MRO Market Update & Industry Trends

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1 January 25-26, 2017 Cancun, Mexico Presented by: Jonathan M. Berger Vice President ICF MRO Market Update & Industry Trends 0

2 Today s Agenda Fleet & MRO Forecast 2016: What a long strange trip year it s been 2017: The year aviation & aerospace blinked 1 1

3 MRO Forecast 2 2

4 The current commercial air transport fleet consists of under 28K aircraft; over half are narrowbody aircraft Turboprop Regional Jet 14% 2016 Global Commercial Air Transport Fleet 13% 27,957 Aircraft Narrowbody Jet 54% North America Latin America 30% 7% 5% Africa 27,957 Aircraft Asia Pacific 28% Widebody Jet 19% Middle East 5% 25% Europe By Aircraft Type By Global Region Source: CAPA

5 The combination of strong air travel demand and the need to replace ageing aircraft will drive fleet growth at a healthy 3.2% annually # Aircraft 40,000 35,000 30,000 25, Year Global Air Transport Fleet Growth Africa Middle East Latin America Europe Asia Pacific North America 28,000 5% 8% 38,100 6% 8% 23% CAGR 4.1% 5.0% 3.4% 2.4% 20,000 25% 15,000 10,000 28% 33% 4.8% 5,000 30% 25% 1.3% % Avg. Source: ICF analysis: CAPA

6 Current commercial air transport MRO demand is $67.6B; Asia is now larger than North America and Europe in market size Airframe Line 17% 2016 Commercial Air Transport Global MRO Demand Modifications 14% 8% $67.6B Engines 40% Europe Latin America Middle East 26% 8% Africa 6% 4% $67.6B 27% North America 22% Components 30% Asia Pacific By MRO Segment By Global Region Source: ICF analysis; Forecast in 2016 $USD, exclusive of inflation 5 5

7 The global MRO market is expected to grow by 4.1% per annum to over $100B by 2026 Engine and component MRO markets remain the largest segments Modifications market will see the strongest growth (e.g. interiors, connectivity) Airframe market slows due to reduced man-hour intensity and increased check intervals as new fleets are introduced 10 Year Global Commercial Air Transport MRO Demand Growth $USD Billions $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Modifications Airframe Line Component Engine $67.6B 14% 17% 22% 40% $100.6B 12% 16% 22% 41% CAGR 5.2% 2.8% 3.2% 4.2% 4.5% 4.1% Avg. Source: ICF analysis; Forecast in 2016 $USD, exclusive of inflation 6 6

8 The current Latin American fleet consists of over 2,100 aircraft; with narrowbody aircraft making up more than 50% of the installed base Turboprop 23% 2016 Latin American Commercial Air Transport Fleet Regional Jet Widebody Jet 15% 2,099 Aircraft 9% Narrowbody Jet 52% Panama Venezuela Other 5% 6% 6% Chile 20% 2,099 Aircraft 8% 11% Colombia 25% 19% Brazil Mexico By Aircraft Type By Country Source: CAPA

9 The Latin American MRO market is expected to grow to approx. $6.4B by 2026, at 5.5% per annum Modifications is the fastest growing MRO segment in Latin America MRO spend on widebodies in Latin America will nearly double by 2026 as the fleet increases by 56% 10-Year Global Latin American MRO Demand Growth $USD Billions $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 Modifications Airframe Line Component Engine $3.8B 7% 13% 19% 25% 37% $6.4B 8% 11% 16% 23% 42% CAGR 7.2% 4.0% 3.7% 4.7% 7.0% $ % Avg. Source: ICF analysis; Forecast in 2016 $USD, exclusive of inflation 8 8

10 2016: What a long strong trip year it s been 9 9

11 Driven by low fuel costs and consolidation, the global airline industry achieved record profitability of over $35B USD in was a historic year for airline profitability $USD Billions $40 $30 $20 Global Airline Profitability, F $35.6B Africa, ($0.8B) Latin America, $0.2B Middle East, $0.3B Asia Pacific, $6.3B $10 $0 Europe, $5.6B North America, $18.1B -$10 -$20 -$30 Source: IATA, ICF analysis 10 10

12 However, record profitability has been largely limited to carriers in North America but many airlines continue to struggle 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Global Airline EBIT Margin by Region 12.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.5% 3.4% 2.9% 2.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% -1.8% -4.7% F 3.0% 1.0% 0.7% -0.4% -0.9% -3.6% Source: IATA, ICF Analysis 11 11

13 Follow the Money: Airlines are spending their hard earned profits in three primary areas Debt Repayments 16% Airline Profit Spend Analysis Stock Buy- Back & Dividends 26% 1. Labor ~ 20%: Profit sharing Wage increases 2. Capex ~ 38%: Fleet renewal & cabin upgrades Facilities, offices, lounges Equity partner investments Other capex 10% Investors, 42% Capex, 38% Labor, 20% Profit Sharing 15% 3. Investors ~ 42%: Stock buy-backs Dividends Debt repayment Equity Investments 5% Fleet 23% Wage Increases 5% Source: Company Reports, ICF Analysis 12 12

