 22%) r Lpez (10 t 15%). The prprtin f walk-ns increases tward the end f the week, with the highest number n Saturdays and Sundays. These may be day users and weekenders wh dn t need a car r bike, peple wh have a vehicle n the island, r peple jining the rest f their grup (wh brught a vehicle earlier). Higher walk-n use makes sense fr Friday Harbr because the ferry landing is in the village, with several visitr services, accmmdatins, and rental agencies (cars, bikes, and mpeds/scters), and a transit system (tw cmpanies with limited rutes t majr attractins). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 23

29 Other passenger ferries The Victria Clipper is a passenger-nly ferry perating between Seattle and Friday Harbr. It has a frmal capacity f 200, and perates daily in the peak seasn (weekends nly in the shulder seasn). It is usually full in peak seasn, especially n weekends. The Clipper arrives in Friday Harbr just after midday and allws passengers t 1) stay n bard fr a tw hur marine wildlife viewing tur arund the islands; 2) disembark and return n anther day; r 3) disembark fr abut tw hurs f turing Friday Harbr. Based n interviews with Clipper staff, abut ne third disembark, but mst f thse return t Seattle the same day. In ttal, this passenger ferry typically lands less than 60 peple per day in Friday Harbr, and mst f thse nly stay the afternn. There is als a daily passenger ferry frm Prt Twnshend t Friday Harbr, althugh this ship als markets n-water turs rather than pint-t-pint services. Based n interviews with staff, the ship s capacity is 70 passengers and few disembark in Friday Harbr. Cruise ships At least three small cruise ship lines ffer trips thrugh the San Juan Islands, with ships making shrt day-lng stps at the three main islands. All trips ccur in spring (Mar-May) r fall (Sep-Nv), and scheduling appears t distribute different ships in different weeks. Ships appear t limit their stps t mid-week days, with nly ne island cvered per day. Based n itinerary descriptins, stps in Friday Harbr feature village shpping r a trip t Lime Kiln, while stps in Orcas feature hiking and sightseeing in Mran State Park. The ships range in size frm 22 t 76 t 200 passengers. Taken tgether, at peak use times these cruise lines deliver less than 100 peple per day t any given island n ccasinal days during narrw shulder seasns. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 24

30 Airline visitatin Kenmre Air Based n FAA statistics, this airline appears t carry abut 70% f the air passengers between the islands and Seattle. The airline ffers 5 t 6 flights in up t three wheeled planes (with a max f 8 passengers) per day t Friday Harbr airprt. Similarly, they ffer 5 t 6 flights in as many as three sea planes (with a maximum f 9 passengers) t dcks in Friday Harbr. The airline shifts planes t fllw demand (mre incming passengers tward the end f a week; mre utging passengers fllwing a weekend). In peak seasn, Kenmre may carry 100 t 150 peple per day t Sand Juan Island, 50 t 80 t Orcas, and 10 t 30 t Lpez. Other charter airlines San Juan Airlines ffers scheduled flights frm Anacrtes and Bellingham t Friday Harbr and is the ther majr carrier t the islands. They deliver abut 20 t 40 peple int Friday Harbr per day during peak seasn. They perate 3 t 4 flights per day in up t tw planes that can carry 3 t 5 passengers. Three ther smaller airlines ffer charter r air taxi trips t utlying islands r ther lcatins. Based n FAA statistics, they accunt fr abut 6% f cmmercial air traffic int Friday Harbr Airprt. Itinerant private planes Based n interviews and limited FAA statistics, it appears that a maximum f 50 peple n private planes use Friday Harbr per day during peak seasn, with abut half that n Orcas. The percentage f these peple wh are resident vs. visiting is unknwn. Summary f air-based visitatin Taken tgether, airlines and private planes currently deliver a maximum number f 210 t 360 peple per day t all three islands, based n the fllwing island-specific estimates. 150 t 250 peple per day t San Juan Island; 50 t 80 t Orcas; and 10 t 30 t Lpez. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 25

31 Private bat visitatin Transient bats using SJI marinas and mrage There are 17 public, club, r cmmercial marinas n the three main San Juan Islands (8 n San Juan, 6 n Orcas, and 3 n Lpez). Marinas range in size frm 8 (e.g., West Beach n Orcas) t ver 500 slips (Prt f Friday Harbr). Slip cunts can be challenging because sme are lngitudinal dcks and the number f bats they accmmdate depends n individual bat lengths. Based n interviews with marina peratrs, web site research, and aerial pht cunts, the three main islands have marina slips fr abut 1,940 bats (1,260 n San Juan; 425 n Orcas; and 254 n Lpez). This des nt include dzens f private dcks at private residences. There are als several well-knwn anchrages where cruising bats either mr r anchr n trips t the islands. Based n mid-summer aerial phts, these have accmmdated at least 270 bats per night (130 n San Juan, 60 n Orcas, and 80 n Lpez), as well as many n utlying islands (e.g., Sucia, Matia, Stuart). This is a cnservative estimate because there is space fr mre bats in these anchrages. Taken tgether, the three main San Juan Islands culd accmmdate abut 2,200 bats per night (assumes all slips are used and typical numbers f bats are mred/anchred). It is challenging t estimate San Juan visitatin frm private bats using these slips, because different types f baters ccupy these spaces by day and vernight, including Liveabards wh use their bats as a hme, and are nt visitrs; Full-time residents wh live n the island and are nt visitrs; Part-time residents wh wn a vacatin hme n the island, and keep their bat there t. Sme f these may act like residents because they spend the entire summer n the island, but sme may visit less frequently and act mre like visitrs. Nn-residents wh dn t have a hme n the islands, but keep their bat there. Sme f these are de fact visitrs using their bat as a htel during their visit t the three main islands, but thers may spend mre time sailing/bating r visiting utlying islands. Transient baters wh visit the islands by bat nly n a specific trip smetimes fr the day and smetimes vernight; these are the nly grup that are clearly visitrs t the three main islands. Based n discussins with several marina peratrs, these prprtins vary by facility and can be hard t estimate. Fr example, there appear t be higher prprtins f nn-resident and transient baters at Friday Harbr (abut 50%), cmpared t smaller private marinas whse slips are primarily ccupied by full-time residents r part-timers wh spend the entire summer in the islands. Based n interviews, we have assumed that abut 20% f all slips are used by nn-residents and transient baters, wh shuld be cnsidered visitrs. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 26

32 Estimating visitatin frm private bats als requires estimates f peple per bat, which varies by size and type f bat. The west regin average frm the Natinal Recreatinal Bating Survey (USCG, 2012) was 3.4 peple per pwerbat and 2.6 per sailbat; fr this analysis we assumed 3.0 peple per bat. Occupancy levels are als variable at the marinas. Althugh Saturday nights and hliday weekends are smetimes full, mid-week and shulder seasn perids have mre availability. Applying these assumptins (20% f slips ccupied by visiting baters, 100% f anchrages ccupied by visiting baters, and 3.0 peple per bat), we estimate peak weekend private bat visitatin as fllws: San Juan Island abut 600 peple per day Orcas Island abut 250 peple per day Lpez Island abut 100 peple per day Ttal fr three main islands abut 950 peple per day San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 27

33 Peple arriving per day Ttal visitatin frm all surces Example maximum daily visitatin A theretical maximum daily visitatin estimate can be generated frm varius surces by making assumptins abut capacities frm each surce. 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Theretical Max 2017 Typical peak Average WSF Other passsenger ferries Airlines Private bats Figure 12. Estimated number f peple arriving per day t San Juan Island: 1) theretical maximum; 2) highest use in 2017; 3) typical peak in recent years; and 4) average in recent years. Using San Juan Island as an example in Figure 12, we assumed: 8 ferries x 1,400 passengers per day = 11,200 (includes drivers, passengers, and walk-ns) 250 frm ther ferries r cruise ships 200 frm airlines and private airplanes 1,600 frm private bats (assumes 20% f all slips ccupied by visiting baters + 10% f anchrages) The 2017 maximum assumes the highest use levels reprted fr any day frm WSF, ther passenger ferries, and airlines. Fr private bating use, we assumed 15% higher than average peaks. The 2017 typical peak assumes numbers fr peak weekends in the summer, but nt the maximum days. Fr private bating use, we assumed average peaks. The 2017 average assumes averages. Fr private bating use, we assumed 15% belw average peaks. This analysis shws that the number f peple that culd arrive per day (the theretical maximum) is rughly three times higher than the highest use days in 2017, and five times higher than average levels. It als shws that WSF is the dminant surce f existing and ptential use, private bating San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 28

34 visitatin is nticeable but small, and airlines and ther passenger ferries cntribute smaller amunts. Similar analyses have been cnducted fr Orcas and Lpez islands are shwn in Figure 13 belw. Des the WSF system r ther surces cnstrain visitatin? Taken tgether, this transprtatin infrmatin suggests several cnclusins. Figure 13. Estimated number f peple arriving per day t Orcas (bttm left) and Lpez Island (tp right): 1) theretical maximum; 2) highest use in 2017; 3) typical peak in recent years; and 4) average in recent years. Space is scarce fr vehicles n ppular WSF sailings (in the middle f the day) n higher use days (weekends and hlidays) during the peak seasn (Memrial Day thrugh Labr Day weekends). This scarcity might influence an individual visitr s decisin nt t travel t the San Juans (as suggested by anecdtal reprts). There is unused space fr vehicles n tw t three ferries each day, even n the busiest days f the year. There is unused space fr vehicles n mst ferries (even mid-day) during the middle f the week, and almst all days during shulder seasns. There is space fr thse withut vehicles (walk-ns and bike-ns) n every ferry, and passenger space inside vehicles with reservatins). Althugh nt always available fr first-chice days and times, this available space allws cnsiderably mre visitatin than recent year peaks. Other methds transprt visitrs t the islands, but these are minimal cmpared t WSF. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 29

