O IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED /

Transcription

1 O IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED / f 1tnspratin Wd Ma~ Frecast by Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Center ftic W,4NwaFiscal Years Adminisftatn Offic f Avtaff DTIC ELECT APR jjy;;t 77'e-- statrem A~ 90 FAA) -APO-9O-3

2 Technical Reprt Dcumentatin Page 1. Reprt N. 2. Gvernment Accessin N. 3. Recipient's Catalg N. FAA-APO Title and Subtitle 5. Reprt Date IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED February 1990 FORECAST BY AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER FISCAL 6. Perfrming Organizatin Cde YEARS Perfrming Organizatin Reprt N. 7. Aurhr's FAA-APO Perfrming Organizatin Name and Address 10. Wrk Unit N. (TRAIS) Department f Transprtatin Federal Aviatin Administratin II. Cntract ' Grant N. Office f Aviatin Plicy and Plans Washingtn, DC Type f Reprt and Perid Cvered 12. Spnsring Agency Name and Address Frecast f Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Center Activity FY Spnsring Agency Cde 15. Supplementary Ntes 16. Abstract 1This reprt prvides frecasts f Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) aircraft handled by Federal Aviatin Administratin (FAA-'Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Centers (ARCC)-. The current study is an update t FAA-AVP 80-4, IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED Frecast by Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Center, Fiscal Years The frecasts serve as a base fr the FAA planning and budget prcess in determining future requirements fr facilities, equipment, and manpwer. The frecasts shw that ttal aircraft handled will increase frcn 37.0 millin in FY 1989 t 50.6 millin in FY These natinal ttal numbers alng with the intervening years are brken dwn by FAA regin and fr each air rute traffic cntrl center in this reprt. This appendix cntains a technical descriptin f the data surces, methdlgy, and regressin mdels used in the Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) aircraft activity.. frecasts fr each Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Center ARCC f. Sectin 2.presents an verview f the frecasting mdel fr IFR aircraft activity. Sectin 3. rf-ides a detailed descriptin f the varius data bases used in the frecasts. Sectin 4.0 allcating cunty data t the varius ARTCCs, and estimating mdels t frecast IFR aviatin activity. The final sectin presents the frecasting mdels fr IFR departures and vers at each ARTCC. ' Key Wrds Distributin Statement Air Rute Traffic Cntrbl Centers Dcument is available t the public Aviatin Activity Frecasts, Federal thrugh the Natinal Technical Infzmatir Aviatin Administratin, Air Carriers, Service GeneralAviatin, Military AViatin, Springfield, VA Aircraft 6fp6-ra-rs Scurit Clssif. (f this r4 2.Sc ity Classif. fthis page) 21. N. f Pages 22. Prtce UNCLASSI FIED Frm DOT F (8-72) UNCLASSIFIED Reprductin f cmpleted page authrized

3 Frecast f EMR Aircraft Handled By Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Center: Fiscal Years Task HI: Final Methdlgy Reprt Cntract N. DTFA01-88-C Wrk Order 12 Submitted t: Office f Aviatin Plicy and Plans The Federal Aviatin Administratin 800 Independence Avenue SW Washingtn, DC ASI 1361 February 12, 1990

4 Table f Cntents INTRODUCTION... 3 INDEX TO FAA REGIONS AND AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS... 5 AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS... 6 NATIONAL TOTAL... 7 ALASKAN REGION... 8 Anchrage... 9 CENTRAL REGION Kansas City EASTERN REGION New Yrk W ashingtn GREAT LAKES REGION Chicag Cleveland Indianaplis M inneaplis NEW ENGLAND REGION Bstn NORTHWEST-MOUNTAIN REGION D enver Salt Lake City Seattle SOUTHERN REGION A tlanta Jacksnville M emphis M iam i SOUTHWEST REGION Albuquerque Frt W rth Hustn WESTERN-PACIFIC REGION Guam (CERAP) Ls Angeles Oakland (Cntinued) Page I

