Airbus Foundations of Leadership

Transcription

1 Airbus Foundations of Leadership John Leahy CCO of Airbus North America Investor Forum 2004 New York December 3rd, Airbus today 12 models 5,093 aircraft sold to 197 customers 3,722 delivered deliveries to end November Data to end November

2 2004 order share and value Units Revenues Airbus 218 aircraft 51% Boeing 207 aircraft 49% Airbus $17.7B 47% Boeing $19.8B 53% 425 firm orders $37.5 billion Data to end November orders by size category seater 304 orders A320 Family 179 a/c 59% a/c 41% A300 A310 A a/c 9% 767 7E7 61 a/c 91% seater 67 orders seater 44 orders A A a/c 75% a/c 25% 0 A380 0% % 375+ seater 10 orders Data to end November

3 Order evolution - gross % share of gross unit orders: 1995 end November Boeing 82% Airbus 51% Boeing 49% 20 Airbus 18% Deliveries to end October Airbus 305 aircraft 52% Boeing 281 aircraft 48% Airbus 261 aircraft 52% Boeing 238 aircraft 48% 586 aircraft delivered 499 aircraft delivered 6

4 Delivery trend 32% Airbus delivery share 52% Airbus Boeing E world traffic to grow at 11.4% vs 2003 % year over year change - RPK 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% E Source: ICAO, Airbus forecast 8

5 World air transport operating result (EBIT) Billions US$ average fuel price $30 / barrel $40 / barrel E* An average of $40 / Barrel will reduce EBIT from ~ $3.5B to ~ $1B Source: IATA, Airbus estimates for Only a small part of the current parked fleet is likely to return to active service Source : Airclaims End Oct 2004 Number of western built passenger jets parked at year end by generation YtD Only 250 to 300 currently parked aircraft will return to service Old Mid New 10

6 No oversupply of aircraft SG NG MD-80/90 Airbus Boeing End September A closer look at parked A320 Family Available (no current placement) Known placement Temporarily parked by operator Of 26 A320 Family parked 8 temporarily parked 15 have known placements 3 no current placement (0.1% fleet) Availability far lower than perceived 3 8 Parked fleet is very dynamic - not same aircraft month-to-month A319 A320 A321 End September

7 A320 Family lease rates have made a strong recovery 100% 90% Negative impacts on lease rates: General market conditions post 9/11 6 major bankruptcies - SAB, CMM, AAA, SWR, AES & AEF A320 Family released 80% 70% 60% 50% Chapter 11 filings USA, UAL, ACA 550+ A320 Family involved with potential for many rejections Drivers of a strong recovery Planned production increase not implemented & strict no white tail policy Proactive role of Airbus with lessors and other owners to place aircraft Rapid expansion of operator base Improvement of general market conditions, especially outside North 13 America Leasing markets and aircraft availability 14

8 Leasing companies backlog (end October 2004) Airline Backlog: 987aircraft 70.5% Leasing Backlog: 412 aircraft 29.5% 1399 aircraft 15 Lessor placement rates 8 open slots 100% 80% 60% 40% Unplaced Placed 20% 0%

9 Leasing placement trend Number of aircraft Last 12 months: 171 a/c aircraft placed in the last 12 months proves clear recovery of the market 17 18

10 A321 & A : a new wave in the mid-market Deliveries share 100% 80% Early 1990s 757 & 767 captured 80% of the market sector 757 New Wave A321 & A capture >80% and rising 60% 40% 767 A % 0% A300/A310 A Economic realities Typical cash operating cost breakdown Landing & nav. fees (21%) Flight crew (27%) Fuel (30%) Maintenance (22%) Cost of Ownership (40%) Cash Operating Cost (60%) Total Operating Cost 20

11 Similar operating costs per seat 217 seats 245 seats 7E7-8 vs. A as datum Delta % As % of COC per seat As % of Total Operating Cost per seat Fuel Maintenance Landing & nav Flight crew Total +3.0% +1.4% 21 Subject to launch 22

