SAS Q3 2015/2016. Q3 development largely in accordance with our expectations. Q3 update. Change vs. LY

Transcription

1 SAS Q3 2015/ Q3 development largely in accordance with our expectations Q3 update Most of Q3 developed as expected FX adjusted revenues up by MSEK ,000 more passengers in Q3 vs. LY 120,000 more EuroBonus members Jet fuel costs down SEK 0.6bn Cost program on track to deliver SEK 0.7bn in FY16 with exception for Pilot strike in June affected result by MSEK -140 Negative currency effects of SEK 0.4bn Q3 MSEK 1,036 9,913 EBT Traffic, RPK in millions Unit cost, SEK PASK, SEK Change vs. LY MSEK % -8.1% -3.5% 2 1

2 SAS strengthened leisure offer during the summer was well received Network adjustments Increased leisure production during the summer Capacity up 7% in July vs. LY ~60 seasonal routes operated Wet lease enables re-alocation of larger aircraft to leisure routes Product news/updates SAS Plus Saver SAS Go Light Number of passengers vs. LY +8% Jul 2015 Jul 2016 Number of SAS Plus passengers vs. LY +28% Jul 2015 Jul 2016 Revenue on leisure routes in Q3 vs. LY, currency adjusted +9% +18% +19% +16% Non EB members EB Basic EB Silver EB Gold/Diamond 3 Strong response on long-haul expansion Fleet expanded from 12 to 16 aircraft Low capital investment New destinations and more frequencies Boston, Hong Kong and Los Angeles Frequencies increased to New York and Shanghai All SAS long-haul aircraft now upgraded with new cabin interior Number of passengers vs. LY +27% Q3 15 Q3 16 Customer satisfaction Business Class Index Oct 16 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul

3 Cost reduction program on track to deliver SEK 700m in FY16 objective to lower the cost base and to increase flexibility Selected implemented examples Flight operations Ground handling Technical maintenance Commercial Increased wet lease operation enabling lower trip cost Improved utilization on long-haul routes following simplified agreement in 2015 Outsourced line stations in Norway to Widerøe New agreements allow for more flexible processes at main hubs New IT system enables more efficient tech maintenance planning Closure of base maintenance at OSL/ARN Sales organization transformation Agent commission review Expected earnings impact, MSEK FY FY FY18 Capacity, ASK in millions 12,585 Q3 15 9% 13,707 Q3 16 Payroll expenses, MSEK 2,386 Q3 15-5% 2,275 Q3 16 Planned Delivered 5 Moving forward, SAS s innovation focus is directed towards two key areas DIGITALIZATION 2-TIER STRATEGY WET LEASE 3

4 SAS is developing digital touch points with customers throughout the travel chain Pre-travel Pre-flight In-flight Post-flight and travel New website Product innovations ipads for cabin crew and Wifi onboard Digitalization on ground 7 Pre-travel Pre-flight In-flight Post-flight and travel DIGITAL PLATFORM Seamless experience and communication New customer interface Open architecture with possibility to add new functionalities 4

5 Pre-travel Pre-flight In-flight Post-flight and travel NEW DEVICES Electronic bag tags and wearables new and innovative way of challenging current pain points Pre-travel Pre-flight In-flight Post-flight and travel State-of-the-art Wifi High speed Wifi service suitable for both work and entertainment onboard Empowers passengers and crew to act and interact instant updates both ways Cabin crew device A mobile workplace developed with focus on customer experience and an efficient workplace 5

6 Pre-travel Pre-flight In-flight Post-flight and travel GROUND HANDLING DIGITALIZATION (Internet-of-things) Web access Used on Tablets Provides timestamps RFID tagged equipment SAS is breaking new ground in the establishment of an external wet lease market in Europe Why does SAS use wet lease? SAS breaking new ground in Europe Scandinavian market is fragmented large share of frequent travelers fly on many thin routes Large aircraft good for large routes thin routes require small aircraft for profitable operations Fleet size, % aircraft 78% 7% 15% Top-3 Europe 81% 14% 5% SAS has established strategic relations with 4 external partners Top-3 US 61% 11% 28% Mainline fleet External suppliers In-house suppliers Source: Companies annual reports and websites 6