35 Visitr characteristics This sectin f the reprt summarizes infrmatin abut visitrs frm the nsite and ferry survey samples. The ferry infrmatin better represents typical visitrs t each island, while the nsite survey better represents visitrs t attractin sites. Which islands d they visit? (frm nsite and ferry survey) The nsite survey asked visitrs t indicate the islands they will visit n this trip and the island where they are staying tnight. The ferry survey asked visitrs t please write the number f days yu spent n each island. Figure 14. Percent f San Juan nsite survey visitrs wh visited different islands 1) during their trip, r 2) will stay at least ne night. Figure 14 prvides an example frm San Juan Island ferry visitrs shws hw mst visitrs travel t r stay n ne island nly, althugh abut 25% visit and abut 15% stay vernight n ther islands. Infrmatin develped fr the ther tw islands shws a similar pattern, as summarized belw. Lpez visitrs are mre likely t visit San Juan Island (29%) than Orcas (18%), with less than 4% staying vernight n either. Orcas visitrs are mre likely t visit San Juan Island (20%) than Lpez (6%), with less than 5% staying vernight n either. Less than 5% f Orcas r Lpez visitrs g t islands ther than the main three. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 30

36 Figure 15. Percent f visitrs t each island that reprt visiting ther islands (frm ferry survey). Figure 15 shws ferry survey results fr all three islands. Fewer ferry respndents travel t multiple islands than nsite respndents. Onsite respndents prbably seek attractins mre than the general visitr ppulatin, wh may fcus mre n relaxing at their accmmdatins. San Juan-surveyed visitrs are mre likely t visit ther islands. This is cnsistent with San Juan Island s higher prprtin f first-time visitrs wh seek attractins. In cntrast, Lpez-surveyed visitrs are the least likely t g t ther islands, which fits with its higher prprtin f visitrs staying with friends/family and lwest prprtin f first-time visitrs. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 31

37 Number f days n each island The ferry survey asked visitrs t please write the number f days yu spent n each island, which was analyzed fr visitrs t each island. Figure 16. Average days spent n each island (by visitrs frm each island; frm ferry survey). San Juan Island visitrs tend t stay the shrtest amunt f time (an average f abut 2.5 days) cmpared t Orcas and Lpez visitrs (abut 3.5). Of thse visitrs wh g t multiple islands, many stay mre than ne day n thse ther islands. One interpretatin is that peple n lnger trips (e.g., ne week) are the mst likely t visit multiple islands and stay mre than ne night n each. Nte: The averages fr visit ther islands (e.g., San Juan visitrs wh g t Orcas r Lpez) are frm small samples f visitrs wh visited multiple islands, and prbably ver-estimate ttal trip lengths. Better estimates f ttal trip length cme frm a different questin as discussed belw. Visitrs culd als write-in utlying islands they visited, and abut 5% did. The mst frequently named included Pearl Island, Henry Island, Stuart Island, James Island, Sucia Island, Jnes Island, and Shaw Island. A few named Fidalg, Vancuver, and the Gulf Islands (nt in the San Juans). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 32

38 Getting t attractin sites (nsite survey) Onsite visitrs were asked hw did yu travel t this lcatin? by circling ne f the fllwing: wn vehicle, rental vehicle, wn bike, rental bike, bus, r specify ther. Figure 17. Percent f visitrs and residents wh take different types f transprtatin t San Juan Island attractin sites. Mst peple use vehicles t access attractin sites (abut 75-85% fr wn and rented vehicles cmbined). Very few use bicycles (5-10%) r bus transit (less than 4%). Additinal analysis suggests visitrs reprting rentals are mre frequently referring t vehicles rented as part f a larger trip rather than n the San Juan Islands. Results were similar fr Orcas and Lpez, althugh higher prprtins f Lpez visitrs use bicycles (10%). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 33

39 Prprtin f visitrs & residents at attractin sites The nsite survey asked visitrs t chse whether they were a visitr r resident. The prprtin f visitrs and residents at each nsite lcatin with sufficient samples are given belw. Figure 18. Percent f visitrs and residents in nsite survey samples fr different attractin sites n San Juan (tp left), Orcas (tp right) and Lpez (bttm). Abut 90% f peple at San Juan Island attractin sites are visitrs cmpared t abut 80% fr Orcas and Lpez. Suth Beach and Westside Preserve have the highest prprtins f residents n San Juan Island, Crescent Beach and Cascade Lake n Orcas, and Odlin Park and Otis Perkins/Tmbl n Lpez San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 34

40 Length f visit Ttal trip length amng ferry survey visitrs Ferry survey visitrs were asked Hw many days did yu spend in the San Juan Islands n this trip? Figure 19. Percent f ferry survey visitrs reprting different trip lengths Amng ferry survey visitrs, 2-4 day (weekend) trips were much mre cmmn than day r weeklng trips. Average trip lengths were 2.5 days fr San Juan visitrs, 3.7 fr Orcas visitrs, and 3.6 fr Lpez visitrs. Cmpared t San Juan, Orcas and Lpez had lwer percentages f day trippers. Nearly a third f San Juan visitrs were day trippers, even thugh nly 5% were walk-ns. This indicates that mst day trippers bring private vehicles. Very few visitrs spend lnger than a week n the islands. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 35

41 Trip length amng nsite survey visitrs Onsite survey visitrs were asked Hw many days will yu spend in the San Juan Islands n this trip? Figure 20. Percent f nsite survey visitrs reprting different trip lengths Fr San Juan (tp left), Orcas (tp right), and Lpez (bttm). Amng nsite survey visitrs, San Juan Island has the mst day trippers (19%), while Orcas and Lpez have less than 7%. The mst cmmn length f stay fr San Juan and Lpez attractin site visitrs was 2 t 4 days, cnsistent with the weekend peaks in WSF use patterns. Mre Orcas attractin site visitrs reprted staying lnger, perhaps because Orcas sites were in Mran State Park where week-lng camping trips are cmmn. The median trip length fr San Juan and Lpez was 3.0 days; fr Orcas it was 4.0. These data were fr visitrs surveyed at attractin sites, which may nt represent average visitrs as well as the ferry survey. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 36

42 Grup size Grup sizes amng ferry survey visitrs Ferry survey visitrs were asked t reprt Hw many peple were in yur grup n this trip? Figure 21. Peple per grup n different islands (frm ferry survey) Amng ferry survey visitrs, grup sizes were typically small with highest prprtins 1-2 r 3-5. San Juan visitrs had average grup sizes f 3.8, Orcas 4.8, and Lpez 5.7. Averages are slightly inflated by utliers such as large family reunin, tur, r scut grups (the latter included tw reprted grup sizes f ver 100). Rughly 3% f ferry survey visitrs were in such grups. Onsite visitrs were asked a similar questin. Average grup sizes were similar fr nsite and ferry visitrs (3.0 fr all visitrs), but distributins were slightly different. In general, nsite visitrs tended t be slightly larger (mre with 3-5 and 6-10 peple; fewer with 1-2 peple). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 37

43 Where d visitrs live? Residency f ferry survey respndents Questins n the nsite and ferry surveys asked visitrs t reprt their residency zip cde. The ferry survey prvides the best estimate f typical visitrs t the islands. Mexic 1% Rest f Eurpe 2% Other internatinal.3% Suth 11% Nrtheast 4% Midwest 7% Western Washingtn 40% Western states ther than WA 27% Rest f Canada 0.3% Eastern Washingtn 4% BC / Vancuver Island 2% Figure 22. Residency f visitrs respnding t the ferry survey (all islands). Abut 40% f visitrs t the San Juan Islands reside in Western Washingtn, with mst f thse living in the greater Seattle cunties that brder Puget Sund. There are mre visitrs frm ther western states (27%) than frm eastern Washingtn (4%), with 22% frm ther parts f the cuntry. There are less than 5% internatinal visitrs, with abut half f thse cming frm Canada. Of the Canadians, mst are frm BC and Vancuver Island (part f the wider Salish Sea regin). Onsite survey visitrs were asked residency as well. They are less likely t be frm Western Washingtn (25%) than ferry survey visitrs (40%), suggesting that reginal visitrs frm Western Washingtn are less likely t visit attractin sites. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 38

44 Previus visitatin t the San Juan Islands (frm ferry survey) Ferry survey visitrs were asked t reprt the number f previus times they had visited the San Juan Islands. Figure 23 summarizes averages, medians, and frequency distributins by categry. Figure 23. Reprted previus visitatin t the San Juan Islands. Ferry survey visitrs were asked t reprt the number f previus times they had visited the San Juan Islands. San Juan Island has the highest prprtin f first-time visitrs. Lpez visitrs were mst likely t be repeat visitrs, with an average f 10 trips (median = 5) cmpared t San Juan (average 5.6; median 2.0) r Orcas (average 5.5, median 2.0). Respndents in the ver 20 categry included peple wh wrte in respnses such as dzens r hundreds, which were nt included in averages. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 39

45 Recreatin participatin during their visit (frm ferry survey) Ferry survey respndents were asked t Please check all the utdr activities yu have dne during yur visit (if a resident, check activities yu have dne in the past week). 14 activities were listed n survey, and the percent checking each activity is shwn belw. Figure 24. Percent f ferry respndents reprting participatin in different recreatin activities. Hiking n trails r shrelands were the tp activities. Five f the seven mst ppular activities are water prximate, highlighting the imprtance f marine and lake envirnments. Cmmercial recreatin activities were listed by few visitrs (13% fr whale watching; 6% fr kayaking), and even fewer residents. There are sme differences between visitrs and residents in participatin rates, but they are generally small, and the rank rderings are similar. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 40

46 Recreatin participatin differences between islands (frm ferry survey) Differences between ferry survey visitrs t the three different islands are given in Figure 25. Figure 25. Visitr participatin in recreatin activities: differences between islands. Rank rderings f activities were similar acrss islands. Differences between participatin rates fit with resurces n each island. Fr example, Lpez visitrs were mre likely t hike shrelands, beachcmb, and bicycle, which fits with that island s public lands (e.g., Shark Reef, Spencer Spit, Fisherman s Spit, Iceberg Pint, and Watmugh Bay) and its reputatin fr biking. Similarly, Orcas has ntably higher swimming participatin, which fits with the availability f warmer swimming pprtunities in Cascade Lake. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 41

