Forecasting Forum 2017: what will happen to travel pricing in the year ahead?

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1 Forecasting Forum 2017: what will happen to travel pricing in the year ahead? Colin Goldney Argate Meridian (moderator) Jeroen Hurkmans Advito Margaret Bowler HRG Yvonne Moya Unilever

2 Industry Forecast for 2017 Intercontinental 2017 Regional Industry Forecast December update Business Economy Business Economy North America 1% Europe 1% 1% Asia 2% Latin America -3% Middle East Africa 1% 1% Southwest Pacific 3% 1% Global 1% 1% Indicates change to original forecast

3 North America 2017 airfares by destination Business fares to three regions will rise by 1%, but they ll stay flat or fall to all others. Economy fares to Asia, Europe and North America will not change. Business class Economy class Forecasted year-over-year change in average corporate client airfares (in USD), point of origin North America. Bold numbers indicate revision to previous forecast. Source: Advito 2017 Industry Forecast, December update.

4 Europe 2017 airfares by destination Business fares will rise by 1% on intercontinental flights to all regions. Regional economy fares will fall, but intercontinental fares will stay flat or rise. +2% Business class Economy class Forecasted year-over-year change in average corporate client airfares (in USD), point of origin Europe Bold numbers indicate revision to previous forecast. Source: Advito 2017 Industry Forecast, December update.

5 Asia 2017 airfares by destination Expect highest business fare increases on regional routes. Fares will also rise to the Americas and SW Pacific. Most intercontinental economy fares will fall. -3% -4% +2% Business class Economy class Forecasted year-over-year change in average corporate client airfares (in USD), point of origin Asia Bold numbers indicate revision to previous forecast. Source: Advito 2017 Industry Forecast, December update.

6 Latin America 2017 airfares by destination Business fares to Europe and Africa will fall. Expect a small rise to North America, Asia and SW Pacific. Economy fares will fall to all regions except Asia. -3% Business class Economy class Forecasted year-over-year change in average corporate client airfares (in USD), point of origin Latin America Bold numbers indicate revision to previous forecast. Source: Advito 2017 Industry Forecast, December update.

7 Middle East 2017 airfares by destination Business fares will only increase for trips to SW Pacific. Economy fares will fall on flights to all regions. Business class Economy class Forecasted year-over-year change in average corporate client airfares (in USD), point of origin Middle East Bold numbers indicate revision to previous forecast. Source: Advito 2017 Industry Forecast, December update.

8 Africa 2017 airfares by destination Business fares will increase by 1% except to Asia, Europe and the Middle East, where they ll be flat. Economy fare changes will range between and. Business class Economy class Forecasted year-over-year change in average corporate client airfares (in USD), point of origin Africa Bold numbers indicate revision to previous forecast. Source: Advito 2017 Industry Forecast, December update.

9 Southwest Pacific 2017 airfares by destination Most intercontinental business fares will rise by 1%, while regional fares will increase by 3%. Changes to economy fares will range between and. Business class Economy class +3% Forecasted year-over-year change in average corporate client airfares (in USD), point of origin SW Pacific Bold numbers indicate revision to previous forecast. Source: Advito 2017 Industry Forecast, December update.

10 2017 Hotel Forecasting

11 2017 RFP Results Contracted rate increases remained fairly flat 1% Level of increase driven by supply and demand in each destination S D HRG Consulting clients RFP results were 1-5% lower than the market increase expectation 1

12 RFP Results Regional Overview End of RFP Season +1 to +3% +1 to +3% -1 to 0 to +2% +2 to +4% 0 to +2%

13 2017 RFP Results Stand Out Destinations Aberdeen -18% London Moscow 4% Frankfurt 1% Berlin 3% New Delhi 4% Vancouver 4% San Francisco 1% Los Angeles 6% Dublin 14% New York Washington - Houston -5% Beijing Tokyo 2% Shanghai 1% Hong Kong Guatemala 9% Bogota 3% Paris 6% Lagos -11% Dubai Singapore 2% Abu Dhabi Buenos Aires 11% Rio De Janeiro -17% Cape Town 6% Johannesburg 5% Sydney 4% Auckland 1

14 2017 RFP Season UK Results City YOY Variance London Flat - 2% Aberdeen -18. Heathrow 1.5% Manchester 1. Newcastle -2. Edinburgh 1. Leeds 2. Glasgow 3. Bristol 5% Belfast 3% Liverpool 1% Cardiff 1%

15 2017 Outlook

16 2017 Outlook

17 2017 Corporate Checklist

18 Corporate Checklist Tight hotel programme Balance rate vs. availability vs. room types Benchmarking Contracted rates vs. achieved rates Ability to flex policy

19 Forecasting Forum 2017: what will happen to travel pricing in the year ahead? Colin Goldney Argate Meridian (moderator) Jeroen Hurkmans Advito Margaret Bowler HRG Yvonne Moya Unilever

20 Now please complete a short session survey Thanks!

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