TOURISM TRENDS Q3 2017

Transcription

1 TOURISM TRENDS Q3 2017

2 DISCLAIMER AXYS Stckbrking Ltd (ASL) has issued this dcument withut cnsideratin f the investment bjectives, financial situatin r particular needs f any individual recipient. ASL will nt be under any liability fr lss r damage f any kind whatsever arising in cnnectin with the cntents f this dcument. This dcument is nt, and shuld nt be cnstrued as, an ffer t sell r the slicitatin f an ffer t purchase r subscribe fr any investment. This dcument has been based n infrmatin btained frm surces believed t be reliable but which have nt been independently verified. ASL makes n guarantee, representatin r warranty and accepts n respnsibility r liability as t its accuracy r cmpleteness. ASL is a member f the Stck Exchange f Mauritius and is licensed by the Financial Services Cmmissin. 2

3 CONTENTS KEY TAKEWAYS 4 DIVERSIFICATION 5 REVENUE 6 MARGINS 7 PROFITABILITY 8 REFERENCES & AUTHORS 9

4 KEY TAKEWAYS INDUSTRY LEVEL HOTEL SPECIFIC Turist arrivals increased t 309k (+5%) cmpared Mauritian Turism sectr cntinued its recvery t Q3-16 leading t imprved Revenue per Rm (Rev/Rm) Arrivals and Flights nce again shwed crrelatin. Extra flights by SAA and Eurwings appear t have bsted S.African & German arrivals while fewer flights by BA and MK t Shanghai appears t that cntributed t the drp in UK and China arrivals Q3 Turism Receipts per Day (RpVD) at 94 (+1%) remained fairly stable cmpared t last year Maldives Rev/Rm declined further amid supply (rms) grwth utpacing demand (arrivals). Cmpared t Q3-16, Arrivals in Q3-17 increased by 5% while beds capacity increased by 12% As a result, bth Margins and Prfits imprved in Mauritius but declined in Maldives 4

5 DIVERSIFICATION Recvery f dmestic ecnmies within traditinal markets cupled with imprved cnnectivity, led t Eurpe maintaining its dminance with a 54% market share, a +22% dependence which may becme unhealthy shuld the mix becme increasingly geared twards a handful f cuntries. +0% 2% Added flights frm S.Africa & Eurpe bsted arrivals frm Africa (+7%) and 19% Eurpe (+5%), whereas MK trimming flights t China and adding flights t Australia resulted in flat AsiaPac (+0%) arrivals and subsequent further shrinking market 20% share t 19%. Receipts per Visitrs per Day (RpVD) increased marginally t 94 (+2%) and inline its lng-term average (excl. anmalus 2013) f % 26% 50% 54% 54% +5% Receipts per Viz per Day / Arrivals RpVD [ ] Arrivals [k] Q3-09 Q3-10 Q % 25% +7% Eurpe Africa AsiaPac Americas 5

6 MOLI CHSL SCT LUX NMHL* SUN REVENUE PER ROOM MAURITIUS The turism sectr s recvery after several difficult years has allwed hteliers t increase rm rates n the back f higher ccupancy rates This led t a further increase in Rev/Rm fr listed htel grups, except fr LUX wh was impacted by the renvatin wrks at LUX* Grand Gaube MALDIVES CHSL s 8% ann. drp in Rev/Rm t $569 frm s peak f $723, embdies the difficult situatin in Maldives where increased supply f htels is hurting bth rates and ccupancy. Fllwing renvatin wrks in Q3-16, Rev/Rm fr bth LUX and SUN std mechanically higher Rev per rm (Mtius) [ ] Rev per rm (Mdives) [$] 1 2 * Includes Seychelles and Mrcc. NMHL stpped disclsing segmental breakdwn by activity in 2016

7 MOLI SCT NMHL* MARGINS SUN CHSL LUX MAURITIUS All f SUN (in spite f La Pirgue), CHSL (incl. 15-Day clsure f Belle Mare Plage in Q3-16), and MOLI all basted imprved margins in-line with imprved lcal cnditins Op. Prfit Margin EBITDA Margin Althugh psitive, LUX s margins expectedly shrank in-line with refurbishment f its ~200-Rm htel in Grand Gaube MALDIVES CHSL s margins fell substantially reflecting the difficult prevailing cnditins LUX s Operating Cst Incme Rati (CIR) std at 108% in its maiden Q3 pst-renvatin, whereas SUN s Kanuhura whse re-pening was delayed with rates maintained recrded an underwhelming Q Op. Prfit Margin (Mtius) [%] Op. Prfit Margin (Mdives) [%] PAT margin 1 2 * Includes Seychelles and Mrcc. NMHL stpped disclsing segmental breakdwn by activity in 2016

8 MOLI CHSL SCT LUX NMHL* PROFITABILITY MAURITIUS In-line with imprved rates and margins, SUN, CHSL & MOLI increased results by Rs52M, Rs26M & Rs12M respectively LUX impacted by refurb. recrded a Rs24M Op. Prfit EBITDA SUN drp, while SCT (-Rs2M) was hurt by unplanned repairs MALDIVES With Bed Places in resrts grwing 8% ann since 2014, and Arrivals by 4% ann. since 2014 htel grup prfitability is being adversely impacted. CHSL & SUN lsses dubled t Rs60M & Rs88M respectively while LUX lsses std at Rs22M Op. Prfit (Mtius) [Rs M] Op. Prfit (Mdives) [Rs M] * Includes Seychelles and Mrcc. NMHL stpped disclsing segmental breakdwn by activity in 2016 PAT margin

9 REFERENCES & AUTHORS REFERENCES AUTHORS TRADING Statistics Mauritius. <Mnthly Arrivals>. es/default.aspx. Bank f Mauritius. <Mnthly Statistical Bulletin>. Bhavik DESAI Head f Research Alexis CORSON Investment Analyst Fr buying r selling stcks, bnds and ETFs please liaise with: Damien Malliaté r Adlette RIOUX Stck Exchange f Mauritius <Quarterly Accunts>. 9

10 CONTACT US 6 th Flr, Dias Pier Building, Le Caudan Waterfrnt, Caudan, Prt-Luis, (230) research@axys-grup.cm