Hydrology Report. Westside Fire Recovery Project. United States Department of Agriculture. Forest Service. March 2015

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1 Unitd Stats Dpartmnt of Agricultur Forst Srvic March 2015 Klamath National Forst Siskiyou County, California For Information Contact: Zack Mondry WO ACT2 Entrpris Unit

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3 Non-Discrimination Policy Th U.S. Dpartmnt of Agricultur (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customrs, mploys, and applicants for mploymnt on th bass of rac, color, national origin, ag, disability, sx, gndr idntity, rligion, rprisal, and whr applicabl, political blifs, marital status, familial or parntal status, sxual orintation, or all or part of an individual's incom is drivd from any public assistanc program, or protctd gntic information in mploymnt or in any program or activity conductd or fundd by th Dpartmnt. (Not all prohibitd bass will apply to all programs and/or mploymnt activitis.) To Fil an Employmnt Complaint If you wish to fil an mploymnt complaint, you must contact your agncy's EEO Counslor (PDF) within 45 days of th dat of th allgd discriminatory act, vnt, or in th cas of a prsonnl action. Additional information can b found onlin at To Fil a Program Complaint If you wish to fil a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complt th USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found onlin at complaint_filing_cust.html, or at any USDA offic, or call (866) to rqust th form. You may also writ a lttr containing all of th information rqustd in th form. Snd your compltd complaint form or lttr to us by mail at U.S. Dpartmnt of Agricultur, Dirctor, Offic of Adjudication, 1400 Indpndnc Avnu, S.W., Washington, D.C , by fax (202) or mail at program.intak@usda.gov. Prsons with Disabilitis Individuals who ar daf, hard of haring or hav spch disabilitis and you wish to fil ithr an EEO or program complaint plas contact USDA through th Fdral Rlay Srvic at (800) or (800) (in Spanish). Prsons with disabilitis who wish to fil a program complaint, plas s information abov on how to contact us by mail dirctly or by mail. If you rquir altrnativ mans of communication for program information (.g., Braill, larg print, audiotap, tc.) plas contact USDA's TARGET Cntr at (202) (voic and TDD).

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5 Tabl of Contnts Non-Discrimination Policy... 1 To Fil an Employmnt Complaint... 1 To Fil a Program Complaint... 1 Prsons with Disabilitis... 1 Excutiv Summary... 1 Watr Quality... 1 Mthodology... 1 Analysis Indicators... 4 to ogy... 4 of Sdimnt Rgim Altration... 4 of Tmpratur Rgim Altration... 4 Trnd of Riparian Function... 5 Spatial and Tmporal Contxt... 5 Affctd Environmnt... 5 Environmntal Consquncs... 8 Altrnativ Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts... 8 Cumulativ Effcts... 9 Altrnativ Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Cumulativ Effcts Altrnativ Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Cumulativ Effcts Altrnativ Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Cumulativ Effcts Altrnativ Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Cumulativ Effcts Comparison of Effcts Introduction Mthodology Dtaild Mthodology i

6 Analysis Indicators Spatial and Tmporal Bounding of Analysis Ara Affctd Environmnt Existing Conditions Dsird Conditions Environmntal Consquncs Altrnativ Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Cumulativ Effcts Altrnativ Dirct and Indirct Effcts Cumulativ Effcts Altrnativ Altrnativ Altrnativ Dirct and Indirct Effcts Cumulativ Effcts Comparison of Effcts Complianc with law, rgulation, policy, and th Forst Plan Litratur Citd Appndix A: CWE modl rsults Appndix B: Modl Rsults for Analysis Indicators List of Tabls Tabl 1: Ground-disturbing activitis and vnts incorporatd in Forst CWE modling Tabl 2 Thrshold of concrn (TOC) for cumulativ watrshd ffcts modls Tabl 3: Qualitativ assssmnt of CWE modl risk ratios Tabl 4: Strambd sdimnt monitoring data from projct ara watrshds Tabl 5: Summary of lgacy sdimnt sit invntory data on roads in th projct ara by 5 th fild watrshd Tabl 6: Estimatd pak stram flow incrass from 2014 BAER assssmnts Tabl 7: Modld pr-fir (2012) and post-fir mass-wasting risk ratios for 5 th fild watrshds in th projct ara Tabl 8: 7 th fild watrshds that xcd th mass-wasting modl thrshold of concrn post-fir Tabl 9: Modld pr-fir (2012) and post-fir ERA risk ratios for 5 th fild watrshds in th projct ara Tabl 10: Modld pr-fir (2012) and post-fir ERA risk ratios for 7th-Fild watrshds that xcd th thrshold of concrn Tabl 11: Modld pr-fir (2012) post-fir USLE risk ratios for 5th-Fild watrshds in th projct ara ii

7 Tabl 12: 7 th fild watrshds that xcd th USLE modl thrshold of concrn post-fir Tabl 13: 2014 modrat- and high-svrity fir in projct ara Riparian Rsrvs Tabl 14: Burn svrity along intrmittnt and prnnial strams in th thr projct fir aras Tabl 15: ERA modl rsults comparing altrnativs 1 and 2 for projct 5 th fild watrshds Tabl 16: Mass-wasting modl rsults comparing th altrnativs 1 and 2 for projct 5 th fild watrshds Tabl 17: ERA modl rsults comparing altrnativs 1 and 2for projct 7 th fild watrshds that xcdd th TOC in altrnativ Tabl 18 Mass-wasting modl rsults comparing altrnativs 1 and 2 for projct 7 th fild watrshds that xcdd th TOC in altrnativ Tabl 19: USLE modl rsults comparing altrnativs 1 and 2 for projct 5 th fild watrshds Tabl 20: USLE modl rsults comparing altrnativs 1 and 2 for projct 7 th fild watrshds that xcdd th TOC in altrnativ Tabl 21: Acrs of sit prparation and subsqunt planting of nativ conifr spcis proposd for altrnativs 2, 3 and List of Figurs Figur 1 Fir disturbanc rcovry curvs oprating in th KNF cumulativ watrshd ffcts ERA modl. Effcts of high-svrity fir on hydrologic function ar stimatd to b roughly 20% (cofficint of disturbanc ~ 0.20) of thos of a similar sizd (ara) road sgmnt. Effcts of all fir typs rduc to zro within 30 yars post-fir Figur 2 Fir and vgtation managmnt rcovry curvs oprating in th KNF cumulativ watrshd ffcts USLE modl. Modl assums surfac rosion producd by a 2-yar, 6-hour storm. Surfac rosion rduc significantly in th first yar and rachs background rats in 7 yars. Logarithmic dcay curvs fit to all data sris Figur 3 Rcovry curvs oprating in th KNF cumulativ watrshd ffcts Mass Wasting modl. Effcts of disturbanc on mass wasting ar constant for 10 yars and rduc to background within 50 yars. Modl assums a 10-yar storm vnt is rquird to produc mass wasting Figur 4 Walkr Crk in th Happy Camp Complx Fir ara. Whil significant portions of th watrshd burnd at modrat and high svrity in 2014, th main-stm vally bottom was mostly unburnd. Th stp main stm channl ( 3%) and prdominantly vn-agd hardwood riparian forst is typical of lowr-gradint strams in th analysis ara. This rach was survyd and monitord by th USFS Rdwood Scincs Lab aftr significant disturbanc from th 1997 flood. Photo by ZM 11/15/ Figur 6 Effcts of high-svrity fir on a forstd hillslop in Whits Gulch. Photo by ZM 11/26/ iii

