Song Rui Tourism Research Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences March 7, 2018, Berlin
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1 Report on World Tourism Economy Trends (2018) Song Rui Tourism Research Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences March 7, 2018, Berlin
2 TREND I Fast and comprehensive growth of the global tourism economy
3 The total global tourist arrivals reached nearly 11.9 billion in 2017, 1.6 times as many as the total global population Global Total Tourist Arrivals ( ) F Total global tourist arrivals (trillion) Ratio of global tourist arrivals to global population ( 100%)
4 Global tourist revenue amounted USD 5.3 trillion, around 6.7% of GDP in 2017 Global Total Tourist Revenue ( ) F Total global tourist revenue (USD trillion) Percentage to global GDP (%)
5 Global tourism growth rate kept increasing in 2017 Global tourism economy growth rates ( ) F Growth rate of global tourist arrivals (%) Growth rate of total global tourist revenue (%)
6 Global tourism economy growth rate exceeded that of global GDP in 2017 Comparison with GDP growth rates ( ) F Growth rate of global GDP (%) IMF Growth rate of global GDP (%) WB Growth rate of total global tourist revenue (%)
7 Global tourism economy grew comprehensively Tourism growth rates of five regions in 2017 Growth rate of total tourist arrivals Growth rate of total tourist revenue Europe Asia-Pacific Middle America East Africa 2.1% 1.9% 9.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 4.9% 6.9% 4.8% 3.5%
8 The global tourism growth will still be higher than the global economy growth in 2018 global tourism economy in 2018 (forecast) High growth situation Ordinary situation Low growth situation Total global tourist arrivals(billion) Growth rate of total tourist arrivals 7.8% 6.7% 5.5% Total global tourist revenue (USD 1 trillion) Growth rate of total global tourist revenue 6.7% 5.9% 5.0%
9 TREND II The evolving balance of the global tourism tripartite pattern
10 European share shrank, American share remained, Asian-Pacific share increased Percentages of 5 regions in terms of the total tourist arrivals (2016) Percentages of 5 regions in terms of the total tourist arrivals (2017)
11 European share shrank, American share remained, Asian-Pacific share increased Percentages of 5 regions in terms of the total tourist revenue (2016) Percentages of 5 regions in terms of the total tourist revenue (2017)
12 Top 10 countries in terms of tourist arrivals and tourist revenue Country and its world region Total tourist arrivals (million) Country Total tourist revenue (USD billion) 1 China (Asia-Pacific) 4,530 US 1,030 2 India (Asia-Pacific) 1,540 China US (America) 1,250 Germany Japan (Asia-Pacific) 320 UK France (Europe) 280 Japan Indonesia (Asia-Pacific) 260 France Spain (Europe) 200 Indonesia Brazil (America) 180 Italy Germany (Europe) 170 Mexico UK (Europe) 160 Spain 130
13 This pattern will be more evident in 2018 Percentages of 5 regions in global tourism in 2018 (prediction) Asia-Pacific America Europe Middle East Africa Total tourist arrivals 68.0% 15.1% 14.3% 1.4% 1.2% Total tourist revenue 34.0% 31.0% 30.1% 2.9% 2.0%
14 TREND III The faster growth of tourism in emerging economies
15 Growth greater in emerging economies vs developed economies 20,0% 25,0% 15,0% 10,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 5,0% 0,0% E 0,0% -5,0% E -5,0% -10,0% -10,0% Developed Economies Emerging Economies -15,0% Developed Economies Emerging Economies Growth rates of total tourist arrivals in different economies ( ) Growth rates of total tourist revenues in different economies ( )
16 Emerging economies hosted 70% of the global tourists and earned 40% of the global tourist revenue 120,0% 100,0% 80,0% 60,0% 40,0% Percentages of emerging economies and developed economies in the total global tourist arrivals ( ) Percentages of emerging economies and developed economies in the total global tourist revenue ( ) 120,0% 100,0% 80,0% 60,0% 40,0% 20,0% 20,0% 0,0% 0,0% E Developed Economies Emerging Economies Developed Economies Emerging Economies
17 In 2018, both tourist arrivals and tourist revenue of emerging economies will grow faster than those of developed countries Growth rates of the total tourist revenues of emerging economies and developed countries in 2018 (forecast) Developed countries Emerging economies Growth rate of tourist arrivals 1.8% 8.7% Growth rate of total tourist revenue 3.7% 9.3%
18 TREND IV The outstanding tourism development of BRICS countries
19 The BRICS countries account for three quarters and half of the total tourist arrivals and tourist revenue of emerging economies respectively
20 TREND V Tourism growth s contribution to global trade
21 The growth rate of the global international tourism was higher than that of the global international trade Growth rates of global trade and global tourism trade ( )
22 Tourism has become the largest component of international trade in services Percentages of all the components of trade in services¹ 3,5% goods-related services 22,8% 17,8% transport travel 0,9% construction insurance and pension services 10,3% financial services 6,5% 8,8% 2,5% 1,8% 25,1% World receipts of charges for the use of intellectual property telecommunications, computer and information services personal, cultural and recreational services ¹ The data on the trade are from the WTO. The international tourist data are the data obtained by the research group through their measurements and calculation.
