2019 By the Numbers: Market Analytics

Transcription

1 2019 By the Numbers: Market Analytics JP Ford, CHB, ISHC, Senior Vice President, Global Director of Business Development

2 2 The State of the US Construction Pipeline Fast Facts The latest US Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics (LE), states that the total US Construction Pipeline ended Q with 5,312 Projects/634,501 Rooms, up 7% by projects and 6% by rooms Year-Over-Year (YOY). There are 1,594 projects/208,509 rooms currently Under Construction, up 74 projects or 5% YOY Projects Scheduled to Start Construction in the Next 12 Months, at 2,291 projects/266,878 rooms, are just about even YOY Projects in Early Planning at 1,427 projects/ 159,114 rooms are up 286 projects or 25% YOY There are 3,519 new hotels with nearly 399,000 new rooms forecasted to open in the US through 2020

3 3 US Lodging Real Estate Cycle Last Cycle Peak: Q208 with 5,883 Projects/785,547 Rooms Last Cycle Bottom: Q112 with 2,720 Projects/331,129 Rooms Current Quarter: Q218 with 5,312 Projects/634,501 Rooms Earnings Development Lending Transactions Peak New Hotel Openings Wall St. Activity New Project Announcements Peak Operating Performance Early Transaction Recovery Main Street Debt Availability Conversions/Renovations Early Operating Recovery X

4 4 US Construction Pipeline by Projects and Rooms 600 Under Construction Starts Next 12 Months Early Planning Forecast Rooms (000s) Q218 Year End 18 Projects 3,020 3,645 4,413 4,960 5,151 5,312

5 5 US Construction Pipeline By Project Stage Year-Over-Year Q Q % Variance Projects Rooms Projects Rooms Projects Rooms Under Construction 1, ,509 1, ,710 5% 5% Starts Next 12 Months 2, ,878 2, , % 0.7% Early Planning 1, ,114 1, ,737 25% 18% Total Pipeline 5, ,501 4, ,371 7% 6%

6 6 US Construction Pipeline By Chain Scale with Unbranded Total 1% 2% 13% 3% 9% Projects Rooms Luxury 64 18,436 Upper Upscale ,482 11% 28% Upscale 1, ,143 Upper Midscale 2, ,344 Midscale ,670 Economy 102 9,718 Casino 17 9,385 Unbranded ,323 Total 5, ,501 33% % by rooms

7 7 US Construction Pipeline By Chain Scale with Unbranded Included 12% 2% 1% 4% 11% Projects Rooms Luxury ,197 Upper Upscale ,969 Upscale 1, ,130 Upper Midscale 2, ,957 Midscale ,814 36% 33% Economy ,049 Casino 17 9,385 Total 5, ,501 % by rooms

8 8 US Forecast New Hotel Openings by Rooms ,344 Growth Rate: 2.6% ,972 Growth Rate: 2.4% ,476 75,138 } 125,614 Growth Rate: 2.4% ,736 Growth Rate: 2.3% ,881 Growth Rate: 2.0% Actual Forecast

9 9 US Forecast New Hotel Openings by Chain Scale * = growth rate % by rooms Projects Rooms * Projects Rooms * Projects Rooms * Luxury 12 4, , , Upper Upscale 64 12, , , Upscale , , , Upper Midscale , , , Midscale 107 9, , , Economy 35 3, , , Unbranded 75 9, , , Casino ,

10 10 US Construction Pipeline Top 10 Markets by Rooms Q Q Q Projects Rooms Pipeline rooms as a % of 2Q18 Census Projects Rooms Pipeline rooms as a % of 2Q17 Census New York, NY , , Dallas, TX , , Los Angeles, CA , , Nashville, TN , , Houston, TX , ,

11 11 US Construction Pipeline Top 10 Markets by Rooms Q (cont.) Q Q Projects Rooms Pipeline rooms as a % of 2Q18 Census Projects Rooms Pipeline rooms as a % of 2Q17 Census Orlando, FL 77 15, , Atlanta, GA , , Miami, FL 69 12, , Washington, DC 70 11, , Austin, TX 95 11, ,