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9 Excutiv Summary Watr Quality This sction compars potntial impacts and bnfits to hydrologic function and watr quality of projct altrnativs. Rsults of th analysis ar usd to vrify that projct altrnativs adhr to xisting law, rgulation, and policy such as th Clan Watr Act (spcifid by Total Maximum Daily Load rquirmnts for th Klamath, Salmon, and Scott Rivrs) and Forst Plan rquirmnts including thos rlatd to th Aquatic Consrvation Stratgy. S Aquatic Consrvation Rport in projct rcord. Mthodology Th ffcts of projct altrnativs on hydrologic function and watr quality ar analyzd basd on xisting Forst cosystm analysis documnts, rcnt watrshd fild survys, and Gographic Information Systm (GIS) rports and modling. Ongoing stram channl monitoring to mt North Coast Rgion Watr Quality Control Board (Watr Board) waivr rquirmnts, and fild survys during and aftr th 2014 firs providd currnt data. Data wr synthsizd to dfin xisting watrshd conditions for comparison with Total Maximum Daily Load rquirmnts for th Klamath, Salmon, and Scott Rivrs, Aquatic Consrvation Stratgy objctivs and dsird watrshd conditions from th Forst Plan. S Aquatic Consrvation Rport in projct rcord. Th Forst uss standardizd Cumulativ Watrshd Effcts (CWE) modls (Equivalnt Roadd Ara, Univrsal Soil Loss Equation, and mass-wasting) to assss ffcts of past, prsnt, and rasonably forsabl activitis as dscribd furthr in th body of th Hydrology rsourc rport and rlvant supporting rfrncs. Cumulativ watrshd ffcts modls wr usd to indx watrshd disturbanc (Equivalnt Roadd Acrs ERA), valuat th ffcts of soil rosion (Univrsal Soil Loss Equation USLE) and valuat th potntial for mass-wasting (landsliding). Modls wr updatd to incorporat ffcts of th 2014 firs and road improvmnts idntifid in BAER assssmnts. Th updats provid a pictur of post-fir watrshd conditions. Th potntially ground-disturbing activitis and vnts that ar includd in th CWE modling for both US Forst Srvic lands and privat lands in th projct ara ar: Vgtation rmoval (timbr harvst, thinning, fuls rduction); Roads usd for tmporary accss; Log landing construction and nlargmnt; Effcts of wildfirs and supprssion fforts (including fir lins); Prscribd burning; Road improvmnts (outsloping, rocking and crossing upgrads) (rsults shown as ngativ numbrs); and Road dcommissioning (rsults shown as ngativ numbrs). Ground-disturbing activitis ar assignd cofficints of disturbanc in th Equivalnt Roadd Ara (ERA) modl to rprsnt th disturbanc cratd by a road sgmnt of qual siz in ara (Haskins 1986). Effcts from vgtation managmnt, wildfir, and prscribd fir show 1

10 naturally rducd disturbanc ovr tim for all thr modls (ERA, univrsal soil loss quation (USLE) and mass-wasting (GEO)). Rcovry curvs ar displayd in figurs 1, 2 and 3 for th thr modls. Sdimnt yild (cubic yards/acr/yar) stimatd by th USLE occurs in th first wintr sason, rquirs a 2-yar, 6-hour storm, and rcovrs to background rats within svn yars (USDA Forst Srvic 2004). Sdimnt yild (cubic yards/acr/dcad) stimatd by th mass-wasting modl dpnds on a tn-yar storm vnt, and yild rcovrs to background rats in 50 yars (USDA Forst Srvic 2004). Th modls mak assumptions rgarding th rats of rcovry for th procsss rprsntd by th modls. As sit r-vgtation provids incrasd intrcption, vapotranspiration, ground covr, and mchanical strngth, th ffcts of ground disturbing activitis lssn (s figurs 3-1, 3-2 and 3-3). Road and landing aras do not rcovr naturally ovr tim; howvr, thir cofficints of disturbanc can b rducd if th aras ar improvd by dcommissioning, outsloping, rocking, or crossing upgrads. Modl rsults fall on a continuum. Th modls ar indxd using a risk ratio. Th thrshold of concrn for th risk ratio for both modls is 1.0. Th thrshold of concrn dos not rprsnt th xact point at which advrs cumulativ ffcts will occur. Rathr it srvs as a yllow flag indicating incrasing suscptibility for advrs ffcts to bnficial uss in a watrshd (Bll 2012) Fir Disturbanc Rcovry - ERA Modl High-Svrity Fir Equivalnt Roadd Ara Cofficint Yars Aftr Fir -Svrity Fir Low-Svrity Fir Prscribd Fir Figur 3-1: Fir disturbanc rcovry curvs for th Forst cumulativ watrshd ffcts ERA modl 2

11 C Factor Fir and Managmnt Disturbanc Rcovry - USLE Modl High-Svrity Fir, 12% Covr -Svrity Fir, 35% Covr Cabl-Yardd Cut Unit, 55% Covr Undrburn, 80% Covr Yars Aftr Disturbanc Figur 3-2: Fir and vgtation managmnt rcovry curvs for th Forst cumulativ watrshd ffcts USLE modl Sdimnt Dlivry (cubic yards / acr / 10 yars) Disturbanc Rcovry - Mass Wasting Modl Yars Aftr Disturbanc Granitic Bdrock, Slops > 65% Dormant Landslids Non-Granitic Bdrock, Low- Slops Figur 3-3: Rcovry curvs for th Forst cumulativ watrshd ffcts mass-wasting modl 3