12 250 & 300 seat 20-year demand 250 seats: 1800 aircraft ER - 7E7-8 - A A seats: 1300 aircraft ER/LR - 7E7-9 - A A A A year market is 3100 aircraft 23 A350 highlights All new cabin New high bypass engines Passive and active load alleviation New HTP Wing drag improvements Rear fuselage Al-Li or CFRP CFRP outer wing box Optimised fuselage design (Al-Li) Full titanium pylon Centre wing box in CFRP 24

13 A competitive highlights A E7-8 Seats (3-class) Full passenger load range (nm) 8600nm 8500nm Block fuel / seat Cash cost / seat MWE per seat Noise classification London arrival departure Datum +2.5% Datum +7% Datum +3% QC 0.5 QC 0.5 QC1 QC1 25 A competitive highlights A E ER Seats (3-class) Full passenger load range (nm) Block fuel / seat Cash cost / seat MWE per seat Noise classification London arrival departure nm 8100nm 7700nm Datum equal +20% Datum +3% +6% Datum same +10% QC 0.5 QC 0.5 QC 1 QC1 QC 1 QC 2 26

14 27 A380 an all new, state-of-the-art design 560t 555 seats 8000 nm EIS t 150 t 5620 nm EIS

15 Strong market confidence 41 A380 & 2 A380F 10 A380 5 A380 & 5 A380F 10 A380 6 A A A380F 2 A A380 6 A380 5 A380 4 A380 6 A380 now 139 firm orders & commitments commitments in the last 14 months December 2003 Qatar Airways 2 A380s October 2003 Korean Air 5 A380s August 2004 August 2004 Thai (MOU) 6 A380s December 2003 Malaysia Airlines 6 A380s July 2004 Etihad (MOU) 30 4 A380s

16 Top 20 airlines by RPK 1 st Half 2004 net profit margin in % 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% A380 A380 A380 A380 A380 A380 A % -10.0% Cathay Pacific Emirates Singapore Qantas Thai British Airways Southwest Korean Lufthansa AMR Iberia Air France ANA US Air Continental United Air Canada Northwest JALS Delta 1Q2004 for JALS, Air France includes KLM 31 Superior range and economics A Seats Max TOW (tonnes) Max range (nm) COC per seat Datum -17% COC per m 2 of cabin Datum -26% 32

17 More volume, more seats, more comfort Relative net usable* floor area +50% More comfort per seat 35% more seats Datum -400 A380 * gross area less cut-outs for stairs/lifts and minimum regulatory aisles / assist space 33 A380 walk through A new life in the air new version with 16m

18 The GREEN GIANT for our planet The first long-haul aircraft with less than 3 litres per pax/100km fuel consumption* 35 * 5000 nm sector, Typical International Flight Profile, 555 pax 35% more pax & half the noise London departure -400X QC8 910 klb MTOW klb MTOW QC4 QC2 A MTOW (t) A380 - the low noise answer for growth 36

19 Growth by both fragmentation and consolidation FRAGMENTATION Hub by-passing Market development Frequency on thin routes The business traveller s preference CONSOLIDATION More cost-effective Hub dominance Global network Linking major hubs The logic behind alliances The real world: fragmentation and consolidation 37 Large aircraft operations are concentrated 80% of all movements are concentrated into just 37 airports ANC HNL SFO LAX ORD JFK MIA AMS LHR FRA CDG LUX JED RUH DXB DEL BOM CTS PEK ICN NRT HND KIX PVG ITM FUK HKG OKA TPE BKK MNL KUL SIN JNB MEL SYD AKL All of these airports, and many more, are either ready, prepared or planning for A380 operations 38

