current market outlook

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1 current market outlook Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes June 2011 The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing. BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Copyright 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.

2 Agenda Current Market Outlook (CMO) 20-year traffic and airplane forecast Boeing product strategy and development

3 Five decades of Current Market Outlook

4 Agenda Current Market Outlook (CMO) 20-year traffic and airplane forecast Boeing product strategy and development

5 Market forecast drivers and considerations Fuel price Economic growth Market liberalization Environment Traffic forecast Network development Airplane capabilities Annual growth, WORLD 4.9 Northeast Asia Europe North America 3.2 Oceania 5.1 Central America 5.6 South America 7.0 Middle East 6.6 CIS 5.1 Southeast Asia 6.6 Africa 5.8 Southwest Asia China Emerging markets Percentage Infrastructure High speed rail Airline strategies & business models

6 Drivers of air travel Economic growth Global trade Traveler values 60-80% Travel demand 20-40% Additional travel demand

7 World air travel has grown 5% per year since RPKs (trillions) F 4 recessions 2 financial crises 2 Gulf wars 1 oil shock 1 near pandemic (SARS) 9/11 RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers Sources: ICAO Scheduled Traffic

8 20-year forecast: strong long-term growth 2010 to 2030 World economy (GDP) Number of airline passengers Airline traffic (RPK) Cargo traffic (RTK) 3.3% 4.2% 5.1% 5.6%

9 Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops 2.5 Index 1990=1.00 World Air Travel Growth 2.0 Frequency Growth Nonstop Markets Average Airplane Size August OAG All routes

10 Airlines will need 33,500 new airplanes valued at $4.0 trillion Airplane deliveries: 33, ,000 Market value: $4.0T ,500 Airplane units 20,000 2,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Market value, $ billions 1,500 1, ,980 regional jets 6% 23,370 single-aisle 70% 7,330 twin-aisle 22% 820 large 2% 0 $70B regional jets 2% $1,950B single-aisle 48% $1,770B twin-aisle 43% $270B large 7%

11 Older, less efficient airplanes will be replaced with more efficient, newer generation airplanes Units 40,000 39,530 30,000 20,000 19,410 10,000 20,120 Growth 60% 13,380 Replacement 40% 33, ,030 Retained fleet 2030

12 Aircraft will continue to be long-lived assets Age at Leaving Service (5-year moving average) 30 History CMO Forecast 25 Single-aisle pax Twin-aisle pax 20 Regional Jet Source: Ascend as of 5/10/2011, CMO 2011 Western commercial jets permanently removed from services

13 Fleet composition is changing % 13% 15% 10,850 airplanes 19% % 15% 19,410 airplanes 22% % 5% 39,530 airplanes 65% 62% 70% Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jet Data Source: Ascend & Boeing CMO

14 New, more capable airplanes help drive growth 1,000,000 Frequencies for all flights over 3,000 miles 900, , , , , , , , ,000 Average Annual Growth: 4.8% Other A340 A A380 Data source: August OAG

15 Emerging markets are driving the economic growth Annual GDP growth South Asia China Asia Pacific Africa Southeast Asia Latin America Middle East CIS World Oceania North America Europe Northeast Asia Source: IHS Global Insight

16 Air travel growth varies by market Asia Pacific* 2010 traffic Added traffic Annual growth% 7.0% Within North America 2.3% Within Europe 4.0% Within China 7.5% Europe Asia Pacific 5.9% North Atlantic 3.6% Middle East Asia Pacific Transpacific Within Latin America North America Latin America 7.2% 4.9% 6.7% 5.4% World Average Growth: 5.1% Europe Latin America 4.8% Within / to CIS 4.2% Africa Europe 4.6% *includes within China ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 RPKs, billions

17 The landscape of aviation continues to change Air traffic, RPKs (billions) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Other Middle East China Asia Pacific (excl. China) 4,000 Europe 2, % % 2030 North America 41%

18 Market for new airplanes set to become considerably more geographically balanced New airplane deliveries by region Market value by region Region Airplanes Asia Pacific 11,450 Europe 7,550 North America 7,530 Latin America 2,570 Middle East 2,520 C.I.S. 1,080 Africa 800 World Total 33,500 Region $B 3% 3% 2% Asia Pacific 1,510 2% 8% 11% Europe 880 8% 34% North America 760 6% 33,500 Latin America 250 $4.0T 22% Middle East % C.I.S % Africa % World Total $4,060B 37%