7 Wet lease supports SAS in creating an efficient operating platform Thin flows & more frequencies 1 Important customers Compe- Improved titive result product More routes in our portfolio >1.1 million Of our passengers flew with wet lease aircraft in Q3 70% of fleet brand new ordered specially for SAS SEK +0.5bn Improved profits for SAS from using wetlease Up to 50% more frequencies vs. large jet on selected routes Same share of travel class and transfer passengers as rest of network Committed suppliers SEK 5bn Aircraft value without SAS financing saved CAPEX FINANCIALS 7

8 Breakdown of the income statement Income statement May-Jul 16 May-Jul 15 Change vs LY Currency Total operating revenue 11,133 10, Payroll expenditure -2,275-2, Jet fuel -1,765-2, Government charges -1,090-1, Other operating expenditure -3,829-3, Total operating expenses* -8,959-8, EBITDAR before non-recurring items 2,174 2, EBITDAR-margin* 19.5% 19.0% +0.5 p.u. Leasing costs, aircraft Depreciation Share of income in affiliated companies EBIT before non-recurring items 1,125 1, EBIT-margin* 10.1% 10.1% +0.0 p.u. Financial items EBT before non-recurring items 1, Non-recurring items EBT 1,036 1, * = Before non-recurring items 15 Earnings analysis of Q3 EBT MSEK , , EBT Currency EBT Q3 Total Q3 FY15 FY15 revenue Fuel Capacity increase Index/ CPI Tech. Maint. Strike, net effect Cost program Others EBT Q3 FY

9 Revenue analysis Total Revenue Q3 MSEK Estimated based on average yield in Q3 FY , , ,705 Total revenue Q3 FY15 Currency Total revenue Q3 FY15 Scheduled capacity change Load factor Total load factor Yield Other traffic revenue Other operating revenue Total revenue Q3 FY % +1.3 p.u. -5.1% 17 Jet fuel costs MSEK 579 lower in Q3 Fuel cost Q3 MSEK +14-1, , , Q3 FY15 Currency Curr. adj. Q3 FY15 Volume Price Hedging & time value Other Q3 FY

10 Jet fuel and currencies Jet fuel Hedge position as at 31 July % of jet fuel hedged in Q4 FY16 - mostly swaps 26% participation in lower prices to USD 500/MT in Q4 FY16 47% of jet fuel hedged in FY17 mix of call options and swaps at $450/MT on average Hedging position increased early August Jet fuel cost expected to be approximately SEK 2.1bn lower in FY16 vs. LY Currency Policy to hedge 40-80% of expected currency deficit/surplus next 12 months Jet fuel cost sensitivity FY16, SEK bn* Average spot price 8.0 SEK/USD 9.0 SEK/USD USD 300/MT USD 400/MT USD 600/MT Currency and hedges 51% of USD hedged next 12 months 60% of NOK hedged next 12 months * Based on actual jet fuel costs during Q1 to Q3 FY16 and hedge position as at 31 July Capital optimization liquidity, equity and investments Financial preparedness 40% 37% 40% 35% 39% Financial preparedness at 39% Cash position at SEK 8.4bn Unutilized credit facilities of SEK 2.8bn Optimization of financing cost Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Buy-back of 6 operating leased aircraft in FY16 - FY17 to reduce overall financing costs Equity ratio Net investment guidance for FY16 raised to SEK 2-2.5bn 21% 21% 16% 15% 17% SEK 5.2bn in equity Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Revaluation of pensions due to lower discount rates affected total comprehensive income and the equity negatively in Q3 by SEK

11 Outlook and upcoming highlights Increased uncertainty Brexit and geo-political uncertainty Volatile currency and jet fuel prices Terror threats and attacks Introduction of air related taxes Assumptions for FY16 SAS to increase ASK by 10% Substantially lower PASK and unit cost Efficiency program to deliver about SEK 0.7bn Outlook FY16 SAS expects to post a positive EBT before nonrecurring items Capacity outlook into FY17 Market winter capacity: lower growth than winter 2016 SAS FY17 capacity: lower growth than FY16 First delivery of Airbus A320neo Launch of Miami route 28 September Roll-out of new digital solutions 21 11

