Victoria Office Report

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1 Victoria Offic Rport

2 victoria Offic Rport 2016 TUCKERMAN HYDE PARK Commntary sbrig Knight ST JAMES S PARK Kinghtsbrig ir Sq l Montp Gat Pl ac a Ro on pt m o Br B au ch am p Pla r or Ennism Pontt c Pont gan Sq Cao r W al to n uar tr rs nsington gan Sq uar Cao lac P rlo u Th t r r sh am rns or Ga Rutlan Ennism s Garn Th yar was charactris by a surpris consrvativ majority in th Gnral Elction an a stay conomy, rsulting in continu confinc in th commrcial proprty mark, with man rmaining strong in most marks. Bas il S tr Knightsbrig C h Roa At th sam tim th rsintial mark has rmain positiv, although th supr prim mark suffr from a prciv ovr supply, as wll as changs to stamp Duty. no Mil lham r Dr r ay co an tt Av og A n c u Ca v la nu tp ot yc ra D Slo Pla c an ar Ixw ort h a Ro m ha y n Sy in victoria spcifically, th Lan scuritis an Transport for Lonon vlopmnts aroun th station ar finally naring complion, bringing to an n prhaps th most significant phas of victoria s transformation in trms of both occupational spac as wll as infrastructur an amnity offring. c Pla Elystan am rkh Ma Jubil Pl Cal r Fr an kl ith t alk W r r or o n l Flo Ra wfi a tr Sh rs no Ma a r r y us ho v Do n Sy in Sm oa sr g n Ki s r Ro w Pimlico P m o t D ur ha m Pl ls Ch ac tr ys kl Oa Vauxhall a r Ro no r sv Gro urc tr hs CHELSEA PHYSIC GARDEN Th planning rgim has bgun to chang, but th much trump sptmbr 2015 alin cam an wnt with littl chang y vinc. Furthr clarity is xpct uring 2016, with lss offic to rsintial convrsion likly to b prmitt. Rsintial an commrcial valus ar clos to parity, as commrcial rnts an yils stam aha an rsintial valus softn. Th incras in invstmnt activity slow but turnovr still rmains at th highst lvls vr sn at 1.75 billion. Tak-up fll sharply an availability at th n of th yar was at a twnty yar low. Howvr, whn on igs in to th figurs an th rasons for thm, it was a transformativ yar for victoria, which has sn it achiv a status not hl prviously. VAUXHALL PARK rt Alb nt nkm mba a E hls g Bri BATTERSEA PARK R Tuckrman is a nich chartr survyor an commrcial agnt in th victoria an Wstminstr ara. W unrtak aroun 50% of all th commrcial als in th location an ar rgularly on of th top fiv most activ agnts in th Wst En. Dfinitions ock - offic accommoation, xcluing offics unr construction Floorspac - n intrnal ara, unlss othrwis stat Availabl - offic spac availabl for immiat occupation Rat - availabl offics as a proportion of total stock Tak-up - compl transactions whr offics ar l or sol to an occupir Nw - bran nw builings or builings vlop bhin a rain faça Rfurbish - builings which hav unrgon a major rfurbishmnt Sconhan Gra A - prviously occupi highr quality spac with faturs such as... air-conitioning or rais floors Insi this ition Sconhan Gra B - prviously occupi lowr quality spac with faturs such as cntral hating or primr trunking commntary 1 2 Tak-up 3 Futur supply 4 Construction complion - vlopmnt whr th main contract has rach practical complion Dvlopmnt 5 invstmnt 6 Long-Trm - avrag calculat sinc th 1st Quartr 2005 summary 7 vickipia 8 Construction start - vlopmnt whr th main contract has commnc, normally xcluing molition or stripping out tuckrman.co.uk 1

