The Airline Crisis. 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting. Shixin CHENG Manager, Safety, Operations & Infrastructure IATA North Asia Region

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1 The Airline Crisis 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting Shixin CHENG Manager, Safety, Operations & Infrastructure IATA North Asia Region To represent, lead and serve the airline industry

2 Outlook for the airline industry 2008Q3 Update 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 2

3 Financial crisis risks recession S&P 500 (right scale) % S&P m US treasuries yield (left scale) Jan Mar Jun Aug Nov Jan Apr Jun Aug Nov Feb Apr Jul Sep th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 3

4 Risk of recession now spreading Confidence in Europe and the US 110 EU business and consumer confidence 100 Index level US consumer confidence 50 Jan-2004 Jul-2004 Jan-2005 Jul-2005 Jan-2006 Jul-2006 Jan-2007 Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 4

5 Airline share prices down sharply Airlines Shareprices Indices Source: Bloomberg 350 Worldwide US Airlines 300 Asian Airlines European Airlines US$ Jul/05 Oct/05 Jan/06 Apr/06 Jul/06 Oct/06 Jan/07 Apr/07 Jul/07 Oct/07 Jan/08 Apr/08 Jul/08 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 5

6 Fuel costs forecast to reach 40% of operating costs in Fuel bill, % opex (RHS) $ billion % operating costs 50 Fuel bill, $ million F 2009F 0 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 6

7 Traffic volumes going into decline International passenger and freight tonne-kilometers Source: IATA 12% % change over year 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Passenger RPKs Air freight FTKs -4% Jul/05 Oct/05 Jan/06 Apr/06 Jul/06 Oct/06 Jan/07 Apr/07 Jul/07 Oct/07 Jan/08 Apr/08 Jul/08 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 7

8 Leading indicators worsening JPMorgan Output PMI Index and Air Freight Demand Source: Bloomberg, IATA International FTKs JP Morgan Output PMI (+ 3 months) 8 6 PMI Value (50 = No-Chan nge) % Growth, International FTKs ` Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 8

9 Excess capacity limited by increasing number of aircraft parked Aircraft Retirements and Deliveries Source: Ascend 120 Deliveries Retirements Parked (net) 100 Aircraft per month Jan-Jul th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 9

10 Decrease in capacity expected in coming months 2008 Outloo ok (Mil) RTKs & ATKs Source: ICAO 1,000, , , , , , , , , , ATK RTK Load Factor Break even Load Factor Load Factors Excess capacity 85% The oil price break even point for airlines is at US$ 110 / barrel despite a decreasing trend in non fuel costs reaching its limits This could impact the whole air transport industry profitability system E 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 10

11 Losses expected to continue into Operating margin, % (LHS) 5 % sales US$ billion Net losses, $bn (RHS) F 2009F th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 11

12 27 airlines went bust in the first 6 months of this year. The worst is yet to come. 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 12

13 2008 Istanbul Declaration: Eliminate rules that prevent restructuring. Refrain from punitive taxes. States should invest in infrastructure. Monopolistic business partners need to improve efficiency. 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 13

14 4 Pillar Strategy 1. Technology Engines Aircraft Alternative fuels 3. Infrastructure ATM Airports 2. Operations Fuel Book Green Teams Regulatory 4. Economic Measures ETS Carbon Offset Minimize taxes and charges 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 14

15 ACHIEVEMENTS OPERATIONS & INFRASTRUCTURE (in million tonnes CO2) TOTAL CRISIS ACTION PLAN IEMS Identified'08/09 Implemented'08 Note: 1.Implemented : INFRA - Routes/TMA improvements published, OPS - According to airlines reports 2.Identified : INFRA - Potential savings for upcoming route/tma improvement, OPS - Green Team Assessment 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 15

16 Fuel Campaign Results since 2004* 12 OPERATIONS & INFRASTRUCTURE FUEL CAMPAIGN (in Million CO2 tonnes) Infrastructure Identified savings(ops) Implemented/Reported Savings(OPS) * ALL RESULTS ON ANNUAL BASIS 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 16

17 Time for some new initiatives with 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 17

18 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 18

19 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 19

20 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 20

21 Flight Efficiency Plan 5 action points to reduce fuel burn & emissions: 1. Airspace design. 2. Route shortening, flight plan quality improvements. 3. TMAs, CDAs. 4. Airport ops, Collaborative Decision Making. 5. Awareness raising on ATM fuel performance management. 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 21

22 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 22

23 Focus on Low Hanging Fruit CDA s & Pilot Discretion Descents Clean air-speed departures RNAV/RNP Dynamic sharing Civil/Military airspace RVSM 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 23

24 Fuel Savings on Arrivals 10% less fuel. 40% less noise kg per arrival kg less CO th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 24

25 Fuel Savings on Departures Clean Airspeed Departures. Unrestricted climb to cruising altitude. Lift 250kts restriction below 10,000ft kg fuel saved per departure! kg less CO th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 25

26 Fuel Savings with PBN RNP Approach vs Traditional ILS 5,414 RNP Approaches (B ) 17,300 less track miles 200 tonnes fuel saved 650 tonnes CO2 saved 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 26

27 Civil/Military Sharing Airspace 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 27

28 Short Term Summary (as of 6 Oct 08) Section Potential Savings tonnes Fuel Potential Savings tonnes CO2 Potential Savings in US$ INF AFI 9,000 6,000 28,000 19,000 9,799,920 6,480,000 INF AMERICAS 11,000 34,000 11,644,856 INF ASPAC 22, ,000 71, ,000 23,947, ,800,000 INF EUR 469,000 1,496, ,520,000 INF MENA 26,000 82,000 27,756,000 INF NASIA 21,000 67,000 22,681,608 TOTAL 63, , ,000 2,060,000 68,074, ,556,000 # Based on the IATA average fuel price per barrel as at 31st July th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 28

29 www2.iata.org/sites/industrycrisis 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 29

30 IATA Crisis Action Plan Awareness Raised. Action Plans Many Developed. Fast Track Implementation How? 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 30

31 Thank you! 25 th IFATCA ASP Regional Meeting 31

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