World Airport Traffic Forecast

Transcription

1 World Airport Traffic Forecast ACI-World Bank Annual Aviation Symposium 9 th April 2018 Aram Karagueuzian Manager, Airport Traffic Statistics and Forecasts, ACI World

2 Outline World Airport Traffic Forecast Approaches to forecasting ACI World forecasts Key results

3 Demand Aggregation Forecast horizons: Supply? levels: Forecasts are produced from data, HIGH meaning Global Very they long-term reflect traffic the (20+ market years) as a whole. As a rule of thumb European Long-term traffic (5~20 years) Low-level: Supply-driven High-level: UK Mid-term traffic (3~5 Demand-driven years) Short-term: London traffic (1-2 Supply-driven years) Long-term: Demand-driven LHR Very traffic short-term ( < 1 year) Specific Operational operations (the next forecasts few low within weeks, the days airport even hours) Aggregation level SUPPLY Airport traffic forecasts Demand-driven or Supply-driven? Forecast horizon DEMAND

4 Approaches to forecasting High level Macro indicators in econometric and time series models Business as usual Low level Microeconomic (e.g. route level and market considerations)

5 Reconciling operational and strategic forecasts across aggregation levels (from Macro to Micro): Hierarchical/grouped time series reconciliation Hyndman, Rob J., et al. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series." Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 55.9 (2011): Hyndman, Rob J., Alan J. Lee, and Earo Wang. "Fast computation of reconciled forecasts for hierarchical and grouped time series." Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 97 (2016): across time horizons (from high- to low-frequency data): Temporal Hierarchies Athanasopoulos, George, et al. "Forecasting with temporal hierarchies." European Journal of Operational Research (2017): Kourentzes, Nikolaos, Fotios Petropoulos, and Juan R. Trapero. "Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies." International Journal of Forecasting 30.2 (2014):

6 World Airport Traffic Forecasts Covers the 2017 to 2040 period, using 2016 as reference year Features traffic volumes, growth rates, market shares and contribution to growth for Total passengers, broken down into international and domestic Total air cargo Total aircraft movements Presented at global, regional and national levels with over 100 countries Includes analyses, summary tables, predicted rankings, various charts/graphs and the full dataset of forecasts

7 Coverage Includes forecasts for 113 country markets Representing 86% of the global traffic recorded in the 2016 World Airport Traffic Report (WATR) Fully calibrated to the latest data and adjusted to remain self-consistent all the way down to 2040 WATF coverage by region Region Number of countries % Passenger traffic covered Africa % Asia-Pacific % Europe % Latin America-Caribbean % Middle East % North America % World %

8 Model selection Short term Primarily time series methods Decomposition models; Exponential smoothing; Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA); Model selection based on crossvalidation Medium and Long term Primarily causal methods Linear regression; Log-linear, Linear-log, Log-log; Trend projection; Kenza model; ACI Guide to World Airport Traffic Forecasts

9 25 20 Forecasted ratio of international to domestic passenger traffic ( ) Passenger traffic will double within 15 years Approximate point of parity between international and domestic traffic 1.00 Passengers (billions) International traffic 74% of domestic traffic 0.74 International traffic 90% the size of domestic traffic Domestic passengers International passengers

10 Passengers (billions) Forecasted ratio of passengers in emerging vs advanced economies ( ) The emerging-to-advanced ratio is currently 80% Currently emerging markets predicted to surpass advanced ones after 2022 The aviation market of currently emerging economies will be 1.6 times that of advanced economies 5 - Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 10

11 Aviation s center of gravity moves eastward Top 10 Countries Total passenger traffic: Top 10 countries Rank USA USA China 2 China China USA 3 Japan Japan India 4 UK UK Indonesia 5 Germany India UAE 6 Brazil Spain Vietnam 7 India Germany Japan 8 Spain Brazil UK 9 Turkey Indonesia Thailand 10 France Turkey Brazil

12 Contribution to forecasted global growth 10.8% +1.7 B NAM LAC 10.0% +1.5 B EUR 15.3% +2.2 B MEA 10.6% +1.5 B 51.9% 1.4% +208 M AFR ASP +7.6 B World passengers billion

13 Summary - World Airport Traffic Forecast Supply versus demand driven forecasts; ACI world forecasts: Macro, demand driven; Passenger traffic doubles in 15 years; Parity between international and domestic traffic in 2040; Majority of traffic in currently emerging economies by 2022; ASP major contributor for forecasted global growth;

14 Leading, representing and serving the global airport community