Air Cargo Trends in The Americas

Transcription

1 Air Cargo Trends in The Americas Andy Ricover Air Transport Specialist October 7, 2017, Kuala Lumpur FIATA World Congress 1

2 Top 20 Cargo airports in the World by throughput Loaded and unloaded cargo 2016 Hong Kong Memphis Shanghai Incheon Dubai Anchorage Alaska Louisville Growth in loaded and unloaded cargo 2016 vs 2015 Doha Guangzhou Singapore Shanghai Incheon Louisville Taipei Tokyo Paris Frankfurt Taipei Miami Singapore Los Angeles Beijing Doha Amsterdam Guangzhou London Chicago Hong Kong Dubai London Los Angeles Beijing Amsterdam Paris Tokyo Frankfurt Memphis Miami Chicago Alaska Average growth of top Asian airports: 6.0% Average growth of top US airports: 0.8% Millions of metric tons -5% 5% 15% 25% Source: AGL analysis, ACI 2

3 Top 20 Cargo airports in the World by throughput Loaded and unloaded metric tons 2016 Hong Kong Memphis Shanghai Incheon Dubai Anchorage Alaska Louisville Tokyo Paris Frankfurt Taipei Miami Singapore Los Angeles Beijing Doha Amsterdam Guangzhou London Chicago Millions of metric tons Loaded and unloaded metric tons 2000 Memphis Hong Kong Los Angeles Tokyo Incheon New York JFK Anchorage Frankfurt Singapore Miami Paris Louisville Chicago London Amsterdam Taipei Indianapolis Newark Osaka Dallas Millions of metric tons AIR CARGO TRENDS Source: IN ALG THEanalysis, AMERICAS ACI Airport Growth Memphis % Hong Kong % Los Angeles % Tokyo % Incheon % New York 6 Out N/A Anchorage % Frankfurt % Singapore % Miami % Paris % Louisville % Chicago % London % Amsterdam % Taipei % Indianapolis 17 Out N/A Newark 18 Out N/A Osaka 19 Out N/A Dallas 20 Out N/A Shanghai Out 3 > 200% Dubai Out 5 >200% 3

4 Top 20 Cargo airports in the World by throughput (tons) 2016 Europe has 4: combination of large freighters hubs and pax driven (belly) The 20 largest cargo airports of the world are all located in the Northern hemisphere MEX M The US has 6 of the 20 largest cargo airports of the world BOG M GRU M The Gulf has 2: DXB is #5 and DOH is a new member East Asia concentrates 8 of the largest cargo airports of the World. Hong Kong (#1) Source: ALG analysis, ACI data No LAC s airports on top 30: - BOG is # 38 - GRU # 50 - MEX # 51 - UIO - LIM 4

5 LAC s contribution in global air cargo flows Central América Central &Caribe América Central &Caribe Total América LatAm Total &Caribe LatAm Total Asia LatAm Asia Asia Tocumen Tocumen Tocumen Bogota Bogota Hong 637 Bogota Kong Hong Kong Hong 4.380Kong Puerto RicoPuerto 146 Rico Guarulhos Puerto 146 RicoGuarulhos Guarulhos Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai 2500 San Jose San 76 Jose 76 San Mexico Jose Mexico Mexico Dubai Dubai Dubai Source: ALG analysis with data from Airbus Global Market Forecast 2015/35 Guatemala Guatemala 59 S. Domingo S. Domingo Guatemala Lima 56 S. Santiago Domingo Lima Santiago Incheon Lima Santiago Tokyo Incheon Tokyo Incheon Tokyo

6 LAC s contribution in global air cargo flows LAC ~6 % GDP 4.7% of world s cargo Central América Central &Caribe América Central &Caribe Total América LatAm Total &Caribe LatAm Total Asia LatAm Asia Asia Tocumen Tocumen Tocumen Bogota Bogota Hong 637 Bogota Kong Hong Kong Hong 4.380Kong Puerto RicoPuerto 146 Rico Guarulhos Puerto 146 RicoGuarulhos Guarulhos Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai 2500 San Jose San 76 Jose 76 San Mexico Jose Mexico Mexico Dubai Dubai Dubai Source: ALG analysis with data from Airbus Global Market Forecast 2015/35 Guatemala Guatemala 59 S. Domingo S. Domingo Guatemala Lima 56 S. Santiago Domingo Lima Santiago Incheon Lima Santiago Tokyo Incheon Tokyo Incheon Tokyo

