Asia-Pacific Aviation: Growth and Challenges

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1 Asia-Pacific Aviation: Growth and Challenges A presentation to the ACI-NA International Aviation Issues Seminar Steve Martin Page 1

2 Page 2

3 Defining the Asia Pacific We ll call it GMT +5 GMT +12, minus A/NZ and the stans. Page 3

4 Asia Pacific Aviation Overview $166 billion revenue $7 billion net profit 1,200 million passengers million domestic million international 20 million tons of cargo 7,058 aircraft Asia Pacific carriers overall market share: -- 32% of global passenger traffic -- 40% of global cargo traffic Page 4 Source: Financial Reports, 2015, Combined AAPA + non-aapa airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12

5 Of the World s Largest Markets Domestic International / Regional Rank Route Pax (million) Rank Route Pax (million) 1 Seoul Jeju Hong Kong Taipei Tokyo Sapporo Jakarta Singapore Tokyo Fukuoka Bangkok Hong Kong Melbourne Sydney New York London Beijing Shanghai Kuala Lumpur Singapore Los Angeles San Francisco Hong Kong Singapore Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City Hong Kong Shanghai Delhi Mumbai Hong Kong Seoul New York So. Florida Bangkok Singapore Jakarta Surabaya Taipei Tokyo 2.2 almost all are Asian Source: IATA WATS 2016, US DOT T-100 (YE Aug 2016) Page 5

6 Major Carriers SkyTeam Star Oneworld Unaffiliated: Page 6

7 Page 7

8 What Drives the Market for Air Travel? (1) Policy Changes Open Skies / Liberalization Relaxing Visa Requirements 2014: reciprocal extension of B1/B2 visa for US-China to 10 years Introducing Visa Waiver Brunei (1993), Japan (1988), Rep. of Korea (2008), Singapore (1999), Taiwan (2012) Page 8

9 What Drives the Demand for Air Travel? (2) Economic Growth Asian GDP Growth: Multiples of North America Source: World Bank Global financial crisis South Asia East Asia and Pacific North America Population: About 4.1 billion Asia Pacific GDP (2015): $41 trillion US GDP (2015): $18 trillion Asia Pacific 2016 GDP growth considered a down period still 2x North America Page 9

10 Future Economic Growth Will Drive Further Increases in Traffic Estimated GDP & Traffic Growth Asia North America Europe Middle East Latin America GDP growth rate Traffic growth rate The only region that closely compares with Asia in GDP and traffic growth is the Middle East. The key difference is the population! Billions vs. Millions Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016, World Bank Page 10

11 What Drives the Demand for Air Travel? (3) A Growing Middle Class In Asia, the middle class is HUGE and growing rapidly Millions 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, North America Europe & CIS Other Asia-Pacific Middle class = $20k - $150k (PPP) in 2014 prices Demographic factors also important. In Vietnam, for example, over 40% of the population is 25 or younger. Young people are traveling. Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2016 Page 11

12 In Terms of the Fleet: Asia Pacific Aviation 2015 Share of the world fleet ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Fleet in Asia North America Europe Middle East Latin America C.I.S. Africa 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Asia North America Europe Middle East Latin America C.I.S. Africa Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016 Page 12

13 In Terms of the Fleet: Asia Pacific Forecast to ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Fleet in 2015 Fleet in Share of the world fleet Asia 8 North America 38 Europe Middle East Latin America C.I.S. Africa 22 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Asia North America Europe Middle East Latin America C.I.S. Africa Page 13 Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016

14 Where Will Those Aircraft Operate? RPKs in billions 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Asia Pacific Pax Traffic 2015 vs by Region of Travel Mostly within Asia But increasingly outside the region: 1,000 0 Middle East Europe North America Asia Pacific Africa and Latin America too small to show Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016 % increase in RPKs to Europe = 150% % increase in RPKs to North America = 142% Page 14

15 Low Cost Carriers are Transforming Asian Aviation The Asia-Pacific LCC Fleet Doubled Since Widebody Narrowbody If orders are delivered, the fleet will double again On Order A subset of the LCCs: Lion Air AirAsia and AirAsiaX Indigo Jet Airways SpiceJet JetStar Malindo Air VietJet Scoot TigerAir Cebu Pacific Nok Air Jeju Air LCC Value Alliance member Page 15

16 LCC Market Penetration LCCs now operate ~ 60% of capacity in SE Asia In the ASEAN, between : Markets served by full service carriers unchanged. Markets served by LCCs by 50%. Source: CAPA In NE Asia, LCC market share < 10%. LCC penetration and capacity adding to challenging yield environment Page 16 Lots of that service is international. Will LCCs consider the trans- Pacific?

17 Major Trans-Pacific Markets North America to: East Asia Mainland China/PRC + Hong Kong Japan Korea Taiwan Southeast Asia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Singapore Indonesia Malaysia South Asia India Page 17

18 Growth in the Trans-Pacific Passenger Traffic Global financial crisis JAL Restructures Japan China India South Korea Philippines Traffic in four markets has more than doubled since 2003: China (4x) India Korea 1.00 Hong Kong and Vietnam 0.00 Source: Sabre O&D data Data for 2016 are YE 2016:2 Page 18

19 Growth in the Trans-Pacific Departures and Airport-Pairs Scheduled Departures 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Canada to Asia US to Asia Scheduled Airport Seats Pairs US v. Chinese Carriers (2d Quarter) Canada - Asia US - Asia China Service Alone Canada China 3 13 US China 9 38 Page 19

20 Forecasted Growth in the Trans-Pacific Projected average annual traffic growth rate from North America to two regions highly robust: China = 6.7% Southeast Asia = 6.6% Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016 Northeast Asia = 1.8% Page 20

21 Asia-Pacific Aviation Facing Infrastructure Challenges Chronic congestion and delays already evident in some areas Runways near capacity at many airports: PEK, HKG, MNL, SIN Terminals near capacity: PEK, MNL, ICN, BKK Other key supporting infrastructure lagging, including surface transportation and tourism sector (hotel space) Airlines in the Asia-Pacific are encouraging their national governments to take on greater responsibility for coordination, planning, and making needed long-term investments. Industry and government need to work together on these issues. Page 21

22 Page 22

23 QUESTIONS, COMMENTS? THANK YOU! Page 23

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