The Need and Urgency for a Three-Runway System (3RS) August 7, 2014

Transcription

1 The Need and Urgency for a Three-Runway System (3RS) August 7,

2 Need for 3RS? 2

3 Recent criticism HKIA is being managed inefficiently AA allows the proliferation of narrow-bodied aircraft and small regional jets (business jets) Hong Kong should give up services to 3 rd /4 th - tier cities 3

4 HKIA is the most efficient airport in the world Rank Airport WLU/ ATM 1 Hong Kong (HKG) Tokyo (NRT) Incheon (ICN) Taipei (TPE) Dubai (DXB) Singapore (SIN) Bangkok (BKK) Shanghai (PVG) Tokyo (HND) Osaka (KIX) Krasnodar (KRR)* London (LHR) Note: 1 WLU (workload unit) = 1 passenger or 100kg of cargo *This airport has no cargo throughput Source: ACI annual report 2012, covering >1500 airports in the world 4

5 Among the top 100 airports, HKIA has the highest number of passengers per pax ATM Rank Airport Pax/ Pax ATM 1 Hong Kong (HKG) Dubai (DXB) Tokyo (NRT) Taipei (TPE) Incheon (ICN) : : : 7 Singapore (SIN) London (LHR) : : : 21 Paris (CDG) Frankfurt (FRA) Amsterdam (AMS) : : : 47 San Francisco CA (SFO) Chicago IL (ORD) 79.3 Source: ACI annual report 2012 Top 100 passenger throughput airports 5

6 HKIA is the #1 cargo hub in the world since 2010 Rank Airport Total Cargo (Tonnes) 1 Hong Kong (HKG) 4,066,738 2 Memphis TN (MEM) 4,015,997 3 Shanghai (PVG) 2,938,157 4 Anchorage AK (ANC) 2,463,696 5 Incheon (ICN) 2,456,724 6 Dubai (DXB) 2,279,624 7 Louisville KY (SDF) 2,168,365 8 Paris (CDG) 2,150,950 9 Frankfurt (FRA) 2,066, Tokyo (NRT) 2,006, Miami FL (MIA) 1,929, Singapore (SIN) 1,841,858 Note: Include airmail Source: ACI annual report 2012, covering >1500 airports in the world 6

7 Among the top 100 airports, HKIA has the 2 nd highest proportion of wide-bodied aircraft Rank Airport % Wide-bodied % Narrow-bodied 1 Tokyo (NRT) 64.6% 35.4% 2 Hong Kong (HKG) 63.3% 36.7% 3 Dubai (DXB) 61.6% 38.4% 4 Taipei (TPE) 61.2% 38.8% 5 Incheon (ICN) 53.6% 46.4% : : : : 9 Singapore (SIN) 42.2% 57.8% 11 London (LHR) 37.6% 62.4% : : : : 21 Paris (CDG) 24.2% 75.8% 23 Frankfurt (FRA) 23.2% 76.8% 29 San Francisco CA (SFO) 18.9% 81.1% 30 Amsterdam (AMS) 18.7% 81.3% : : : : 65 Chicago IL (ORD) 7.6% 92.4% Source: ACI annual report 2012 Top 100 passenger throughput airports; OAG 2014 Q1-Q2 7

8 The invisible hand of the market ensures the most efficient use of every slot Air Services Agreements: progressive liberalisation The commercial decisions of airlines will ensure the best use of each slot They know where the market is, High operation cost and low profit margins, Consolidation reflects the business trend, NOT the contrary 8

9 Hong Kong should not give up 3 rd /4 th -tier cities Connectivity is the key to Hong Kong s competitiveness They meet genuine needs of the travelling public Wide ramification on Hong Kong s status as international trade and financial centre Dramatic impact on Hong Kong s role as a hub both for the travelling public and cargo/ logistics industry (~40% of HKIA cargo carried in passenger aircraft belly) 9

10 Business jets will NOT affect HKIA s capacity Business jets are NOT allowed to apply scheduled slots Commercial airlines have absolute priority over business jets Allow business jets to use residual or unused slot is in fact the MOST EFFICIENT way of managing the airport Business jets currently take up an insignificant 2% of HKIA s total air traffic movements 10

11 Conclusion: Need for 3RS unquestionable Global Trend AA s Traffic Forecast 11

12 Global air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks Source: ICAO, Airbus 12

13 In the long term, Boeing expects global air traffic to continue expanding at a rate of 5% RPKs (billion) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Actual CAGR : 4.8% Forecast CAGR : 5.0% 15,538 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 4,254 5, Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook

14 Airports worldwide are undertaking expansion projects to cope with the growing demand Chicago O Hare 8 th Runway (2014) London Heathrow Terminal 2 (2014) Frankfurt 4 th Runway (2015) Beijing (Daxing) New airport (2018) Seoul Incheon Terminal 2 (2017) Osaka Kansai Terminal 3 (2016) Dallas/ Fort Worth Terminal expansions (2017) Istanbul New airport (2019) Doha New airport (2014) Abu Dhabi New terminal (2017) According to ACI, there are currently ~200 planned airport expansions around the world (with each investing >US$500 million) Guangzhou 3 rd Runway (2014) Terminal 2 (2018) Dubai New airport (2014) Kuala Lumpur Terminal 2 (2014) New airport construction Existing airport construction Singapore Terminal 4 (2017) 3 rd Runway (2020) Terminal 5 ( ) Shanghai Pudong 4 th Runway (2014) 5 th Runway (2017) New satellite concourse (2018) Taipei Taoyuan 3 rd Runway (2020) Terminal 3 (2021) Brisbane 2 nd Runway (2020) Sydney New airport (2025) Note: Only key expansion projects are indicated Source: CAPA (as of Jul 2014); ACI (as of Nov 2013) 14

15 By the end of 2033, Boeing expects global fleet size to more than double, reaching >42,000 # of aircraft Passenger and freighter fleet development ,770 42,180 20,910 16,830 1,330 Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook

16 Conclusion: Need for 3RS unquestionable Global Trend AA s Traffic Forecast 16

17 MP2030 Forecast ATM to Reach Two-Runway Capacity between 2019 and 2022 ATMs/ Year CAGR % Capacity of Two Runways (420,000 ATM) Source: IATA estimates 17

18 Conclusion: Need for 3RS unquestionable ATM ( 000) Actual HKIA air traffic volume in 2013 is around 3 years ahead of MP2030 forecast Capacity of Two Runways = 420,000 ATMs/ year 2013 throughput 372,000 MP2030 forecast 376,000 (base case) Source: IATA Consulting estimates; AAHK for actual statistics 18

19 Thank you 19 19