Expenditure Share of Visitors Visitor Expenditure expenditure nights per visitor

Transcription

1 Table 23 Modelled domestic overnight visitor expenditure (a) in the top 20 regions ranked by expenditure, including airfares and long distance transport costs Year ended 31 March 2010 (a) (b) Expenditure Share of Visitors Visitor Expenditure expenditure nights per visitor Expenditure per night Average length of stay $ million % '000 '000 $ $ Nights Rank Region State/Territory (a) (b) (c) (d) 1 Melbourne Vic Sydney NSW Gold Coast Qld Brisbane Qld Tropical North Queensland Qld Experience Perth WA Sunshine Coast Qld Adelaide SA Mid North Coast NSW South Coast NSW Northern Rivers NSW Canberra ACT Hunter NSW Australia' s South West WA Darwin NT Western Vic Hobart and Surrounds Tas Central Queensland Qld Snowy Mountains NSW Central NSW NSW (c) Top 20 regions (d) Total Australia Expenditure excludes major purchases such as motor vehicles. Number of visitors do not sum to the total as visitor numbers are calculated as net visits. More information on the expenditure allocation method is in the Methodology section. Figures may not add to the total due to rounding. Total Australia includes small amounts that cannot be allocated to a particular State/Territory. Base: All figures relate to Australian residents aged 15 years and over. Source: Tourism Research Australia expenditure allocation method applied to 2010 National Visitor Survey data. How to read this table: Table 23 shows that, during the year ended 31 March 2010, there were 2.9 million domestic overnight visitors to Mid North Coast who spent a total of $1.5 billion or 3% of total domestic overnight visitor expenditure in Australia. This expenditure includes airfares and long distance transport costs. Travel by Australians: March Quarter

2 Table 23 Modelled domestic overnight visitor expenditure (a) in the top 20 regions ranked by expenditure, including airfares and long distance transport costs Year ended 31 March 2011 Expenditure (a) Share of Visitors (b) Visitor Expenditure Expenditure Average expenditure nights per visitor per night length of stay $ million % '000 '000 $ $ Nights Rank Region State/territory 1 Melbourne Vic Sydney NSW Gold Coast Qld Brisbane Qld Experience Perth WA Sunshine Coast Qld Mid North Coast NSW Adelaide SA Tropical North Queensland Qld South Coast NSW Canberra ACT Hunter NSW Australia's South West WA Northern Rivers NSW Western Vic Hobart and Surrounds Tas Central NSW NSW Darwin NT High Country Vic Australia's North West WA Top 20 regions (c) Total Australia (d) (a) (b) (c) (d) Expenditure excludes major purchases such as motor vehicles. Number of visitors do not sum to the total as visitor numbers are calculated as net visits. More information on the expenditure allocation method is in the Methodology section. Figures may not add to the total due to rounding. Total Australia includes small amounts that cannot be allocated to a particular state/territory. Base: All figures relate to Australian residents aged 15 years and over. Source: Tourism Research Australia expenditure allocation method applied to 2011 National Visitor Survey data. How to read this table: Table 23 shows that during the year ended 31 March 2011, there were 1.2 million domestic overnight visitors to Tropical North Queensland who spent a total of $1. billion or 3% of total domestic overnight visitor expenditure in Australia. This expenditure includes airfares and long distance transport costs. Travel by Australians: March Quarter

3 Table 10 Visitors by country of residence and main purpose of journey for selected regions (a) Year ended 31 March 2010 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast Tropical North Queensland '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 Country of residence New Zealand Japan Hong Kong Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Taiwan Thailand Korea China India Other Asia USA Canada United Kingdom Germany Scandinavia France Italy Netherlands Switzerland Other Europe Other countries (including backpackers) Holiday Visiting friends & relatives Business Education Employment Other (excluding backpackers) Holiday Visiting friends & relatives Business Education Employment Other Backpackers Total Base: All visitors aged 15 years and over. Continued... Note: Numbers sum to more than total visitors because some visitors stopover in more than one region. (a) Visitors who spent at least one night in the region. International Visitors in Australia: March Quarter

4 Table 10 Visitors by country of residence and main purpose of journey for selected regions (a) Year ended 31 March 2011 Tropical North Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast Queensland '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 Country of residence New Zealand Japan Hong Kong Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Taiwan Thailand Korea China India Other Asia USA Canada United Kingdom Germany Scandinavia France Italy Netherlands Switzerland Other Europe Other countries (including backpackers) Holiday Visiting friends & relatives Business Education Employment Other (excluding backpackers) Holiday Visiting friends & relatives Business Education Employment Other Backpackers Total Base: All visitors aged 15 years and over. Continued... Note: Numbers sum to more than total visitors because some visitors stopover in more than one region. (a) Visitors who spent at least one night in the region. International Visitors in Australia: March Quarter