5 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTQC FY Table f Cntents APPENDIX: Regressin Mdel fr Frecasting Instrument Flight Rule Aircraft Activity at Federal Aviatin Administratin Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Centers Page 2

6 Intrductin INTRODUCTION This rcprt prvides frecasts f Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) aircraft handled by Federal Aviatin Administratin (FAA) Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Centers (ARTCC). The current study is an update t FAA-AVP 80-4, IFRAIRCRAFTHANDLED Frecast by Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Center, Fiscal Years Figure 1 depicts the bundaries f each ARTCC in the cntinental United States as f April, The frecasts serve as a base fr the FAA planning and budget prcess in determining future requirements fr facilities, equipment, and manpwer. Frecasts f IFR departures and vers by air carrier, air taxi, general aviatin, an military aircraft are presented fr fiscal years 1990 thrugh 2005 fr each perating ARTCC. Histrical data are als shwn fr the years 1985 thrugh The frecasts presented in this reprt agree with the natinal IFR aircraft handled frecasts. The natinal frecasts call fr mdest annual grwth in air carrier and general aviatin activity ver the frecast perid, apprximately 2.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. Air taxi activity is prjected t increase smewhat mre rapidly, abut 3.2 percent per year. Military activity is expected t remain at 1989 levels, with small declines ccurring in sme centers. An index t FAA regins and ARTCCs is presented belw in rder t facilitate the use f this reprt. Althugh reginal and center bundaries d nt cincide, the reginal ttals reprted herein include all aircraft handled by centers headquartered within the regin. A -CesiOl Fr tis CRA&I CTIC TAB 0 U f a l m t ;,'- d 0] Justefrcj], By Dist! A-I Page 3

7 IFIR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY F~gue 1: Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Center Bundaries UNITED STATES (Minlnd) Page 4

8 bntductin INDEX TO FAA REGIONS AND AIR ROUTE TRAFIC CONTROL CENTERS Rk-1l ALASKAN CENTRAL EASTERN GREAT LAKES NEW ENGLAND NORTHWEST-MOUNTAIN SOUTHERN SOUTHWEST WESTERN-PACIFIC Centers Anchrage Kansas City New Yrk Washingtn Chicag Cleveland Indianaplis Minneaplis Bstn Denver Salt Lake City Seattle Atlanta Jacksnville Memphis Miami Albuquerque Frt Wrth Hustn Guam (CERAP) Ls Angeles Oakland Page 5

9 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS The fllwing pages cntain tables f IFR aircraft handled by user categry fr the United States, each FAA regin, and each ARTCC. "IFR aircraft handled" is defined as the number f IFR departures multiplied by tw, plus the number f IFR vers. Figures are presented n a fiscal year basis fr bth histrical ( ) and frecast ( ) years. Psge 6

10 IFR Aviatin Activity Frecasts IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Natinal Ttal Page 7

11 FR Arcraft Handled by ARTCC FY IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Alaskan Regin Page 8

12 IFR Aviatin Activity Frecat IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) Anchrage FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Pagc 9

13 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thmsands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Central Regin m &, Page 10

14 [FR Aviatin Activity Frecasts IMR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Kansas City Page 11

15 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY FR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Eastern Regin Page 12

16 IFR Aviatn Acbivity Frecass IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) New Yrk FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Washingtn Page 13

17 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Gret Lai= Regin &62S Page 14

18 IFR Aviatin Activity Frecads IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) Chicag FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Cleveland Page 15

19 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Minneapls g Page 16

20 IFR Aviatin Activity FragW IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL New England Regin Page 17

21 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) Bstn FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Page Is

22 IFR Aviatin Activity Frecaas IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Nrthwest-Muntain Regin Page 19

23 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) Denver FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Salt Lake City Page 20

24 _FR Aviatin Activity Frcum IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) Seattle FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL F Page 21

25 lfr Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY FR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusand) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Suthern Regin Page 22

