Bruxelles 12th march 2019 Airports of the future

Transcription

1 Bruxelles 12th march 2019 Airports of the future Marc Noyelle former deputy CEO of Aéroports de Paris and President of ADPi 1

2 CAUTION and MODESTY Most «future airports» concepts imagined in the past never became reality For example : VTOL or STOL aircraft will never be important in air transport because they need too much energy. >> Long Runways

3 I- Requirements made on Airports, air traffic & ticket price forecast II- Airport capacities - Ground access - Environment III- Quality of Service : No Stress Security Luggage Passenger Information IV- Structures of Airports of the future V- Conclusions : Airports in

4 I- REQUIREMENTS made on AIRPORTS Traffic: meet the demand by 2060: Ø Passengers x 3 > 11 Bpax Ø Average load > 135 pax/plane by 2060 Ø (100 in 2017) Ø Flights x 2,2 PASSENGERS AIRLINES OTHERS Minimal waiting time Easy access No stress Right Information Good services Low cost Size 80m x 80m x 80 Rapid aircraft turnaround times Maximum use of contact stand Flow management Hubs (easy transfer) Alliances Safety & security Environment friendliness Economic development Chain & Risk management

5 Air traffic : strong growth >+6% /year! but it will slow down Mpax Atlanta BeijingCptl 600 Kflight 3-88 Dubai Tokyo Haneda Los Angeles Chicago L.Heathrow Hong Kong Shanghaï Paris CDG Amsterdam Dallas ü 3,8 billion passengers in 2017 ü 36 million tons of freight ü 2% of global CO2 emissions ü 2,5 trillion in economic activity ü 60 million jobs Guangzhou Frankfurt Istanbul New-Delhi Jakarta Singapore Seoul-Incheon 385

6 Commercial Airports in the WORLD Total >10000 pax /yr incl. France > 10 Mpax / year > 60 Mpax / year Europe North America South America Africa and Middle East Asia and Pacific CDG,ORY Nice Lyon Brx 4 London, CDG, AMS, FRA ATL, LAX, Chicago, DFW, DEN, NY-JFK = 13 1 Dubaï PEK, HND, HKG, PVG,.. IST, SIN, JAK, ICN, BKK Total (2017)

7 Breakdown ticket PRICE Sources AEA, IATA, AF, ADP Legacy Airlines 2010 Average ticket price in 2010 (< 200 US$) Average ticket price in 2050 (Same distance as in 2010) Aircraft + maintenance* 14 to 20 % 17 u 11,2 % 11,9 u Jet Fuel 20 to 28 % 25 u 47,8 % 50,7 u Staff 13 to 31 % 22 u 14,5 % 15,4 u ATM 3 to 4 % 3,5 u 2,3 % 2,5 u Ground handling and catering* Airports (domanial and security) Commercial + Admin. costs* + Margin 4 to 12 % 8 u 5,9 % 5,6 u 8 to 13 % 10,5 u 10 % 10,5 u 10 to 18 % 14 u 9,3 % 9,8 u Total 100 % 100 u (<200 US $) 106,1 u (<212 US $) * Staff costs excluded 7

8 Average ticket price per km $ 2010 US cents 2010 facts Hypothesis AAE without extra tax Price excluding fuel fuel 2,5 to 5,2 c$/km 8

9 I- Requirements made on Airports, air traffic, ticket price forecast II- Airport capacities - Ground access - Environment III- Quality of Service : No Stress Security Luggage Passenger Information IV- Structures of Airports of the future V- Conclusions : Airports in

10 II- CAPACITY of an AIRPORT : 4 factors Air side Land side 1 Runways 2 Load/plane 3 Terminals 4 Environmt Average load 100pax/plane in 2017,135 by

11 DUBAÏ 88 Mpax 2 runways only, same as London Heathrow (1400 ha) with traffic > CDG Jebel-Ali ( ha) 11

12 Airport terminals at PARIS-CDG Terminal 1 15 Mpax 3300 ha = 8200 acres Terminal 4 40 mpax Terminal 2G 3 Mpax Average load in 2017 : 144 pax by plane Total Capacity # Mpax Terminal 2 ABCD 22 Mpax Terminal 2 EF 40 Mpax with # 190 pax by plane in

13 TGV PAX ACCESS /3 by roa d PAX Terminal 1 CDG Val Terminal 4 Inner loop 2 nd Car Entrance Main Car Entrance Carpark PW Terminal 2 STAFF RER Metro line 17 CDG Express 96% by road 13

14 LINKS with PARIS Paris Charles de Gaulle CDG Express 32 km CDG < 20 minutes 4 trains per hour in each direction 6 to 10M passengers/yr 2,2 G 1st tr 2024? PARIS

