Steve Hahn. Current Market Outlook. Director, Japan Enterprise Technology Programs. Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2014.
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1 Current Market Outlook 2015 Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2014 The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or. guarantee of performance. The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Steve Hahn Director, Japan Enterprise Technology Programs November 2015 July 2014
2 Agenda Recent market performance, trends 20-year traffic and airplane forecast Product strategy
3 Since 2010 Global economic growth rate below average Passenger market resilient, growing Cargo market recovering nicely Airlines managing better than ever before NOTE: Annual growth rates (%) and cumulative profit ($B)
4 Growth driven by emerging economies, LCCs Market much more diverse, balanced Continued strong replacement demand New airplanes, capabilities opening new markets
5 20-year traffic and airplane forecast
6 Twenty-year traffic and product forecast All regions of the world 185 airlines / groups 63 traffic flows All jets 30 seats and above No turbo props No business jets Freighters Scheduled and nonscheduled flying
7 reca Market liberalization Airplane capabilities Environment High speed rail Fuel price Emerging markets Airline strategies & business models Infrastructure Economic growth Current Market Outlook
8 Resilient, growing market expected to continue 5% long-term growth rate 6.0 RPKs (trillions) Above trend since RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers SOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic
9 Macroeconomics Trade GDP level GDP per capita Labor force Value of service Network structure Infrastructure Business model Regulatory environment Demand
10 2014 to 2034 World economy (GDP) 3.1% Number of airline passengers 4.0% Airline traffic (RPK) 4.9% Cargo traffic (RTK) 4.7%
11 ~6% traffic growth (RPKs) +180 million passengers +900 more airplanes (passenger) SOURCE: IATA and BCA Analysis
12 Market fragmentation drives growth Air Travel Growth Frequency Growth Nonstop Markets World Average Airplane Size 0.5 SOURCE: August OAG Index 1994=1.00
13 It s what passengers want, not bigger airplanes 14% New direct routes 78% 8% Additional frequencies Larger airplane size on existing routes
14 Airplane deliveries: 38, New airplane deliveries by region ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,490 Regional jets 7% 26,730 Singleaisle 70% 4,770 Small wide-body 13% 3,520 Medium wide-body 9% 540 Large wide-body 1% Region Airplanes Asia 14,330 North America 7,890 Europe 7,310 Middle East 3,180 Latin America 3,020 Africa 1,170 C.I.S. 1,150 World Total 38,050 8% 19% 3% 8% 3% 38,050 21% 38%
15 Airplane deliveries: $5.6 trillion New airplane values by region ,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, $100B Regional jets 2% $2,770B Singleaisle 50% $1,250B Small wide-body 22% $1,220B Medium wide-body 22% $230B Large wide-body 4% Region Airplanes Asia $2,200B North America $940B Europe $1,050B Middle East $730B Latin America $350B Africa $160B C.I.S. $140B World Total $5,570B 13% 19% 6% 3% 3% $5.6T 17% 39%
16 Global fleet will double Units 45,000 43,560 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 21,600 20,000 15,000 10,000 21,960 Growth 58% 16,090 Replacement 42% 38,050 5,000 5,510 Retained fleet
17 Western jets retired with >90 seats, excluding hull losses Widebody Single-aisle SOURCE: Flight Global Ascend
18 65% Medium wide-body Large wide-body % 3% 9% 2% 6% 12% Regional jet 13% 11% Single-aisle 21,600 Small wide-body airplanes 43,560 airplanes 70% SOURCE: Ascend & Boeing CMO
19 Air cargo market Year-over-year RTK growth 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 SOURCE: IATA Carrier Tracker (industry international scheduled freight) and A4A US domestic cargo traffic
20 New freighter deliveries: Airplane units Large >80 tonnes 70% 270 Medium tonnes 30% 0 Standard <45 tonnes Market value: $290 billion Market value $230B Large >80 tonnes 79% $60B Medium tonnes 21% $0B Standard <45 tonnes
21 100% Share of fleet Delivery units 80% 60% 40% Large production >80 tonnes Wide-body conversions tonnes Medium wide-body production tonnes ,340 1,020 20% 0% 2014 Freighters 1, Freighters 2,930 Standard-body conversions <45 tonnes to 2034 Freighters
22 Product strategy
23 Superior value, efficient market coverage Current Boeing Future Boeing X ER X Seats ER Seats ER MAX ER 737 MAX MAX MAX Boeing Standard Rules seat counts
24 Backlog by value ($B) 747 ME, Central & S. Asia Leasing, Gov't & BBJ Region Europe & Russia North America China, East & SE Asia L. America & Africa Asia Pacific Backlog = 5,715 aircraft Value = $435 billion 777 Large 1% Twin- Aisle 54% 787 Model Single- Aisle 45%
25 Things to remember Strong, growing market being driven by expansion Single-aisle fuelling forecast Boeing product strategy is right for today and the future
26 For more information, please visit our CMO website:
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