Latest Tourism Trends. Humphrey Walwyn Head of VisitEngland Research

Transcription

1 Latest Tourism Trends Humphrey Walwyn Head of VisitEngland Research 1

2 Inbound Tourism 2

3 UK inbound long term trend Spend per visit up in 2017, reversing the recent trend 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% Visits Spending Source: International Passenger Survey 3

4 Where did 2017 growth come from? 2017 % change vs ALL VISITS (million) % Spend ( billion) % Nights (million) % 2017 Visits (million) % change vs Holiday % VFR % Business 8.8-4% Miscellaneous 3.1 3% 2017 Visits (million) % change vs Europe % Long haul % Source: International Passenger Survey 4

5 Strong growth in the first half of the year, slowing at the end Visits made in each quarter (000s) 12,000 10, % +9% +4% -5% 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Source: International Passenger Survey 5

6 Inbound update first half of 2018 YTD 2018 (Jan - Jun) % change vs ALL VISITS (million) % Spend ( billion) % Nights (million) % Both visits and spend down from a record first half of 2017, with a small increase in spend per visit Visits % change Q1 (Jan-March) -6% Q2 (April-June) -8% Both Q1 and Q2 down on strong 2017 numbers but still the second highest ever for each quarter Source: International Passenger Survey 6

7 Inbound details first half of 2018 H % change vs Holiday -9% VFR 2% Business -8% Miscellaneous -24% Holiday visits and spend both fell from 2017 but were still the 2 nd highest ever 9% up on 2016 H Visits 000s % change vs Europe 13,035-8% Long haul 4,839-4% Visits from Europe slip back below 2016 levels Visits from long haul still 19% above 2016! Source: International Passenger Survey 7

8 UK regional overview Visits (000) 2017 Growth New record Region Q1 & Q Visits (000) Q1 & Q Growth UK TOTAL 19,184 17,874-7% Scotland 1,306 1,692 30% Wales % England 16,832 15,394-9% London 19,828 4% yes Rest of England 16,496 3% yes Total England 34,304 4% yes Scotland 3,210 17% yes Wales 1,079 0% UK TOTAL 39,214 4% yes Source: International Passenger Survey London 9,998 8,968-10% Rest Of England 7,731 7,276-6% North East % North West 1,485 1,468-1% Yorkshire % West Midlands 1, % East Midlands % East Of England 1, % South West 1,152 1,032-10% South East 2,401 2,293-5% 8

9 Top inbound markets Visits (000s) 1 France 3,956 2 USA 3,910 3 Germany 3,380 4 Irish Republic 3,029 5 Spain 2,413 6 Netherlands 2,136 7 Poland 1,807 8 Italy 1,779 9 Belgium 1, Australia 1, Switzerland Romania Canada Sweden Denmark 730 Source: International Passenger Survey, 2017 Spend ( m) 1 USA 3,643 2 Germany 1,581 3 France 1,425 4 Australia 1,194 5 Spain 1,061 6 Irish Republic Saudi Arabia Italy Netherlands China UAE Canada Switzerland India Sweden 451 Spend per visit, 2017: Saudi Arabia 5,342 Kuwait 3,172 Bahrain 2,530 Qatar 2,416 China 2,059 UAE 1,650 Nigeria 1,599 Australia 1,093 Brazil 1,078 Japan 1,011 USA 932 Russia 826 India 808 Italy 473 Germany 468 Spain 440 France 360 Netherlands 350 Belgium 343 Romania 317 Irish Republic 310 Poland 218 9

10 Domestic Overnight Tourism 10

11 Domestic holiday trips have grown over the longer term, whilst VFR and business trips have slightly declined Trips (m) Domestic Overnight Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Av. Annual Growth Holiday +1.4% VFR -0.9% Business -0.2% Source: GBTS Average annual growth figure calculated from average of past 12 month % changes from July 2007-July

12 Strong growth in holidays in 2017 and further growth in Recent signs of recovery for VFR and business trips Trips (m) Domestic Overnight Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Av. Annual Growth Holiday +1.4% VFR -0.9% Past 12 Months Holiday +3.6% VFR +3.8% Business -0.2% Business +9.0% 5 Source: GBTS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for July 2018 vs. July

