Ubah?: Voting pattern in a sectarianized post-information-monopoly population I. predictions from a simple projection model

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Lorena Clark
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1 Ubah?: Vting pattern in a sectarianized pst-infrmatin-mnply ppulatin I. predictins frm a simple prjectin mdel W. A. T. Wan Abdullah Physics Department, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (wat@um.edu.my) 29 April 2013 Abstract. We predict the results f the upcming electins in Malaysia using a prjective mdel fr a sectarianized pst-infrmatin-mnply ppulatin. Intrductin A central questin in ecnphysics and sciphysics is hw far can a cllectin f humans be described as a statistical system, like an ensemble f interacting atms. D the cmple interactin between human agents frce us t g beynd cnventinal statistical mechanics, r are they washed ut in the limit f large agent numbers? Sme insight int this issue can be btained by lking at large scial phenmena like general electins. Here we predict the results f the upcming electins in Malaysia (GE13, scheduled May 5 th 2013, a few days in the future at the pint f writing this) using a prjective mdel fr a sectarianized pst-infrmatin-mnply ppulatin. We await the real results in a few days t judge whether such mdels, with cmpleity washed ut, can be acceptable. Geplitics Malaysia, with a ppulatin f abut 27 millin peple, cnsisting f native Malays (and several thers) and naturalized initially immigrant (abut third generatin nw) ethic Chinese and Indians mstly, gained independence frm British clnizers in 1957 and frmed a federatin f 11 (later 13) states plus several federal territries. Citizens vte fr representatives t frm the federal gvernment as well as fr thse t frm the respective state gvernments. Since independence, the Barisan Nasinal (BN) and its predecessr has been ruling, but nw a viable cmpetitr has arrived in the frm f a calitin f several parties, called Pakatan Rakyat (PR). There are als sme ther small parties like BERJASA, SAPP, etc. Since independence, the ruling BN has mre r less mnplized infrmatin thrugh print and bradcast media mnply, but recently this has been challenged by the advent f the internet and ppular scial media. This has mved supprt away frm BN t PR, as can be deduced frm the 2008 electin results, when states in internet-dense regins fell t PR. Mdel We make predictins using infrmatin n vter sizes and their ethnic fractins, and the majrities frm 2008, which are freely available (see e.g. [1]). We nly lk at general statistical shifts in respective cnstituencies, largely ignring lcality and individual candidate persnality effects.

2 It can be generally agreed that there wuld be a 5-10% swing in Malay vtes twards PKR, judging frm sentiments but dampened by misinfrmatin effects. The actual value wuld depend n the degree f access t scial media cntent f the varius vting lcatins. We assume that the Chinese has already swung in 2008, as can be inferred frm the vting pattern in 2008, and thus wuld nt cntribute any effective swing, and that the Indian and smaller cmmunities als wuld cntribute negligibly, given swing times vter size. We als assume that there wuld be rughly 70% vter turnut. As fr the effects f new registered vters, we assume that the respective vter patterns wuld scale up. It fllws then that, if the Malay vter fractin fr a cnstituency f vter size N is α, and the 2008 BN majrity is m, then the needed percentage Malay swing fr a PR win is σ = 100m/(0.7 α N) If fr the particular federal cnstituency there was n cntest in 2008, then we estimate the majrity frm the results fr the crrespnding state seats. We cmpared these values with the epected swing magnitude available cnstituency by cnstituency. Results The results are shwn in the fllwing table. It predicts a change f federal gvernment t PR, and the win f 6 states t PR cmpared t 7 t BN (Sarawak state electins have been eecuted prir t this, with BN winning). Number f seats predicted Gvernment BN PR thers Federal PR Perlis state BN 11 4 Kedah state PR 3 33 Kelantan state PR 3 42 Terengganu state PR Pulau Pinang state PR 3 37 Perak state PR Pahang state BN Selangr state PR 8 48 Negeri Sembilan state BN Melaka state BN 20 8 Jhr state BN Sabah state BN The cnstituent-by-cnstituent predictins are given in the Appendi. Cnclusins We have predicted the results f the upcming electins in Malaysia using a prjective mdel fr a sectarianized pst-infrmatin-mnply ppulatin. We await the real results t see if the mdel and its basis are acceptable. Reference [1] Berita Harian, 21 April 2013.

