Industry perspective Current Market Outlook

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1 Industry perspective Current Market Outlook Sam Bolooki Director International Business Development & Programs Boeing Global Air Traffic Management Oct. 2013

2 Agenda Aviation industry 20-year commercial traffic and forecast

3 Aviation ecosystem Capability Passenger Load Fuel Performance Navigation Weather Collision Avoidance Terrain Avoidance Noise Reduction Capability Airline Pilot Training FA Training Flight Planning City Pair Development Flight Schedules Execution Walk Around Flight Plan load Weight and & Balance Push Back Taxi Departure Etc Execution Aircraft Dispatch Crew Scheduling Flight Monitor Plane/Crew /Customer Disruption Management Aviation Ecosystem Capability Terminal/Gates Ramp Taxiway Runway Passenger Flow Airport Capability Airspace Architecture Surveillance Method Digital Communication Common Network ATC Training Operational Plan Execution Airspace Ramp Traffic Management Push Back Clearance Surface Management Disruption Management De-Icing Emergency Execution Trajectory Conflict Mgt Disruption Management Trajectory Negotiation Dynamic Sector Mgt ATC Workflow

4 Oil prices expected to remain elevated and volatile Spot $/Barrel (Brent Crude Oil / Rotterdam Jet Fuel) Jet Fuel /Gallon Brent Crude Oil Historical data source: EIA

5 Fuel has doubled as a percentage of airline costs* over the past 10 years 15% 2003 Fuel price: US $0.82/gal 25% Single-aisle Wide-body 30% 2013 Fuel price: US $2.73/gal 50% *Cash operating cost, typical rules, representative aircraft

6 Cents per seat-mile New technology and intense competition continue to push airline yields downward

7 Agenda Aviation industry 20-year commercial traffic and forecast

8 Why the Current Market Outlook (CMO)? Product strategy Long-range business plan Suppliers and airline customers

9 Boeing forecast accuracy Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats Accurate despite market dynamics Long-term forecasts have been more conservative Single-aisle segment has exceeded expectations CMO Forecast Medium-term Long-term Actual Large aircraft and regional jet segments have underperformed CMO Forecast Actual Sources: CMO 1994, CMO 2003, ASCEND

10 Market forecast drivers and considerations Market liberalization Airplane capabilities Environment High speed rail Fuel price Emerging markets Airline strategies & business models Infrastructure Economic growth Current Market Outlook

11 Air travel and economic growth are directly related Percent annual change passenger traffic Long-term traffic growth Real GDP growth Pax airline traffic growth GDP Sources: Traffic growth ICAO/IATA GDP growth IMF (PPP)

12 RTKs (Billions) RPKs (trillions) World air travel has grown 5% per year since recessions 2 financial crises 2 Gulf wars 1 oil shock 1 near pandemic (SARS) 9/ RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers Source: ICAO scheduled traffic RTKs = Revenue Tone Kilometers

13 20-year forecast: strong long-term growth 2013 to 2032 World economy (GDP) 3.2% Number of airline passengers 4.1% Airline traffic (RPK) 5.0% Cargo traffic (RTK) 5.0%

14 Airplane units Airlines and cargo operators will need more than 36,000 new airplanes Airplane deliveries: 35, ,020 Regional jets 6% 24,670 Singleaisle 70% 4,530 Small wide-body 13% 3,300 Medium wide-body 9% 760 Large wide-body 2% New freighter deliveries: Large More than 80 tonnes 75% 210 Medium 40 to 80 tonnes 25% 0 Standard Less than 45 tonnes

15 Airspace faces new Challenges as Industry Grows Global Fleet Doubles by 2032 (1)... (# Aircraft) Tripling Airport Congestion (2) (Global Aircraft Capacity) 100% +104% 75% 44 Replacement 13,380 Retained 6,030 50% 25% 0% Crowded Airports (3) Congested Airports (4) Notes: (1) Boeing Current Market Outlook (2013) (2) BCA Market Analysis (2013) of top 111 global airports (3) Crowded = projected traffic 85% to 94% capacity (4) Congested = projected traffic > 95% capacity

16 Air travel growth varies by market Within Asia Pacific* 2012 traffic Added traffic Annual growth % 6.2% Within North America 2.3% Within China 6.9% Within Europe 3.6% Europe - Asia Pacific 5.5% North Atlantic 3.5% Middle East - Asia Pacific Within Latin America Trans-Pacific Within/to CIS 7.3% 6.9% 4.5% 4.8% World Average Growth: 5.0% North America - Latin America 5.0% Europe - Latin America 4.7% Africa - Europe 4.8% *Does NOT include within China RPKs, billions

17

18 Conclusions World economy will remain volatile Aviation Industry continues to focus on efficiency Need for airspace and airport capacity optimization Aircraft Collaboration, Collaboration, Collaboration Airline Aviation Ecosystem Airspace Airport We are all in it together

19 Sam Bolooki Director, Int'l BD & Programs Boeing Global Air Traffic Management Office: Mobile: Thank You

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