12 SAS strategy is to focus on Scandinavia s frequent travelers Typical low cost carrier strategy Strategy of SAS Market Operational platform Multimarket focus, general low yield, especially leisure One type fleet, operate traffic flows that fit fleet Focus on Scandinavia s frequent travelers Fleet designed to fit best network and schedule for customers Growth New destinations, anywhere Improve offer for primary customer base to increase loyalty 23 Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & PASK) & Unit cost Traffic & capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 24 12

13 SAS fleet July 2016 Aircraft in traffic under SK traffic license Age Owned Leased Total Firm order Airbus A330/A340/A Airbus A321/A320/A Boeing 737 NG Total Lease order Aircraft in service under a license other than SAS s (SK) Age Owned Wet lease Total Wet lease order Boeing Bombardier CRJ ATR Total Leased/phased out aircraft Owned Leased Total In service Parked Bombardier Q Bombardier CRJ SAS investing in renewal and simplification of the aircraft fleet Current fleet in traffic with SK traffic license, 31 July 2016 New orders 16 Airbus A330/A340 8 Airbus A330E/350 Long-haul 30 Airbus A320neo Short/medium-haul 25 Airbus A320 family Firm order aircraft deliveries as at 31 Jul Boeing 737 NG Airbus A350 Airbus A320neo

14 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Productivity development Aircraft utilization (12 months rolling) Hrs/day 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 Cabin, pilot utilization (12 months rolling) Hrs/yr Capacity reduction initiated Pilots Cabin crew Block hours, 12 months rolling, July 2016 Aircraft, hours/day Pilots, hours/year Cabin, hours/year SAS Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & PASK) & unit cost Traffic & capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 28 14

15 Yield and PASK development Yield, SEK Currency adj May-Jul Nov-Jul PASK, SEK currency adj May-Jul Nov-Jul -5.1% -7.2% -3.5% -8.1% 29 Long term yield and passenger load development Load Factor Yield (SEK) 80% 70% 60% January 2005 January 2006 Yield (12 months rolling) January 2007 Load Factor (12 months rolling) January 2008 January 2009 January 2010 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January ,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,

16 Quarterly yield development Scandinavian Airlines, currency adjusted yield vs last year 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% -20,0% -6,3% -14,3% -15,6% 1,2% 7,8% -0,6% -0,6% -7,8% 9,2% 1,2% 1,9% 16,0% 15,4% 8,3% 5,6% 3,8% 2,7% 2,9% 1,0% 0,1% -6,0% 0,6% -1,3% -2,3% -2,3% -4,3% -4,0%-2,7% -6,6% -8,2%-7,6% -6,7% -9,4% -11,4% 3,1% 2,7% 1,8% 1,6% 2,7% -0,6% -3,1% -4,1% -5,6% -9,8% -10,6% 8,8% 6,1% -1,5% -5,1% -7,8% -9,2% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Oct Q Q Q 2012 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: Including Blue1 from March Capacity and FTE Capacity ASK total, millions 8.9% SAS FTEs % May-Jul 2015 May-Jul 2016 May-Jul 2015 May-Jul

17 Quarterly unit cost development Scandinavian Airlines, currency adjusted unit cost excluding fuel vs last year 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: Including Blue1 from March Breakdown of unit cost, May-July 2016 SAS, SEK, currency adjusted Unit cost breakdown May 2015 Jul 2016 May 2014 Jul 2015 Var, % Share of total var, % Payroll expenses Jet fuel Government user fees Selling and distribution costs Handling costs Technical aircraft maint. Net other operating expenses -2,270-1,765-1, ,536-2,533-1, % -30.3% -6.0% -14.6% +13.5% +22.3% +38.5% -2.7% -7.9% -0.7% -1.0% +0.8% +1.5% +2.1% Total operating expenses -7,888-8, % -8.0% Leasing costs for aircraft Depreciation % -9.7% +0.3% -0.4% Adjusted EBIT -8,963-9, % -8.1% 34 17