47 Resident characteristics (frm ferry and nsite survey) Bth the nsite and ferry survey samples included self-reprted residents f the San Juan Islands, but each has sme limitatins in representing island residents. The ferry resident sample (n=141) prbably ver-represents thse wh travel t the mainland mre frequently, while the nsite sample (n=241) ver-represents residents thse wh use attractin sites mre frequently. With thse caveats, these tw samples can prvide sme teasers abut resident characteristics, and suggest tpics fr a largerscale survey designed t accurately represent residents. Which island d residents live n? (frm nsite survey) 92% f residents surveyed at San Juan Island attractin sites live n that island, and thers reprted living n utlying islands; nne reprted living n Orcas r Lpez. 88% f residents surveyed at Orcas Island attractin sites live n that island. Seven percent reprted living n San Juan, 3% n Lpez, and 1% n Shaw. 87% f residents surveyed at Lpez Island attractin sites live n that island. Eight percent reprted living n San Juan, 4% n Orcas, and the 1% n Shaw r reprted cmmuting. Mnths per year living n the island (frm bth surveys) Table 2. Percent f residents reprting residence duratins n the islands. San Juan Orcas Lpez Onsite survey (percentages) Percent year rund residents t 9 mnths t 6 mnths Less than 4 mnths n Ferry survey (percentages) Percent year rund residents t 9 mnths t 6 mnths Less than 4 mnths n % f residents surveyed at attractin sites live n the islands year-rund (defined here as ver 9 mnths), with few differences between islands. Mst residents surveyed at the ferry were als year-rund residents, althugh these data shw bigger differences between islands. The nsite survey shws higher prprtins f San Juan residents (20%) fit int the summer-nly categry by staying less than fur mnths, cmpared t Orcas (12%) r Lpez (10%). Hwever, the pattern is different fr the ferry survey. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 42

48 Years living n the islands (frm bth surveys) The nsite and ferry surveys asked residents t reprt the number f years they had lived n the islands; results are given in Table 3. Table 3. Average and median years residents reprt living n San Juan Islands. San Juan Orcas Lpez Onsite survey Percent 3 years r less Average Median Ferry survey Percent 3 years r less Average Median Averages are generally higher than medians because f a few high utlier respnses (peple wh have lived n the islands fr 30 plus years). Medians prvide a better estimate f the typical length f residence. Residents surveyed at attractin sites reprt living n the islands fewer years n San Juan and Orcas (median 9) cmpared t Lpez (median 15). Similarly, there are higher prprtins f relative newcmers (less than three years) n San Juan and Orcas. Cmpared t the nsite survey, residents surveyed at the ferry reprt lnger residency n the islands fr San Juan and Orcas (while medians fr Lpez were similar). Taken tgether, Lpez has mre lng-term residents and smaller prprtins f new-cmers than the ther tw islands. Frequency f site visits (frm nsite surveys) The residents visiting attractin sites were asked t reprt the number f times per mnth they visited that site. San Juan residents visiting attractin sites reprted visiting a median f 4 times per mnth; 25% reprted visiting 10 times per mnth r mre. Orcas residents visiting attractin sites reprted visiting a median f 5 times per mnth; 18% reprted visiting 10 times per mnth r mre. Lpez residents visiting attractin sites reprted visiting a median f 4 times per mnth; 25% reprted visiting 10 times per mnth r mre. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 43

49 Number f trips t mainland per year (frm ferry survey) Residents surveyed at the ferry were asked t reprt the number f trips t the mainland per year. Figure 26. Reprted trips t mainland per year by ferry survey residents. Fr all residents tgether (n=141), abut 54% take 12 r less trips per mnth t the mainland, while 46% take 13 r mre trips per year. Few residents (abut 3%) take mre than ne trip per week. The median number f trips per year was 15; the average was 22 (but this was affected by high utliers). Medians were 10 n San Juan and Orcas, but 20 n Lpez. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 44

50 Reasns fr visiting (frm ferry survey) Ferry survey visitrs were asked t rate the imprtance (n a 5 pint scale) f 15 different attributes f the San Juan Islands. The frmat f the survey questin and attributes are listed belw: Peple enjy the San Juan Islands fr many reasns; please rate the fllwing reasns fr yu. (Circle ne number fr each rw.) Nt at all imprtant Slightly imprtant Mderately imprtant Very imprtant Reasns list Etc Extremely imprtant The relaxed pace f life being n island time Gd chice f htels, inns, B&Bs, r huse rentals Lcal stres and restaurants Lcal arts and crafts Lcal fds Friendliness f the lcal peple Lively village scene Cultural histry f the islands Natural / rural scenery Beach / shre / bluff / headlands hiking Frest / muntain hiking Marine wildlife viewing Bating, sailing, r kayaking Biking n rural rads The experience f riding n the ferry Results can be analyzed by average imprtance (allwing statistical cmparisns between grups and attributes; Figure 27). Frequency distributins (percent f respnses fr each attribute) are prvided in Appendix F. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 45

51 Figure 27. Average imprtance ratings f 15 pssible reasns fr visiting the San Juan Islands. Purple bars = natural resurce-related reasns Green bars = scial setting-related reasns Rse bars = turism develpment/facility-related reasns Gld bar = ferry experience reasn Fur f the five mst imprtant reasns (purple bars) are related t natural resurces and ccur n public land. Amng the scial setting reasns, mre imprtance is placed n the friendliness f lcals and a relaxed pace f life than a lively village scene. This fits with the visitr prfile infrmatin shwing many visitrs are frm Seattle r ther lcatins that have mre urban attractins, and the San Juans are renwned fr a slwer pace and rural atmsphere. Sme cmmn develped turism attributes (e.g., restaurants, htels, shps, and arts) are rated less imprtant than natural resurce-based and scial setting attributes. The experience riding the ferry is mderately imprtant, but rates lwer than many ther attributes f the islands. The lw rating fr biking rural rads fits with the small prprtin f the ferry survey brught r rented bikes. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 46

52 Reasns fr visiting: Differences between islands There were several interesting differences in imprtance rating between islands; statistically significant (p<.05) differences are shwn in Figure 28. A red utline is shwn arund the island(s) that are different frm the ther island(s). Figure 28. Cmparing average imprtance ratings f reasns fr visiting different San Juan Islands. Results generally fit with different islands reputatins: San Juan respndents rated cultural histry and lively village scene mre imprtant than Orcas and Lpez respndents. San Juan and Orcas rated lcal arts, stres/restaurants, and accmmdatin higher than Lpez. San Juan and Lpez ferry experience higher than Orcas. Orcas rated frest/muntain hiking higher than San Juan and Lpez. Orcas and Lpez rated natural/rural scenery higher than San Juan. Lpez rated biking higher than San Juan, which rated biking higher than Orcas. All islands were similar n friendliness f lcals (nt shwn here) San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 47

53 Reasns fr living in the San Juans Residents frm the ferry survey were asked t rate the same 15 reasns fr living in the San Juans. Average imprtance ratings are given in Figure 28, using the same clr scheme fr different types f reasns. Figure 29. Average imprtance ratings f 15 pssible reasns fr living in the San Juan Islands (amng residents frm ferry survey). Purple bars = natural resurce-related reasns Green bars = scial setting-related reasns Rse bars = turism develpment/facility-related reasns Gld bar = ferry experience reasn Rank-rder imprtance f reasns was similar t visitrs, with natural resurce and slw-paced scial settings higher than turism develpment. Residents rated a relaxed pace f life statistically higher than visitrs, pssibly accentuating the link between this ften-mentined attribute and islanders identity. Residents als rated bating, sailing, and kayaking higher than visitrs, pssibly reflecting greater access t craft that allw thse activities. Visitrs rated chice f htels/accmmdatin and lcal arts/crafts higher than residents, reflecting interest in cmmn turism cncerns. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 48

54 Where d they stay? An accmmdatin inventry This sectin f the reprt reviews the range f accmmdatin used by San Juan Island visitrs. It includes an inventry f typical turist accmmdatins (e.g., htels, inns, B&Bs, hstels, cnds, and campgrunds), and a separate inventry f vacatin rentals (e.g., VRBO, Airbnb). Range f typical turist accmmdatins A list f 76 vernight businesses (San Juan 41, Orcas 28, Lpez 7) was develped using internet research and structured interviews. Appendix D prvides additinal details abut this inventry, and an updateable database that will be made available t the Cunty at the cnclusin f this study. The San Juan Islands have a diversity f accmmdatin types that differ by size, lcatin, and amenities. Majr types range frm luxury spa resrts, bed and breakfasts, vintage cabins, hstels, mdern htels, and blcks f cnds, t mdest mtel rms with shared bathrms. Althugh definitins f these different accmmdatin types can be less than precise, and sme accmmdatin wners use these labels haphazardly, ur database attempts t classify each facility int ne f the fllwing: Resrts Larger htel cmplexes, ften with a mix f htel, cnd, and cabin units. Mst have multiple additinal amenities such as a marina, pl, exercise facilities, etc. Htels multiple private rms (usually mre than 10), central lbby, in a building that is nt a frmer huse. May have additinal amenities such as restaurants. Inns multiple private rms, but usually less than 10, in buildings that may be a cnverted hme. B&Bs typically hmes that ffer a small number f rms; must serve breakfast. Cabins typically smaller rustic hmes (r a series f cabins) ffered fr shrt-term rentals. Hstels typically a mix f shared and private rms, with shared restrms. Campgrunds RV r tent sites. May include glamping r sft-side semi-permanent units (e.g., nsite yurts, cabins) as part f the larger cmplex. Usually shared bathrms. Fr each entry, the database includes infrmatin abut its lcatin; type; number f units (rms r sites); largest unit (peple); availability f pl r Jacuzzi; availability f a restaurant; availability f exercise facilities; availability f breakfast; availability f kitchen units; whether the lcatin is n the waterfrnt r has a water view; its star rating (if knwn); average cst fr a duble ccupancy unit; and estimate f maximum ccupancy (number f units multiplied by an assumed number f peple per unit). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 49

55 Ttal accmmdatins by type Simple cunts f the number f accmmdatins f different types illustrate several differences between the islands. Cabin B&B Htel Inn Cnds Hstel Resrt Ttal Lpez Orcas San Juan Camping Other* Number f accmmdatins Figure 30. Number f accmmdatins f different types n each island (and all islands). The inventry shws there are cnsiderably mre htels, inns, and B&Bs n San Juan than the ther tw islands, and that Lpez has the fewest accmmdatins. Nte: The Other categry includes yurts, RVs, and huses within a campgrund/resrt setting. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 50