14 Aviation is experiencing a new golden age of aircraft cabin interiors MRO modification market growth drivers include: Latest lie-flat seats are now the minimum standard Premium economy Wi-fi, on-board connectivity Capacity (ASM/K) increase ( Cabin Densification ) Coming soon: ADS-B Mod program Commercial Air Transport Modifications Forecast $USD Billions $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 $0.2 $0.3 $0.3 $0.6 $0.8 $2.8 Modifications demand includes labor and material spend *Passenger-To-Freighter Conversions **Airworthiness Directives / Service Bulletins Source: ICF analysis, constant 2016 US$ Cabin Connectivity AD/SB** PTF Conversions* Painting Avionics Upgrades Interiors $5.1B $8.5B $0.4 $0.4 $0.5 $0.9 $1.4 $ CAGR 5.1% 2.9% 3.6% 4.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% Avg

15 Amazon is very well positioned to lead a major disruption of the air cargo industry $B USD $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Amazon s Growing Revenue & Shipping Costs Amazon Quarterly Revenue 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Shipping Costs as a Percentage of Revenue Source: Amazon SEC Filings 14 14

16 Latin American Aviation Outlook 15 15

17 The good news After a half decade of economic decline, Latin America is once again poised for growth in % 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Latin American GDP Growth 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Note: All GDP Growth are calculated based on constant price (nation currency) Source: IMF Economic Outlook April 2016, ICF analysis 16 16

18 In 2017, while most countries in Latin America will see modest, but steady economic growth, the big increases will come from Brazil and Argentina 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% F 2017F Brazil 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% United States Note: All GDP Growth are calculated based on constant price (nation currency) Source: IMF Economic Outlook April 2016, ICF analysis 17 17

19 Latin America is in the midst of an LCC Renaissance LCC Market Share (seats offered) by Global Region 60% Copa restructuring Copa Colombia into new ultra-lcc called Wingo VivaColombia launches subsidiary Viva Air in Peru Flybondi plans to launch ultra-lcc in Argentina in 2017 Chilean based Sky Airline switching its business model to ultra-lcc 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 38% 49% 9% Domestic Intra-regional International 24% 21% 20% 20% 4% 30% 13% 7% 6% 40% 6% 3% Mexican LCC Volaris announces new subsidiary in San Jose, Cost Rica Source: OAG, Airbus, ICF Analysis 18 18

20 There continues to be significant interest and external financial investment in Latin American carriers Brazil United States Source: ICF analysis 19 19

21 2017: The year aviation & aerospace blinked 20 20

22 Commercial aircraft OEM production backlog remains at historical highs Order Backlog Commercial Aircraft OEM Production Backlog Backlog/ % Active Fleet 16,000 70% Emerging market growth 14,000 60% Very low interest rates 12,000 50% Previously high oil and commodity prices Introduction of new technology aircraft/engines 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 40% 30% 20% 2,000 10% 0 0% Source: CAPA, ICF Analysis 21 21

23 Lower fuel costs appear to be reversing aircraft retirements trends # Retirements 1,200 Commercial Air Transport Annual Aircraft Retirements % Installed Fleet 3.5% Industry Impact: MRO Suppliers - Positive: Increased spend on older airframes & engines Surplus Market - Negative: Reduced part-out feed stock - OEMs: Improved new part sales - Distributors: Improved used part values / pricing - Operators: Increased material costs - PMA Suppliers: Very Positive 1, Average: 203 Retirement as % of installed fleet Average: % 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: CAPA, Airline Monitor, ICF analysis 22 22

24 Four external macroeconomic forces are creating headwinds for global airlines and the broader aerospace & MRO supply chain Increased airline costs: - Aircraft financing - Fuel - Labor - MRO flight hour agreements Growth of Populism/Nationalism & Impact to Global Trade Strengthening US Dollar Downward pressure on global GDP growth Downward pressure on aircraft valuations Potential for increase in aircraft delivery deferrals (backlog risk) Middle East airline titans stressed Advantage = Airbus Source: ICF analysis 23 23

25 January 25-26, 2017 Cancun, Mexico THANK YOU! For questions regarding this presentation, please contact: Jonathan M. Berger Vice President Aerospace & MRO Advisory

26 ICF provides a full range of Aerospace & MRO advisory services Market Research & Analysis Airline Maintenance Benchmarking M&A Commercial Due Diligence OEM Aftermarket Strategy Aviation Asset Valuations & Appraisals MRO Information Technology (IT) Advisory Strategic Sourcing & Supply Chain Mgt. LEAN Continuous Process Improvement Military Aircraft Sustainment 25 25

27 ICF is one of the world s largest and most experienced aviation and aerospace consulting firms Airports Airlines Aerospace & MRO Aircraft Finance 53 years in business (founded 1963) 80+ professional staff Dedicated exclusively to aviation and aerospace Blend of consulting professionals and experienced aviation executives Specialized, focused expertise and proprietary knowledge Broad functional capabilities More than 10,000 private sector and public sector assignments Backed by parent ICF International (2015 revenue: 1.13 billion USD) Global presence offices around the world joined in 2007 joined in 2011 joined in 2012 joined in 2014 New York Boston Washington DC London Singapore Beijing 26

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