18 Breakdown of unit cost, Nov- Jul 2016 SAS, SEK, currency adjusted Unit cost breakdown Nov 2015 Jul 2016 Nov 2014 Jul 2015 Var, % Share of total var, % Payroll expenses Jet fuel Government user fees Selling and distribution costs Handling costs Technical aircraft maint. Net other operating expenses -6,899-4,490-2,978-1,741-1,794-2,422-1,775-7,782-7,591-3,204-1,979-1,573-2,068-1, % -40.8% -7.0% -12.0% +14.1% +17.1% +29.6% -3.1% -10.7% -0.8% -0.8% +0.8% +1.2% +1.4% Total operating expenses -22,101-25, % -12.0% Leasing costs for aircraft Depreciation -2, ,190-1, % -12.6% -0.2% -0.5% Adjusted EBIT -25,234-28, % -12.7% 35 Summary of key drivers SAS Q4 2014/15 Q1 2015/16 Q2 2015/16 Q3 2015/16 Scheduled traffic (RPK) +1.1% +9.6% +7.9% +9.8% Passenger load factor +0.8p.u. 1.7p.u p.u p.u. Passenger yield -1.5% -7.8% -9.2% -5.1% Total unit revenue (PASK) -0.5% -10.0% -11.5% -3.5% Total unit cost (excluding fuel) +3.5% -6.6% -1.3% -0.3% 36 18

19 Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & PASK) & Unit cost Traffic and capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 37 SAS geographical traffic development in Q3 Total scheduled traffic, Q3 RPK +9.8% ASK +8.1% Passengers +3.1% PASK -3.5% Domestic RPK +2.5% ASK -1.3% Passengers +2.8% Intercontinental routes RPK +30.7% ASK +31.7% Passengers +3.1% Europe/Intrascandinavia RPK -0.5% ASK -1.5% Passengers +1.0% 38 19

20 jan-12 mar-12 may-12 jul-12 sep-12 nov-12 jan-13 mar-13 may-13 jul-13 jul sep 13-nov jan-14 mar-14 may jul 14-sep Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 July-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 SAS passenger development Scheduled passenger, 12 months rolling (Million) SAS grows its long-haul operation to From 12 to 16 aircraft More frequencies on existing routes New routes to Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Miami and Boston BOS EWR IAD MIA ORD SFO LAX OSL CPH ARN NRT PEK PVG HKG Capacity increase in FY16 of 25% Destinations and an attractive product for the frequent traveler BOSTON HONG KONG Stockholm Hong Kong 5 days a week Book at flysas.com A

21 Market seat capacity Supply and demand in Scandinavia, vs LY Seats FY15 Passengers 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 4% FY16 7% 7% 7% 6% 3% 5% 3% FY17 3% Market capacity to/from and within Scandinavia expected to grow 5% in FY16-3% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 41 Source: Innovata Schedule data ASK outlook for financial year 2015/2016 ASK outlook for November 2015 October 2016 SAS scheduled Long-haul Number of flights Circa +10% Circa +25% Circa +1% 42 21

22 Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & PASK) & Unit cost Traffic & capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 43 Financial targets The SAS Group s overriding goal is to create value for its shareholders* Financial preparedness Cash & unutilized credit facilities / Fixed cost >20% (70 days) To reach this, SAS pursues three strategic priorities to meet trends and industry developments, ensure competitiveness and create the prerequisites for longterm sustainable profitability, in line with previously announced financial targets

