Worldwide Market Forecast ( ) Prompt Report

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1 Worldwide Market Forecast (2018 ) Prompt Report June 2018 Marketing Group Japan Aircraft Development Corporation

2 Outline of the Worldwide Market Forecast Jets and turboprop Passenger jet 20 seats and above Passenger turboprop 15 seats and above Jet freighter All regions of the world 13 regions (passenger) North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa, Japan, China, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Oceania and CIS 7 regions (freighter) North America, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific and CIS Scheduled and non-scheduled flight Top-down analysis 2

3 World Economic Forecast by Region Global Economy (Real GDP) will grow by 2.79% per annum. ( It was 2.84% in the last year data.) World Asia/Pacific North America Europe Breakdown of Europe Westen Europe Eastern Europe 2.00% 2.23% 1.72% 1.81% 1.62% 1.71% 2.79% 2.87% 2.73% 3.14% 3.89% 4.37% Breakdown of Asia/Pacific Japan Oceania China North East Asia South East Asia South Asia 0.86% 0.75% 2.43% 2.08% 3.01% 3.86% 4.81% 4.39% 4.37% 5.86% 6.61% 8.79% Middle East 3.40% 3.93% Latin America Africa CIS 1.94% 2.97% 2.46% 3.43% 4.15% 3.69% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Real GDP Growth Rate per annum Source : IHS 3

4 Effect of Crude oil price on RPK The oil prices will have much effect on a growth of RPK. JADC have made a moderate case and estimated RPK. Average Spot Price (US$/bbl.) Brent Crude Oil Price (Average Spot Price) JADC (1.3%.p.a) RPK ( 10 9 ) Source : EIA EIA High Oil Price Case EIA Reference Case JADC EIA Low Oil Price Case Effect of Crude oil price on RPK (via Yield only) (via Yield only) Δ(Log RPK) = a Δ(Log GDP) + b Δ(Log Yield) EIA Low JADC EIA Ref EIA High '17 '37 Ave.Growth Rate 4.6% 4.5% 4.3% 3.9% % 4

5 Trend of Retirement (Passenger Jets) Averaged age of retirement is 23.2 in, which is 5 years younger than 27.8 in Recently, a new crowd is emerging near

6 Air Passenger Traffic and Fleet Forecast 6

7 (trillion RPKs) [RPK] World Passenger Traffic Forecast World Passenger Traffic will grow by 4.5% per annum. 20 Actual Forecast times 8 5.0% p.a % p.a times

8 [RPK] Passenger Traffic Forecast by Region ( ) Europe, North America and China will constitute three pillars in RPK of the world. Asia-Pacific Breakdown of Asia/Pacific (China) 5.6% 5.3% (Southeast Asia) 5.5% (South Asia) (Oceania) (Northeast Asia) 3.2% 2.7% 7.6% Traffic in Increase from 2018 to (Japan) Europe Breakdown of Europe (West Europe) 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% (East Europe) 7.3% North America 3.2% Middle East 6.0% Latin America 4.8% CIS 3.2% Africa 3.8% RPK (Trillion) 8

9 Middle East 10% Japan China [RPK] Comparison of Shares by Region Asia-Pacific and Middle East Airlines will have more market shares. 3% 14% Latin America Africa 2% Oceania 3% 3% South Asia 7% Southeast Asia 5% 3% Share Others (20%) Asia-Pacific (32%) CIS 3% Northeast Asia North America 25% Europe (25%) 1% East Europe West Europe 23% Middle East Japan Africa 13% 2% 17% China Latin America 2% Oceania CIS Share 6% 2% Others (23%) Asia-Pacific (38%) 2% 6% South Asia North America 18% 9% Southeast Asia 7.7 trillion RPK 18.6 trillion RPK Europe (22%) 19% West Europe 2% East Europe 2% Northeast Asia 9

10 Load Factor (%) 2010 US cent/rpk Parameters used for World Jet Fleet Forecast Real Yield Forecast ACTUAL West Europe World North America FORECAST Passenger Load Factor Annual Growth Rate (%) North America -1.8% -0.6% West Europe -3.0% -0.6% World -2.2% -0.6% 1997 N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA PACIFIC Japan WORLD World average real passenger yield will decline by 0.6% per annum. World average passenger load factor will approach 83% in. Category Size(seats) Aircraft Turbo DHC6-400, Do228 prop ATR42/72, DHC8-400, MA (ATR92) Jet CRJ200/440, ERJ135/140/145 CRJ700/900/1000, ARJ21, SSJ100, EMB170/175E2/190E2, MRJ70/90 CS100, EMB195E2 A318, B A319ceo/neo, A320ceo/neo, B737MAX-7/-8, CS300, C919 A321ceo/neo, B737MAX-9/-10 B757 A /-900, B787-8/-9 A , B /-400 A /-1000, B777, B A B747 >500 A380 *Aircraft are segmented according to number of seats based on 1-class for turboprop and regional jet, 2-class for narrow body and 3-class for wide body. 10