3 victoria Offic Rport 2016 TUCKERMAN victoria Offic Rport 2016 TUCKERMAN Tak-up stock lvls ar at a twnty-yar low, with availability as at 31st Dcmbr 2015 staning at 165,143 sq ft across only 35 units, rprsnting a rop of 47% on 2014 an 78% on At th largr n of th siz rang, this is largly xplain through th numbr of largr schms unr construction; namly Nova south an North, vr, 15 Wilton Roa, an 65 Buckingham Gat. Barring Wilton Roa an 65 Buckingham Gat which livr in 2017, ths will b livring in Q2 an Q3 2016, totalling ovr 770,000 sq ft of high quality Gra A offics bwn thm. in, Lan scuritis ZigZag was th only offic schm to livr uring Th chart blow shows clarly that whilst th fall in availability is across th boar, it is most ramatic at th smallr n of th siz rang, particularly sub 5,000 sq ft, whr th numbr of availabl units has falln from 120 in 2013, to 39 in 2014 an just 20 at th n of Whilst mor smallr units ar xpct to hit th mark uring 2016, this total is not xpct to ris substantially in th nar to mium trm, an unlikly to vr rach th lvls of This is u to th fact that many of th smallr offic-to-rsintial vlopmnts hav bgun, complly transforming som strs, such as Buckingham Gat. Howvr, unlik th largr floor plats provi in th nw schms, th smallr floor plats ar unlikly to b rplac in yars to com through nw vlopmnt. Th largr builings, bing mark as 2016 prls, ar typically guiing rntal lvls in xcss of 70 psf on th lowr floors, with no spcific rnt stat for th prmium uppr floors, although xpctations ar in th mi to lat 80 s for th first tim. With such low availability at th smallr n, rcor rntal lvls ar continually bing brokn, oftn in off-mark transactions. Gra A spac 32% of total 5,000-10,000 sq ft own 65% s to chang sharply in 2016 as nw schms rach th mark Prim Rnts (GBP) 120 (sconary rnts) psf (prim rnts) psf Tak Up vs Trns million Tak-up Total 593,500 sq ft Tak-up Gra A spac 62% of total incluing two notabl ltings ovr 80,000 sq ft AV sq ft Tak-Up sq ft Tak up uring 2015 has falln from 818,000 sq ft to 593,500 sq ft, in 99 transactions, rprsnting a fall of 27.5% in sq footag l from Th lowst sinc Although a fall was vint in all siz bracks, it was most vint in th 5,000 sq ft plus rang, an last in th sub 2,000 sq ft, at just 5%. This ruc tak-up figur is an inicator of th hug amount of spac currntly unr construction at th uppr n of th siz spctrum, with th fall in numbr of als a factor of th substantial loss of smallr units to rsintial convrsion. Th formr is xpct to s a strong corrction uring 2016, whilst th lattr may b lss swift to bounc back. it shoul b not that thr wr thr sizabl pr-ls, ths bing to Pr at vrs W1, an two als to Avnt an Egon Zhnr at Nova south, which account for an aitional 80,000 sq ft bwn thm for 2016 s figurs. intrstingly, 44% of als blow 10,000 sq ft wr for sub 3-yar trms, compar with 11% abov 10,000 sq ft. Dvlopmnt sits such as 33 Grosvnor Plac, 4 Grosvnor Plac an Portlan Hous (albit lay) hav prov to b a rich sourc of tnants for th nw schms in victoria. Howvr, with only on schm Lan scuritis ZigZag compling in 2015, th supply has simply not bn thr to m man. Accoringly, total tak up was own. Dspit a fall in tak up, thr hav bn a numbr of high profil ltings, not last thos at ZigZag to Jupitr (prl of 56,000 sq ft agr in 2014) an most rcntly th lting of 92,000 sq ft to Dutsch Bank s Privat Walth arm rlocating from th city to victoria. in of th 16 als for Gra A spac abov 5,000 sq ft in victoria, tn wr from victoria tnants monstrating thir continu confinc in th ara as wll as rcognition of th hugly improving amnity offring Availabl to Occupy Dcmbr 2015 Sq Ft Sq ft Availabl 2015 Lting 0 to 2,000 sq ft 2,001 to 5,000 sq ft 5,001 to 10,000 sq ft 10,001 plus sq ft 0-2,000 2,001-5,000 5,001-10, ,000 2,001-5,000 5,001-10, Tak up by unit Siz 0 to 2,000 sq ft 2,001 to 5,000 sq ft 5,001 to 10,000 sq ft 10,001 plus sq ft 10, ,001+ TOTAL TOTAL , , , ,000 2 tuckrman.co.uk tuckrman.co.uk 3