12 Analysis Indicators Analysis indicators ar chosn to b rsponsiv to Total Maximum Daily Load (Clan Watr Act) rquirmnts and th Forst Plan (including Aquatic Consrvation Stratgy objctivs), and to dmonstrat potntial diffrncs btwn projct altrnativs with rspct to hydrologic function and watr quality. to ogy Th risk to channl morphology is analyzd using th ERA modl. Watrshds with risk ratios of lss than 1.0 ar considrd to hav a low risk to channl morphology. Watrshds with risk ratios of btwn 1.0 and 1.5 hav a modrat risk and watrshds with gratr than 1.5 risk ratios hav a high risk. A low risk to channl morphology mans that thr is not likly to b a masurabl chang to pak flows and th channl bd, banks and floodplain will undrgo natural modifications that ar proportional to th storm vnts. A modrat risk indicats that pak flows may b artificially incrasd by th actions takn. Th incrasd pak flow is likly to lav th channl suscptibl to modifications that ar slightly mor than would occur undr natural conditions. Th prturbation of th gomorphic procsss would b ovr th short trm (about two to four yars). A high risk to channl morphology mans that th incras in pak flows would lad to undsirabl changs (such as channl straightning and loss of coars wood) that would rquir long-trm rcovry (gratr than tn yars). of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Th risk to watr quality from sdimnt rgim altration is valuatd using th USLE and th mass-wasting modl as dscribd in th mthodology sction. Watrshds with a risk ratio for both modls of lss than 1.0 hav a low risk of sdimnt rgim altration. Watrshds with at last th risk ratio btwn 1.0 and 1.5 of just on of th modls hav a modrat risk of sdimnt rgim altration. Watrshds with on modl with risk ratios of gratr than 1.5 and on gratr than 1.0 hav a high risk of sdimnt rgim altration. A low risk mans that watr quality may b affctd but th bnficial uss in th watrshd ar still occurring with nuisanc intrruptions in th natural procsss. A modrat risk mans that watr quality is bing affctd and thr ar minor, short-trm (2-4 yars) intrruptions to bnficial uss in th watrshd. A high risk mans that watr quality is bing affctd on th long-trm (gratr than 10 yars) and bnficial uss may b impaird. Th ffcts of rpairing or not rpairing lgacy sdimnt sits on th risk of rosion and sdimntation ar also analyzd. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th risk to watr quality from tmpratur rgim altration is assssd by analyzing ffcts to shad in Riparian Rsrvs. Vgtation burn svrity data ar usd to assss ffcts of th 2014 firs on vgtation and rlatd rducd shad as a baslin for th analysis of projct activitis. Riparian aras subjct to modrat and high vgtation burn svrity provid rducd shad rlativ to pr-fir conditions; shad protcts watr tmpraturs from solar insolation and warming. Th ffcts of th projct on shad ar stimatd by intrscting th tratmnt aras likly to rmov liv vgtation with Riparian Rsrvs. Ths aras ar assumd to hav th potntial for shad loss. Shad will not b lost ovr much of th tratmnt ara bcaus th 4

13 tratmnts focus on rmoval of only dad or small liv trs. Howvr, larg liv trs may b flld for safty. So th aras ar considrd to hav th potntial to loss stram shading. Th landslid liklihood as assssd in th gology rport is also usd as a proxy for vgtation loss. Landslids can triggr dbris flows which hav bn shown to rmov vgtation along stram channls. Watrshds with lss than 20% of th liv vgtation affctd by th fir or tratmnts in th projct in th Riparian Rsrvs hav a low risk of tmpratur rgim altrations. Watrshds with btwn 20-50% liv vgtation affctd or a highly likly landslid liklihood hav a modrat risk of tmpratur rgim altration. Watrshds with mor than 50% of th liv vgtation affctd or an almost crtain landslid liklihood hav a high risk of tmpratur rgim altrations. A low risk mans that th stram tmpraturs will rmain within th rang of natural variability. A modrat risk mans that th stram tmpraturs will b affctd on th short-trm until shrubs and hardwoods r-sprout in th Riparian Rsrv. A high risk mans that th tmpratur will b masurably affctd and it will tak mor than 10 yars to rcovr. Trnd of Riparian Function Th trnd of Riparian Function is analyzd at th projct scal. It is intndd to giv an ovrall look at how th Riparian Rsrvs ar functioning and whthr th function is improving (positiv trnd), dclining (ngativ trnd) or staying th sam (nutral trnd). Th information from th indicators abov is usd to dtrmin th magnitud and dirction of th trnd. Spatial and Tmporal Contxt Th spatial contxt for th hydrologic analysis is th projct ara that includs portions of th following ight 5 th fild watrshds: Bavr Crk; Humbug Crk-Klamath Rivr; Hors Crk- Klamath Rivr; Siad Crk-Klamath Rivr; Lowr Scott Rivr; Thompson Crk-Klamath Rivr; Elk Crk; and North Fork Salmon Rivr. Th 5 th fild watrshds ar th analysis ara for broad scal ffcts analysis. Th 7 th fild watrshds ar considrd small scal for a projct ara of this siz. Thr ar svnty-fiv 7 th fild watrshds that intrsct portions of th thr fir-rlatd aras (Happy Camp Complx, Bavr, and Whits firs). In addition to th analysis of broad- and small-scal watrshds, th ffcts of proposd nw infrastructur ar analyzd. Effcts to watr quality of proposd tmporary roads, stram crossings, and landings ar assssd. Th long-trm tmporal bounding for this analysis is up to 10 yars bcaus rcovry of th fir-disturbd hydrologic function (from ERA modling) and surfac rosion (from USLE modling) is apprciabl in th first dcad. Th short-trm is btwn 2 and 4 yars aftr implmntation. Affctd Environmnt Th analysis of th affctd nvironmnt includs th Eddy Lat Succssional Rsrv, Elk Thin, Fish Madows, Glassups Timbr Sal, Happy Camp Fir Protction Phas 2, Johnny O Nil Lat Succssional Rsrv Habitat Rstoration and Fuls Rduction, Lak Mountain Foxtail Pin, Lowr Scott Roads, North Fork Roads Storm-proofing, Oak Flat Thin, Singlton, Thom Sidr Vgtation Managmnt and Fuls Rduction, and Two Bit Vgtation Managmnt projcts, as wll as th work don undr th Burnd Ara Emrgncy Rspons, grazing allotmnts, Timbr Harvst Plans sinc 2005, and privat land salvag (undr Emrgncy Timbr Harvst Plans). Ths ar on-going activitis and th CWE modl includs thm in th currnt portion of th 5

14 rsults. To rmain consistnt, all of ths projcts ar includd in th analysis of th affctd nvironmnt, which rprsnts th ffcts of th past and on-going actions. Gnral information on th affctd nvironmnt for th projct is providd in chaptr 1. Watrshd hydrology is charactrizd by dry summr and fall months followd by significant wintr prcipitation. ogy and function of th stp stram channls is controlld by larg floods such as thos in 1997, 1974, 1964, and 1955 (Stwart and LaMarch 1967; d la Funt and Eldr 1998), and associatd landslids and dbris flows. Riparian vgtation is primarily hardwood (an xampl is shown in figur 4) although vally bottom mixd-conifr vgtation with larg Douglas-fir trs was historically significant (Mondry 2004). Whil significant portions of th Walkr Crk watrshd burnd at modrat and high svrity in 2014, th mainstm vally bottom was mostly unburnd. Th stp main stm channl ( 3%) and prdominantly vn-agd hardwood riparian forst is typical of lowr-gradint strams in th analysis ara. This rach was survyd and monitord by th USDA Forst Srvic Rdwood Scincs Lab aftr significant disturbanc from th 1997 flood. Figur 3-4 : Walkr Crk in th Happy Camp Complx Fir ara (Photo by Zack Mondry 11/15/14). Effcts of th 2014 wildfirs on xisting conditions in th projct ara ar gratst whr forstd aras burnd with continuous high svrity (s figur 3-5 for an xampl). Post-fir sdimnt has alrady bn dlivrd to projct aras strams such as Elk and Gridr crks during wintr storms (B. Millr, Klamath National Forst, writtn communication). 6