15 Environment around airports NOISE : - Best procedures : Example CDA (ContinuousDescent) - Limit the noisiest aircraft during the night. - Sound-proofing grants to existing residents. Urban planning preserving extension possibility for the airport. Low emission: engine off as long as possible (no APU = no CO2) CDQM (Collaborative Departure Queue Management). Eco buildings (meters) and eco-driving. Develop a relationship of mutual trust between residents, local authorities and airport. 15

16 I- Requirements made on Airports, air traffic, ticket price forecast II- Airport capacities - Ground access - Environment III- Quality of Service : No Stress Security Luggage Passenger Information IV- Structures of Airports of the future V- Conclusions : Airports in

17 STRESS of a passenger before DEPARTURE Arrival to the airport Check-in Controls Boarding STRESS LEVEL Fear of missing the plane Relief If flight is delayed

18 Security: hard to please each passenger Des clients de plus en plus exigeants et soucieux de leur confort Je ne veux pas perdre de temps Je veux me sentir en sécurité Ca change tout le temps Je n aime pas être palpé Je veux qu on me traite avec courtoisie J ai peur de rater mon avion Je n y comprends rien et en plus ce n est pas partout pareil Je n apprécie pas de devoir abandonner un objet au PIF Je dois partir à l heure J ai une correspondance Le coût est 6 - DIRECTION SECURITY DE LA SÛRETE ET DU MANAGEMENT DES RISQUES = - 22/12/2009 Time dissuasif + Space + Cost 18

19 Faster and more efficient CONTROLS Fast track for all passengers Biometric controls Full body scanner Need more space Police and security controls will (must) be much more comfortable

20 LUGGAGE PROCESSING in 2017: in 2060: Time before delivery # 30 < 20 Non delivery upon arrival # 3% < 1% Damaged baggages # 3% < 1% Connecting Time 60 < 40? Increase ability to take more hand luggage in the aircraft?

21 Automatic baggage processing

22 Luggage : better work conditions Suction gripper system Experimentation in Nice, in Sweden,...

23 Passenger Information + New Technologies Ø e-airport? (do it yourself) + Help Ø e-ticket Ø Self registering: mobile phone Ø e-gates, Biometry, etc. Ø GPS / GALILEO Ø Passenger tracking Ø Managing the flow + mobile device Ø Interactive screening Ø RFID baggage tag Ø Security on tarmac, CDM,... Ø Adequate personal information

24 I- Requirements made on airports, air traffic, ticket price forecast II- Airport capacities - Ground access - Environment III- Quality of Service : No Stress Security Luggage Passenger Information IV- Structures of Airports of the future V- Conclusions : Airports in

25 IV Structures of Airports of the future 4 concepts : 1- No airport? No : VTOL and STOL aircraft need too much energy. Planes need long runways. 2- Registration terminal located down town and quick links to boarding concourses? Security is too difficult! 3- Passenger Airport Shuttle between registration terminal and boarding concourses (near the runways), with automatic controls in these shuttles? This would monopolise too much ground surface. 4- Compact airpot like Dubaï or Beijing airport It is not practical to have several airports around a metropol: rapid links between them are too difficult! 25

26 Compact and adaptable airport REDUCE WALKINGDISTANCES < 650 M LUGGAGE: REDUCE TRANSFER TIME CENTRALISED BHS ENCOURAGE BUSINESSES CONCENTRATED STRATEGY Star or Linear 26

27 BEIJING (Daxing) NEW AIRPORT TERMINAL 1 : 72 Mpax, 135 contact stands Walk d < 650m 27 Concentrated Businesses and BHS

28 SPACE REQUIREMENTS Passenger Terminals need more & more space (even in compact airports ) 1 2 ATLANTA HEATHROW GBBEIJING Cptl 28

29 HONG KONG NEW TERMINAL 2 : 1 Mm2, 70 Mpax +650ha with a 3rd runway 29

30 NEW ISTANBUL int. AIRPORT 7000 ha 5+1 runways cross wind Phase 1 Terminal 1: 1Mm2 70 Mpax 2019 Phase Mpax (ultimate) PAGE 30

31 LONDON-Heathrow A third runway?? (T5 = 50 Mpax) 31

32 New runways & taxiways??? 32

33 CONCLUSIONS Ø Price should remain reasonable despite fuel cost increase. Ø To meet the demand by 2060 (nb Pax x 3, Flights x 2,2), most airports must invest heavily + #100 new platforms. Airports of the future will look like today s (runways) Ø Major issues for only a few large cities : London, New-York, Tokyo, (Hong-Kong), Jakarta, (Istanbul) Ø (125) Hubs will grow faster than point to point airports. Ø Airports of the future will focus on : - environment issues: noise, urbanism, ground access, - mutual trust with local authorities (airport city) - quality of services : security, luggage (efficiency and interoperability), best information : e-technologies Ø Build compact, large and flexible enough. 33

34 Airports of the Future We build today the airports of tomorow Marc NOYELLE Thank you for your attention 34