26 IFR Aviatin Activity Frecasts IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) Atlanta FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Jacksnville Page 23

27 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (TuSands) Memphis Miami FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL bi Page 24

28 [FR Avain Activity Frecaga LFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Suthwest Regin Page 25

29 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (ThMusands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Albuquerque Frt Wrth U Page 26

30 IFR Avii Acvity Frmats MR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) Hustn FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Page 27

31 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thunds) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMM-UTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Wes-rn-Pacific Regin D Page 28

32 IFR Aviati Activity Frecaft LFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thwsands) FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Guam CERAP Ls Angeles Page 29

33 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY FR AIRCRAFT HANDLED BY USER CATEGORY (Thusands) Oakland FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL Page 30

34 Aivendix APPENDIX REGRESSION MODEL FOR FORECASTING INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULE AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY AT FEDERAL AVIATION ADLIISTRATION AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS Page 31

35 Appendix Table f Cntents-Appendix 1.0 Intrductin... A2 2.0 Overview f Mdel... A3 3.0 Data Bases... A5 3.1 Industry Emplyment by Cunty, A5 3.2 Persnal Incme by Cunty, A6 3.3 ARTCC Bundaries, with Changes... A8 3.4 IFR Aircraft Activity, by ARTCC... A9 3.5 Other Variables... A Prcedures Used in Mdel Estimatin and Prjectin... All 4.1 Prjectin f Independent Variables... All Industry Emplyment by Cunty... All Ppulatin and Persnal Incme by Cunty... A Allcatin f Cunties t ARTCCs... A Mdel Estimatin and Prjectin f IFR Departures... A Mdel Estimatin and Prjectin f IFR Overs... A Estimated Equatins fr IFR Departures and Overs... A Estimated Equatins fr IFR Departures... A Estimated Equatins fr IFR Dmestic and Oceanic Overs... A30 \I Page A l

36 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY Intrductin This appendix cntains a technical descriptin f the data surces, methdlgy, and regressin mdels used in the Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) aircraft activity frecasts fr each Air Rute Traffic Cntrl Center (ARTCC). The mdels have been utilized t generate prjectins f aircraft activity by air carrier, air taxi, general aviatin, and military aircraft fr the perid 1990 thrugh These activity frecasts will serve as a basis fr Federal Aviatin Administratin (FAA) decisins regarding manpwer, facilities, and equipment requirements at each ARTCC. Sectin 2.0 presents an verview f the frecasting mdel fr IFR aircraft activity. Sectin 3.0 prvides a detailed descriptin f the varius data bases used in the frecasts, including demgraphic and ecnmic data as well as infrmatin n ARTCC bundary changes. Sectin 4.0 describes the methdlgy emplyed in prjecting the independent variables by cunty, allcating cunty data t the varius ARTCCs, and estimating mdels t frecast IFR aviatin activity. The final sectin presents the frecasting mdels fr IFR departures and vers at each ARTCC. Page A2

