I AO Chi h e i f E c E on o o n m o i m c i A na n ly l s y is i & P o P l o ilc i y y Se S ctio i n

Transcription

1 Narjess Teyssier ICAO Chief Economic Analysis & Policy Section Montréal 29 September 2010

2 Content Data Trends Forecasts Impact on stakeholders

3 Monitoring air transport development: Statistics, analysis and forecasts MARKET ANALYSES FORECASTING STATISTICS!"#"$$#

4 Regional traffic overview for 2009 North America Traffic: -3.9% Capacity: -4.7% Load Factor: +0.7 Pt Latin America Traffic: 0.9% Capacity: 2.2% Load Factor: -0.9 Pt Europe Traffic: -3.9% Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: +0.3 Pt Middle East Traffic: 9.1% Capacity: 11.9% Load Factor: -1.9 Pt Asia Pacific Traffic: -0.2% Capacity: -0.9% Load Factor: +0.6 Pt World Traffic: -2.0% Capacity: -2.2% Load Factor: +0.2 Pt Africa Traffic: -3.9% Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: -0.7 Pt

5 Low Cost Carriers progression B i l T l r i a o f n f s i c R P K !" LCCs Non Scheduled carriers Legacy carriers

6 Market shares* achieved International traffic represents 60% of the total passenger traffic International passenger traffic** Domestic passenger traffic** Africa * North America 3% Africa * 17% 1% Asia Pacific 30% Middle East 10% Latin America 4% Asia Pacific 25% Europe 41% North America 55% Middle East 1% Europe 8% Latin America 5% * Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region **Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometre

7 Traffic recovery started in 2010, despite the volcanic ash impact World North America Middle East Latin America Europe Asia-Pacific Africa Regional traffic* growth forecasts 4.3% Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast RPKs Growth in % *Traffic of airlines registered in each region expressed in RPKs Source: ICAO average growth

8 Forecasting : basis of any effective planning ""%%$ & '()*! +,,-.$/"%"$! %#/%" 0"$ $""$!"!! "#1!&"$%!!$$%"$$!&!"#$/2/""%"$ &/%(#"$ $! &+,,""%&!"!%"%"$$$# "#" #(!#%& &!%!! $&&$#"3

9 Air travel demand drivers State of global economy (GDP growth) Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields) Traffic & yield growth in % Traffic growth Real GDP growth Sep Real Yield growth GDP growth in % Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight

10 Air transport vs Economic growth : In d e x B a s e Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight World Real GDP World Passenger traffic World Cargo traffic

11 Factors promoting air traffic growth &!$ % #!$! "

12 ICAN: ICAO forum for liberalization

13 Air transport conducted under liberal arrangements ' (( ) 41!" 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Number of frequencies Number of country-pair routes!& 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%!" 0% %

14 Liberalization: a necessary frame for Low Cost Carriers development Number of LCCs : 13 Deregulation : 1978 Network carriers 79% LCCs 21% Number of LCCs : 10 Deregulation : in progress Network carriers 76% LCCs 24% Network carriers 79% LCCs 21% Number of LCCs : 48 Network carriers 86% LCCs 14% Deregulation : Number of LCCs : 33 Network carriers 91% LCCs 9% Deregulation : accelerating Number of LCCs (Africa and Middle East) : 10 Deregulation : uneven Source: ICAO LCCs development by region

15 Toward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines mergers and acquisitions Most well-known Non Aligned airlines 3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic

16 The new ICAO forecasting methodology * "+ (,, ( " -, "(. /" " ) (!(! ) " "("(.!. " 0. ( "( ) ("( (. 1(!. "2 ( 0) " ", 3.( 3. 2 )( " 8 (( " ' 9:; )! (( " ( 3(( $, (! 0( " )". <! #, ( <

17 Emerging markets lead the recovery Favoring the expansion of some regional air travel markets Real GDP growth change in % Economic Stimulus plan China: 586 B$ India: 8.1 B$ China & India lead Emerging Markets and the BRIC in Real GDP growth Source: IHS Global Insight, Sep 2010 *BRIC: Brazil Russia India China Real GDP growth change in %

18 Top ten traffic flows in Year Growth % % World RPKs 2.6% 15.0% 7.9% 10.7% 4.3% 7.4% 2.6% 5.7% 6.7% 4.1% 5.3% 3.6% 7.8% 3.5% 5.0% 3.3% 5.9% 3.1% 9.0% 2.9%

19 Long-term traffic forecast results Forecasts History High Scenario Most Likely scenario = Low scenario World traffic in Billion RPKs Source: ICAO =

20 Regional* passenger traffic forecasts Pax Traffic International (%) Domestic (%) Total (%) Region Growth Share Growth Share North America Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America Africa Middle East WORLD Growth Share *Traffic of airlines registered in each region expressed in RPKs growth and market shares

21 Aircraft movements forecast methodology Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating capacities and average distance stage length : Available seat-kilometres = Aircraft-kilometres = Revenue passengerkilometres Average load factor Available seatkilometres Average aircraft seating capacity Aircraft-kilometres Aircraft movements = Average stage length

22 2030 Aircraft movements forecast World total aircraft movements in 2030: Africa, 2.0% North America, 32.3% Asia Pacific, 31.7% Middle East, 2.9% Latin America, 7.7% Europe, 23.3%

23 Strong backlog for the major aircraft manufacturers 3000 Orders and Deliveries of Boeing and Airbus, N u m b e r o f A irc ra ft Source: aircraft manufacturers Deliveries Orders Deliveries Forecasts 979 Need to monitor closely any potential impact on Safety as 60% of aircraft replacement are for growth

24 Consolidating various ICAO data sources 2008 State Letter requesting current and projected number of Pilots, Mechanics and Air Traffic controllers, plus corresponding Training Capacities SAAQ of ICAOs Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme (USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, qualifications and training ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form D Fleet and Personnel Final consolidated results obtained through reconciliation of discrepancies and variances Check accuracy of consolidated reported data through the personnel/fleet ratio methodology *SAAQ: State Aviation Activity Questionnaire

25 2010 Licensed aviation personnel population NORTH AMERICA ICAO Pilots Mechanics ATCOs EUROPE ICAO Pilots Mechanics ATCOs MIDDLE EAST ICAO Pilots 9202 Mechanics ATCOs 1996 ASIA PACIFIC ICAO Pilots Mechanics ATCOs Source: ICAO LATIN AMERICA ICAO Pilots Mechanics ATCOs 2047 AFRICA ICAO Pilots 4258 Mechanics ATCOs 1764 WORLD ICAO Pilots Mechanics ATCOs % of the States have a mandatory retirement age of 65 years for pilots

26 Future pilots requirements* vs training capacities Most likely scenario North America Pilots Needs Capacity ICAO Europe Pilots Capacity ICAO Middle East Pilots Capacity ICAO Latin America Pilots capacity ICAO Africa Pilots Capacity ICAO Asia / Pacific Pilots Capacity ICAO Pilots World Capacity Source: ICAO preliminary figures ICAO *Estimate of average annual needs for 2010 to 2030 period based on various world fleet categories;: Regional and business jets, Turboprops, Single aisle, Twin aisles and Freighters Training capacity is based on current figures without any incremental effect due to planned additional capacities

27 ICAO vision for Next Generation Aviation Professionals The need for reliable statistics The «Best and the Brightest» Facilitating the use of competency-based approaches Removing regulatory obstacles A coordinating mechanism is required

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