su mejor Modelling Delay Propagation Trees for Scheduled Flights Isdefe ATM Seminar, 11 th edition BRUNO CAMPANELLI, IFISC (UIB-CSIC)

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1 data-driven mdelling f the netwrk-wide extensin f the Tree f REactinary delays in ECAC area su mejr Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights ATM Seminar, 11 th editin BRUNO CAMPANELLI, IFISC (UIB-CSIC) 25 th June, Lisbn

2 MOTIVATION Wrldwide air transprt netwrk respnsible fr the mbility f almst 700 millin passengers a year. Failures and inefficiencies f the air transprtatin system have an imprtant impact in passengers satisfactin and they als have large ecnmic csts, bth direct and indirect. Previus results already btained fr the US suggest perfrming a similar analysis fr ECAC area wuld be fruitful Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

3 SCOPE AND MODELLING APPROACH Objective: analysing and characterizing the respnse f the Eurpean ATM system t delay prpagatin. Agent-based, data-driven apprach. Mechanisms included in the mdel: Aircraft rtatins; Passenger and crew cnnectins; Finite airprts capacities (ATFM slt management) Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

4 THE DATA Mdel input recnstructed frm empirical data: Flight schedules with primary delays; Passenger cnnectivity patterns; Airprt capacities. Flight perfrmance data used fr mdel validatin Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

5 AIRCRAFT ROTATIONS Intrinsic t the schedule, Turnarund times can be autmatically btained frm reduced t recver delay, but schedule data. nt belw a fixed minimum Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

6 AIRCRAFT ROTATIONS Intrinsic t the schedule, Turnarund times can be autmatically btained frm reduced t recver delay, but schedule data. nt belw a fixed minimum. Scheduled departure Actual departure Scheduled arrival Actual Scheduled arrival departure next leg Departure delay Scheduled turnarund time Flight time Minimum turnarund Time Delay absrbed by turnarund: next leg departs n time Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

7 AIRCRAFT ROTATIONS Intrinsic t the schedule, Turnarund times can be autmatically btained frm reduced t recver delay, but schedule data. nt belw a fixed minimum. Scheduled departure Actual Scheduled departure arrival Actual arrival Scheduled departure next leg Departure delay Time Scheduled turnarund time Flight time Minimum turnarund Next flight in the rtatin is affected Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

8 PASSENGER CONNECTIVITY Passengers cnnect t randmly selected flights with prbabilities extracted frm market sectr data, prvided that: Enugh buffer time between flights; Flights nt t far apart in time; Cmpatible rigins / destinatins. Effective parameter a mdulates the prbabilities f cnnecting vs. nn-cnnecting: Airlines d nt necessarily wait fr all cnnecting passengers Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

9 CREW CONNECTIVITY N published data available fr crew cnnectivity. Effective apprach with a cntrl parameter g. Fractin f ja f cnnecting passenger within same airline t detect and assess hub imprtance (except pint-t-pint airlines). Airprt j is a hub fr airline a if f ja is higher than a fixed threshld. Prbability f crew cnnectin given by c ja = g f ja Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

10 ATFM SLOT MANAGEMENT Simplifying assumptins: Regulatins nly in airprts, nt airspaces; En-rute delay recvery nt cnsidered; Flight re-ruting nt cnsidered. Hurly mvements limited by airprt capacity. A flight which has lst its slts due t a delay must negtiate new nes Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

11 ATFM SLOT MANAGEMENT New slts assigned as sn as pssible as lng as demand des nt exceed capacity. Otherwise, excess demand is dealt with by assigning new slts n a first-planned-first-served basis. Flights that accumulate t much delay (cnfigurable by a parameter) are cancelled. In case f severe cngestin, airlines can try slt swapping as a last resrt t avid cancellatin Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

12 ATFM SLOT MANAGEMENT Slt reallcatin Slt swapping Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

13 PRELIMINARY RESULTS A single day f traffic data btained frm CODA is reprduced. Metrics are in gd agreement with empirical data fr the same values f the input parameters. Data frm flightradar24.cm have been cllected fr fur mnths and are currently in the prcess f data cleaning and analysis Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

14 CLUSTER OF CONGESTED AIRPORTS Cngested airprt: average departure delay bigger than 26.7 min (2013 ECAC average). Airprts cnnected by direct flight rutes. Cngested cluster: set f cnnected cngested airprts. Largest cluster (size = 4) Cluster size as a measure f system-wide disruptin. Secndary cluster (size = 2) Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

15 CLUSTER OF CONGESTED AIRPORTS Airprts in the largest cluster ( ) between 12:00 and 13:00, empirical data Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

16 CLUSTER OF CONGESTED AIRPORTS Fllw the evlutin f the cluster hur by hur. Qualitative features f the empirical curve crrectly reprduced. Fit the peak f the empirical curve Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

17 DELAY DISTRIBUTION The parameters btained by fitting the height f the peak in the cluster s evlutin allw us t btain delay distributin and ttal cumulative delay in agreement with empirical data Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

18 NEXT STEPS Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights

19 Thank yu fr yur attentin! Questins and suggestins are welcme! ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This wrk is c-financed by EUROCONTROL acting n behalf f the SESAR Jint Undertaking (the SJU) and the EUROPEAN UNION as part f Wrk Package E in the SESAR Prgramme. Opinins expressed in this wrk reflect the authrs' views nly and EUROCONTROL and/r the SJU shall nt be cnsidered liable fr them r fr any use that may be made f the infrmatin cntained herein. Brun Campanelli acknwledges funding frm the Cnselleria d'educació, Cultura i Universitats f the Gvernment f the Balearic Islands and the Eurpean Scial Fund Mdelling Delay Prpagatin Trees fr Scheduled Flights