37 Appendix 2.0 Overview f Mdel Aviatin activity in a given gegraphic regin is dependent upn a wide array f sciecnmic, demgraphic, and technlgical factrs. In cnstructing mdels t accurately frecast such activity it is necessary t limit the number f variables used in rder t make the mdels manageable and practicable. Thus, ur wrking hypthesis fr cnstructing the frecasting mdels has been that departures (by user categry) frm a given ARTCC are dependent n certain ecnmic and demgraphic variables. These variables, which include incme and emplyment in particular industrial sectrs, as well as ppulatin, cntribute t the demand fr aircraft departures. The number f seats per aircraft was included in the mdel cnstructin prcess, in rder t accunt fr the effect f supply cnsideratins upn IFR departures. Because vers are defined as flights ver a given ARTCC when the aircraft des nt land in r take ff frm that center, it is assumed that vers fr each ARTCC (by user categry) are related t departures frm ther ARTCCs, rather than being a functin f lcal ecnmic cnditins r departures. Thus, infrmatin n departures frm all ARTCCs, by user categry, is used as a basis fr frecasting vers. The bundaries fr each ARTCC are determined by a cmbinatin f air traffic cnditins and technlgical factrs, and d nt usually cincide with state r cunty bundaries. Thus the best way t assemble ARTCC-wide data sets is t begin with the smallest gegraphic units fr which data are available, and allcate each unit t the apprpriate ARTCC. At the present time, cunties are the smallest gegraphic units fr which detailed ecnmic and demgraphic data are available n a natinwide basis. These data are currently available fr the years 1969 thrugh Estimates fr the years 1988 and 1989 as well as frecasts fr 1990 thrugh 2005 were made fr each cunty individually (see sectin 4.1). The next step was t allcate each cunty's data t the apprpriate ARTCC. Befre the aggregatin prcess culd begin, hwever, an additinal factr had t be cnsidered. Due t changing air traffic cnditins, ARTCC bundaries have been changed numerus times ver the last twenty years. It was therefre necessary t aggregate data fr each set f histrical ARTCC bundaries. Sectin 4.2 discusses the methdlgy fr allcating cunty data by ARTCC. Once the independent variables were prperly prjected and allcated, the prcess f frecasting aviatin activity began (see sectin 4.3). This was a three-step prcess. First, the stepwise regressin technique, which identifies mdels with the maximum R 2 and statistically significant independent variables, was utilized t find the five r six "best" mdels fr prjecting each ARTCC's departures by user categry. The next step was t examine the equatins generated by the stepwise regressin technique and t select the mst plausible and reasnable mdels. Finally, rdinary least squares (OLS) regressins were run fr the selected mdels. The equatins generated by the OLS prcedure were used t generate frecasts fr each Center's Page A3

38 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY departures, by user categry, fr the perid 1990 thrugh The departure frecasts were adjusted t cnfrm t natinal prjectins published by FAA. The adjusted departure frecasts were used as independent variables in running stepwise regressins fr dmestic and ceanic vers. Again, the stepwise regressin utput was examined t ensure that reasnable mdels were selected, and the latter were emplyed in a final rund f OLS regressins. The OLS regressins were used t generate vers frecasts, which were adjusted t cnfrm t the natinal cntrl ttals. Sectin 5.0 lists the estimated equatins fr departures and vers fr each ARTCC. Page A4

39 AvDendix 3.0 Data Bases 3.1 Industry Emplyment by Cunty, Industry emplyment is estimated annually by the Bureau f Ecnmic Analysis (BEA) f the U.S. Department f Cmmerce. The latest year fr which data are currently available is Estimates fr 1988 and 1989 as well as prjectins fr 1990 thrugh 2005 were prepared by cnstructing frecasts f emplyment by cunty fr each industry (see sectin 4. 1). Histrical emplyment data were btained frm BEA at the tw-digit Standard Industrial Classificatin (SIC) level, fr the fllwing sectrs: SIC Cde Sectr Name 010 Ttal Emplyment 020 Wage and Salary Emplyment 040 Prprietr Emplyment 050 Farm Prprietr Emplyment 060 Nnfarm Prprietr Emplyment 070 Farm Emplyment 080 Nnfarm Emplyment 090 Ttal Private Emplyment 100 Agricultural Services, Frestry, Fisheries, Other Emplyment 130 Mining Emplyment 180 Cnstructin Emplyment 190 Manufacturing Emplyment 440 Transprtatin, Utilities, Cmmunicatins Emplyment 510 Whlesale Trade Emplyment 520 Retail Trade Emplyment 530 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Emplyment 560 Services Emplyment 630 Ttal Gvernment/Gvernment Enterprises Emplyment 640 Federal Civilian Emplyment 650 Federal Military Emplyment 660 State and Lcal Gvernment Emplyment Page A5