15 Figur 3-5: Effcts of high-svrity fir on a forstd hillslop in Whits Gulch (Photo by Zack Mondry 11/26/14). Th currnt risk to channl morphology by 7 th fild watrshd is displayd in th appndics of th hydrology rport. Thr ar sixty-thr watrshds with a low risk and nin watrshds with a modrat risk. Doggtt and Kohl Crk ar th only two watrshds with a currntly high risk to channl morphology. Thir lvatd risk is a rsult of th ffcts of th 2014 wildfir. Currntly thr ar fiv 7 th fild watrshds with a high risk of sdimnt rgim altration. Ths ar Soda Crk-Bavr Crk, Lowr Wst Fork Bavr Crk, Doggtt Crk, McKinny Crk and Kohl Crk. All of th watrshds, xcpt McKinny Crk, hav lvatd risks du to th ffcts of th 2014 wildfirs. McKinny Crk has an lvatd risk bcaus of th currnt privat land timbr harvst activitis. Thr ar ightn watrshds with modrat risks and 51 watrshds with a low risk of sdimnt rgim altration. On caus of impairmnt to watr and hydrologic function is lgacy sdimnt sits from past managmnt including historic mining, road building, and silvicultur (Watr Board 2010, Watr Board 2005). A majority of th lgacy sdimnt sits ar associatd with th road systm, most of which was constructd prior to modrn bst managmnt practics (BMPs). Culvrts wr commonly dsignd to pass a 25-yar flood rathr than th 100-yar flood rquird by currnt road standards. Road construction oftn did not avoid unstabl slops or riparian aras that ar protctd by today s BMPs. As a rsult of ths construction practics, som of th currnt road systm is not rsilint to natural disturbanc by fir and floods. Som of th impact to watr quality from th 1997 floods occurrd whn landslids and dbris flows rmovd riparian vgtation, rducd stram shad, and incrasd watr tmpraturs (D La Funt and Eldr 1998, Watr Board 2010). Th Total Maximum Daily Load rquirmnts for th Klamath, Scott, and Salmon Rivrs wr dvlopd to insur that road stram crossings withstand a 100-yar flood without divrting or failing. Th Forst has compltd lgacy sdimnt sit invntoris for most roads on th Forst (USDA Forst Srvic 2012). Th rsults of th analysis by 7 th fild watrshd ar in th appndics of 7

16 th Hydrology rsourc rport. A total of 953 lgacy sdimnt sits wr invntorid within th projct boundary. Th lgacy sdimnt sits ar associatd with undrsizd culvrts, stram divrsion potntial at road crossings, or roads locatd on unstabl slops. Mor dtaild information on lgacy sdimnt sits is providd in th Hydrology rsourc rport. Thr ar currntly ight watrshds with high risk of tmpratur rgim altration. Ths ar Buckhorn Gulch-Bavr Crk, Kohl Crk, Lowr Gridr Crk, O Nil Crk, Walkr Crk, Carolin Crk, Granit Crk and Middl Elk Crk. All of ths watrshds hav lvatd risk du to th 2014 wildfirs. Thr ar twnty-on and forty-fiv watrshds with a modrat and low risk rspctivly. Th trnd of riparian function is currntly a slowly climbing positiv trnd. Th fir-killd trs will start to fall and add coars wood to th riparian rsrvs which will crat channl complxity. Th incrasd landslid risk will both mov coars wood to th 3 rd to 5 th ordr strams but may also rmov riparian vgtation that provids shad. Th shad producing vgtation on small strams (including shrubs and hardwoods) rcovrs quickly; th shad on largr strams (larg conifrs rquird) will tak longr to rgnrat. Environmntal Consquncs Altrnativ 1 Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Thr ar no dirct ffcts to channl morphology, watr quality (sdimnt and tmpratur rgims), or channl function rsulting from altrnativ 1. Rcovry curvs can b viwd as a timlin of th magnitud and duration of indirct ffcts on hydrologic function and hillslop sdimnt production of th 2014 wildfirs and altrnativ 1. Ovr th long-trm, th ful load conditions will lad to fir intnsity and flam lngths that ar conduciv to major fir runs, crown firs, and spotting. Th larg fuls componnt (gratr than 3 inchs) will lad to an lvatd fir intnsity and duration of fir on th landscap if it should r-burn. In 10 yars, th conditions undr altrnativ 1 will lad to nin prcnt of th ara having flam lngths gratr than 11 ft. Sixty prcnt of th tratmnt ara is likly to xprinc flam lngths btwn 4 and 11 ft and thirty-on prcnt is likly to hav flam lngths of lss than 4 ft. (S fir and fuls rport). High flam lngths ar associat with high svrity fir and will contribut to acclratd sdimnt dlivry(dbano t al. 2005), incrasd stram tmpraturs (Pabst and Spis 2001)and stram flows (Nary, t al. 2005a)and incrasd potntial for th introduction of toxic chmicals from fir rtardant application during futur fir supprssion fforts(nary, t al. 2005b). to ogy Altrnativ 1 will allow for passiv rcovry of vgtation in th watrshds which will b slowr than if tratmnt, including planting, would occur. Th xtndd duration of dcrasd intrcption, us of watr by plants, and ground covr will xtnd th risk to channl morphology ovr th long-trm. of Sdimnt Rgim Altration 8