23 Income statement Nov 2015 Jul 2016 Income statement Nov15-Jul 16 Nov14-Jul15 Change vs LY Currency Total operating revenue 28,324 28, Payroll expenditure -6,917-7, Jet fuel -4,490-6,666 +2,176 Government charges -2,978-2,969-9 Other operating expenditure -10,461-8,652-1,809 Total operating expenses* -24,846-25, EBITDAR before non-recurring items 3,478 3, ,241 EBITDAR-margin* 12.3% 11.0% +1.3 p.u. Leasing costs, aircraft -2,143-1, Depreciation , Share of income in affiliated companies EBIT before non-recurring items ,310 EBIT-margin* 1.3% 0.8% +0.5 p.u. Financial items EBT before non-recurring items ,322 Non-recurring items EBT ,322 * = Before non-recurring items 45 Overview of credit facilities April 2016 Available funds, SEK billion Jul 2016 Maturity Undrawn portion of credit facilities Revolving Credit Facility, MEUR 150 Credit Facility, MUSD 137 & 29 Credit Facility, MUSD 50 PDP Credit facility, MUSD 54 & 46 Others, MUSD Jan 2019 Jun 2018, Oct 2017 Sep 2021 Feb 2017, Jun 2018 Feb 2020 Total undrawn credit facilities Total credit facilities Drawn portion of credit facilities Undrawn portion of credit facilities

24 Cash seasonality Seasonality of SAS cash flow from operating activities, MSEK Cash flow from operating activities strongest in Q2 and Q4 Seasonality has increased Leisure travelling generates a higher degree of early bookings Business bookings closer to departure Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 47 Amortization profile Scheduled amortization profile as of 31 July 2016, SEK billion Oct-21 > Aug-Oct 48 24

25 Gearing ratios 450% 350% 250% Fin Net Debt / Equity Equity / Total Assets Fin. Net Debt + 7*Op lease / Equity 150% 50% -50% -150% dec-98 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec 06-dec 07-dec 01-dec 09-dec 10-dec dec-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct SAS Group Financial Net November- April MSEK May 16 Jul16 May 15 Jul 15 Difference Interest net and others Exchange rate differences Financial net MSEK Nov 15 Jul16 Nov 14 Jul 15 Difference Interest net and others Exchange rate differences Financial net

26 Development and Break Down Financial Net Debt MSEK 31 Jul Oct 2015 Difference Cash Other interest bearing assets Interest bearing liabilities 8,449 2,282-9,921 8,198 2,273-9, Financial net debt Development of financial net debt as reported on a quarterly basis 52 26

27 Equity / Assets Ratio as report on a quarterly basis 53 Financial Net Debt / Equity as reported on a quarterly basis 54 27

28 Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & PASK) & Unit cost Traffic & capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 55 Breakdown of currency effects SAS Group Total revenues & costs currency effects May-Jul 2016 vs LY Nov 2015-Jul 2016 vs LY Total revenues & costs USD DKK NOK EUR Asian currencies All others Total Forward cover costs Difference Working capital Difference Financial items Difference Total currency effects 433 1,

29 Changes in currency exchange rates affected the result by MSEK 1,322 in Nov 2015-Jul 2016 vs Nov 2014-Jul 2015 Currency effects MSEK on SAS Group 2015/2016 vs 2014/2015 May-Jul 16 Nov 15-Jul 16 Negative impact on revenue due to the weaker NOK. Positive impact on other operating costs due to the weaker NOK, offset by an even larger negative impact due to the stronger USD in Q1. Total revenue Total costs Forward cover costs & working capital Income before depreciation 434 1,310 Financial items 1 12 Income before tax 433 1, SAS currency distribution - Nov 2014 Oct 2015 Revenue Other EUR 5% 11% SEK GBP 29% 3% Expenses EUR 14% GBP 1% Other 1% SEK 18% USD 7% 14% DKK NOK 32% 14% DKK 36% USD 16% NOK 58 29

30 SAS hedging position for FY16-FY17 Max jet fuel price Q4 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 $ % 57% 39% $ % SAS jet fuel costs in 2015/16 (annual average values) 7.0 SEK/USD 8.0 SEK/USD 9.0 SEK/USD 10.0 SEK/USD Market price 300 USD/MT 400 USD/MT 600 USD/MT 800 USD/MT SEK 5.9 bn SEK 6.0 bn SEK 6.1 bn SEK 6.2 bn SEK 6.1 bn SEK 6.2 bn SEK 6.3 bn SEK 6.4 bn SEK 6.4 bn SEK 6.4 bn SEK 6.5 bn SEK 6.7 bn SEK 6.6 bn SEK 6.6 bn SEK 6.8 bn SEK 6.9 bn 59 30