40 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY Persnal Incme by Cunty, Persnal incme and earnings by cunty, fr each SIC sectr, are als estimated annually by BEA. The data set btained frm BEA als included infrmatin n ppulatin fr each cunty. As with the emplyment data, the latest year fr which BEA estimates are available is Estimates fr 1988 and 1989 as well as prjectins fr 1990 thrugh 2005 were made at the cunty level fr each sectr (see Sectin 4.1). Histrical data fr the fllwing sectrs were btained frm BEA: SIC Cde Sectr Name 010 Ttal Persnal Incme 011 Nnfarm Persnal Incme 012 Farm Persnal Incme 020 Ppulatin 030 Per Capita Persnal Incme 040 Earnings by Place f Wrk 041 Minus: Persnal Cntributins fr Scial Insurance 042 Plus: Adjustment fr Residence 045 Equals: Earnings by Residence 046 Plus: Dividends, Interest, Rent 047 Plus: Transfer Payments 050 Wage and Salary Incme 060 Other Labr Incme 070 Prprietr Incme 071 Farm Prprietr Incme 072 Nnfarm Prprietr Incme 081 Farm Incme 082 Nnfarm Incme 090 Ttal Private Incme 100 Agricultural Services, Frestry, Fisheries, Other Incme 130 Mining Incme 180 Cnstructin Incme 190 Manufacturing Incme 440 Transprtatin, Utilities, Cmmunicatins Incme 510 Whlesale Trade Incme 520 Retail Trade Incme 530 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Incme 560 Services Incme Page A6

41 (Cntinued) 630 Ttal Gvernment/Gvernment Enterprises Incme 640 Federal Civilian Incme 650 Federal Military Incme 660 State and Lcal Gvernment Incme ADVDendiX Page A7

42 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY ARTCC Bundaries, with Changes Fr the prir study, cunty assignments fr the fur different sets f ARTCC bundaries in use between 1969 and 1981 were cmpiled n a cmputer printut. Infrmatin n bundary changes during the perid 1981 t 1989 was btained frm the Office f Charting and Gedetic Services f the Natinal Ocean Service, an agency f the U.S. Natinal Oceanic and Atmspheric Administratin, in the frm f maps depicting all changes t ARTCC bundaries. These maps were carefully examined, and all bundary changes were nted n a single reference map. The latter map was then verlaid by a transparent map f U.S. cunties, with changes in the ARTCC designatin f each cunty being nted in a text file. The text file cntaining bundary change infrmatin fr each cunty was then used t cnstruct six additinal sets f ARTCC cunty assignments. The ten ARTCC bundary sets were allcated as fllws: ARTCC Bundary Set Year(s) ARTCC AFTCC ARTCC ARTCC ARTCC ARTCC ARTCC ARTCC ARTCC ARTCC and later Page A8

43 Appeadix 3.4 IFR Aircraft Activity, by ARTCC Data n IFR aircraft activity were btained frm FAA surces fr fiscal years 19,69 thrugh The data were assembled int a SAS data set, which was later merged with the ecnmic and demgraphic data t cnduct the aviatin activity frecasts. The types f IFR data cllected fr each ARTCC inclade: Departures 1. Air Carrier 2. Air Taxi 3. General Aviatin 4. Military Dmestic Overs 1. Air Carrier 2. Air Taxi 3. General Aviatin 4. Military Oceanic Overs 1. Air Carrier 2. Air Taxi 3. General Aviatin 4. Military Page A9

44 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY Other Variables Three ther variables were utilized during the aviatin activity frecasts: seats per aircraft, PATCODUM, and DEREGDUM I. Infrmatin n histrical and prjected seats per aircraft fr air carriers (n a natinal average basis) was btained directly frm FAA fr the years 1969 thrugh Seats per aircraft were cmputed fr the years 2001 thrugh 2005 by extraplating the previus years' data. PATCODUM, a dummy variable used t capture the effects f the air traffic cntrllers strike, was set at 1 fr each year between 1980 and 1983 inclusive, with ther years receiving a 0. Similarly, DEREGDUM, a dummy variable used t capture the effects f airline deregulatin, was set at 1 fr all years prir t 1980, and at 0 fr all later years. (See sectin 4.3 fr mre infrmatin n the aviatin activity frecasts.) ICHIDUM, a dummy variable set t 1 fr years prir t 1982, was used nly in the mdel fr IFR air carrier departures at the Chicag ARTCC. Page A 10