17 In th longr-trm, lgacy sdimnt sits will continu to hav a high risk of failing in futur floods and impacts will b similar to th channl scour, loss of stram shad, incrasd stram tmpraturs, and sdimntation that occurrd in th 1997 flood as dscribd by D La Funt and Eldr (1998). Ths impacts will advrsly affct bnficial uss and violat th Waivr and watr quality standards in th Basin Plan (Stat of California Watr Board 2011). Th risk of road failurs is gratr at sits locatd blow high-svrity burns du to incrasd runoff and pak flows. Th risk to sdimnt rgim altration will passivly rcovr from currnt condition toward prfir conditions ovr th nxt four to fiv yars for surfac rosion. Th rcovry for landslidrlatd sdimnt will start in about 10 yars and could tak up to 80 yars to b rducd to prfir lvls bcaus of th lngth of tim rquird to r-stablish forst vgtation without artificial rgnration (s Gology rport). of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th watrshds with a high risk of tmpratur rgim altrations, without artificial rgnration, will hav an xtndd duration of lvatd risk. Natural rgnration will occur, but in gnral it will mor than 80 yars to gt trs with 10 inch diamtrs at brast hight in aras burnd with high and modrat svrity (prsonal communication, Projct Silviculturist). Trnd of Riparian Function Larg-wood loading to riparian zons and stram channls that is xpctd to occur undr this altrnativ is widly rgardd as bnficial for sdimnt rtntion, channl function, habitat complxity, covr, and nutrint cycling (Kllr and Swanson 1979; Nakamura and Swanson 1994; Grant and Swanson 1995). Givn th rlativly small acrag of Riparian Rsrv that burnd at modrat- and high-svrity in 2014, and th small lngth of stram channls affctd, ngativ fir ffcts ar not xpctd to channl function rsulting from burnd Riparian Rsrv aras. Whr fir impacts incras larg wood loading to stram channls, ffcts will b positiv for channl sdimnt mtring and othr functions. Howvr, th lvatd liklihood of landsliding (s gology rport) will tak mor than 80 yars to rcovr undr altrnativ 1. Dbris flows can hav substantial ffcts on channl function. Th ovrall trnd of riparian function is positiv but has a gntl slop (long-trm rcovry). Cumulativ Effcts Th projcts addd to th ffcts of th past actions (th affctd nvironmnt) and th dirct and indirct ffcts of th projct ar portions of th Jss projct, Salmon Rforstation, Scott Bar Undrburn, Lovrs Canyon, McCollins and Sawyrs Bar Fuls Rduction Projct that ar in th 7th fild watrshds analyzd. Th Jss projct and Lovrs Canyon projct ar th only two futur projcts that hav any ffct on risk ratios or numbr of watrshds with high or modrat disturbanc. to ogy On watrshd, Jssups Gulch, movs from a low risk to a modrat risk. Th cumulativ lvation in risk is a rsult of th Jss projct. Ths ffcts will b mitigatd via projct dsign faturs but th risk will likly rmain modrat. All othr watrshds rmain th sam as in th affctd nvironmnt. Cumulativly th numbr of watrshds with a low risk to channl 9

18 morphology is sixty-two. Th numbr of watrshds with a modrat risk gos from nin to tn and high risk rmains at two. of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Thr is no chang in any of th risk catgoris for any of th 7 th fild watrshd. Th risk ratios incras by an avrag of 0.02 which rsults in no chang of avrag risk ratio whn rportd to a singl dcimal plac. Th largst incras was in Jssups Gulch whr th USLE and masswasting risk ratios incras by a valu of 0.2 du to th ffcts of th Jss projct. Th risk of sdimnt rgim altrations for Jssups Gulch rmains low whn cumulativ ffcts ar considrd. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th cumulativ ffcts for risk to tmpratur rgim altrations mad th assumption that thr would b no loss of shad on strams from Forst Srvic projcts bcaus of th Total Maximum Daily Load rquirmnts. It was assumd that thr is a loss of shad for all privat land harvsts including privat land salvag of 2014 fir aras. Thr is no chang in th risk lvls for any of th watrshds as a rsult of adding th actions considrd in this portion of th analysis to th projct ffcts. Thr wr incrass in th prcnt of th Riparian Rsrvs with th potntial to los shad, but non of th changs wr larg nough to incras th risk catgory. Trnd of Riparian Function Riparian Rsrv function will continu on a slow, positiv trnd. Thr may b a slight downward dip in riparian function in watrshds with privat land harvst du to th loss of shad in th stram channls. This will b a short-trm cumulativ ffct on th smallr strams as shrubs and hardwoods can provid shad, howvr on th main stms th downward trnd will b mor long-trm until larg conifrs ar shading th stram again. Altrnativ 2 Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Th fir svrity will rmain low for 10 yars post-tratmnt for all aras tratd in th altrnativ. If th ara should r-burn during this tim, th risk to watr quality will b small and short-trm. to ogy Thr will b sixty-thr 7th fild watrshds that will continu to hav a low risk to channl morphology, nin watrshds that will continu to hav a modrat risk, and two with a high risk. Altrnativ 2 proposs construction or rconstruction of tmporary roads, installation and rmoval of stram crossings, and construction of log landings in Riparian Rsrvs. Whil ffcts of ths activitis on channl morphology is minor to undtctabl at th watrshd scal, sit-scal ffcts ar anticipatd from som infrastructur. Ths tmporary road actions includ 14 stram crossings (four of prnnial strams and 10 of intrmittnt strams). Tmporary stram crossings will likly hav short duration ffcts to watr quality du to sdimnt production during in-channl actions and in th first wintr aftr us; thy will likly b small-scal and limitd to th immdiat downstram channl rach, dpnding on flow rgim and channl morphology. Furthr dtail on sit-scal ffcts is providd in th Hydrology and Aquatic 10

19 rsourcs rports. Th projct dsign faturs (tabl 2-35 in chaptr 2) ar not accountd for in th modling and ar intndd mitigat ffcts including surfac runoff from tmporary roads and landings which can xacrbat pak flows. of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Th ffcts of altrnativ 2 do not chang th risk catgoris for any watrshd compard to altrnativ 1. Th USLE modl incrass for nin watrshds and th mass-wasting modl incras for svntn watrshds. Th risk ratio incras is lss than 0.2 in all cass. Th changs in th risk ratios ar not nough to chang th risk catgory for any of th watrshds. Th tratmnt of lgacy sits in th Elk Crk 6 th fild watrshd will rduc th chronic sdimnt dlivry to stram channls. Sit-scal altration of th sdimnt rgim is anticipatd in som cass as dscribd in th Hydrology and Aquatic rsourcs rports. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th ffcts to risk of tmpratur rgim altrations assumd that th only action that would rmov shad on strams would b roadsid hazard tratmnts. Thr is no tratmnt in th Riparian Rsrvs in th salvag units and sit prparation and fuls tratmnts ar only rmoving dad vgtation. Th indirct ffct of altrnativ 2 lads to nin watrshds having high risk, on mor than altrnativ 1. Robinson Gulch movd from modrat risk undr altrnativ 1 to high risk for altrnativ 2. Thr ar also tn watrshds that mov from a low risk undr altrnativ 1 to a modrat risk undr altrnativ 2. Ths ar Millr Gulch-Klamath Rivr, Uppr Gridr Crk, Tom Martin Crk, Hors Crk-Klamath Rivr, Hadwatrs of Elk Crk, Uppr Elk Crk, Lowr East Fork Elk Crk, Hoop & Dvil, Lowr South Russian Crk and Big Crk. Th numbrs of watrshds with low and modrat risk ar 35 and 30, rspctivly. Trnd of Riparian Function Th Riparian Rsrv function will hav a positiv trnd. Th trnd will b for a littl fastr rcovry du to planting of burnd stands in Riparian Rsrvs that will incras th spd of rforstation. Thr is limitd rmoval of larg trs from th Riparian Rsrvs so coars wood is not likly to b masurably rducd on th watrshd scal. Th landslid liklihood rmains th sam as for altrnativ 1. Howvr, th duration of th lvatd risk is rducd for som of th most at risk watrshds (s Gology rport). Cumulativ Effcts to ogy Th actions considrd for cumulativ ffcts ar th sam as for altrnativ 1. Th cumulativ ffct on risk to channl morphology is that Jssups Gulch will mov from a low risk to a high risk. Ths ffcts will b mitigatd via projct dsign faturs but th risk will likly rmain modrat. All othr watrshds rmain at th sam risk lvl as for th indirct ffcts of altrnativ 2. of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Thirtn of th watrshds had an incras in th risk ratio for USLE and thr for th masswasting modl as a rsult of futur forsabl actions but no incras was larg nough to chang a risk catgory. Th largst incras in USLE risk ratio was in Jssups Gulch (0.2). Th 11