3 Appendi Federal Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes P001 P002 P003 P004 P005 P006 P007 P008 P009 BERJASA may pull sme Malay vtes frm PR P010 P011 P012 P013 P014 P015 P016 P017 P018 P019 P020 P021 P022 P023 P024 P025 P026 P027 P028 P029 P030 P031 P032 P033 P034 P035 P036 P037 P038 P039 P040 P041 P042 P043 P044

4 P045 P046 P047 P048 P049 P050 P051 P052 P053 P054 P055 P056 P057 P058 P059 P060 P061 P062 P063 P064 P065 P066 P067 P068 P069 P070 P071 P072 P073 P074 P075 P076 P077 P078 P079 P080 P081 P082 P083 P084 P085 P086 P087 P088 P089 P090 P091 P092 P093 P094

5 P095 P096 P097 BERJASA may pull sme Malay vtes frm PR P098 P099 P100 P101 P102 P103 P104 P105 P106 P107 P108 P109 BERJASA may pull sme Malay vtes frm PR P110 P111 P112 P113 P114 P115 BERJASA may pull sme Malay vtes frm PR P116 P117 P118 P119 P120 P121 P122 P123 P124 P125 P126 P127 P128 BERJASA may pull sme Malay vtes frm PR P129 P130 P131 P132 P133 P134 P135 P136 P137 P138 P139 P140 Clse P141 P142 P143 P144

6 P145 P146 Clse P147 P148 P149 P150 P151 P152 P153 P154 P155 P156 P157 P158 P159 P160 P161 P162 P163 P164 P165 P166 P167 P168 P169 P170 P171 - SAPP was big winner in last electins P172 P173 P174 P175 P176 P177 Last winner was in BN nw standing in PR P178 P179 P180 Sectarian vtes may split between BN, STAR P181 P182 P183 P184 P185 P186 P187 P188 P189 P190 P191 P192 P193 P194

7 P195 P196 P197 P198 P199 P200 P201 P202 Big swing assumed P203 P204 P205 P206 P207 P208 P209 P210 P211 P212 P213 P214 P215 P216 P217 P218 P219 P220 P221 P222 Perlis State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes N13

8 Kedah State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes BERJASA may pull sme Malay vtes frm PR N13 N29 N33 N34 N35 BERJASA may pull sme Malay vtes frm PR N36 BN () / PR ()/ thers Kelantan State Gvernment Ntes

9 N13 N29 N33 N34 N35 N36 N37 N38 N39 N40 N41 N42 N43 N44 N45 Terengganu State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes

10 N13 Malay sectarian vtes help PR 0 N29 Pulau Pinang State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes N13 ne PR cand. gives way, but may lse vtes

11 N29 N33 N34 N35 N36 N37 N38 N39 N40 Perak State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes N13 BERJASA may pull sme Malay vtes frm PR

12 N29 N33 N34 N35 N36 N37 N38 N39 N40 N41 N42 N43 N44 N45 N46 N47 N48 N49 N50 N51 N52 N53 N54 N55 N56 N57 N58 N59 Pahang State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes

13 N13 N29 N33 N34 N35 N36 N37 N38 N39 N40 N41 N42 Selangr State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes

14 N13 N29 N33 N34 N35 N36 N37 N38 N39 Tw PR candidates. Vtes diluted. N40 N41 N42 N43 N44 N45 N46 N47 N48 N49 N50 N51 N52 N53 N54 N55 N56 Negeri Sembilan State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes

15 Clse N13 N29 N33 N34 N35 N36 Melaka State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes

16 N13 Clse Jhr State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes Clse N13 Clse

17 N29 N33 N34 N35 N36 N37 N38 N39 N40 N41 N42 N43 Clse N44 N45 N46 N47 N48 N49 N50 N51 N52 N53 N54 N55 N56 Sabah State Gvernment BN () / PR ()/ thers Ntes N13 - SAPP cand. wn big Federal last electins

18 N29 N33 N34 N35 N36 N37 N38 N39 N40 N41 N42 N43 N44 N45 N46 N47 N48 N49 N50 N51 N52 N53 N54 N55 N56 N57 N58 N59 N60

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