Meeting the Demand The Battle for Asia Pacific s Airspace

Transcription

1 Meeting the Demand The Battle for Asia Pacific s Airspace The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. John Schubert Marketing Managing Director Boeing Commercial Airplanes October 2015

2 Agenda Recent market performance 20-year traffic and airplane forecast Product strategy

3 Global aviation market performance Since 2010 Global economic growth rate below average Passenger market resilient, growing Airlines managing better than ever before NOTE: Annual growth rates (%) and cumulative profit ($B)

4 Strong market fundamentals, some at record levels Production increasing to meet demand Traffic: +6% in 2014 Load factors: ~80% globally Utilization: +15% vs Parked fleet: Steady at ~3% Stable values & lease rates Profits: $20 billion and growing Demand Fleet Value

5 Outlook and implications of low oil prices for airlines Oil price outlook Sources: EIA, EIU, IHS, Oxford Economics, PIRA 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/ US airlines fuel expenses including hedges 2Q vs. year ago -27% Brent-Oil ($/b), left Jet Fuel (cents/gal), right World: GDP effects of oil at US$54/b Airlines, net profit (billions $) E 2015F N. Amer Europe Asia MidEast LatinAm Africa

6 20-year traffic and airplane forecast

7 Why the Current Market Outlook (CMO)? Product strategy Long-range business plan Suppliers and airline customers

8 Market forecast drivers and considerations Market liberalization Airplane capabilities Environment High speed rail Fuel price Emerging markets Airline strategies & business models Infrastructure Economic growth Current Market Outlook

9 Resilient, growing market expected to continue 5% long-term growth rate SOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers Above trend since 2010

10 20-year forecast: strong long-term growth 2014 to 2034 World economy (GDP) 3.1% Number of airline passengers 4.0% Airline traffic (RPK) 4.9% Cargo traffic (RTK) 4.7%

11 Emerging markets are driving the economic growth Annual GDP growth, South Asia China Southeast Asia Africa Asia Latin America Middle East World Oceania North America CIS Europe Northeast Asia SOURCE: IHS Economics

12 Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies, nonstops Market fragmentation drives growth Air Travel Growth Frequency Growth Nonstop Markets Average Airplane Size 0.5 SOURCE: August OAG Index 1994=1.00

13 787 Dreamliner opening new markets More than 75 new nonstop markets now connected with the 787 Announced In operation As of October 2, 2015

14 Airlines will need 38,000 new airplanes valued at $5.6 trillion Airplane deliveries: 38, New airplane deliveries by region ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,490 Regional jets 7% 26,730 Singleaisle 70% 4,770 Small wide-body 13% 3,520 Medium wide-body 9% 540 Large wide-body 1% Region Airplanes Asia 14,330 North America 7,890 Europe 7,310 Middle East 3,180 Latin America 3,020 Africa 1,170 C.I.S. 1,150 World Total 38,050 8% 19% 3% 8% 3% 38,050 21% 38%

15 Global fleet will double Units 45,000 43,560 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 21,600 20,000 15,000 10,000 21,960 Growth 58% 16,090 Replacement 42% 38,050 5,000 5,510 Retained fleet

16 Asia will need 675 aircraft each year for the next 20 years Europe Russia/ Central Asia North America Asia-Pacific Growth Replacement Latin America 150 Africa 60 Middle East 675

17 Asia Market Outlook

18 Oceania will need 950 new airplanes valued at $140 billion Airplane deliveries: Regional jets 1% 730 Singleaisle 77% 140 Small wide-body 15% 60 Medium wide-body 6% 10 Large wide-body 1% Market value: $140 billion $<5B Regional jets <1% $80B Singleaisle 57% $30B Small wide-body 21% $20B Medium wide-body 14% $10B Large wide-body 7%

19 Southeast Asia will need 3,750 new airplanes valued at $550 billion Airplane deliveries: 3, Market value: $550 billion ,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Regional jets 2% 2,860 Singleaisle 76% 510 Small wide-body 14% 250 Medium wide-body 7% 40 Large wide-body 1% $<5B Regional jets <1% $310B Singleaisle 56% $140B Small wide-body 25% $90B Medium wide-body 16% $20B Large wide-body 2%

20 Oceania traffic varies by market RPKs (billions) Within Oceania 2014 traffic Added traffic Annual growth % 4.5% Southeast Asia 4.6% China 6.3% Middle East North America 3.5% 6.3% Oceania Traffic Growth: 4.6% Northeast Asia Africa 5.7% 4.1% Oceania GDP Growth: 2.6% South America 7.2%

21 Southeast Asia traffic varies by market RPKs (billions) Within Southeast Asia 2014 traffic Added traffic Annual growth % 7.7% China 7.4% Northeast Asia 4.3% Middle East Europe South Asia Oceania North America 5.9% 5.6% 4.6% 8.9% 4.6% Southeast Asia Traffic Growth: 6.5% Southeast Asia Growth: 4.6% Africa 7.4%

22 Half of new deliveries to Oceania will be for replacement Units 1, Growth 47% Replacement 53% 40 Retained fleet 2034

23 Three-quarters of new deliveries to Southeast Asia will be for growth Units 4,500 4,000 4,120 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 2,850 Growth 76% 3,750 1,500 1,270 1, Replacement 24% 370 Retained fleet 2034

24 Oceania airlines business model shifts 23% % 33% 38% 43% % 26% 24% 22% SOURCE: Boeing CMOs LCC Charter/IT Broad Network Other Networks

25 Southeast Asian airlines business model shifts 29% % 43% 34% 46% % 22% 23% 23% SOURCE: Boeing CMOs LCC Charter/IT Broad Network Other Networks

26 Product strategy

27 Exceptionally well positioned for the future Superior value, efficient market coverage 500 Current Boeing Future Boeing ER 777-9X 400 Seats ER X Seats ER ER MAX MAX MAX MAX Boeing Standard Rules seat counts

28 737 MAX

29 777X

30 787 Dreamliner

31 Substantial, balanced backlog validates Boeing s product strategy Backlog by value ($B) 747 ME, Central & S. Asia Leasing, Gov't & BBJ Region Europe & Russia North America China, East & SE Asia L. America & Africa Asia Pacific Backlog = 5,689 aircraft Value = $431 billion Large 1% Twin- Aisle 54% Model Single- Aisle 45%

32 Things to remember Commercial aviation will continue to be a growth industry Single-aisle fuelling forecast Boeing product strategy is right for today and the future

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