4 victoria Offic Rport 2016 TUCKERMAN victoria Offic Rport 2016 TUCKERMAN Futur Supply Rail an Hotl Th low total availability lvls of 2015 will b substantially improv in 2016, primarily through th nw vlopmnts of Nova North an Nova south, an vr, with 65 Buckingham Gat an 25 Wilton Roa bringing circa 200,000 sq ft to th mark in Lack of stock at th lowr siz rangs is likly to riorat as no nw vlopmnts catr to this brack, an this will naturally continu to hav an ffct on rntal valus, particularly bwn 2,000 an 5,000 sq ft. Th impning loss of Portlan Hous to rsintial will compoun this position markly, which is of concrn, givn th incubator status that it has hl for som tim, nabling firms to grow in to th largr builings, within th sam gographic ara. 4 victoria str is still languishing in pr-vlopmnt phas but will provi 120,000 sq ft of quality rfurbish spac in u cours. Th planning of 55 Broaway now inclus 15,000 sq ft of offic spac in th lowr floors as th plannrs rjct th initial proposals of pur rsintial. 4 Matthw Parkr str, th hom of th consrvativ party will offr various floors of rfurbish offic spac uring 2016 as th ownrs took th cision to rain th builing in commrcial us rathr than sk a rsintial consnt. it is worth noting that all of th abov ar proviing units of 5,000 sq ft an abov, an that no nw vlopmnts will b proviing ltabl units of blow this lvl, raising th liklihoo that th numbr of smallr floor plats is likly to rmain low. Grosvnor ar prsntly consiring thir position on th Buckingham Palac Roa trrac, which currntly provis units within this siz rang, its potntial loss woul tak away a substantial lmnt of th total sub 2,000 sq floor plat stock. Total spculativ spac unr construction 760,000 sq ft Th lack of amnity offring in th ara has prviously bn an issu for incoming tnants, but nw ltings to ibrica, M Rstaurant an Jami s italian at Zig Zag an Kings Gat hav nhanc victoria str. it buils on what was crat at carinal Plac an Nova will continu to improv th profil of th ara as a stination for foo. in, Nova will inclu a foo quartr of ightn iffrnt rstaurants an grab an go concpts, bringing nams an brans not prviously sn in victoria. chfs lik Jason Athrton an Jami Olivr (Barbcoa) will opn rstaurants. D&D Lonon (Blubir, Quaglino s) an Will Rickr will hav nw outls in th schm too. Othr cuisin is rprsnt by Bon Dais ramn bar an Franco Manca pizza. it s a massiv chang for th ara an victoria will finally hav a foo an aftr-hours offring which is appropriat for such a ky part of th Wst En, so clos to a major rail trminal. 