20 largst incras in th mass-wasting risk ratio was also in Jssups Gulch (0.2). Th risk ratio is rducd du to th lgacy sit tratmnts in svn and six watrshds for th USLE and masswasting modl, rspctivly. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th actions considrd in cumulativ ffcts incrasd th shad loss potntial for 19 watrshds. Big Frry-Swanson has an incras in prcntag of th watrshd with shad loss potntial of 12.4%, Quigly s Cov has an incras of 8.6%, Doggtt Crk of 7.6% and Dutch Crk of 6.7%. Th othr watrshds hav incrass of lss than 3%. Ths incrass ar not nough to mov any of th watrshds into anothr risk catgory. Trnd of Riparian Function Th trnd of th Riparian Rsrv function will rmain positiv. Thr may b a slight downward dip in riparian function in watrshds with privat land harvst du to th loss of shad in th stram channls. This will b a short-trm cumulativ ffct on th smallr strams as shrubs and hardwoods can provid shad, howvr along main stms, th downward trnd will b longr-trm until larg conifrs ar shading strams again. Altrnativ 3 Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Th fir svrity will rmain low for 10 yars post-tratmnt for all aras tratd in th altrnativ. If th ara should r-burn during this tim, th risk to watr quality will b small and short-trm. to ogy Th risk to channl morphology for all watrshds for altrnativ 3 is th sam as for altrnativ 2. of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Th risk of sdimnt rgim altrations is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Th mass-wasting risk ratios for ight watrshds wr rducd slightly but not nough to chang th risk catgoris for any of th watrshds. Sit-scal altration of th sdimnt rgim is anticipatd in som cass as dscribd in th Hydrology and Aquatic rsourcs rports. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th risk of tmpratur rgim altrations is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Trnd of Riparian Function Th trnd of riparian function is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Cumulativ Effcts to ogy Th cumulativ ffcts for risk to channl gomorphology for all watrshds for altrnativ 3 ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. Th incrass to th risk ratios from actions considrd for cumulativ ffcts ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. 12

21 of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Th cumulativ ffcts for risk of sdimnt rgim altration for all watrshds for altrnativ 3 ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. Th incrass to th risk ratios from actions considrd for cumulativ ffcts ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th cumulativ ffcts on risk of tmpratur rgim altrations ar th sam as for Altrnativ 2. Trnd of Riparian Function Th cumulativ trnd of riparian function is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Altrnativ 4 Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Th fir svrity will rmain low for 10 yars post-tratmnt for all aras tratd in th altrnativ. If th ara should r-burn during this tim, th risk to watr quality will b small and short-trm. to ogy Th risk to channl morphology for all watrshds for altrnativ 4 is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Fiftn watrshds hav risk ratios lss than for altrnativ 2. Howvr, non of th risk ratios dcrasd nough to rduc th risk catgoris. of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Th risk of sdimnt rgim altrations is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Th USLE risk ratios for six watrshds ar rducd and mass-wasting risk ratios for six watrshds ar rducd but not nough t0 chang th risk catgoris for any of th watrshds. Sit-scal altration of th sdimnt rgim is lss for altrnativ 4 than for altrnativs 2 and 3 du to rducd mils of proposd tmporary roads and no stram crossings as dscribd in th Hydrology and Aquatic rsourcs rports. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th risk of tmpratur rgim altration is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Howvr, th rduction in roadsid tratmnts rducd th prcnt potntial shad rduction in fourtn watrshds. Lowr Wst Fork Bavr, Dutch Crk, Middl Crk, Dp Crk, and Hors Crk had potntial shad-loss rducd by 1.1%, 1.8%, 2.7%, 1.3% and 3.1%, rspctivly. In th rmaining watrshds, rductions wr lss than 1%. Non of ths rductions wr nough to rduc risk catgoris. Trnd of Riparian Function Th trnd of riparian function is th sam as for altrnativ 2 with th xcption of sit-scal ffcts that ar smallr for altrnativ 4 than for altrnativs 2 and 3. Cumulativ Effcts to ogy 13

22 Th cumulativ ffcts for risk to channl gomorphology for all watrshds for altrnativ 4 ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. Th incrass to th risk ratios from actions considrd for cumulativ ffcts ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Th cumulativ ffcts for risk of sdimnt rgim altration for all watrshds for altrnativ 3 ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. Th incrass to th risk ratios from actions considrd for cumulativ ffcts ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th cumulativ ffcts ar th sam as for Altrnativ 2. Th rlativ incrass in th potntial shad loss wr th sam as for altrnativ 2. Non of th watrshd risks wr rducd compard to altrnativ 2. Trnd of Riparian Function Th cumulativ trnd of riparian function is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Altrnativ 5 Dirct Effcts and Indirct Effcts Th fir svrity will rmain low for 10 yars post-tratmnt for all aras tratd in th altrnativ. If th ara should r-burn during this tim, th risk to watr quality will b small and short-trm. to ogy Th risk to channl morphology for all watrshds for altrnativ 5 is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Svntn watrshds hav risk ratios lss than for altrnativ 2; howvr th changs ar not nough to chang th risk catgory for any of th watrshds. of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Th risk of sdimnt rgim altrations is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Th mass-wasting risk ratios for nin watrshds wr rducd but not nough to chang th risk catgoris for any of th watrshds. Sit-scal altration of th sdimnt rgim is lss for altrnativ 5 than for altrnativs 2 and 3 du to th rducd mils of proposd tmporary roads and no stram crossings as dscribd in th Hydrology and Aquatic rsourcs rports. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th risk of tmpratur rgim altrations is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Trnd of Riparian Function Th trnd of riparian function is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Cumulativ Effcts to ogy 14

