Fastest rental growth in four years. Global Office Index Q2 2016

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1 Fastest rental growth in four years Global Office Index Q2 2016

2 2 Global Office Index, Q Fastest rental growth in four years Global office demand is proving resilient in many of the world s dominant commercial real estate markets despite increased political and economic uncertainty leading to corporate occupiers striking a more cautious tone. Office supply continues to tighten on the back of a shallow development cycle, resulting in continued upward momentum in aggregate rental growth. Rents on prime office assets across the 110 major markets covered by the JLL Global Office Index increased by 3.6% year-on-year in Q2, the fastest pace of annual growth in four years. Quarter-onquarter, rents rose by 0.8% compared to 0.6% in Q Economic uncertainty and continued political risks are likely to dampen leasing volume growth over the remainder of the year, with global leasing volumes in 2016 projected to be around 5% lower than Nonetheless, underlying market fundamentals are sound and corporate demand is holding up well, notably in the United States and continental Europe. Supply constraints will continue to drive rental increases, although at a reduced pace, and JLL forecasts prime rental growth of around 2%-3% for the full-year % Q Q % +16.7% Trough Q Peak Q Annual global office rental growth +20 QUARTERLY OFFICE RENTAL GROWTH AMERICAS +0.6% EUROPE +1.5% ASIA PACIFIC +0.6% +8.0% Dallas +9.4% Stockholm +4.8% Bengaluru +6.3% Montreal +6.3% Berlin +3.4% Manila +5.8% San Francisco Peninsula +3.7% Barcelona +2.9% Sydney

3 3 Global Office Index, Q Top 10 Market Locations Annual Office Rental Growth 35.4% 20.0% 28.9% 2. Stockholm 1. Oakland - East Bay 8. Los Angeles 13.0% 16.7% 12.1% 3. Dublin 20.0% 11.1% 9. Atlanta 10. Austin 5. Cairo 4. Dubai 7. Hong Kong 17.1% 6. Sydney Americas Europe Asia Pacific MENA Four US cities in the Global Top 10 Diversified markets such as Los Angeles and Atlanta are outperforming, joining technology hubs Oakland-East Bay and Austin which continue to register significant rental uplifts driven by robust demand and limited supply

4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Rental Index (Q = 100) 4 Global Office Index, Q Global Office Index Prime Rents, Change Y-o-Y Q Q Asia Pacific 2.7% Americas 3.1% Europe 4.3% GLOBAL 3.6% Asia Pacific stock weighted average of 27 markets; Americas stock weighted average of 39 markets; Europe stock weighted average of 39 markets. Global Index based on GDP weighted average of the Asia Pacific, Americas, Europe and Middle East and North Africa indices. Source: JLL, August 2016 In this latest edition, coverage in Europe has been extended by a further 15 cities to reflect the wide geographic interest of investors and corporate occupiers. The Index covers more secondary cities in the UK and Germany, it now includes all Nordic and key Mediterranean capital cities and has been extended into Switzerland, Turkey and Romania for the first time. Mixed rental performance in Asia Pacific Asia Pacific quarterly rental growth was recorded at 0.6% (2.7% year-on-year) in Q2 2016, consistent with the 0.6% (3.1% year-on-year) witnessed in Q1. Tech and finance continued to drive regional demand, while offshoring and outsourcing together with ITES bolstered demand selectively in India and parts of Southeast Asia. A large upcoming supply volume contributed to an only marginal quarterly uplift in Tokyo (+0.4%) despite strong leasing and very low vacancy, and vacancy pressure and cost-saving strategies saw Shanghai s rental growth moderate to 0.9%. Growth in Hong Kong (+2.3% quarter-onquarter) was propped up by demand from mainland Chinese banks, while the leasing market improved in Seoul (+2.0%) with landlords cutting back incentives despite weakness in the broader South Korean economy. Rents declined in most of the key Southeast Asian markets with only Manila (+3.4%), where offshoring and outsourcing demand remains robust, registering a quarterly rental increase. Ongoing cutbacks in the energy and resources sectors saw rents fall in Jakarta (-2.8% quarter-on-quarter) and Kuala Lumpur (-0.7%), while banking consolidation and supply pressure led to rents decreasing in Singapore (-3.3%). Ongoing tech demand and lack of space resulted in Bengaluru (+4.8%) achieving the region s strongest quarterly rental uplift. Conditions in Australia remain mixed, with traditional occupier groups such as finance and professional services contributing to strong annual rental growth in Sydney (+17.1% year-onyear) and Melbourne (+1.9%). At the same time, a slumping resources sector and high vacancy once more put downward pressure on rents in Brisbane (-3.5%) and Perth (-20.1%).