56 Prprtin f accmmdatins with different amenities The database tracks different amenities acrss the inventry, further suggesting hw accmmdatins differ n each island. Figure 31. Percent f accmmdatins with different amenities. Nearly half f all accmmdatins have units with kitchens. Abut ne quarter t ne-third serve breakfasts r have restaurants. Only abut 10% have exercise facilities (except n Lpez,). Abut half f the accmmdatins n Orcas and Lpez have pls r Jacuzzis. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 51

57 Understanding vacatin rentals Overview f San Juan Cunty husing stck Owner-ccupied 5507 Vacant 4947 Lng-term rentals 2201 Vacatin rentals 964 Figure 32. Number f different husing stck in San Juan Cunty. Surce: SJI Cunty DCD 2017 briefing n vacatin rental cde amendments (Erica Shk & Linda Kuller) Based n recent analyses, San Juan Cunty has rughly 13,600 husing units, f which 7,700 are full-time resident husehlds (San Juan Cunty Cmmunity Develpment, 2017). Abut 71% r 5,500 f these resident husehlds wn their hmes, while the rest (29% r 2,200) live in lng-term rentals. The remaining 6,000 husing units are secnd hmes that can be divided int vacatin rentals (abut 1,000), and s-called vacant hmes (abut 5,000). The frmer are permitted by the Cunty t be rented t visitrs, like htels r ther accmmdatin. The latter are nt all vacant, they are simply used part-time. These vacant hmes can be further divided int three types: Occupied nly by their wners. Occupied by their wners r wners friends and relatives (fr free). Occupied by thers (nt the wners r their relatives) fr a fee, but nt under permit with the Cunty. These may be advertised n Craigslist, by wrd f muth, r thrugh sme ther black market platfrm. This categry bypasses the Cunty permitting prcess and cunty and state ldging taxes. It is challenging t estimate the number r prprtin f hmes in these different vacant categries. It is similarly challenging t estimate the percent f time the hmes in any f these categries are actually ccupied. It is als pssible that vacant hmes currently used by wners, their friends, r thrugh black markets will be cnverted t permitted vacatin rentals at sme time in the future. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 52

58 Figure 33. Number f vacatin rentals, lng-term rentals, and vacant hmes in San Juan Cunty. Surce: SJI Cunty DCD 2017 briefing n vacatin rental cde amendments (Erica Shk & Linda Kuller) Nte: 2005 data is unavailable, but a gap is shwn t highlight the tempral trend. As shwn in Figure 33, the prprtins f the different husing stcks are changing. Withut verstating the precisin f these numbers, vacatin rentals have mre than tripled in the last 15 years, while vacant huses initially increased abut 65% (frm 3,000 t 5,000), but nw seem t have stabilized r decreased slightly. Lng term rentals increased abut 35%, and have als stabilized r decreased. It is unclear if this is a zer sum game, but the increase in vacatin rentals may represent cnversins frm the lng-term rental r vacant hme categries. If these trends cntinue, visitr accmmdatin culd increase substantially even if n new ldging is actually built. This is particularly true if substantial numbers f the stck f vacant hmes, which is mre than twice the stck f lng term rentals and nearly as large as the stck f wner-ccupied hmes, cnvert t vacatin rentals. There is a need t maintain an accurate, cmprehensive, real time husing database t fllw these trends. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 53

59 Vacatin rentals Estimating numbers and their characteristics San Juan Cunty requires permits fr hmewners t rent their huses t visitrs. This frmal prcess requires rentals t have a capacity related t the number f bedrms and bathrms, utilities, parking, permissin f neighbrs, etc. A file is created fr each permit, but the infrmatin has been incmpletely digitized (usually limited t name, address, and lcatin; nly abut ne third have any infrmatin abut the number f beds r rental capacity). The Cunty is revising its vacatin rental rdinance, which prvides an pprtunity t refresh and digitize all permit infrmatin. In the interim, there is a need t estimate the number and capacity f vacatin rentals, t fit with the capacity infrmatin we have fr ther types f visitr accmmdatins. Cnfluence develped a systematic sample f 217 vacatin rentals (97 n San Juan, 60 n Orcas, and 60 n Lpez) listed n Airbnb and VRBO. These tw platfrms are purpse-made websites that allw wners t list their huses (fr a percentage f the rental prceeds). A cmbined initial list f 875 vacatin rentals was develped using the map scrlling tls n the Airbnb and VRBO websites. Althugh vacatin rentals are ffered thrugh ther platfrms (e.g., Craigslist, direct bking, and wrd f muth), the 875 cmbined VRBO and AirBNB listings were sufficiently clse t the apprximately 950 Cunty-permitted vacatin rentals (sme f which may be ffered n ther marketing platfrms), s we cnsidered these tw sufficient. Based n ur sampling, there appears t be a 9% verlap where wners list n bth websites, s the tw websites prbably cver abut 790 distinct vacatin rentals. The list was then srted by number f bedrms and sampled at systematic intervals until the target number f rentals fr each island was met. This ensured a representative sample f different size rentals, fr which we cllected mre detailed infrmatin. The sample returned mstly huses, but als included sme units that better fit within sme f ur ther accmmdatin types (e.g., dwntwn cnds, apartments, cabins/cttages, tent cabins, bed and breakfasts, bats, and private campsites). In general, hwever, the majrity f vacatin rentals are a single huse r unit ffered by its wner (nt part f a grup f units as with a B&B r htel). Estimating vacatin rental characteristics The vacatin rental database (n=217) has infrmatin abut the wner; address; island; VRBO/Airbnb identificatin number; capacity (peple); number f bedrms; number f bathrms; type (e.g., huse, cnd, cabin, apartment, campsite, ther); square ftage; waterfrnt availability (wn beach, access t public beach, waterfrnt, water view); star rating; and cst (per persn if filled, per bedrm, and per square ft). Mst vacatin rentals are higher quality accmmdatins. Fr ur entire database, 93% were rated 4.5 r 5 stars. There were n units listed belw 3.5 stars (althugh 11% f units were nt rated). The average cst f a listing is $246 per night ($51 per persn; $130 per bedrm; $240 per 1,000 square feet). Csts (per persn, per square ft, r per bedrm) fllw frm star ratings. Fr example, 5 star units g fr $135 per bedrm, while 3.5 star units g fr $65 per bedrm. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 54

60 The average vacatin rental sleeps 5.2 peple, has 2.0 bedrms, and 1.7 baths, but this cnflates small rms and apartments with larger rentals. The average rm/apartment sleeps 3, has 1.1 bedrm, and 1.0 bath. They cst abut $137 per bedrm. The average cttage/cabin sleeps 4 peple, has 1.5 bedrms, and 1.1 baths. They cst abut $141 per bedrm. The average huse sleeps 6.8 peple, has 2.7 bedrms, and 2.2 baths. They cst abut $122 per bedrm. Additinal infrmatin abut the vacatin rental database is prvided in Appendix D. The database will be prvided t the Cunty upn cmpletin f the study. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 55

61 Accmmdatin inventry Ttal units acrss all types It is useful t sum the ttal accmmdatin units acrss different types; Figure 34 shws amunts fr each island and in ttal. 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Ttal SJI Orcas Lpez Campgrunds VRBO Airbnb B&Bs Hstels Cabins Resrt/cnd Htels/inns Figure 34. Number f accmmdatin units by island and type. The greatest number f accmmdatin units n all islands are in the vacatin rental (Airbnb/VRBO) categry, althugh htels/inns n San Juan are a clse secnd. There are very few hstel, B&B, resrt, r cnd units available. San Juan Island has the majrity f htels/inns and the least amunt f camping. Orcas has mre vacatin rentals and mre camping than the ther islands due t a large number f campsites at Mran State Park. Lpez has the least ldging; mst f their vernight units are vacatin rentals and campgrunds. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 56

62 Accmmdatin inventry Ttal peple acrss all types By applying simple multiplier assumptins fr peple per unit, we estimated the capacity f existing accmmdatin (assuming all rms were full). Fr this exercise, based n a review f ur databases, we assumed 3 peple per htel unit, 7 per cnd, 6 per cabin, 4 per hstel rm, 3 per B&B bedrm, 5 per transient rental unit, and 6 per campsite. 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Ttal SJI Orcas Lpez Campgrund Airbnb/vrb B&B Hstel Cabins Resrt/cnd Htels/inns Figure 35. Estimated average vernight visitrs (if all units were ccupied) Results shw a similar pattern t Figure 36, but high ccupancy units like vacatin rentals and campsites shw larger prprtins f ttal accmmdatin. Overall, San Juan and Orcas islands appear t have similar accmmdatin capacities. Orcas has fewer htel rms but mre vacatin rentals and campsites, which can handle mre peple. Lpez has few htel units, and its vacatin rentals and campgrunds prvide mst f its accmmdatin capacity. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 57

63 Reprted accmmdatin: Ferry survey The ferry survey asked visitrs t reprt the type f accmmdatin they were using; it prvides the mst representative estimate f visitrs accmmdatin chices. Figure 36. Percent f ferry survey visitrs wh stayed in different types f accmmdatin These reprted accmmdatin types fit with the availability f different types f accmmdatin shwn in the inventry n each island. Cmpared t ther islands, San Juan has mre visitrs staying in htels and B&Bs, and less in campgrunds. Orcas has fewer visitrs in htels and mre in campgrunds, while Lpez has mre with family/friends and in campgrunds, and few in htels and B&Bs. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 58

64 Reprted accmmdatin amenities (frm ferry visitrs) The ferry survey asked visitrs t reprt the amenities at their accmmdatin. Figure 37. Percent f ferry visitrs reprting amenities at their accmmdatin. Over 60% f Orcas and Lpez visitrs reprted water views, and abut 40% reprted waterfrnt prperty. San Juan percentages were 33% and 25%, respectively. Lpez visitrs were mre likely t reprt bicycles, kayaks, and a public beach. The latter may be related t the campers frm Odlin and Spencer Spit State Park in the sample. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 59