45 Appendix 4.0 Prcedures Used in Mdel Estimatin and Prjectin 4.1 Prjectin f Independent Variables Industry Emplyment by Cunty The fllwing steps describe the prjectin f industry emplyment by cunty fr the years 1988 thrugh Briefly, natinal frecasts fr each sectr were btained frm FAA (based n frecasts by utside cnsultants), and assembled int data sets. Then reginal frecasts were cnstructed fr each "building blck" sectr, using the natinal frecasts as cntrl area ttals. Next, state frecasts were prjected, based n the reginal frecasts. Finally, cunty frecasts were derived frm the state prjectins. The first step was t frecast emplyment in "basic" industries, including: Farm Emplyment Agricultural Services, Frestry, Fisheries, Other Emplyment Mining Emplyment Manufacturing Emplyment Federal Civilian Emplyment These sectrs were estimated based n the changing share f the "frecast area" (i.e., reginal, state, r cunty) with respect t the relevant "cntrl area" (i.e., natinal, reginal, r state, respectively). Share was cmputed by : SI' t = RE,,, /USE,, where: SIt is the relative share f the frecast area in industry I in year t. REI~ t is the crrespnding reginal (frecast area) emplyment. USEI t is the crrespnding U.S. (cntrl area) emplyment. Then, S,, t was regressed n time: S= + atime in rder t generate predicted shares fr future years. Emplyment fr the years 1988 thrugh 2 As defined here, 'building blck' sectrs are thse SIC classificatins which are nt subttals f ther sectrs, at the tw-digit level. 'Derived* sectrs, such as "Ttal Private Emplyment* are cmputed as sums f certain building blck sectrs, accrding t BEA definitins. Page AlI

46 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY was cmputed by RE1., = S' t * USE1.t Other sectrs were assumed t depend upn the basic industries, and include: Cnstructin Emplyment Transprtatin, Cmmunicatins, Public Utilities Emplyment Whlesale Trade Emplyment Retail Trade Emplyment Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Emplyment Services Emplyment State & Lcal Gvernment Emplyment The methdlgy fr estimating emplyment fr the abve industries (referred t as "residential" industries) was t first cmpute reginal and U.S. subttals f Basic Industries, xb t and xus t, respectively, and then t cmpute the Relative Multiplier: RMI= -- REIt/zB t USE,,,/zUS, Then RM 1,, was regressed n Time: RMh' t =. + Time and predicted multipliers were generated fr the perid 1988 thrugh Finally, emplyment fr future years was cmputed by USE t RELt = RMI,t * * xbi' t ZUS't These steps prduced frecasts f emplyment at the reginal level in each building blck sectr. Frecasts fr derived emplyment sectrs, were cmputed based upn BEA definitins. After the reginal frecasts were cmplete, state frecasts were generated frm reginal data using the same prcedures listed abve. Finally, cunty frecasts were prduced frm the state prjectins. Page A12