11 World Passenger Jet Fleet Forecast (corrected) Industry will need 33,500 passenger jet airplanes in the next 20 years, valued at $ 5.1 trillion. 40,000 39,867 30,000 Growth 17,530 No. of Airplanes 22,337 20,000 52% Replacement 16,000 New Deliveries 33,530 10,000 48% Retained 6,

12 No. of Airplanes 18,000 16,000 Regional Jet World Passenger Jet Fleet Forecast by Seat category Primary market is found in Seats class. Narrow body Jet 16,930 Wide body Jet 14,000 12,000 Existing New Delivery Retained 11,845 Total Year-End: 22,337 Year-End: 39, New Deliveries: 33,530 10,000 8,000 7,650 6,000 11,845 13,056 5,375 4,000 2, ,255 6,850 3,293 4,887 2,250 2,393 1,888 2,223 1,638 3,797 2,794 3, , ,789 2,393 2,223 1, Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Over 400 Seats

13 N.of Airplanes 18,000 16,000 14,000 World Passenger Jet Fleet Forecast by Region Europe, North America and China constitute three pillars for the world market. 16,474 Total Fleet Year End: Year End: Deliveries: 22,337 39,867 33,530 12,000 10,000 8,000 7,564 7, Existing New Delivery New Delivery Retained Retained 6,000 4,000 2, ,654 3,131 1,003 1, North America Europe Asia Pacific Japan China North east Asia South east Asia South Asia Oceania Middle East Latin America Africa CIS 13

14 5,000 World Turboprop Fleet Forecast Industry will need 2,700 passenger turboprop airplanes in the next 20 years, valued at $57 billion. 4,000 3,404 Growth 111 4% 3,515 No. of Airplanes 3,000 2,000 Replacement 2,569 96% New Deliveries 2,680 1,000 Retained

15 No. of Airplanes 2,000 World Turboprop Fleet Forecast by Seat category Largest market is found in seat category. 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Total Year-End: 3,404 Year-End: 3, New Deliveries 2,680 1, ,175 1, ,662 New Delivery New Retained Delivery Existing Retained Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats 15

16 N.of Airplanes 1,600 1,400 1,200 World Turboprop Fleet Forecast by Region The demand will be widespread in many regions Total Fleet Year End: 3,404 Year End: 3, Deliveries: 2,680 1, New Delivery New Delivery ExistingRetained Retained North America Europe Asia Pacific North South Japan China east east South Oceania Asia Asia Asia Middle East 444 Latin America Africa CIS 16

17 Air Cargo Traffic and Freighter Fleet Forecast 17

18 [RTK] World Cargo Traffic Forecast World cargo traffic will grow by 4.1% per annum 18

19 [RTK] World Cargo Traffic Forecast by Region Slow down in Middle East region, Accelerate in North America. 19

20 [RTK] Cargo Traffic Forecast by Market Asia Pacific will be the focal of Cargo Traffic. 20

21 [RTK] Comparison of Shares by Region Market share of Asia-Pacific and Middle East Airlines will increase. 2.2 billion RTKs 5.1 billion RTKs 21

22 Parameters Used for Freighter Fleet Forecast World average real cargo yield will decline by 0.7% annually. Lower-hold load factor will increase faster than freighter load factor. Narrowbody (<50 tonnes) Medium Widebody (50-70 tonnes) Large (>70 tonnes) BAe-146 DC DC-10-30/40 CRJ100/ MD-11 DC DC-9 A MD-80 A310 A350 MD-90 A330 A IL-76 An A320 A321 Tu

23 Jet Freighter Fleet Forecast New deliveries will be 2,524 planes. (New 1,048, Converted 1,476) 23

24 Jet Freighter Fleet Forecast by Size Category The number of large size freighters will be increased. (777, 747, A350, A380 etc.) 24

25 Jet Freighter Fleet Forecast by Region Freighter fleet of Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern Airlines will grow 2.6 time. 25

26 Summary World Economic Growrh (GDP) Growth measures Sales ( US$billion) 2.8%p.a. Passenger Demand (billion RPKs) 7,737 18, %p.a. Passenger Jet Airplane Fleet 22,337 39, %p.a. New Passenger Jet Airplane Deliveries 33,530 5,137 Cargo Demand (billion FTKs) %p.a. Jet Freighter Fleet 1,864 2, %p.a. New Jet Freighter Deliveries 1, Total New Jet Airplane Deliveries 34,578 5,490 Passenger Turboprop Airplane Fleet 3,404 3, %p.a. New Passenger Turboprop Airplane Deliveries 2, New Engine Deliveries 84,021 1,237 26

27 For more information, visit our website: The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements made herein do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty, or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Japan Aircraft Development Corporation. 27

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