7 Miami: Latin American connection to Asia Source: SterlingTransportation 7

8 Miami as the gateway with LAC: Freighters Capacity Main LAC airports with departing cargo to MIA* Capacity share of international freight tons according to OAG Main Freighters at MIA % MEX 4% SDQ 5% SAP 2% MGA 10% SJO 4% PTY UIO 10% The bulk of cargo into MIA is from Central America, Bogotá and Quito LIM 4% 80% of US trade with LatAm 50%-50% O&D/Connections 82% freighters, 18% belly flights: 76 pax 79 cargo MIA BOG 18% STI 3% SJU 6% CCS5% POS3% MDE 11% MAR 2% VCP 1% 6% 15% 6% 4% 5% Another 6 freighters 31% 33% Note*: only the capacity of full freighter airlines was considered for this analysis (no belly cargo) Source: consultant, using information from OAG 8

9 Air Cargo and trade statistics - Miami International airport Top ten trade partners by weight 2016 Top ten trade partners by value 2016 Colombia Brazil 24% 21% Chile Peru 18% Colombia Chile 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 6% 9% 12% 18% Brazil Ecuador Argentina Costa Rica Dominican Republic Honduras Guatemala Other 41% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 9% 6% 5% 5% Peru Switzerland China Argentina Italy Costa Rica Germany Others 2/3 of the tonage is are with 6 countries Source: Miami International Airport 9

10 Miami: Imports and Exports of Commodities 36% 91% are perishables 29% 18% 7% 9% Source: Miami International Airport 10

11 Miami: Imports and Exports of Commodities watch the sclae! Source: Miami International Airport 11

12 Miami International airport - total trade compared to other US airports Perishable products 810 K tons 12% 6% 5% Flowers 221 K tons % 14% 64% 89% MIA LAX Other US airports MIA JFK LAX Other US airports Fruits and Vegetables 225 K tons 10% 8% 20% Fish / Seafood 343K tons 15% 12% 50% 67% 18% MIA JFK LAX Other US airports MIA JFK LAX Other US airports Source: Miami International Airport 12

13 Miami International Airport: two new projects Value of Imports and Exports of Pharma via MIA (in 000 USD) Ocean-to-Air: Central America s perishables imports exports Source: Miami International Airport 13

14 LAC Busiest Air Cargo Airports in 2015 Main cargo airports in LAC (000 ton 2015) Ranking of LAC Airports in Cargo (000 ton 2015) CAGR Guadalajara Monterrey México DF Santo Domingo The Top 30 airports in LAC moved more than Ton in 2016 Bogota Guarulhos México DF Lima ,4% 2,8% 2,6% 5,0% Barranquilla San José Panamá Cali Quito Guayaquil Lima Caracas Medellín Bogotá Manaus Puerto España Brasília Belém Fortaleza Salvador Recife Santiago do Chile Quito Viracopos Buenos Aires Guadalajara ,1% 5,1% -1,8% -1,5% 0,9% Guarulhos + Viracopos + Congonhas Porto Alegre Belo Horizonte Rio de Janeiro Manaus Medellín Rio de Janeiro ,9% 2,4% 1,0% Santiago de Chile Montevideo Buenos Aires Panamá Caracas Brasilia ,1% 4,8% -2,6% 14

15 Top 15 airports in LatAm: Passenger traffic and Transported cargo Transported cargo 2016* Passenger traffic 2016 Bogota Mexico City São Paulo Guarulhos Lima Quito Sao Paulo Viracopos Guadalajara Santiago de Chile Medellin Panama City Buenos Aires Ezeiza Manaus Caracas San Jose Rio de Janeiro Galeão Tons ( 000) Note*: cargo data for Caracas, Buenos Aires Ezeiza and San Jose airports are of 2015 Mexico City São Paulo Guarulhos Bogota Cancun São Paulo Congonhas Lima Santiago de Chile Brasília Rio de Janeiro Galeão Panama City Buenos Aires Aeroparque Guadalajara Buenos Aires Ezeiza Confins Belo Horizonte Sao Paulo Viracopos M Pax Source: consultant, using information published by airports and Civil Aviation Departments 15

16 The role of the Latin American Airports in the Cargo Business (2015) Tons (000) volume of circle: ratio freight/total workload units (%) large cargo airports airline hubs with relevant cargo airline hubs without cargo international gateways with relevant cargo hubs/gateways with growing relevance of cargo 27% Pax (000) Source: ALG analysis on Flightglobal and ATI 16

17 LAC Recently modernization of the airport cargo facilities Lima Cargo City (Perú) Opening May tons in 2015 Cargo Terminal Eldorado (Colombia) Opening Julio tons in 2015 Quito (Ecuador) Opening Agosto tons in 2015 Guadalajara (México) Opening Mayo tons in 2014 Important developments, Panama Tocumen, Quito, Guadalajara 17