47 Appeadix Ppulatin and Persnal Incme by Cunty The general methdlgy fr frecasting cunty persnal incme was the same as that fr the implyment prjectins. Natinal frecasts were used as a basis fr prjecting reginal data, with state and finally cunty data being frecast in successin. The fllwing steps describe the prjectin f persnal incme by cunty fr the years 1988 thrugh as First, ppulatin was frecast by calculating the "ppulatin multiplier" fr year t, PM, RErf.RPt 1 PM= USEr,t/USPt where: RET, t is the ttal Reginal (frecast area) Emplyment in year t. RP t is the Reginal (frecast area) Ppulatin in year t. USE.r, t is the ttal U.S. (cntrl area) Emplyment in year t. USP is the U.S. (cntrl area) Ppulatin in year t. Next, PM was regressed n time: PM = + BTime and predicted ppulatin multipliers fr the frecast perid were generated. (frecast area) ppulatin fr the years 1988 thrugh 2005 was calculated by Then reginal RE t * USP t RP USE, * PMt Persnal incme by cunty in building blck sectrs was frecast in three grups: ppulatinrelated sectrs, emplyment-related sectrs, and ther sectrs (see belw). Ppulatin-related sectrs included: Persnal Cntributins fr Scial Insurance Adjustment fr Residence Dividends, Interest, Rent Transfer Payments Page A 13

48 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY A multiplier fr each industry, M 1,, was cmputed by RI.tRP, M = US~tI1USPt where: RII t is the Reginal (frecast area) Incme in sectr I in year t. RP, is the Reginal (frecast area) Ppulatin in year t. USI[, t is the U.S. (cntrl area) Incme in sectr I in year t. USP t is the U.S. (cntrl area) Ppulatin in year t. Again, the multiplier was regressed n time: MI= t - a + atime and generated the predicted multiplier fr future years. Incme fr the years 1988 thrugh 2005 was estimated in ppulatin-related sectrs as fllws: USIIt RII t MI t * *P t USPt Reginal (frecast area) incme in certain sectrs was assumed t depend upn emplyment in the given frecast area. The "emplyment-related" incme sectrs included: Farm Incme Agricultural Services, Frestry, Fisheries, Other Incme Mining Incme Cnstructin Incme Manufacturing Incme Transprtatin, Cmmunicatins, Public Utilities Incme Whlesale Trade Incme Retail Trade Incme Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Incme Services Incme Federal Civilian Incme Federal Military Incme State & Lcal Gvernment Incme Page A14

49 ADm=dizX The multiplier, Mit was calculated by MI, -- where: RI1, t is the Reginal (frecast area) Incme in sectr I in year t. RE,, t is the Reginal (frecast area) Emplyment sectr I in year t. USII, t is the U.S. (cntrl area) Incme in sectr I in year t. USEI, t is the U.S. (frecast area) Emplyment sectr I in year t. Predicted multipliers were generated using the same methds as thse explained abve. Reginal (frecast area) incme fr future years in emplyment-related sectrs was calculated by USII,t RIt, t = MI t * USEI.t * RI t Frecasts fr the remaining building blck incme sectrs, including Wage and Salary Incme Other Labr Incme Farm Prprietr Incme Nnfarm Prprietr Incme were calculated using the fllwing multiplier: Sgl,t/saii, t M I' t = USII,t/RUSII, t where: RRII. t is the relevant 3 Reginal (frecast area) Incme in sectr I in year t. RUSI[. t is the relevant U.S. (cntrl area) Incme in sectr I in year t. Predicted multipliers were generated using the same methds as thse explained abve. Reginal 3 The 'relevant" sectr is Farm Incme fr Farm Prprietr Incme, and Nnfarm Incme fr Wage and Salary, Other Labr, and Nnfarm Prprietr Incme. Page A15

50 IFR Aircraft Handed by ARTCC FY (frecast area) incme fr future years in this last grup f sectrs was calculated by USIIt - I-- t = MI- t * *Rp RUSIIt Finally, frecasts fr the derived sectrs were calculated accrding t BEA definitins frm the building blck cmpnents estimated previusly. After the reginal frecasts were cmplete, state frecasts were generated frm reginal data using the same prcedures listed abve. Finally, cunty frecasts were prduced frm the state prjectins. Page A16