65 Buckingham Gat is unrgoing a rvlopmnt of th formr Rolls Royc HQ towr an th poium lvl. Th Palmr str rail on th Eastrn si has now bn clos an will b rplac by two nw rstaurants an mor high-n rail. Srvic Offics Th Goring Rstaurant has rciv a Michlin star, th scon stablishmnt to scur on in th ara. shphrs rstaurant ropn aftr a chang of ownrship an comprhnsiv rfurbishmnt. victoria has bn unrprovi with halth clubs historically, howvr Gymbox has now opn in 123 victoria str an provis th first nw halth club in th ara for many yars. Th 73 room Nalr Hotl opn in Novmbr on Palac str. it is tuck away bhin th HQ of th Girl Guis, but wll locat for th station an th Palac. vry stylish but iscr, it s anothr boutiqu hotl for th ara an is a rally goo aition whn compar to th mor corporat vnus. shiva is also vloping th 53 broom nw-buil vanon Hous Hotl but it has hit som archaological issus an opning of this mmbrs-club styl hotl is now projct for Grosvnor Plac has now rciv planning an will bcom a Pninsular Hotl in partnrship with th Grosvnor Estat. svral tnants hav rlocat from th proprty alray, notably Jupitr Ass Managmnt into Zig Zag. Th spac is now bing r-l short trm. schms with planning for rsintial such as 21 Dartmouth str an 84 Ecclston squar coul possibly com back to th mark as commrcial rfurbishmnts, as th valus rach parity. Rgus has bn ask by th OFT to ruc its srvic offic ominanc aftr taking ovr Avanta an svral of its victoria cntrs coul b unr thrat. Most of th fiv cntrs it currntly oprats ar rlativly short trm howvr an thr is likly to b a n for furthr quality srvic accommoation in th futur an w woul xpct this sctor to continu to xpan. Th Offic Group hav sign up on Huson s Plac, to th rar of th station an will opn a nw 16,000 sq ft srvic offic las from Nwork Rail. Dvlopmnt Offic to Rsintial Convrsion in Victoria (Sq ft) SQ FT Dvlop Unrway Consnt In Planning 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Dvlopmnt was particularly strong uring th yar with significant intrst from both hom an ovrsas in both rsintial an mix us schms vn givn th changs to th planning rgim. Nova will provi 600,000 sq ft of offics an 85,000 sq ft of cafés an rstaurants plus two acrs of public ralm. TFL s victoria station upgra is a 700 million projct with th north tick hall opning in 2016, proviing accss irctly from carinal Plac an works finally comping Nw scotlan Yar is likly to go for planning unr th nw ownrship though th ambitious plans might b lss ramatic than has bn prciv. Grosvnor Garns Hous now has planning an is likly to start on sit in Q stockly Hous now has planning for a nw buil schm an it will b intrsting to s if this gs lost to rsintial or if it rmains in commrcial us. On Buckingham Gat is wll unrway with many flats alray sol. TFL s Broaway Haquartrs is to b sol with planning an is likly to commnc in Th formr Wstminstr Kingsway collg at 6 castl Lan was sol for rsintial convrsion an this is now unrway for vlopmnt into 31 units. 21 Dartmouth str was put up for sal with consnt for rsintial convrsion by Hnly invstmnts. Anothr famous victoria offic towr - Millbank Towr - was submitt for rsintial convrsion. Th 600,000 sq ft schm will inclu a poium halth club an cultural cntr. Th improvmnts to th victoria Transport Hub an will inclu a nw tick hall ntranc an it will nlarg th currnt victoria Lin tick hall. Ovr 300 mrs of nw tunnls ar bing construct linking th north an south halls with th north tick hall will opn in Th south tick hall opning in Ecclston squar is likly to b turn into rsintial. Th commrcial tnants hav now vacat this 70,000 sq ft block to th rar of th station. Parnll Hous, opposit th station, is unrgoing rvlopmnt an will provi 85,000 sq ft in on of th only larg-scal offic rfurbishmnts. Loss of commrcial to rsintial was a continuing issu uring 2015 with a total of 4.2 million sq ft ithr alray lost or unr thrat from chang of us, as pr th graph opposit. Th majority of offics so far convrt hav tn to b ithr prio styl or in sconary locations. Th rgnration of th Nova sit has also rplnish th stock lvls with highr quality corporat spac. Howvr, th lack of smallr units is now an issu an as rnts consquntly ris, th valu of commrcial spac is raching parity with rsintial. 4 tuckrman.co.uk tuckrman.co.uk 5