13 The number of domestic holidays taken in 2017 in England equalled the record that was set in 2009 (staycation boom) Domestic holidays in England m Increase in domestic holidays in England in 2017 vs % Source: GBTS Equalled the record previously set in 2009 at the time of the staycation boom 13

14 7 out of 9 English regions increased in domestic holiday trips year on year in 2017 North West 2017 vs increase +17% On par with record volume of 2009 North East 2017 vs increase +24% Highest volume since 2013 Source: GBTS South East 2017 vs decrease -13% But this followed +16% increase in 2016 vs

15 Short trips growth trend continued in 2017, but longer trips also saw growth 35 Trips (m) Domestic Holiday Trips in England Av. Annual Growth 2017 vs % +7% % +3% Source: GBTS 1-3 nights 4+ nights 15

16 All months of 2017 were above the long-term average for domestic holidays in England. Trips (m) 9 Month of domestic holiday trip, England January February March April May June July August September October November December Average Source: GBTS 16

17 Most months of 2018 have been above average for holiday trips to England, with May particularly strong Trips (m) 9 Month of domestic holiday trip, England January February March April May June July August September October November December 17 Source: GBTS Average

18 Domestic Day Visits 18

19 Domestic day visits volume has declined over six years. Value has been flat, and therefore below inflation. Trips (m) Spend ( m) Av. Annual Growth Domestic Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend 70,000 60,000 50,000 Total Day Visits Volume -2.2% Value -0.1% , , ,000 10, Source: GBDVS Average annual growth figure calculated from average of past 12 month % changes from October 2012-October

20 Activities core to tourism have declined in volume at a lower rate than total day visits. Value has increased, but under inflation. Trips (m) Domestic Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Spend ( m) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Av. Annual Growth Core Tourism Activities Volume -1.3% Value +0.4% , ,000 10, Source: GBDVS Average annual growth figure calculated from average of past 12 month % changes from October 2012-October

21 Average Annual Growth for attractions is -1.3%, but this is primarily driven by the last 12 months which declined -9.3% Visits (m) Jan- 12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan- 13 Domestic Day Visits in England Volume of Visits by Main Activity, Rolling 12 Month Trend Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan- 14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan- 15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan- 16 Source: GBDVS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for October 18 vs. October 17. Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan- 17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan- 18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Av. Annual Growth Outdoor leisure -2.1% General day out +0.8% Visiting an attraction -1.3% Core Tourism Activities -1.3% Past 12 Months Outdoor leisure +2.4% General day out +0.1% Visiting an attraction -9.3% Core Tourism Activities %

22 Business Confidence Monitor 22

23 More attractions reported increased visitor numbers than reduced numbers throughout 2017 Percentage of surveyed attractions reporting increased / decreased visitor numbers Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Sep Up Down Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor 23

24 In 2018, attractions reported a tough Easter, but most believe that the summer holiday period was better than in 2017 Percentage of surveyed attractions reporting increased / decreased visitor numbers Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Sep Up Down Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor 24

25 More attractions reported increased visitors as a result of the summer heatwave, but over 1 in 4 stated that their numbers were down as a result. Impact of summer heatwave - attractions % net 20 8 Much more visitors than usual No effect on visitor numbers Slightly more visitors than usual Slightly fewer visitors than usual A lot fewer visitors than usual Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor -Thinking specifically about this year s heat wave in the UK, how has the good weather affected your business? 25

26 Over half of outdoor attractions reported increased visitor numbers as a result of the summer heatwave. Indoor attractions were less positive, with around 1/3 reporting reduced numbers Impact of summer heatwave - attractions % net % net Outdoor Indoor Much more visitors than usual Slightly more visitors than usual No effect on visitor numbers Slightly fewer visitors than usual A lot fewer visitors than usual Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor -Thinking specifically about this year s heat wave in the UK, how has the good weather affected your business? 26

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28 Discover England Fund Research 2019 Experiential travel: c.10 markets - Wellness; learning; food & drink Multi-generational travel: c.7-8 markets 28

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