51 Aiwnd x 4.2 Alcatin f Cunties t ARTCCs As mentined previusly, ARTCC bundaries d nt usually cincide with established plitical bundaries. Furthermre, the ARTCC bundaries are nt static; they are altered ver time t reflect changes in air traffic and t accunt fr changes in technlgy. There have been apprximately ten majr changes t ARTCC bundaries ver the last twenty years, a fact which must be taken int accunt when allcating cunty data t ARTCCs. Fr the prir study, fur sets f such bundary changes were cmpiled up t The task remaining fr the current study, therefre, was t gather infrmatin n all changes ccurring since (See Sectin 3.3) Once the data n different ARTCC bundary sets was btained, the aggregatin prcess was implemented by assigning cunty level data fr each year t the relevant ARTCC, and cnstructing subttals f each ecnmic and demgraphic variable by ARTCC. All persnal incme variables were deflated using natinal frecasts f the cnsumer expenditure deflatr t cnvert incme data t cnstant dllars. The deflated incme data, alng with emplyment and ppulatin data fr each ARTCC, were then merged int a data set with the IFR aviatin activity data btained frm FAA. Page A17

52 IFR Aircraft Handled by ARTCC FY Mdel Estimatin and Prjectin f [FR Departures The basic medel used in prjecting IFR departures by user categry fr each ARTCC 4 was as fllws: Y ='M + Bnx I + B2x BnX n + E where: Y represents the dependent variable (i.e., IFR departures fr a given user categry). x 1, x 2,..., x. represent the independent variables (i.e., ecnmic and demgraphic variables, seats per aircraft, r ne f the dummy variables)., is the intercept. B19 B2,... B. represent the regressin cefficients fr independent variables with crrespnding subscripts. E represents the randm errr term, whse expected value is assumed t be zer. Due t bth the large number f independent variables and the lack f studies regarding the relatinship between IFR departures and independent variables at the ARTCC level, the stepwise regressin technique was used t suggest pssible frecasting mdels. This technique evaluates each independent variable in the mdel, entering thse variables that meet certain statistical criteria. The selectin methd emplyed chse variables based n their cntributin t R-Square, r fit, between the predicted values given by the mdel and the actual (histrical) data. Due t the extensive cmputatins required by this technique, a subset f the independent variables was chsen, frm which mdels fr frecasting IFR departures were selected. The subset included the fllwing variables: Ttal Incme and Emplyment Ppulatin Wage and Salary Incme Nnfarm Incme and Emplyment Ttal Private Incme and Emplyment Manufacturing Incme and Emplyment Transprtatin, Utilities, Cmmunicatins Incme and Emplyment Retail Trade Incme and Emplyment Services Incme and Emplyment 4Because f the relative scarcity f ecnmic data fr Guam, and due t the fact that it is nt a true ARTCC, frecasts fr the Guam CERAP were cmputed independently by extraplating the ttal aircraft handled grwth rate t future years. The Guam frecasts were nt included in either the adjustment prcess r the natinal ttals. Page A 18

53 ADmendix Gvernment/Gvernment Enterprises Incme and Emplyment Federal Military Incme and Emplyment State and Lcal Gvernment Incme and Emplyment Seats per Aircraft PATCODUM DEREGDUM The utput f the stepwise regressin prcedure was then examined in rder t chse mdels that were bth statistically significant and theretically reasnable. It was assumed that military departures fr an ARTCC were related t military emplyment r incme. Once the mdels had been selected, an OLS prcedure was used t generate equatins and frecasts fr IFR departures by user categry fr each ARTCC. At this pint, the sum f all ARTCCs was cmpared with natinal frecasts independently derived and supplied by FAA. The ARTCC frecasts derived frm the estimated equatins were adjusted t the natinal ttals by use f the fllwing frmula: FAAj ADi ---- RDij RTj where: ADJ is the adjusted departures frecast fr ARTCC i in user categry J in a given year. FAAj is the FAA natinal frecast fr user categry j in a given year. RDi, is the raw IFR departures frecast fr ARTCC i in user categry j in a given year. RT is ERDij ver all ARTCCs in user categryj in a given year. The estimated equatins fr IFR departures are presented in Sectin 5.1. Page A19