65 Des accmmdatin capacity cnstrain verall visitatin? Structured interviews with several staff suggest that mst htels/inns are fully ccupied n summer weekends, althugh there is ften space mid-week and during shulder seasns. This suggests sme grwth in peak seasn visitatin can ccur in this categry. We assume the same is true fr cabins and resrt/cnds. The verall husing stck in the Cunty is the ther majr cmpnent f accmmdatin supply. The current stck f vacatin rentals is the single largest accmmdatin categry, verall prviding rughly a third f the units and serving rughly half the visitrs. It is mre f a wild card because it has several unknwns. The current stck f vacant husing is five times larger than the vacatin rental stck. Ferry survey data shw that numbers f visitrs staying with friends and family are abut the same as numbers in vacatin rentals, which suggests abut 20% f the vacant categry may serve as de fact units in the vacatin rentals categry, ccupied by peple wh cnsider themselves visitrs. If an additinal 20% f the vacant categry (currently truly vacant) was cnverted t vacatin rentals, it wuld duble the number f vacatin rentals, and perhaps increase the number f visitrs by as much as 50%. This change culd ccur withut any new cnstructin. Lng-term rentals present ther unknwns. The evidence suggests that sme lng-term rentals may be cnverting t vacatin rentals. If this depletes the stck f lng-term rentals, it may induce higher visitatin while decreasing husing fr thse needed t service visitatin. In general, vacatin rentals appear t be larger and higher-end units than lng-term rentals, but the data shw that vacatin rentals include mdest units t. Many vacant hmes are already accmmdating visitrs, just nt visitrs wh reserve r pay fr their accmmdatin in an easy-t-mnitr way. If vacant hmes currently used by visitrs are cnverted t vacatin rental status, it may nt change the verall amunt f visitatin unless ccupancy rates change. Occupancy rates fr bth vacant husing and vacatin rentals are currently unknwn. Ldging tax receipts might allw estimates f ccupancy fr vacatin rentals, but this analysis requires cmplex assumptins. Occupancy rates fr vacant husing are even mre difficult t estimate. Bth f these issues culd be addressed n a resident survey and additinal analysis f vacatin rental ldging tax receipts. The current accmmdatin supply is a prbably a larger cnstraint n visitatin than the WSF system. Fr example, ur earlier transprtatin analysis shws that typical peak weekends bring as many as 3,000 peple per day t San Juan Island, and because they stay an average f 2.0 days, rughly 6,000 peple need t be accmmdated each night. The accmmdatin inventry suggests there is space fr abut 4,000 visitrs n San Juan Island, s 2,000 f the ferry arrivals must be residents, r peple staying in the vacant hmes stck. If the staying with friends r family categry is the same size as the vacatin rental categry (as indicated by ferry survey data in Figure 36), abut 20% f that vacant hme stck wuld accmmdate these arriving visitrs. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 60

66 Where d visitrs g? Number f recreatin sites visited (frm ferry survey) Visitrs frm the ferry survey were asked t check all the utdr recreatin lcatins yu visited n this San Juan Islands trip, and prvided a list f 11 t 14 sites n each island (respndents culd writein ther respnses t). A cunt f the number f sites checked r listed allwed analysis f the number visited per trip and per day. Figure 38. Percent reprting the number f sites they visited n the island where they were surveyed. Mst visitrs g t several attractin sites, althugh sme (abut a quarter n San Juan, 10 t 15% n Orcas and Lpez) d nt visit any. In general, visitrs n Orcas g t mre sites than thse n Lpez, wh g t mre than San Juan. Cntrlling fr length f trip (dividing number f sites visited by number f days n trip), visitrs average ne site per day. There are sme sightseeing-fcused visitrs wh check-ff many sites n the lists, but there are thers wh d nt. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 61

67 Reprted sites visited (frm ferry survey) The ferry survey listed 14 sites n San Juan and 11 each n Orcas and Lpez. The fllwing figures shw percent f visitrs wh visited each site. Figure 39. Percent f ferry survey visitrs wh visit San Juan attractin sites. On San Juan Island, Lime Kiln SP is the nly attractin that attracts nearly half f all ferry survey visitrs; it als attracts abut 5% f thse staying n Lpez and Orcas. Several ther places attract 10-30% f all visitrs, including the NPS Natinal Histric Park units, Cattle Pint (DNR and BLM), Cunty Park, and Westside Preserve. Althugh Rche Harbr trails appear ppular, it is unclear if respndents actually used the trails, r checked the site because they visited the larger Rche Harbr area (resrt, marina, and sculpture garden). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 62

68 Figure 40. Percent f ferry survey visitrs wh visit Orcas attractin sites On Orcas Island, Mt. Cnstitutin summit is the mst-visited site, attracting ver 65% f Orcas visitrs and abut 5% f San Juan and Lpez visitrs. Cascade Lake and Muntain Lake attract nearly half f all Orcas visitrs, explaining the high densities at thse sites (see belw). Despite having ne f the few nn-radside public beaches n the island, Obstructin Pass State Park attracts relatively little use. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 63

69 Figure 41. Percent f ferry survey visitrs wh visit Lpez Island attractin sites. One f Lpez s mst ppular attractin sites is amng the least managed the DOT prperty at the ferry landing. Few visitrs g just t see that site, but mst spend time waiting at the ferry landing. Spencer Spit State Park and Shark Reef are the mst ppular attractins, with 45% and 31%, respectively. Abut 25% f Lpez visitrs g t Agate/Iceberg Pint, while 19% visit Watmugh Bay. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 64

70 Figure 42. Reprted length f stay at attractin sites fr visitrs and residents (frm nsite survey). Onsite survey respndents (visitrs and residents) were asked t reprt the amunt f time they spent at the site where they were surveyed. Results fr all islands are given in Figure 46; differences between islands were small. Mst visitrs spend a cuple f hurs at a given attractin site, althugh 20 t 30% spend as many as 3 t 6 hurs. Differences fr visitrs and residents were small. Lnger times amng visitrs were generally fr places they were camping. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 65

71 Use levels at attractin sites by island (frm cunts/bservatins) Cunts at San Juan Island sites Cunts f peple vehicles etc. were made at 11 sites n San Juan Island. The cmparisn f average, 75 percentile, and maximum cunts help characterize use at each. Lime Kiln SJ Cunty Park Suth Beach English Camp American Camp 4th f July Suth Beach Trailheads Cattle Pint Westside Preserve Jacksn Beach Eagle Cve Peple Average 75th Percentile Max Figure 43. Onsite peple cunts at attractin sites n San Juan Island. Lime Kiln has the highest use levels f any site n San Juan Island. Cunty Park, Suth Beach, English Camp, and American Camp als see substantial use. Differences between average (blue) and maximum (purple) cunts shw mre than 5x (maximum vs. average) at Lime Kiln and 3x at Cunty Park. Maximum spikes f high use were infrequent; 75% cunts were typically much clser t averages than maximums. These rare episdic high use events raise interesting questins abut whether t set up staff and facilities t meet these demands, set up systems t distribute use and avid peaks, r adpt a laissez faire apprach that tlerates these ccasinal high use prblems. This example fr San Juan Island illustrates the cunt/bservatin infrmatin cllected at rughly 17 main sites acrss all three islands. Similar infrmatin has been develped fr Orcas and Lpez sites in Appendix C. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 66

72 Example f site cunts: Lime Kiln State Park Peple Vehicles Bikes Bats Kayaks Trailers Max 75th Percentile Average Figure 44. Cunts fr peple, vehicles, bikes, bats, kayaks, and trailers at Lime Kiln SP. Detailed infrmatin cllected during site cunts is shwn in this example fr Lime Kiln. In this case, rare episdic high use (max levels are 5x average levels) applies t peple, but des nt shw up in vehicle r ther cunts. The data indicate that during this event (likely a whale sighting) many peple were prbably drpped ff by buses r vehicles that cannt fit in the site s limited parking lts (which hld apprximately 50 vehicles). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 67

73 Example f site cunts: Cunty Park n San Juan Island Peple Vehicles Bikes Bats Kayaks Trailers Cmm Vans Max 75th Percentile Average Figure 45. Cunts fr peple, vehicles, bikes, bats, kayaks, and trailers at Cunty Park. Episdic high use als ccurs at Cunty Park (max cunts are nearly 5x the average), typically in cnjunctin with scheduled guided kayaking turs. On nrmal days, 50 peple make the day use areas busy but manageable. But when tides, gd weather, and weekend days cincide, 100 peple may be present during launch windws, verwhelming facilities and park staff. Peple and bats crssing the rad adjacent t the beach create safety issues, while cngestin n the ramp and beach create undesirable cnditins fr paddlers rganizing gear and cnducting beach talks. Based n field bservatins, there is rm fr abut 40 kayaks t safely launch frm the beach at Smallpx Bay at ne time. Mst f the time there are less than 25 kayaks present, well under capacity fr a gd quality experience. But with 50 kayaks, sme users launch in unsafe cnditins, and interfere with each ther s trips. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 68

74 Example f site cunts: American Camp Peple Vehicles Bikes Max 75th Percentile Average Figure 46. Cunts f peple vehicles and bikes at SJNHP American Camp. American Camp has smaller differences between average and maximum use (abut 2.5x), suggesting that episdic high use is less f an issue at this site. American Camp has mre extensive dispersed trails that can distribute use better than a cncentrated site like Lime Kiln r Cunty Park. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 69

75 Cunts at Orcas Island sites Cunts f peple vehicles etc. were made at 8 sites n Orcas Island. The cmparisn f average, 75 percentile, and maximum cunts help characterize use at each. Cascade Lake Mt. Cnstitutin Obstructin Pass Muntain Lake day use Nrth Beach shre access lt Crescent Waterfrnt Park Judd Cve Preserve Peple Average 75th Percentile Max Figure 47. Peple cunts at Orcas attractin sites. Cascade Lake had the highest use levels f any site n the three main islands. As with Lime Kiln and Cunty Park, it has episdic high use, with maximums abut 3x average use. The 75 th percentile cunt was als substantially larger than the average, cmpared t any ther site. This indicates that high use ccurs mre ften than at ther high use sites. Cascade Lake rarely has high use befre nn, and nearly all peaks ccur n warm afternns (best cnditins fr swimming). Mt. Cnstitutin is the ther Orcas attractin with substantial use, averaging abut 50 at ne time, with 2.3x peaks ver 100. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 70