23 Th cumulativ ffcts for risk to channl gomorphology for all watrshds for altrnativ 5 ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. Th incrass to th risk ratios from actions considrd for cumulativ ffcts ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. of Sdimnt Rgim Altration Th cumulativ ffcts for risk of sdimnt rgim altration for all watrshds for altrnativ 5 ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. Th incrass to th risk ratios from actions considrd for cumulativ ffcts ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. of Tmpratur Rgim Altration Th cumulativ ffcts on risk of tmpratur rgim altrations ar th sam as for altrnativ 2. Trnd of Riparian Function Th cumulativ trnd of riparian function is th sam as for altrnativ 2. Comparison of Effcts Th CWE modl rsults by 7 th fild watrshd for dirct and indirct ffcts, and for cumulativ ffcts, for analysis indicators ar in th appndics of th hydrology rport. A comparativ summary of th ffcts of altrnativs on analysis indicators for watr (hydrology) is displayd in tabl 1. Tabl Error! No txt of spcifid styl in documnt.-1: Numbr of 7 th fild watrshds in ach risk catgory for analysis indicators Indicator Ranking Altrnativ 1 Altrnativ 2 Altrnativ 3 Altrnativ 4 Altrnativ 5 ogy to Sdimnt Rgims to Tmpratur Rgims Trnd of Riparian Function Low High Low High Low High Vry Slow, Positiv Slow, Positiv Slow, Positiv Slow, Positiv Slow, Positiv 15

24 Introduction Th following projct is intndd to compar potntial impacts and bnfits to hydrologic function and watr quality of projct altrnativs. Rsults of th analysis will thn b usd to vrify that projct altrnativs adhr to xisting law, rgulation, and policy such as th Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) rquirmnts for th Klamath, Salmon, and Scott Rivrs and th rquirmnts of th Aquatic Consrvation Stratgy (ACS) within th Forst Plan. A dtaild dscription of th projct altrnativs considrd for analysis can b found in chaptr 2 of th draft EIS. Mthodology Dtaild Mthodology Th ffcts of projct altrnativs on hydrologic function and watr quality ar analyzd basd on xisting Klamath National Forst (Forst) cosystm analysis documnts, rcnt watrshd fild survys, and Gographic Information Systm (GIS) rports and modling. Ongoing stram channl monitoring to mt North Coast Watr Quality Control Board (Watr Board) Waivr rquirmnts, and fild survys during th 2014 firs and Burnd Ara Emrgncy Rspons (BAER) assssmnts providd currnt data. Data wr synthsizd to stablish watrshd xisting conditions in th contxt of rquirmnts for th Klamath, Salmon, and Scott Rivrs (Total Maximum Daily Loads to mt Clan Watr Act rquirmnts), and ACS objctivs and dsird conditions from th Forst Plan. Th Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for th Klamath, Scott, and Salmon Rivrs contain numric targts that rprsnt attainmnt of Stat watr quality standards for tmpratur and sdimnt (Watr Board 2005a, 2005b, 2010). Th following ar watrshd-wid conditions that srv as indicators of TMDL complianc and bnficial us support: 1. Lss than 1% of all road-stram crossings (lgacy sdimnt sits) divrt or fail as a rsult of a 100-yar or smallr flood. 2. Dcrasing trnd of road-rlatd landslids. 3. Instram Targt: 0 mils of substantial human causd sdimnt-rlatd channl altration. 4. Riparian Shad: Sit-potntial ffctiv stram shad. Equal to th shad providd by topography and full potntial vgtation conditions at a sit, with an allowanc for natural disturbancs such as floods, wind throw, disas, landslids, and fir. Th Forst uss standardizd Cumulativ Watrshd Effcts (CWE) modls (Equivalnt Roadd Ara, Univrsal Soil Loss Equation, mass-wasting) to assss ffcts of past, prsnt, and rasonably forsabl activitis. Modls wr updatd to incorporat ffcts of th 2014 firs and road improvmnts idntifid in BAER assssmnts. Th updats provid a pictur of postfir xisting conditions, as wll as an initial assssmnt of th ffcts of taking no action in th projct (altrnativ 1). Subsquntly, ffcts of projct action altrnativs wr modld basd on proposd vgtation tratmnts and associatd road construction. Tabl 1 displays activitis that ar includd in th Forst CWE modls. 16

25 Tabl 2: Ground-disturbing activitis and vnts incorporatd in Forst CWE modling Vgtation rmoval (timbr harvst, thinning, fuls rduction) Road construction (including tmporary roads, bulldozd fir lin) Log landing construction/nlargmnt Actions on privat lands documntd in Timbr Harvst Plans (THPs) High- and modrat-svrity wildfir Prscribd fir Road improvmnts (outsloping, rocking, crossing upgrads) 1 Road dcommissioning 1 1 Road improvmnts and road dcommissioning rsult in rducd ffcts in th CWE modls but th ffcts ar not rducd to zro in th modl assssmnts. Ground disturbing activitis in Tabl 1 ar assignd cofficints of disturbanc in th Equivalnt Roadd Ara (ERA) modl in ordr to scal th activitis to disturbanc cratd by an qual sizd (ara) road sgmnt (Haskins 1986). Effcts from vgtation managmnt, wildfir, and prscribd fir rduc ovr tim basd on rcovry curvs (Figur 1). Road and landing aras do not rcovr naturally ovr tim; howvr, thir cofficints of disturbanc can b rducd if th aras ar improvd by dcommissioning, outsloping, rocking, or crossing upgrads. Th Univrsal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and mass-wasting (GEO) CWE modls also incorporat rcovry curvs (Figurs 2 and 3) to modl rducd disturbanc ovr tim. Sdimnt yild (cubic yards/acr/yar) stimatd by th USLE occurs in th first wintr sason, rquirs a 2-yar, 6-hour storm, and rcovrs to background rats within 7 yars (USDA Forst Srvic 2004). Sdimnt yild (cubic yards/acr/dcad) stimatd by th Mass Wasting modl dpnds on a 10-yar storm vnt, and yild rcovrs to background rats in 50 yars (USDA Forst Srvic 2004). Rats of surfac rosion and mass wasting rcovr as sit r-vgtation provids incrasd intrcption, vapotranspiration, ground covr, and mchanical strngth. 17

26 0.25 Fir Disturbanc Rcovry - ERA Modl High-Svrity Fir Equivalnt Roadd Ara Cofficint Yars Aftr Fir -Svrity Fir Low-Svrity Fir Prscribd Fir Figur 6 Fir disturbanc rcovry curvs oprating in th KNF cumulativ watrshd ffcts ERA modl. Effcts of high-svrity fir on hydrologic function ar stimatd to b roughly 20% (cofficint of disturbanc ~ 0.20) of thos of a similar sizd (ara) road sgmnt. Effcts of all fir typs rduc to zro within 30 yars post-fir. 18