18 New Mexico City Airport: opening 2020? Source: GACM 20

19 Mexico City s current situation: large number of operators Integrators: 16.4% 5% 4% 17% Wharehouses: 47.1% *5% 5% 13% 6% Avianca, Latam, Copa 7% 9% 15% 6% Carriers: 36.5% Cargolux, Amerijet, United Panalpina, Aerounión Source: ALG Analysis with OAG and SCT (Mexico) data 21

20 New Mexico City Airport: New air cargo center ( midfield development) Current Airport New Airport (Phase 1) Total Area (Has) INT/DOM Segregated Integrated Terminals (m 2 ) Docks Apron stands Has 25 stands 11 terminals x m2 500 docks Office Center (> m2) 1000 car spaces Source: GACM 22

21 Lima Airport: it s mostly about asparagus Lima Airport Exports (tons) 350' ' ' ' ' '000 50' % fresh 70% 30% 87 % frozen/canned 3% fresh 23

22 Lima Airport: New Cargo Facility 24

23 Bogotá Airport: Exports of Colombian Flowers 96.2% by air Source: OPAIN and Asocolflores 25

24 Bogotá Airport El Dorado Regional Connectivity KLM/Cargolux Total Freight and LR Frequencies 45% total freight (000 tons) long range freqs/wk The role of BOG is changing with the introduction of long-haul aircraft (e.g. AV s 787s) Source: ALG analysis on data from Opain, Aerocivil and airlines Source: ALG analysis on Flightglobal and OAG data 26

25 Bogotá El Dorado: Cargo terminal (2010) Colombia is world s 2nd flower exporter 80% exports are flowers (75% to USA) 75% traffic with freighters 12,000 ops Cargo 27

26 Bogotá Airport: Terminal Cargo Facilities >650k tons in 2016 T1, T2 & T3 68,000 m2 25 apron positions 214 trucking docks Business Center (6.500 m2) Source: Opain 28

27 Quito Airport: new airport inaugurated in 2012 Elevation Runway Quiport Distance from City Center Passengers Cargo 2,400 m 4,100 m 40 km 5 millions tn (3 rd LAC exporter) 29

28 Quito Airport: Cargo facilities Cargo terminal ( m2) Tababela Cargo Center (flowers) 30

29 Quito Airport: a cargo busy day Over 5 wide-body freighters: what s happening? Atlas Cargolux Airbridge UPS Etihad Emirates LAN Cargo AF/KLM/Martinair Cargologic Centurion Avianca Cubana Tampa LAS 31

30 TONS Quito Airport: Cargo traffic profile in 000 tons 18'000 17'000 16'000 15'000 14'000 13'000 12'000 11'000 10'000 Valentine s Day Tons Russian Women s Day Tons US/Europe Mother s Day Tons Outgoing Cargo (2017) CARGO OUT Tons Back to School Russia Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 12.5 Russian Mother s Day 14.9 Santos Season 13.1 Holidays 13.7 Cargo OUT Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total * * * * Source: Quiport 32

31 Panama Tocumen Air Cargo: 92 Destinations 300 Daily flights Copa: cargo is not the core business Long haul developments: TK, KL, LH, EK increasing belly capacity Source: Panama-Tocumen Shipping: 5% World s international trade 65 Services with weekly frequency 17 millions of annual TEU s potential to develop a logistics center to distribute by air sea fright 33

32 Panama Tocumen: LAC s biggest international network 300 flights daily connecting 92 destinations from North, Center and South America best connected airport in LAC (# destinations) AMS MAD FRA IST Panamá México Sao Paulo (GRU) DBX Buenos Aires (EZE) Lima Santiago de Chile Bogotá Rio de Janeiro Montevideo Medellín Cali Cartagena Source: Panama-Tocumen 34

33 Panamá Tocumen: Future airport cargo center (in construction) Cargo Terminal Areas Warehouse 1st line Total: m 2 (Net new: m 2 ) Logistic Zone Areas Logistic Parcels Source: Panama-Tocumen Parcels: m 2 (Warehouses: m 2 ) 35

34 IATA s Analysis by Region International FTK growth by route (YTD, % y-o-y, up to Apr 2017) 36

35 Opposite results for North America and Latin America Air freight market detail May

36 Improved Load Factors in both Regions, due to different reasons Freight load factors by region airport in LAC demand increased more than capacity demand decreased airlines adjusted 38

37 Concluding remarks Demand in the region is increasing: progressive improvements in production and logistics of perishables recuperating demand from the developed economies increased capacity on belly cargo driven by increased passenger demand perishables are commodities, sensible to the fuel price that can affec exports Airports are adapting capacity: refocusing in the cargo business, mainly as landlords large investments in infrastructure, upgrading logistics and technologies business model allowing the introduction of competition red tape continues to be the largest challenge, trade-off between control and functionality airports searching for new markets 39

38 Thank you photos; Ricover 40