76 Cunts at Lpez Island sites Cunts f peple vehicles etc. were made at 11 sites n Lpez Island. The cmparisn f average, 75 percentile, and maximum cunts help characterize use at each. Spencer Spit Watmugh Shark Reef Odlin Agate Beach / Iceberg Village Lpez Ferry Landing Fisherman Spit Otis Hummel Lake lt Blackie Brady Park Peple Average 75th Percentile Max Figure 48. Peple cunts fr Lpez Island attractin sites. Lpez Island has fur sites (Spencer Spit, Watmugh, Shark Reef and Odlin) that attract episdic high use, althugh nne f these sites have actual use levels as high as Lime Kiln, Cunty Park, Cascade Lake r Mt. Cnstitutin summit. Spencer Spit has the highest (3x) difference between average and maximum use. The ther three are clser t 2x sites. Of these fur sites, Shark Reef has the mst cncentrated use, because the ut-and-back trail depsits visitrs at a few small marine viewing and picnic areas. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 71

77 Other site specific cunts and cunt/density maps Cunts fr vehicles, bikes, bats, and ther variables fr several sites have been cllected in Appendix C. These are helpful as baseline data fr future years, but they als ffer pprtunities fr additinal analysis. Results include cunts and densities n specific trail segments at different times t illustrate hw use can vary dramatically by time f day, day f week, r seasn. Examples are given fr Lime Kiln in Figure /16.7 Visitatin at sites frm nsite cunts 28/16.6 Tue July 4, :20 pm Daily traffic cunt: 338 vehicles Daily lighthuse visitrs: 162 peple Whle park AOT visitrs: 109 peple 12/ /5.5 Parking - 17 cars Parking - 8 cars 28/9.3 0/0.0 0/0.0 0/0.0 Wed July 5, :00 am Daily traffic cunt: 426 vehicles Daily lighthuse visitrs: 307 peple Whle park AOT visitrs: 1 persn Parking - 0 cars (Cunt/density) Parking - 2 cars 1/ / / /4.8 May-September 2017 Averages Avg. daily traffic cunt: 330 vehicles (Cunt/density) Avg. lighthuse visitrs: 241 peple Whle park avg. visitrs: 64.8 peple 10.0/5.9 Parking cars Parking cars 0/0.0 (Cunt/density) 13.8/4.6 Figure 49. Cunts and densities f peple n trail segments at Lime Kiln State Park. This example illustrates hw peple are distributed alng trails (alng the marine viewing shre). Cmparisns include a hliday afternn, the fllwing mrning, and average fr the seasn. Cunts are fr the specified trail segment, while densities are calculated as peple per 100 yards. Peple are likely t be cncentrated within trail segments at ppular areas like the lighthuse r whale wall. The maps include infrmatin abut daily traffic averages and ther use indicatrs frm the whale research statin at the lighthuse (see discussin belw). Additinal analysis explred crrelatins between daily traffic indicatrs and at-ne-time use levels; these were relatively lw (r<.3). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 72

78 Visitatin at sites (frm traffic cunters) State Parks staff perate TRAFx vehicle cunters thrugh the year, prviding useful infrmatin abut seasnal and day f the week trends. An example fr Lime Kiln State Park is given belw. Figure 50. Daily traffic cunts at Lime Kiln State Park in Regular weekend and hliday peaks are very predictable at this park, fllwing frm WSF use patterns discussed earlier. Weekend peaks are generally 2x midweek traffic, while mid-summer peaks (arund 600 t 800 vehicles per day) are rughly 2-3x shulder seasn peaks (abut 200 t 300 vehicles). Daily traffic cunts are cumulative cunts fr 24 hurs, and d nt prvide infrmatin abut distributins thrugh the day. Typical weekend peaks (600 vehicles) parked fr an average f ne hur thrugh a 12 hur day wuld require 50 parking spaces the number currently available. Because use is ften cncentrated in the afternns (nt evenly distributed), cumulative daily vehicle cunts ver 600 are prbably ver capacity and prduce episdic cngestin and crwding. These are exacerbated n hliday peaks, r when whales are present (and peple are mre likely t stay lnger than abut an hur). Similar daily traffic graphs have been develped in Appendix C fr American Camp and English Camp n San Juan Island; Mran State Park, Mt. Cnstitutin, and Obstructin Pass n Orcas; and Spencer Spit n Lpez. They shw similar weekend and seasnal patterns, and prvide baseline infrmatin that will help identify lnger term trends in future years. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 73

79 Visitatin infrmatin frm ther surces San Juan Natinal Histrical Park visitr center cunts NPS visitr center staff at American Camp and English Camp have tracked cumulative daily visitr numbers entering their facilities. Figure 51. Daily cumulative visitrs t American Camp and English Camp visitr centers. Patterns are similar t Lime Kiln traffic use levels, shwing hliday and mid-summer weekend peaks, with lwer use n weekdays and in shuld seasns. The highest peaks (500 t 700 peple per day) are abut twice midweek levels (250 t 350). English Camp has cnsistently higher visitr center use levels than American Camp. This cntrasts with higher ttal numbers f visitrs traveling int the American Camp unit, which includes Suth Beach and several trailheads n the east side f the island. Assuming 3 peple per vehicle, daily peaks abut 600 peple at English Camp wuld equal abut 200 vehicles. If length f stay averaged abut ne hur thrugh a 12 hur day, and use was distributed evenly thrugh the day, abut 17 spaces are needed. There are currently 30 marked spaces in the main lt, with additinal limited parallel parking at the Yungs Hill trailhead n West Valley Rad. But if parking duratins average mre than an hur r use is cncentrated (e.g., n sunny weekend afternns), this lt culd easily fill and may prduce cngestin prblems alng West Valley Rad. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 74

80 At American Camp, daily peaks f abut 300 peple equates t abut 100 vehicles. If length f stay averages abut ne hur thrugh a 12 hur day, and use was distributed evenly thrugh the day, abut 8 spaces are needed. There are currently abut 12 marked spaces in the main lt, but there is verflw parallel parking alng the access rad, and it is cmmnly needed n sunny afternns. At 25 feet per unmarked parallel space alng bth sides f the suthern part f the lp, there is rm fr abut 18 additinal vehicles (35 ttal); the maximum vehicle cunt at American Camp in 2017 was 32. Planning fr a new Visitr Center is currently underway, and will include parking imprvements. If ne assumes lnger parking duratins, less evenly distributed tempral patterns, r future grwth due t the new center, a slightly larger lt (abut 40 t 50 vehicles) is prbably sufficient t handle peaks. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 75

81 Rbert Otis s Lime Kiln cunts Rbert Otis is a retired Ripn Cllege (WI) whale researcher wh has tracked whales ff Lime Kiln since He spends 83 days per summer (9 t 5 frm May 20 thrugh Aug 10) at the lighthuse watching and dcumenting whale behavir. He has tracked ther variables such as numbers f visitrs, dgs, weather, etc. His wrk dcuments the percent f times that whales are present (4 times per day tracking). The lng term average is abut 14%, typically ranging frm 10 t 20% in mst years. In 2017, whales were present nly 3% f the times. Of interest t this study are tw types f visitr cunts, cnducted since 2000: Cumulative daily visitrs wh walk int the lighthuse At-ne-time cunts f visitrs in view frm the tp f the lighthuse at 10 am, nn, 2:30 pm, and 5 pm; fr each f these times, he als lgs whether whales are present. Figure 52. Average f multiple at-ne-time cunts frm the Lighthuse when whales are/are nt present. These data illustrate that use has been increasing ver the past tw decades, with peak use levels averaging 30 t 50 peple near the lighthuse in recent years. Data als suggest that whales attract visitrs t the site (pssibly thrugh scial media reprts), and encurage peple t stay lnger. When whales are nt present, the site ffers a lwer density experience, but whale sightings can duble average use, and these episdic high use perids may create crwding and cngestin in parking r viewing areas. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 76

82 Cunty Park cmmercial kayaks and peple 2017 San Juan Cunty has tracked cmmercial and private kayak use frm Cunty Park since at least Figure 53. Daily bats and peple launching n cmmercial kayak trips frm SJ Cunty Park. Daily kayak use frm 2017 shws the hliday, weekend, and seasnal use patterns shwn with traffic cunters and the WSF arrivals. Weekend and hliday peaks are abut 2x midweek trughs. Frm nsite bservatins during peak seasn, daily use levels are nt always crrelated with at-netime peak use, which can ccur episdically when gd tides, gd weather, and weekends cincide. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 77

83 Figure 54. Average daily kayak use by mnth at Cunty Park, 2004 t Surce: Tby Haskett, SJC Parks, Recreatin, and Fair. Average mnthly use illustrates hw use has increased in tw different ways ver the years. Use has been increasing in the highest use mnths (July and August); recent years have been abut triple the use levels f the early 2000s. The shulder seasn has als been widening, with May, June, and September use increasing frm abut kayakers per day t abut Because the timing f kayak trips is ften tide-dependent, use tends t be temprally cncentrated, increasing parking cngestin. If 60 kayakers came in private vehicles (with 3 peple per car), there wuld need t be parking fr 20 vehicles. The current day use and bat parking areas nly have space fr abut 18 vehicles, leaving little space fr nn-bating use. Park managers accrdingly require kayak utfitters bring clients in vans and bats n trailers. They als dn t allw lng term parking in the launch area spaces (saving them fr baters and utfitters wh are actively lading r unlading). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 78

84 Campgrund ccupancy cunts Cunty Park and State Parks tracks campgrund sites sld thrugh the year, and data can be cmpared with capacity t estimate ccupancy rates. Appendix C includes mnthly ccupancy averages fr San Juan Cunty Park n San Juan; Mran and Obstructin Pass n Orcas; and Odlin and Spencer Spit n Lpez. The data als include State Park mrage ccupancy. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 79