20 Europe-Asia scheduling constraints LHR-HKG November CX BA BA CX VS CX BA HKG-LHR November BA VS BA CX CX QF LON HKG Airport curfews & passenger convenience mean all flights are constrained to very limited time windows 39 Origin-destination traffic between U.S. and China Origin/destination passengers to mainland China Guangzhou Beijing Shanghai Washington Boston Chicago Honolulu San Francisco Los Angeles New York Mainland China Final destination cities 90% to 3 cities USA First origin cities 70% from 3 cities Source: MIDT

21 Meeting passenger expectations Airline criteria of choice on US int l flights What is your main reason for flying on this airline? % of respondents 40% 33% 30% 20% 17% 14% 11% 10% 7% 5% 4% 4% 3% 1% 1% 0% r e s le ht nc flie du flig rie he nt e c e p p s u o ex nt St eq d nfr nie oo No ve g n us Co io ev Pr ic Pr Source: e US Commerce Department Survey (ITA ), 2004 O er th t fe Sa io at ut ep r y n l ya Lo ty to er r ri ca n y e lic tio vic ta po er pu ts er e h y r o ig e pl -fl tim In Em no 41 A380 routes

22 As one era ends A A380 Launch F another one begins Data to end September Introduction of at New York 15 months BOAC JAL 707 DC8 Air France 707 Lufthansa 707 TWA Pan Am Mar. 70 Jun. 70 Sep. 70 Mar. 71 Jun. 71 Competition & product preference forced all airlines to rapidly introduce the at New York Source: ICAO 44

23 Introduction of at Tokyo 6 months Air France JAL 707 DC8 Lufthansa Pan Am Northwest Dec. 71 Mar. 72 Jun. 72 Sep. 72 Dec. 72 Source: ICAO Competition & product preference forced all airlines to rapidly introduce the at Tokyo 45 Introduction of at London 18 months JAL 707 BOAC 707 TWA Pan Am Mar.70 Jun. 70 Mar. 71 Jun. 71 Sep. 71 Source: ICAO Competition & product preference forced all airlines to rapidly introduce the at London 46

24 Introduction of at Hong Kong 9 months Air France 707 BOAC 707 Lufthansa 707 Pan Am 707 Northwest Sep. 71 Dec. 71 Mar. 72 Jun. 72 Sep. 72 Competition & product preference forced all airlines to rapidly introduce the at Hong Kong Source: ICAO 47 48

25 Safe Harbor Statement Certain of the statements contained in this document are not historical facts but rather are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management s beliefs. These statements reflect the Company s views and assumptions as of the date of the statements and involve known and unknown risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. When used in this document, words such as anticipate, believe, estimate, expect, may, intend, plan to and project are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, projections for improvements in process and operations, new business opportunities, revenues and revenues growth, operating margin growth, cash flow, deliveries, launches, compliance with delivery schedules, performance against Company targets, new products, current and future markets for the Company products and other trend projections. This forward looking information is based upon a number of assumptions including without limitation: Assumption regarding demand Current and future markets for the Company s products and services Internal performance including the ability to successfully integrate EADS activities to control costs and maintain quality Customer financing Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations Favourable outcomes of certain pending sales campaigns Forward looking statements are subject to uncertainty and actual future results and trends may differ materially depending on variety of factors including without limitation: General economic and labour conditions, including in particular economic conditions in Europe and North America, Legal, financial and governmental risk related to international transactions The Cyclical nature of some of the Company s businesses Volatility of the market for certain products and services Product performance risks Collective bargaining labour disputes Factors that result in significant and prolonged disruption to air travel world-wide The outcome of political and legal processes, including uncertainty regarding government funding of certain programs Consolidation among competitors in the aerospace industry The cost of developing, and the commercial success of new products Exchange rate and interest rate spread fluctuations between the Euro and the U.S. dollar and other currencies Legal proceeding and other economic, political and technological risk and uncertainties Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the Company s document de référence dated 1st April The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Consequently the Company is not responsible for any consequencies from using any of the above statements. 49