5 GOLD COAST BACKGROUND A summary of room stock for hotels, motels and serviced apartments within the Gold Coast Tourism Region for the December 2009 quarter is below. GOLD COAST REGIONS DECEMBER QUARTER 2009 December Quarter 2009 Gold Coast Hotels/Motels Establishments Rooms Occupancy ARR RevPAR Hotels 26 6, % $151.7 $111.6 Motels 30 1, % $ $71.89 Serviced Apartments 98 5,8 70.% $ $9.02 Total Gold Coast Tourism Region 15 13, % $10.1 $99.92 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics / Dransfield. Figures in Italics have been calculated. All figures are for establishments with 15 or more rooms 2009 IN REVIEW In 2009, Gold Coast hotels recorded revpar decline of 3.2%, improved over our 8.7% forecast. Supply decreases of 2.%, differed from 2.0% growth expectations and demand dropped by 2.9% leaving occupancy above expectations FORECAST ACTUAL 2009 Var RevPAR -8.7% -3.2% 5.5% Supply 2.0% -2.% -.% Demand -.0% -2.9% 1.1% Occupancy 62.8% 66.% 3.6% ARR -3.0% -2.7% 0.3% In the first half of 2010, Gold Coast hotels recorded revpar increase of 2.0%, the driver being a 3.2% reduction in supply. Rate growth escaped the market increasing by only 0.7% compared to % growth expectations. SUPPLY In 2009, Gold Coast room stock decreased by approximately 320 rooms and well below expectations. There has been a net decrease in supply recorded since 200. In 2010 we also expect a net decrease in supply of 1.3% with a 3.2% reduction in the first half to be offset by the opening of Peppers Broadbeach (the Oracle) which had previously not been factored in as short term accommodation. Whilst this building is over 500 apartments we have assessed about 200 as joining the short term letting pool. The Hilton and Soul buildings will likely add another 320 apartments/rooms to the market. DEMAND In 2009, demand declined for the fourth time in 5 years by 2.9%, however improved over prior expectations. In 2010 this trend continues with demand reducing 0.6% in the first half. Demand has been constrained by the reduction in supply. The Gold Coast also recorded a high 76.3% domestic content, reduced from 78.1% in Demand performance has been somewhat contradictory to key indicators where Gold Coast visitors declined for the 12 months to December 2009, however increased by 3% for the 12 months to June Whilst outperforming visitor levels in other parts of Queensland, from both international and domestic visitors, this is not reflected in hotel demand. Medium to long term demand growth is supported by the $100m Gold Coast Airport redevelopment. It will substantially increase aviation capacity to double the size of the existing terminal. The TFC have forecast an increase in domestic visitor nights in Queensland of 0.6% over the period to Growth in international visitor nights to Queensland is presently forecast to increase by an average of 3.6% to Combining the TFC forecasts for international and domestic visitor nights in Queensland, the weighted average growth in visitor nights in the Gold Coast to 2018 is expected to be 1.%, slightly above last year s expectations of 1.0%. In 2010, demand is forecast to increase by 1.0% as improvement takes hold in the second half. We expect demand growth to average % to 2012 and long term growth to average 3.2% to 2018, once the new higher quality properties are complete. This represents a slight upgrade through the medium term. The increase of three large five star projects will grow market demand and reposition room rates over time. An average supply increase of 1.5% is expected over the medium term to 2012, once withdrawals are considered. This is a 500 room downgrade on prior expectations or 3.%. An average supply increase of 2.% is expected over the full forecast period to 2018 as supply recommences from about DRANSFIELD HOTEL FUTURES 2010

6 GOLD COAST CONCLUSION The financial crisis has helped the Gold Coast avoid oversupply with substantial withdrawals. It has also dampened short term demand, restricting rate and revpar growth. Occupancy rates fell to a six year low in Over the medium term, occupancy is expected to recover slightly to reach 71% in 2012 with a similar level over the entire forecast period to Average room rates are expected to grow abnormally in 2011 and 2012 due to the large volume of much higher quality stock opening. In the long term, 3.1% p.a. growth is expected which is ahead of prior expectations. The Gold Coast market reached its cyclic peak in 2007, consistent with Australia as a whole. The trough has been quickly reached in 2009 due to the unusual market circumstances and correction from supply withdrawal. RevPAR growth of 3.% is forecast for 2010, a significant downgrade from the previous 2009 forecast, however assisted by a much higher 2009 base. We are, however, forecasting four years of strong growth from 2011 such that revpar growth is expected to average 6.5% over the 3 years to 2012 and exceed 6% for the three years after Long term revpar growth is expected to average.0% over the forecast period. This represents a 3.9% increase in real revpar expectations caused by the higher base and improved quality of supply. GOLD COAST TOURISM REGION Room Room $2009 Year Night Rooms* % Night % ARR % RevPAR % Real Occ Supply Chng Demand Chng Chng Chng RevPAR HISTORICAL 2000,836,060 13,29 1.8% 2,988, % $ % $ % $ % 2001,835,890 13,29 0.0% 3,101, % $ % $ % $ % 2002,779,863 13, % 3,151, % $ % $6.99.9% $ % 2003,799,223 13,19 0.% 3,163,96 0.% $ % $ % $ % 200,832,758 13,20 0.7% 3,360, % $ % $ % $ % 2005,856,61 13, % 3,350,81-0.3% $ % $ % $ % 2006,807,950 13, % 3,32, % $ % $ % $ % 2007,789,328 13,121-0.% 3,38,09 1.8% $ % $ % $ % 2008,936,110 13,52 3.1% 3,296, % $ % $ % $ % 2009,819,78 13,205-2.% 3,201, % $ % $ % $ % Actual Average % 3.3% 2.9% 2.7% $ % FORECAST 2010,756,32 13, % 3,233, % $ % $ % $ % 2011,905,97 13,1 3.1% 3,39, % $ % $ % $ % ,038,65 13, % 3,598, % $ % $ % $ % Average %.0%.0% 6.5% $ % ,130,257 1, % 3,760,630.5% $ % $ % $ % 201 5,377,615 1,733.8% 3,929,858.5% $ % $ % $ % ,619,608 15,396.5%,07,75 3.0% $ % $ % $ % ,760,098 15, %,108,70 1.5% $ % $ % $ % ,86,99 16, %,170, % $ % $ % $ % ,93,197 16, %,232,68 1.5% $ % $ % $ % Average % 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% $ % Total Forecast Average 2.% 3.2% 3.1%.0% $ % Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics / Dransfield. *Room numbers are annualised. Note: Growth rates for 2003 have been adjusted as advised by the ABS following the break in the time series DRANSFIELD HOTEL FUTURES