27 C Factor Fir and Managmnt Disturbanc Rcovry - USLE Modl High-Svrity Fir, 12% Covr -Svrity Fir, 35% Covr Cabl-Yardd Cut Unit, 55% Covr Undrburn, 80% Covr Yars Aftr Disturbanc Figur 7 Fir and vgtation managmnt rcovry curvs oprating in th KNF cumulativ watrshd ffcts USLE modl. Modl assums surfac rosion producd by a 2-yar, 6-hour storm. Surfac rosion rduc significantly in th first yar and rachs background rats in 7 yars. Logarithmic dcay curvs fit to all data sris. Sdimnt Dlivry (cubic yards / acr / 10 yars) Disturbanc Rcovry - Mass Wasting Modl Yars Aftr Disturbanc Granitic Bdrock, Slops > 65% Dormant Landslids Non-Granitic Bdrock, Low- Slops Figur 8 Rcovry curvs oprating in th KNF cumulativ watrshd ffcts Mass Wasting modl. Effcts of disturbanc on mass wasting ar constant for 10 yars and rduc to background within 50 yars. Modl assums a 10-yar storm vnt is rquird to produc mass wasting. 19

28 Th rcovry curvs can b viwd as a timlin of th magnitud and duration of indirct ffcts on hydrologic function and hillslop sdimnt production of th 2014 wildfirs and altrnativ 1. Onc all past, prsnt, and rasonably forsabl activitis wr accountd for in CWE modls th rsulting valus of quivalnt roadd ara and sdimnt yild wr compard against 5 th fild and 7 th fild watrshd thrsholds of concrn (TOC). Th TOCs wr stablishd basd on % quivalnt roadd ara and % ovr background sdimnt yild as shown in Tabl 2. Tabl 3 Thrshold of concrn (TOC) for cumulativ watrshd ffcts modls. CWE Modl Thrshold of Concrn (TOC) ERA (quivalnt roadd ara) 6 12 % 1 USLE (surfac rosion) 400% ovr background yild Mass Wasting 200% ovr background yild 1-Th TOC rangs from 6 to 12% in th 7 th -Fild watrshds that intrsct th projct fir aras. Finally, modld disturbanc lvls wr dividd by th TOC to driv watrshd risk ratios at th 5 th fild and 7 th fild scals. ratios in xcss of 1.0 srv as a yllow flag for incrasing suscptibility for significant advrs ffcts (Bll 2012). For th purposs of this analysis I gnrally considrd risk ratios as follows: Tabl 4: Qualitativ assssmnt of CWE modl risk ratios Valu of Modl Gnral Catgory < 1.0 Low > 1.5 High Analysis Indicators Analysis indicators ar chosn to b rsponsiv to TMDL rquirmnts (Clan Watr Act) and th Forst Plan (including ACS objctivs), and to dmonstrat potntial diffrncs btwn projct altrnativs with rspct to hydrologic function and watr quality. Th risk to channl morphology rsulting from incrasd pak flow is assssd using stimatd unit (cfs/mil 2 ) incrasd pak flows from th 2014 BAER rports (USDA Forst Srvic 2014a, 2014b, 2014c). Th mass-wasting modl is usd to assss potntial risk of channl chang from landslids and potntial rsulting dbris flows. Th potntial ffcts of tmporary road and landing construction and vgtation tratmnts to pak flow ar assssd using th ERA modl. Th risk to watr quality from sdimnt rgim altration is valuatd using th suit of cumulativ watrshd ffcts modls as dscribd in th mthodology sction. High- and modrat-svrity wildfir, construction of tmporary roads and landings, road improvmnts, and vgtation tratmnts wr all includd in th CWE modling (Tabl 1). Th ffcts of rpairing or not rpairing lgacy sdimnt sits on th risk of rosion and sdimntation ar also analyzd. 20

29 Th risk to watr quality from tmpratur rgim altration is assssd by analyzing ffcts to Riparian Rsrvs. Burnd Ara Rflctanc Class (BARC) data was usd to assss ffcts of th 2014 firs on vgtation and rlatd rducd shad as a baslin for th analysis of projct activitis. Riparian shad buffrs watr tmpraturs from solar insolation and warming, and riparian aras subjct to modrat and high-svrity fir provid rducd shad rlativ to prfir conditions. Th mass-wasting modl is usd to assss landslid risk and potntial rsulting dbris flows can scour shad-producing stramsid vgtation and affct watr tmpratur. Additionally, Riparian Rsrvs proposd for planting ar also analyzd bcaus shadproducing forstd conditions ar xpctd to rturn mor quickly aftr planting. Similar to tmpratur rgim altration, th risk to channl function is valuatd by analyzing ffcts to Riparian Rsrvs. Acrs of Riparian Rsrv disturbd by modrat and high-svrity fir will yild mor sdimnt post-fir than in pr-fir conditions. Howvr, ths aras will also rcruit mor larg wood to stram channls, and this procss aids sdimnt storag, aquatic habitat dvlopmnt and nutrint cycling. Additionally, th mass-wasting modl assssmnt is usd bcaus landslids and potntial rsulting dbris flows can affct channl function. Spatial and Tmporal Bounding of Analysis Ara Th spatial contxt for th hydrologic analysis was th projct ara including approximatly 215,000 acrs in portions of th following ight 5 th fild Hydrologic Unit Cod (HUC) watrshds: Bavr Crk; Humbug Crk-Klamath Rivr; Hors Crk-Klamath Rivr; Siad Crk-Klamath Rivr; Lowr Scott Rivr; Thompson Crk-Klamath Rivr; Elk Crk; and North Fork Salmon Rivr. Th 5 th fild watrshds ar th analysis ara for broad scal ffcts analysis. Th 7 th fild watrshds ar considrd small scal for a projct ara of this siz. Thr ar 75 7 th fild watrshds that intrsctd portions of th thr fir-rlatd aras (Happy Camp Complx, Bavr, and Whits firs). Th long-trm tmporal bounding for this analysis is up to 10 yars bcaus rcovry of th fir-disturbd hydrologic function (from ERA modling) and surfac rosion (from USLE modling) is apprciabl in th first dcad. Affctd Environmnt Gnral information on th affctd nvironmnt for th projct is providd in chaptr 1 of th draft EIS. In trms of watr (hydrology), spcific information rlatd to analysis indicators is providd in this sction. Watrshd hydrology is charactrizd by dry summr and fall months followd by significant wintr prcipitation. ogy and function of th stp stram channls is controlld by larg floods such as thos in 1997, 1974, 1964, and 1955 (Stwart and LaMarch 1967; d la Funt and Eldr 1998), and associatd landslids and dbris flows. Riparian vgtation is primarily hardwood (Figur 1) although vally bottom mixd-conifr vgtation with larg Douglas-fir trs was historically significant (Mondry 2004). 21