19 World air cargo traffic has grown 5.7% per year since RTKs (billions) * Revenue tonne-kilometers

20 Future freighter deliveries will be led by demand for large widebodies New freighter deliveries: Airplane units 71% 29% Market value: $250 billion Market value % 20% Large More than 80 tonnes 280 Medium 40 to 80 tonnes 0 Standard Less than 45 tonnes 0 $200B Large More than 80 tonnes $50B Medium 40 to 80 tonnes $0B Standard Less than 45 tonnes

21 New freighter demand new and 1,990 converted Share of fleet Delivery units Size category Large More than 80 tonnes Medium 40 to 80 tonnes Standard Less than 45 tonnes , , Freighters 1, Freighters 3, to 2030 Freighters

22 The Europe region Europe

23 European airlines business model shifts ASKs % % % 16% 22% 59% 14% 15% 56% 18% 15% 54% LCC Charter/IT Broad Network Other Networks Source: Boeing CMOs

24 Europe air traffic growth varies by market Within Europe 2010 traffic Added traffic Annual growth % 4.0% To / from North America 3.6% To / from Middle East 5.4% To / from China 7.4% To / from Africa To / from Southeast Asia To / from South America To / from South Asia 4.6% 5.2% 5.1% 6.8% Europe Average Growth: 4.3% Region s Average GDP Growth: 2.0% To / from Central America 4.4% To / from Northeast Asia 3.4% ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 RPKs, billions

25 European airlines will need 7,550 new airplanes valued at $880 billion 38% Airplane deliveries: 7, to ,000 Market value: $880 billion 2011 to Airplane units 4,800 3,600 2,400 1,200 Market value, $ billions Regional jets 4% 5,660 Single-aisle 75% 1,400 Twin-aisle 19% 180 Large 2% Regional jets 1% 480 Single-aisle 55% 330 Twin-aisle 37% 60 Large 7%

26 A large demand for replacing older, lessefficient aircraft in Europe Units 9,000 8,000 8,010 7,000 6,000 3,630 Growth 48% 5,000 4,380 4,000 7,550 3,000 2,000 3,920 Replacement 52% 1, Retained fleet

27 European airlines environmental strategy means more new airplanes 100% Share of fleet 94% New airplanes 75% 50% Better for: Environment Passengers Airlines 25% 0% 2030 Airplane fleet 8,010 6% Remaining airplanes

28 European air travel market Strong 2010 traffic despite volcanoes and weather AEA members traffic up 2.7% ELFAA members traffic up 6.1% Travel and tourism Provide 7.7% of total employment; expected to grow to 8.1% by 2021 Contribute $1,535B to GDP or 7.7%; will be 7.8% of GDP in 2021

29 Boeing product forecast in-line with the realities of the market 100% Large 5% Large 3% Twin-aisle 21% Twin-aisle 20% 75% Size category Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jet 50% Single-aisle 55% Single-aisle 63% 25% 0% Regional Jet 19% Boeing forecast ,315 units Regional Jet 14% Airplane demand 2000 Present* 19,320 units *Deliveries 2000 thru May 2011 plus backlog

30 Agenda Current Market Outlook (CMO) 20-year traffic and airplane forecast Boeing product strategy and development

31 Providing more value to our customers in all markets Environmentally progressive Operational commonality Long-range, fast, reliable Passenger experience Low operating cost Lifecycle solutions Standardization

32 Substantial, balanced backlog validates Boeing s product strategy Backlog ($B) Model Large 7% Single- Aisle 34% Twin- Aisle 59% 787 Region ME, Central & S. Asia Leasing, Gov't & BBJ North America L. America & Africa Asia Pacific Q 2011 Europe & Russia China, East & SE Asia

33 2011 CMO by the numbers The average percentage rate at which global passenger traffic will grow per year over the next 20 years (RPKs) The number of new airplanes to be delivered to the airlines of the world between now and 2030 The value in trillions of US dollars of those 33,500 new airplanes to be delivered The average percentage rate at which South Asia s GDP will grow per year over the next 20 years unseating China at number 1 The percentage of our 2011 forecast already in backlog The number of downloads made from the CMO web site over the past 12 months

34 Things to remember Five decades of Current Market Outlook Aviation industry resilient; long-term market outlook is strong Boeing s market-driving products and services provide more value to our customers in all markets

35 For more information, please visit our CMO website: You can also visit my blog, Randy s Journal: BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Copyright 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.

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