85 Crwding Researchers recgnize a difference between use density and crwding (Shelby and Heberlein 1986; Shelby et al., 1989). Density is a descriptive term that refers t the number f peple per unit area (and it can be determined bjectively). Crwding is a negative evaluatin f density; it invlves a value judgment that a particular number is t many. The term perceived crwding is used t emphasize the evaluative nature f the cncept Nt at all Slightly Mderately Extremely Crwded Crwded Crwded Crwded Results can be analyzed in several ways. The traditinal analysis cllapses the scale int tw categries. This prvides a cnceptually meaningful break pint between thse wh labeled the situatin as nt at all crwded (scale pints 1 and 2, a psitive evaluatin), and thse wh labeled the situatin as slightly, mderately, r extremely crwded (scale pints 3 thrugh 9, a negative evaluatin). While analyses f ther statistics (such as averages) can be dne, a cmparisn shwed crrelatins f.90 t.95 with the traditinal analysis (Vaske and Shelby, 2008), suggesting few differences amng these chices. Since 1975, this single item measure has been used in ver 200 studies acrss the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and Krea. This has prduced crwding ratings fr ver 600 different settings/activities (Vaske & Shelby, 2008), and the list keeps grwing. The activities included rafting, caneing, kayaking, tubing, mtr bating, hiking, backpacking, wildlife viewing, wildlife phtgraphy, hunting f many types, fishing f many types, rck climbing, sailing, and driving fr pleasure. Sme lcatins had extremely high density and use impact prblems, thers had lw densities and n prblems, and still thers had management strategies designed t cntrl densities and impacts. A meta-analysis f 35 early studies (Shelby, et al., 1989) identified five rule f thumb capacity categries using the traditinal analysis described abve (see Table 4). The paper warns that these categrizatins are nt a substitute fr the infrmatin abut use levels, impacts, and standards that a mre cmplete capacity study can prvide. But this simple measure prvides useful cmparative data that allw managers t understand better the carrying capacity challenges that face them, and give investigatrs an idea abut what kinds f studies wuld be mst useful. Table 4. Rule f thumb capacity judgments based n levels f perceived crwding (frm Shelby et al., 1989). % Feeling Crwded Capacity rule f thumb judgment 0-35% Uncrwded Shelby et al. s recmmendatins fr management r research Crwding usually limited by management r situatinal factrs (remte lcatin, difficult access), r refers t lw use areas % Lw nrmal Prblem situatin des nt exist at this time % High nrmal Shuld be studied if increased use is expected, allwing management t anticipate prblems % Over capacity Studies & management necessary t preserve experiences % Greatly ver capacity Manage fr high-density recreatin. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 80

86 Overall reprted crwding (frm ferry survey) Ferry survey visitrs were asked t reprt crwding at different lcatins during their visit: Figure 55. Percent f all ferry survey visitrs feeling crwded. The highest crwding ratings were while parking in villages (in the ver-capacity categry) r at attractin sites (in the high nrmal categry). Crwding ratings were substantially lwer fr traveling n rads (lw nrmal), r at destinatins such as beaches (lw nrmal), trails, r viewing areas (bth uncrwded). Overall crwding ratings were higher than fr rads r destinatins, althugh still in the lw nrmal categry. As in ther studies, the verall rating is affected by the cngestin encuntered while parking. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 81

87 Feeling crwded differences between islands (frm ferry survey) Figure 56. Percent f ferry survey visitrs feel crwded differences between islands. There were several differences in crwding ratings fr the three islands. In general, Orcas visitrs reprted mre crwding than San Juan visitrs, wh reprted mre than Lpez visitrs. The relative rank f different cntexts was similar fr all three islands. Parking in villages and at attractins were mre crwded than while traveling n rads r at destinatins such as beaches, viewing areas, r trails. Overall crwding fr the entire trip is affected by crwding while parking. The three cntexts where crwding ratings indicate use may be ver capacity are parking in Eastsund, parking in Friday Harbr, and parking at Orcas attractin areas (e.g. Mt Cnstitutin, Cascade Lake). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 82

88 Crwding at attractin sites (frm nsite survey) The nsite survey was administered at the 14 specific sites listed belw. Respndents were asked: Table 5. Percent feeling crwded (verall) at San Juan Islands attractin sites. % Feeling Crwded Attractin site Over capacity: Studies and management likely needed t preserve quality Island 67 Cascade Lake day use area Orcas Island High Nrmal: Shuld be studied if use increases expected; managers might anticipate prblems 55 Watmugh Bay Lpez Island 53 Muntain Lake day use area Orcas Island Lw Nrmal: Unlikely t be a prblem; may ffer unique lw density experiences 48 Agate / Iceberg Pint Lpez Island 46 Mt Cnstitutin summit Orcas Island 43 Westside Preserve Orcas Island 37 Obstructin Pass Orcas Island Uncrwded: n prblem; may ffer unique lw-density experiences 29 Shark Reef Lpez Island 27 Cunty Park San Juan Island 27 Suth Beach San Juan Island 26 Lime Kiln State Park San Juan Island 22 Odlin Park Lpez Island 22 Spencer Spit Lpez Island 6 Otis Perkins/Tmbl Park Lpez Island Results allw cmparisns amng sites n the San Juans, and classificatins int the different capacity categries. Fr example, Cascade Lake is the mst crwded site, and is in the ver-capacity categry. This is in cntrast t 11 sites with crwding ratings belw 50%, which are in the lw nrmal r uncrwded categries. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 83

89 Several sites that have episdic high use shw lw crwding ratings (e.g., Lime Kiln, Cunty Park). There are at least tw pssible explanatins. First, crwding evaluates a particular use density as t high, but if visitr s nrms fr a site r experience cnsider higher densities acceptable, crwding evaluatins will be lw. Secnd, places that have lw densities mst f the time may have many visitrs with lw crwding ratings, and few visitrs with higher crwding ratings; the result may be a lw verall rating. Bth these explanatins are prbably true fr sites like Lime Kiln and Cunty Park; these places appear t have few capacity issues mst f the time, except during episdes f intense high use where use levels are 3-5 times the average. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 84

90 Cmparing crwding San Juan Islands t ther turism destinatins Table 6. Percent feeling sme degree f crwding at varius resurces. % Feeling Crwded Resurce Ppulatin/Cmments Greatly ver capacity: Shuld be managed fr high densities; might be described as sacrifice area 100 Deschutes River, Or Baters n weekends 100 Kenai River, Ak Upper river bank anglers n high use days 94 Brks River, Katmai NP, Ak Bear viewers at muth f river (September) 94 Clrad River, Az Anglers at Thanksgiving 92 Kenai River, Ak Lwer river pwerbaters n high use days 90 Kh Chang marine park, Thailand Snrkellers 90 Ysemite Valley, Ysemite NP, Ca River users abut finding parking in Valley 87 Oregn Caves Natinal Mnument, Or All visitrs 85 Arches Natinal Park, Ut Muntain bikers n Slick Rck trail Over capacity: Studies and management likely needed t preserve quality 83 Clumbia Icefield, Banff-Jasper NP Sncach turists 81 Bridalveil Falls, Ysemite NP (1999) Falls visitrs at base f falls 74 Acadia NP, Me Thunder Hle visitrs 74 Rcky Muntain NP, C Visitr Center visitrs 73 Bundary Waters, Mn Caners/baters 72 Grand Canyn, Az Rafters 69 Glacier Pint, Ysemite NP (1999) Glacier Pint visitrs evaluating viewing areas 69 Rcky Muntain NP, C Lngs Peak hikers 67 Cascade Lake day use area n Orcas Island Visitrs verall 67 Mesa Verde NP, C Visitrs verall High Nrmal: Shuld be studied if use increases expected; managers might anticipate prblems 61 Ysemite Falls, Ysemite NP, Ca Falls visitrs n trail and at base f falls 60 Ysemite Valley, Ysemite NP, Ca River users abut bating n Merced River 58 Arches NP, Ut Visitrs t Delicate Arch 55 Watmugh Bay, Lpez Island Visitrs verall 54 Ysemite Valley, Ysemite NP, Ca River users abut relaxing alng Merced River 53 Grand Canyn, Az Rafters in winter 53 Muntain Lake day use area, Orcas Island Visitrs verall 51 Ysemite NP, Ca (2001) Frntcuntry users alng trails Lw Nrmal: Unlikely t be a prblem; may ffer unique lw density experiences 48 Agate / Iceberg Pint n Lpez Island Visitrs verall 46 Mt Cnstitutin summit Visitrs verall 45 Ysemite Valley, Ysemite NP, Ca River users abut swimming in Merced River 45 Acadia NP, Me Visitrs n Carriage Rads 43 Westside Preserve n San Juan Island Visitrs verall 39 Pacific Rim Natinal Park, BC Ocean kayakers 38 Apstle Islands Natinal Lakeshre, WI Kayakers 37 Lake Mead, NV Shreline users 37 Obstructin Pass State Park n Orcas Island Visitrs verall 36 Ysemite NP, Ca (2001) Remte wilderness hikers Uncrwded: n prblem; may ffer unique lw-density experiences 29 Shark Reef Sanctuary n Lpez Island Visitrs verall 28 Vail Pass, CO Skiers, snwshers, and snwbarders at trailhead 27 Cunty Park n San Juan Island Visitrs verall 27 Suth Beach n San Juan Island Visitrs verall 27 Muir Beach, CA Visitrs verall 26 Lime Kiln State Park n San Juan Island Visitrs verall 23 Ysemite NP, Ca (2001) Wilderness transitin users n trails 23 Kenai Fjrds NP, Ak Visitrs t Exit Glacier 23 Acadia NP, Me Isle au Haut hikers 22 Odlin Park n Lpez Island Visitrs verall 22 Spencer Spit State Park n Lpez Island Visitrs verall 21 Zin Natinal Park, UT Weeping Rck trail users 21 Hawaii Vlcanes NP, Hi Visitrs at Thurstn lava tube 16 Gwaii Haanas, BC Turing kayakers at varius areas San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 85