12 12 US Construction Pipeline: Top 5 US Parent Companies New Construction Plus Conversions by Rooms Q Projects Q Q Rooms Average # Rooms Per Project Projects Rooms Average # Rooms Per Project Marriott International 1, , , , Hilton Worldwide 1, , , , InterContinental Hotels Group , , Choice Hotels , , Best Western Hotels & Resorts , ,062 89

13 13 Global Construction Pipeline by Region Q vs. Q United States Other Americas EMEA AP Under Construction Starts Next 12 & Early Planning Total Pipeline Projects Rooms Projects Rooms Projects Rooms Projects Rooms Q , , ,959 1, ,698 2, ,851 Q , , ,610 1, ,929 2, ,208 YOY Variance 5% 5% -9% -10% 10% 12% 6% 11% Q , , ,172 1, ,402 1, ,839 Q , , , ,594 1, ,687 YOY Variance 8% 7% -9% -7% 14% 15% <1% <1% Q , , ,131 2, ,100 4, ,690 Q , ,371 1, ,442 2, ,523 4, ,895 YOY Variance 7% 6% -9% -9% 12% 13% 4% 7%

14 14 Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Top 5 Countries by Rooms Q Q Q Projects Rooms Projects Rooms China 2, ,645 2, ,225 Indonesia , ,241 Japan , ,637 Vietnam , ,085 Malaysia , ,556

15 15 Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Top 5 Cities by Rooms Q Q Q Projects Rooms Projects Rooms Guangzhou, China , ,890 Shanghai, China , ,941 Chengdu, China 88 20, ,865 Jakarta, Indonesia , ,266 Hangzhou, China 79 17, ,929

16 16 Latin America Construction Pipeline Top 5 Countries by Rooms Q Q Q Projects Rooms Projects Rooms Brazil , ,634 Mexico , ,569 Columbia 63 9, ,707 Dominican Republic 26 9, ,587 Cuba 26 8, ,170

17 17 Latin America Construction Pipeline Top 5 Cities by Rooms Q Q Q Projects Rooms Projects Rooms Cancun, Mexico 19 8, ,410 Lima, Peru 33 5, ,073 Sao Paulo, Brazil 19 3, ,026 Campinas, Brazil 17 3, ,594 Cartagena, Columbia 17 2, ,500

18 18 Europe Construction Pipeline Top 5 Countries by Rooms Q Q Q Projects Rooms Projects Rooms Germany , ,556 United Kingdom , ,452 Russia 79 15, ,645 France , ,147 Poland 80 12, ,048

19 19 Europe Construction Pipeline Top 5 Cities by Rooms Q Q Q Projects Rooms Projects Rooms London, United Kingdom 80 13, ,029 Dusseldorf, Germany 35 7, ,950 Frankfurt, Germany 29 6, ,984 Moscow, Russia 25 5, ,982 Paris, France 41 5, ,131

20 20 US Transactions with a Reported Selling Price Q Average Selling Price Per Room (000s) K 212 K 214K 159 K 101 K 101K 74K 76 K 240K 198K 194K 94K 102K 108K YTD 18 >200 Rooms <200 Rooms , Total Transactions 596 1,028 1,104 1,288 1,

21 21 US Lodging Real Estate: Total Investment by Dollars * Q As Buyers As Sellers YTD YTD 2018 Privately Held Companies Equity Funds 5,102 4,415 3,355 3,459 3,893 2,654 Hotel Companies 4,259 3,864 2,168 4,610 4,982 2,043 Individual Owners 3,884 3, ,309 2, Publicly Traded Companies REITs 2,266 4, ,663 2,511 1,295 Hotel Companies , Other Entities All Other Entities Total Dollar Volume 16,115 16,214 7,358 16,115 16,214 7,358 * $ in millions

22 22 Takeaways Continuing along current trend lines, the U.S. Construction Pipeline could reach the peak established in Q208, in terms of number of projects, in late 2019 Supply in some markets will continue to be of concern as these new hotels open The Pipeline will continue to be dominated with hotels in the Upscale and Upper Midscale chain scales Dual-branded developments are the solution to capturing multiple guest profiles Sales transactions for year-end 2018 are likely to fall far short of 2017 totals If you are an owner, it is still a great time to sell and take your profits given the sales cycle and looming interest rate hikes

23 Thank You JP Ford CHB, ISHC SVP, Director of Global Business Development Office: ext. 14 Mobile: