PRESENTED BY: AL WANG SENIOR MANAGER, FORECASTING & MARKET PLANNING

Transcription

1 EXPERT INSIGHTS AND RELIABLE INFORMATION FOR THE AVIATION INDUSTRY 28th Annual Commercial Aviation Industry Suppliers Conference March 3-5, 2014 AIRCRAFT DELIVERY AND RETIREMENT FORECASTS PRESENTED BY: AL WANG SENIOR MANAGER, FORECASTING & MARKET PLANNING Proceedings Sponsored by:

2 Airline Industry and Forecast Update Pratt & Whitney SpeedNews Aviation Industry Suppliers Conference March 2014 Pratt & Whitney Proprietary This document is the property of United Technologies Corporation (UTC). You may not possess, use, copy or disclose this document or any information in it, for any purpose, including without limitation to design, manufacture or repair parts, or obtain FAA or other government approval to do so, without UTC s express written permission. Neither receipt nor possession of this document alone, from any source, constitutes such permission. Possession, use, copying or disclosure by anyone without UTC s express written permission is not authorized and may result in criminal and/ or civil liability. Mar

3 World GDP 2.7% growth between ($2010, Trillions) Source: Global Insight 2/14 Africa Mideast L. America N. America Europe Asia/Pac CAGR CAGR 4.2% 4.7% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.0% 3.2% 1.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.9% Mar

4 (% CAGR, ) 8.3% GDP Growth By Aggregate CAGR since % 4.9% 1.5% 1.2% 2.8% 0.7% 2.7% 2.0% 0.4% Source: Global Insight 2/14 Mar

5 OECD Business Leading Indicators (Composite Leading Indicators Index) 104 Jan Jan-2014 Long term trend = *Nov **Dec 2013 Source: Organization for Economic Co operation and Development (OECD) Mar

6 World Unemployment Rates For December Unemployment Rate (%) YOY Change 0.4% 2.0% 1.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% Source: Organization for Economic Co operation and Development (OECD) Mar

7 Airline Association Traffic Reports Steady traffic growth 20% 15% (% change year over year) Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) Association of European Airlines (AEA) Association of Latin American Airlines (ALTA) U.S. Airlines For America (A4A) Arab Air Carriers Association 10% 5% 0% 5% Mar

8 Load Factors Mixed picture in (Y O Y change in load factor (percentage points) Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) Association of European Airlines (AEA) Association of Latin American Airlines (ALTA) U.S. Airlines For America (A4A) Mar

9 U.S. Carrier Yields Pacific yields continue to struggle 15% 10% 5% (% change yield ( /RPM)) Domestic Atlantic Latin Pacific 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: Participating A4A carriers Mar

10 Oil and Jet Fuel Pricing History Fuel prices relatively stable 150 ($/barrel) Jet fuel Brent Oil Y O Y $126 5% $110 4% 60 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Data through 24 Feb Source: EIA Mar

11 2013 Net Results ($M) Another banner year for North America AMERICAS ASIA/PAC EU/ME/AFR AEROMEXICO AIR CANADA* AIR TRANSAT^^^ ALASKA* ALLEGIANT AMERICAN* COPA DELTA* ($500) $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $(57) $85 $309 $383 $92 $1,164 $428 $2,699 AIRASIA** AIRASIA X ANZ^ ASIANA GARUDA ($1,000) ($500) $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3, ($1,000) ($500) $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 AER LINGUS AEROFLOT AIR FRANCE* 478 COMAIR^ CROATIA 23 0 EASYJET^^ 642 HAWAIIAN JETBLUE REPUBLIC SKYWEST $47 $168 $27 $59 MAS QANTAS^ ETHIOPIAN^ FINNAIR JAZEERA SOUTHWEST* $804 SHANDONG 108 NORWEGIAN 41 SPIRIT* UAL/CAL* US AIR* VOLARIS* $28 $178 $787 $1,084 THAI V AUSTRALIA^ SAS THOMAS COOK^^ TNT WESTJET $261 XIAMEN 245 TUI^^ 103 *Excluding non recurring and non cash items **Operating result ***FY thru March 2014 ^FY through June 2013 ^^FY through September 2013 Mar

12 Cumulative Industry Profits Back in the black $60,000 (Cumulative Net Profit ($M)) $54,461 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 -$10,000 -$20,000 Source: ATA/IATA/ICAO Mar

13 Scheduled Capacity By Airline Region 3.8% CAGR since 2008 (ASKs, Billions) Africa Mideast L. America CAGR 3.7% 6.9% 14.1% N. America Europe Asia/Pac 0.0% 2.1% 5.5% Note: Includes only scheduled passenger mainline and regional operations Source: OAG FEB 2014 Mar

14 Scheduled Capacity By Airline Type Growth inversely proportional to size (ASKs, Billions) Regional Low Cost CAGR 8.0% 7.6% Small/Med Network Large Network 6.0% 1.2% Note: Includes only scheduled passenger mainline and regional operations Source: OAG FEB 2014 Mar

15 LCC Capacity By Region Asia is catching up to NA and Europe (ASKs, Billions) Africa Mideast L. America Asia/Pac CAGR 2.9% 33.3% 20.7% 16.3% Note: Includes only scheduled passenger mainline and regional operations Source: OAG FEB 2014 Europe N. America 5.0% 2.9% Mar

16 Backlog Summary 10,910 passenger aircraft total, >95 seats Single Aisle 8,490 a/c Widebody 2,420 a/c 737MAX % C % MC % CS 201 2% E JET/E % A320NEO % A % A % % A % 737NG % A % % % % Source: AVWIN/FLEETPC Mar

17 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 (# Aircraft, >95 seats) Active Fleet Backlog Backlog History Backlog catching up to fleet % 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, % Source: AVWIN/FLEETPC Mar

18 2013 World Traffic Outlook 7.9% 6.6% 5.6% 5.0% 5.8% 6.6% 6.4% 5.3% 5.1% 4.6% 2.2% -3.1% E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E January 2014 P&W estimate < Mar

19 Aircraft Delivery Forecast Summary 34,230 Total Commercial Passenger Aircraft, MED/LONG-RANGE 24% % % > % % % % % SHORT-RANGE 76% % Commercial passenger aircraft including regional jets; excludes freighters, business jet variants, and turboprops Mar

20 Deliveries By Region, L. AMERICA % MIDEAST % CIS % AFRICA % ASIA/PAC % N. AMERICA % EUROPE % Commercial passenger aircraft including regional jets; excludes freighters, business jet variants, and turboprops Mar

21 Summary U.S. E.U. REST OF WORLD AIRLINES FORECASTS Mar

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