91 Perceived crwding scres fr several ther cmparable resurces are shwn in Table 7. These were chsen frm a master list assembled by Jerry Vaske frm nearly 200 studies (available at Fr example, busy weekend baters n Oregn s Deschutes River and high use bank anglers n Alaska s Kenai River have scres at the tp f the greatly ver capacity categry. Bear viewers in Alaska s Katmai NP, visitrs at Oregn Caves NM, and Slick Rck Trail muntain bikers in Arches NP were in the same categry. Ratings fr activities at ther rivers and resurce areas are fund thrughut the table. These results prvide cntext fr the San Juan Island data and face validity fr the perceived crwding measure and analysis. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 86

92 Cping with crwding and cngestin The ferry survey asked respndents hw they might cpe with crwding r cngestin, using the item shwn belw: If visitatin t the San Juan Islands grws higher than yu d like, hw will yu cpe with it? (Check all that apply) Resign myself t the new mre crwded r cngested experience. Try t avid crwds r cngestin by visiting villages r attractins at a different day f the week r time f day. Try t avid crwds r cngestin by visiting villages r attractins during the ff-seasn. Becme dissatisfied. Visit ther turist destinatins instead f the San Juan Islands. Other (specify): Figure 57. Ferry survey cping respnses t crwding. There were few differences between visitrs and residents. The mst cmmn respnse (48-58%) is tempral displacement: avid crwds by ging n a different day r time. The secnd mst cmmn respnse (32-41%) is seasnal displacement: avid crwds by ging in the ff-seasn. Abut 30% f visitrs said they wuld be cmpletely displaced frm the San Juan Islands, and visit different turist destinatins instead. These visitr wuld be lst frm the San Juan Island visitr ecnmy. Abut 20% said they wuld becme resigned t the higher density experience (called a prduct shift). Very few (11-13%) said they wuld becme dissatisfied (cgnitive dissnance frm a self-selected activity and lcatin that shuld be evaluated psitively). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 87

93 Evaluating cnditins and facilities at attractin sites Onsite survey respndents were asked t rate the acceptability f several cnditins r facilities as shwn belw. Results are analyzed as 1) average scres n the 5-pint acceptable-unacceptable scale (green line; left axis) and 2) percent reprting unacceptable ratings (red bars, right axis). Figure 58. Evaluatins f cnditins and facilities at attractin sites (frm nsite survey) San Juan Island (upper left); Orcas Island (upper right); and Lpez Island (bttm). Ratings fr mst cnditins and facilities were very high, with less than 10% reprting any cnditin/facility unacceptable. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 88

94 Evaluating use densities at beaches and marine viewing areas Ferry survey respndents were shwn fur phts with different use densities n 1) a generic beach, and 2) a generic marine wildlife viewing area. The beach phts depicted 5, 12, 24, and 36 peple n a beach that is apprximately 240 feet lng and 60 feet wide (14,000 square feet, abut ne-third f an acre). The marine viewing phts depicted 4, 10, 18, and 26 peple in an area apprximately 90 feet by 70 feet (abut 6,000 square feet, abut.15 f an acre). Bth sets f phts were pht-shpped frm actual phts and peple at thse sites. The phts as they appeared in the survey are shwn belw. The survey asked respndents the fllwing questins: Please lk at the phts n the laminated insert. They shw different use levels n a beach (Phts A, B, C, and D, labeled beach phts ) and at a marine wildlife viewing area (Phts E, F, G, and H, labeled scenic phts ). 2. Fr the beaches yu have visited n the San Juan Islands, please rate the acceptability f the use levels shwn in Phts ABCD. Very unacceptable Marginal Very acceptable Pht A Pht B Pht C Pht D Fr the beaches yu visited, please chse which pht best represents (Circle ne letter r a bx fr each rw) the number f peple yu prefer t see. A B C D Lwer than A I dn t have a preference. the number f peple that wuld cause yu t leave this beach. A B C D Higher than D Use level desn t matter t me. 4. Fr the marine wildlife viewing areas yu visited in the San Juans, rate the acceptability f the use levels in Phts EFGH. Very unacceptable Marginal Very acceptable Pht E Pht F Pht G Pht H Fr the marine wildlife viewing areas yu visited, chse which pht best represents (Circle ne letter r a bx fr each rw the number f peple yu prefer t see. E F G H Lwer than E I dn t have a preference. the number f peple that wuld cause yu t leave this area. E F G H Higher than H Use level desn t matter t me. 6. Which f these San Juan Island pprtunities (beaches r marine viewing areas) is mre imprtant t yu? Beaches Marine wildlife viewing areas They are equally imprtant San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 89

95 Beach density evaluatins Figure 59. Evaluatins f different use densities n a generic beach. The tw lwer densities in phts A and B are rated acceptable; the density in pht C with 24 peple was marginal, and 36 peple was clearly unacceptable. There were n statistical differences amng islands r between visitrs/residents. Figure 60. Preferences fr beach density phts. Majrities prefer Pht A; few prefer higher use in Phts C and D There were few differences between visitrs and residents, althugh slightly mre Lpez respndents prefer Pht A cmpared t thse frm the ther tw islands. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 90

96 Figure 61. Displacement evaluatins fr beach density phts. The median density that wuld displace visitrs is Pht D. In additin, abut 20% f respndents wuld tlerate higher densities, and 15% reprt density desn t matter There were few differences between visitrs and residents. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 91

97 Marine viewing area densities The tw lwer densities in phts E and F are rated acceptable; pht G with 24 peple was marginal, and 36 peple shwn in pht H was clearly unacceptable. There were few statistical differences between islands r visitrs/residents, althugh Lpez respndents rated Pht G mre negatively than Orcas and San Juan respndents. Figure 62. Preferences fr marine viewing area density phts. Majrities prefer Pht E; few prefer higher use in Phts G and H; 12-21% prefer densities lwer than pht E. There were few differences between visitrs and residents, r amng islands. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 92

98 Figure 63. Displacement evaluatins fr marine viewing area phts. The median density that wuld displace visitrs is Pht H. Almst 20% f respndents wuld tlerate higher use, and a similar number said use level desn t matter. There were few differences between visitrs and residents, r amng islands. Taken tgether, the density evaluatin questins suggest that mst visitrs have standards r nrms that define hw many is t many peple n a beach r in a viewing area. Fr a generic pcket beach as depicted, the tlerable level appears t be abut 24 peple per third f an acre, r abut 600 square feet per persn. Fr a generic marine viewing area as depicted, the tlerable level appears t be abut 18 peple per.15 acre, r abut 300 square feet per persn. These standards can help managers right-size parking areas fr beaches r marine viewing areas. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 93

99 Supprt fr management actins (frm ferry survey) Ferry survey respndents were asked t rate their supprt fr a range f management actins that might be used t address visitr impacts r imprve experiences, as shwn belw. Priritizing ptential management actins Please tell us if yu supprt r ppse the fllwing actins that might be used t imprve turism in the San Juans. If yu supprt an actin, identify whether it shuld be a lw, medium, r high pririty. (Circle ne number per rw). Management actin Strngly ppse Slightly ppse N pinin I supprt this & it shuld be a Lw pririty Medium pririty Increase parking in villages Develp mre parking at attractin sites Imprve traffic flw thru villages during ferry rushes Encurage visitrs t leave their cars n the mainland Subsidize bus travel t attractins t reduce traffic cngestin Educatin abut car-bike etiquette t reduce traffic cnflicts Acquire mre public beach / bluff / headland prperties Acquire mre public frest / muntain prperties Prvide infrmatin abut less-used areas t spread ut use Develp separated bicycle paths n high-use rads Widen rads and add bicycle lanes n high-use rads Educatin and enfrcement abut dg-walking etiquette Manage number / timing f cmmercial kayaking grups Manage number / timing f cmmercial bicycling grups High pririty Management actins (cntinued) Strngly ppse Slightly ppse N pinin I supprt this & it shuld be a Lw pririty Medium pririty Develp mre exhibits at attractins Increase tent camping pprtunities Increase RV camping pprtunities Reduce turism prmtin Mre develpment t accmmdate increased visitatin Limit visitatin t the islands Allw cngestin and crwding t increase Other (please list) High pririty San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 94

100 Summary f supprt fr all actins (frm ferry survey) Figure 64. Overall supprt and ppsitin t management strategies (all ferry survey respndents). Figure 64 shws visitr respnses fr all the management actins listed n the survey, arrayed frm thse receiving the mst supprt at the tp, t thse receiving the least supprt at the bttm. There was 65-95% supprt fr the actins dwn t and including prmting leave cars behind. Reducing turism prmtin was at supprt vs ppsitin. There was 58-85% ppsitin t develping t handle higher use, increasing RV camping, limiting visitatin, and allwing crwding t increase. These management actins are gruped int categries and discussed further belw. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 95

101 Public land acquisitin and infrastructure develpment Figure 65. Percent f visitrs that supprt/ppse different acquisitin and infrastructure actins. There is ver 90% supprt fr acquiring mre public land, with slightly greater supprt fr acquiring shrelands than frest/uplands. There is 85-95% supprt fr cycling imprvement, with slightly greater supprt fr separated bicycle lanes than radside bike lanes. There is ver 80% supprt fr increased parking, in villages and at attractin sites. This fllws frm crwding ratings. There is 93% supprt fr tent camping, but 65% ppsitin t RV camping. There was 78% supprt fr interpretive exhibits at attractins. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 96

102 Transprtatin management actins Figure 66. Percent f visitrs that supprt/ppse different acquisitin and infrastructure actins. There was 70-95% supprt fr all f the transprtatin actins. There is 95% supprt fr separated bike paths and car-bike etiquette educatin, and 86% supprt fr bicycle lanes n rads. There is 92% supprt fr imprving traffic flw in ferry rushes. There is cnsiderable supprt fr increased parking, particularly in villages, but als at attractin sites. This fllws frm crwding ratings. Bus subsidies were supprted mre (82%) than leave cars behind initiatives (70%). San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 97

103 Educatin and regulatin actins Figure 67. Percent f visitrs that supprt/ppse different educatin actins. There was 85-95% supprt fr infrmatin/educatin actins, including dg etiquette, spreading ut use, and car-bike etiquette. There was cnsiderable supprt fr increased parking, particularly in villages, but als at attractin sites. This fllws frm crwding ratings. There is 85-90% supprt fr managing cmmercial kayaking and bicycle turs. San Juan Islands Visitr Study Page 98