23 TREND VI Rapid growth in global tourism investment
24 Global tourism investment grew by 4.1% Global Tourism Investment amounts from 2008 to 2017 (USD Billion ) 10,0% Growth Rate of Global Tourism Investment in ,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% -4,0% -6,0% -8,0% -10,0% Source: WTTC The tourism investment includes the inputs of the industries directly related to tourism.
25 Tourism investment in Asia-Pacific was the largest and the growth rate was the fastest Tourism investment percentages of five great regions (2017) Annual average tourism investment growth rates of the five great regions ( )
26 TREND VII Cities important roles in the global tourism economy
27 2/3 of the WTCF member cities have received more than ¼ of the global inbound tourists Percentage of the inbound tourists received by 87 of the WTCF city members Percentage of others Percentage of 87 WTCF City Members WTCF has 128 city members
28 The growth rate of the inbound tourists of the WTCF member cities surpassed the growth rate of global Comparison between the growth rate of international tourism to 87 WTCF member cities and the global international tourism growth rate ( )
29 The domestic tourism growth rate of the WTCF member cities is higher than the global The domestic tourism growth rate of the 44 WTCF member cities and the growth rate of the total global domestic tourist arrivals ( )
30 TREND VIII Good growth momentum of listed tourism companies
31 Global listed tourism companies maintained a good growth momentum along with the general capital market ,00% ,77% ,00% ,00% ,85% 40,00% 30,00% CAGR 14.04% ,63% 20,00% 10,00% ,96% 3,40% 0,00% ,46% -10,00% ,00% Total market capitalization and growth rate of the 50 listed tourism companies ( ) ( USD million, %) Data source: Wind Data
32 Global listed tourism companies maintained a good growth momentum along with the general capital market Total Market Value of Listed Tourism Companies by Segment ( ) Current Ratios Comparison of Listed Tourism Companies by segment ( ) Data source: Wind Data
33 Except for travel services, the profitability of listed tourism companies generally went up steadily Comparison of the operating profit margins of the sub-industry of the listed tourism companies ( ) Data source: Wind Data
34 TREND IX Eight new technologies changing global tourism development
35 Artificial intelligence increases the operational efficiency of tourism VR/AR technology: tourism will be one of the main sectors for application Blockchains will change the payment system, credit system and service system of tourism Human-computer interaction techniques will affect the tourist industry development in many ways New energy revolution effectively supports the sustainable development of tourism GIS technology enables a scientific approach to tourism analysis and service delivery The Internet of Things will change the service processes and structure of tourism communications and distribution Cloud computing enhances the digital management and digital marketing of tourism
36 TREND X Tourism faces challenges of human capital
37 The gap of tourism in human capital is large Trend of the ratio of the created direct jobs in the tourist industry to the total jobs Among 46 countries, 37 of them would encounter shortage of human capital in tourism industry, while only 6 countries would have this problem in national economy. Data source: TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMIC IMPACT 2017 WORLD, WTTC
38 The growth of tourism employment does not match the growth of the industry Employment in tourism industry (thousand)
39 High-end management and technology talents are insufficient Tourism has started to change from a labor-intensive industry into a capital-intensive and technology-intensive tourism. The transformation needs high-end management and technology talents with high-level skills and new thinking. As new technologies appear and they penetrate the tourist industry, the demand of tourism for high-end technical talents will be very high and the gap in this aspect will be large Because the demands of customers for tourist services are increasingly diversified and customized, the future tourist management personnel need more extensive management abilities and business liability. High mobilities of tourism employment The global tourism industry is facing the problems of high staff turnover rate and the talents moving toward other industries. WTTC data suggests that the employee turnover rate of the tourism industry is between 3-36% p.a. with average of 18%. The turnover rates of the nontechnical workers, salespersons and customer service staff are the highest.
40 Human resources flew from the traditional tourist industry to the new tourist industry Distribution of the employees of the traditional Chinese tourist core industry (10,000) Distribution of the employees of the new Chinese tourist industry (10,000)
41 Data Sources Time period and source Domestic tourist arrivals : UNWTO International tourist arrivals : UNWTO Domestic tourist revenue : WTTC International tourist revenue : UNWTO Time period and source Tourism Research Centre, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
42 II III Growth of tourism in relation to global trade
43 THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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