5 victoria Offic Rport 2016 TUCKERMAN victoria Offic Rport 2016 TUCKERMAN Invstmnt Th total turnovr of invstmnt sals was again at 1.75 billion, continuing th rcor lvl s by th prvious yar. Thr wr lss sals with rsintial consnt, but it is still likly that aroun 400,000 sq ft will b takn out of th commrcial stock, spcially if 33 Grosvnor Plac rcivs consnt for halthcar us. castl Lan, 33 Horsfrry Roa, 29 Grat Pr str an 33 Grycoat str wr sol with consnt for rsintial. 15 Dacr str an 21 Tothill str wr sol with th intntion of convrting to hotl us. Origin of funs Mil East Asian Europan Amrican UK Fun UK Dvlopr Invstmnt Dals 2015 Arss Siz (sq m) Siz (sq ft) Pric Yil % Purchasr Buckingham Palac R 34, , ,000, GAW capital Partnrs 33 Grosvnor Plac 17, , ,000, clvlan clinic 5 Howick Plac 13, , ,000, vgv mbh 39 victoria str 8,222 88, ,000, Ho B Holings 33 Horsfrry Roa 15, , ,000,000 - Brockton capital LLP 1 Nathous Plac 8,769 94, ,500, Thranl invstmnts 3-8a Whithall Plac 8,640 92,999 80,600, Lasall invstmnt Managmnt victoria str 7,581 81,596 78,000, Maow Partnrs Th origin of funs was fairly broa, but Amrica was again a significant invstor with fwr UK funs than last yar. 6-7 Grosvnor Pl 3,304 35,569 61,000,000 - Zaman Group 21 Tothill str 5,695 61,300 55,400, Whitbra Group plc 6 castl Lan 2,787 30,000 26,500,000 - saraar Yils continu to comprss for th mor institutional stock, though ths only account for six of th als uring th yar. 15 Dacr st 2,903 31,248 22,500,000 - Whitbra Group plc 58 Buckingham Gat 2,136 23,000 21,000,000 - swir Buckingham Gat 1,184 12,747 16,500,000 - Ali Estats 29 Grat Pr str 1,253 13,484 15,600, Wasp invstmnts Timlin Buckingham Gat 1,327 14,289 15,000, chval Proprty Holings Limit 33 Grycoat str 1,579 16,996 14,000, North Ral Estat Partnrs Grat Pr str 1,583 17,039 13,599,999 - GPs Holings 14 Ol Qun str 381 4,106 4,500,000 - Privat Ovrsas invstor Zigzag complion January 2016 Nova North 184,000 sq ft complion Jun 2016 North Tick hall complion Dcmbr 2016 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Summary Th worrying ruction in th total commrcial supply u to rsintial convrsion has stall, but mor u to valus raching parity, than any planning intrvntion. Nova South 296,000 sq ft complion April 2016 Nova Foo 85,000 sq ft complion Sptmbr 2016 Th xtraorinary chang in th victoria commrcial proprty nvironmnt will b raching maturity uring 2016/17 with th complion of first Zig Zag thn Nova. Onc th rail an rstaurant facilitis ar compl, th location will fit samlssly with carinal Plac. victoria continus its rapi journy towars maturity as a pivotal part of th Wst En. W s rnts continuing to incras as smallr floorplats man mor of a prmium. Furthr corporats from th Wst En an city will also look towars victoria as a viabl altrnativ to th traitional locations. Th nxt stp is to rvlop th islan sit opposit th station an crat a mor comfortabl xprinc for visitors, rsints an offic occupirs to njoy thir nw surrounings. 6 tuckrman.co.uk farbrothr.com tuckrman.co.uk 7

6 victoria Offic Rport 2016 TUCKERMAN VICKIPEDIA SW1 CITY OF WESTMINSTER AN ENCYCLOPEDIC KNOWLEDGE OF VICTORIA victoria is a vibrant part of th Wst En of Lonon an provis an lctric mixtur of history, art, cultur an commrc. As th political hart of th Unit Kingom an hom to th scon busist train station in th country, thr is an incribly ivrs rang of popl who both liv an work in th ara. is our victoria profil-raising wbsit which showcass th bst of th nw amnitis. HOTELS Th Nalr Hotl Th Nalr has opn up nxt oor to th st Jams Thatr an is a boutiqu hotl offring immaculat, stylish rooms at an afforabl pric. Thr s no brakfast ara but Nsprsso machins in vry room an lots of atris on th oorstp. vry charming srvic too! RESTAURANTS Th Goring Dining Room Th Goring has rciv its Michlin star, th scon vnu in victoria to scur on, Quilon bing th first. This typically English hotl vn has its own croqu lawn too. Shphr s Rstaurant A Wstminstr institution, this formr sistr rstaurant to Langan s has ha a suprb makovr an now again provis licious cuisin for th politicos of Parliamnt. its harty (an plntiful) foo an anothr xcllnt stak plac for victoria. Uni on Ebury r sushi by ay an cocktails by night, Uni is a vry buzzy rstaurant an bar in Blgravia. it s a tru hin gm for th local rsints but is so clos to th station, its worth ropping in for lunch or a chky rink with th Blgravians aftr work. MRstaurants crat by th popl bhin Hawksmoor, this is a stak an sushi plac with a lot of styl. Hug cilings an a vry ramatic backrop plus a privat mmbrs club too. vry cool in. Th Cambrig r Café A funky boutiqu hotl, a cool café an a cocktail bar in th basmnt. This is a cral to grav vnu that has a sistr hotl in Brighton. Thy hav import som of that vib into victoria an it rally works. Gustoso on Willow Plac A family italian with a vry warm wlcom an vry authntic cuisin. it s a firm favourit with many tnants in th ara an th rlax atmosphr maks it a grat plac to g ug into. Off th batn track nough to b qui, but busy nough to b lots of fun! DID YOU KNOW? Th nw Nova schm will hav 18 rstaurant outls. FOR MORE information ABOUT victoria visit

7 A firm is only as strong as th sum of its parts. W rcognis an mploy th bst popl with th skills an intgrity ncssary to provi our clints with th highst lvl of srvic. MARK FISHER MRics Bsc (Hons) Managing Dirctor +44 (0) mfishr@tuckrman.co.uk PHILIP MARTIN B Eng (Hons) Financ Dirctor +44 (0) pmartin@tuckrman.co.uk GUY BOWRING MRics Dirctor +44 (0) gbowring@tuckrman.co.uk ALEX LEWIS Bsc (Hons) FRics irrv Dirctor +44 (0) alwis@tuckrman.co.uk KEITH HARRIS MRics Dirctor +44 (0) kharris@tuckrman.co.uk HARRY CORMACK MRics Bsc (Hons) Associat Dirctor +44 (0) hcormack@tuckrman.co.uk HARRIET DE FREITAS Msc Ral Estat survyor - Agncy/Profssional +44 (0) hfritas@tuckrman.co.uk NATALIE MOSKWA AcMA Accountant/Financial controllr +44 (0) nmoskwa@tuckrman.co.uk Contact Tuckrman 1 castl Lan Lonon sw1e 6DR For furthr information call tuckrman.co.uk This rsarch is availabl in PDF format. This publication has bn carfully prpar an it is intn for gnral guianc only. No rsponsibility is accpt by Farbrothr for any rrors or omissions. Th information contain hrin shoul not b rli upon to rplac profssional avic on spcific mattrs an is not, in whol or in part, to b publish, rprouc or rfrr to without prior approval. information may b subjct to rvisions in subsqunt itions Tuckrman. All rights rsrv. Dsign an Prouc by sars Davis sarsavis.com

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