5 5 Global Office Index, Q Top 10 Office Rental Performers, Q Quarterly Annual 9.4% Stockholm 35.4% Oakland-East Bay Americas 8.0% Dallas 28.9% Stockholm Asia Pacific 6.3% Montreal 20.0% Dublin Europe 6.3% Berlin 20.0% Dubai MENA 5.8% San Francisco Peninsula 17.1% Sydney 5.7% Oakland-East Bay 16.7% Cairo 4.8% Bengaluru 13.5% Los Angeles 3.7% Barcelona 13.0% Atlanta 3.4% Manila 12.1% Austin 3.4% Paris 11.1% Hong Kong Source: JLL, August 2016 Rental growth accelerates in Europe Q office leasing volumes in Europe were down 3% year-on-year. However, the 2.9 million square metres of office space transacted in Q2 was well ahead of the 10-year average. Excluding the UK, European take-up grew by 4% year-on-year in Q2, a clear sign of the upbeat sentiment on the continent. While leasing activity in London has clearly been affected in the run-up to and following the EU referendum, general sentiment elsewhere in European leasing markets is one of business as usual with levels of activity similar to recent quarters. The European Office Index rose by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, the strongest increase in five years, bringing aggregate annual growth to 4.3%. Of the 39 Index markets, 10 have registered quarterly rental increases (up from 9 in Q1), while only Zurich (-1.3%) and Istanbul (-4.4%) have seen a decrease in rents. Stockholm has been the region s star performer, with a spike in demand boosting quarterly rental growth to 9.4%. In Paris (+3.4% quarter-on-quarter), limited new supply and more robust take-up pushed up prime rents for the fourth consecutive quarter. Berlin (+6.3%) led the German cities, where demand continues to be well ahead of the long-term average. In Southern Europe the momentum in the market recovery has continued in Milan (+2.0%), while Barcelona (+3.7%) and Madrid (+0.9%) have maintained their solid run. Following the EU referendum, headline rents have so far remained unchanged in London on a quarterly basis. Rentfree periods may soften as occupiers look to negotiate more flexible terms with greater lease flexibility. However, existing requirements are largely continuing as planned with very few deals being withdrawn and deals at the current prime rent recorded in recent weeks.

6 6 Global Office Index, Q Americas Office Index grows at moderate pace The Americas Office Index accelerated in Q with prime office rents in the region rising by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.2% in Q1. This remains a slower pace of growth than that experienced in the second half of 2015, with growth in some of the previously fastest-surging markets, such as those throughout the San Francisco Bay Area, decelerating from unsustainable levels seen earlier in the cycle. The cyclical expansion, especially in the U.S. market, remains firmly in place as landlords in the vast majority of cities enjoy market leverage over tenants and this is expected to continue to be the case into The Americas Office Index has now gained 20.1% since the cyclical trough in early 2010 and the new record level as of Q is 3.6% higher than the previous cycle s peak in There are some signs of a shift in leadership as far as cities and drivers of rental outperformance within the Americas. Technology hotspots are still performing very well, as these are generally some of the tightest office markets in the region. Even so, the rate of growth in recent years has in many cases been unsustainable and, in particular, a renewed focus by tech firm investors on profitability has slowed growth in space expansion within the industry. Meanwhile, top performers for the quarter include a diverse group such as Dallas (+8.0% quarter-on-quarter), Montreal (+6.3%), Philadelphia (+3.3%), Los Angeles (+3.0%) and Charlotte (+2.8%). More secondary cities and markets that are highly diversified are playing strong roles in the market s expansion, and this is a critical development that will keep national U.S. rents growing for the next several quarters. America may continue to see declining prime rents in the quarters ahead. Two-tier markets in MENA The MENA Index was unchanged over the quarter, with the annual increase for Q standing at 11.3% (11.9% in Q1). Demand remains strong for limited Grade A space with little interest in secondary locations, creating a two-tiered market. Dubai is the top regional performer on an annual basis (+20.0%) with declining vacancy in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) boosting rental values. The performance of the DIFC was not, however, representative of the wider market, where relatively high vacancy rates and upcoming supply have constrained rental growth. Cairo (+16.7%) also has also witnessed robust annual rental growth, driven by relocations to higher-quality space in more convenient locations while rents elsewhere in the region have been stable. Significant challenges persist in some of the region s markets, with a deep recession in Brazil and considerable new supply additions prompting continuing declines in prime rents in Rio de Janeiro (-9.1% quarter-on-quarter) and Sao Paulo (-1.6%). Soft energy prices in addition to heavy supply have been the culprit in Calgary (-7.6%), Denver (-2.4%) and Houston (-1.2%). Both of these U.S. cities have witnessed substantial increases in sublease space on the market as energy firms downsize. These challenges are not likely to dissipate appreciably in the second half of 2016 and, as such, several of these markets and potentially a few others; for instance those with very active development pipelines in Latin

7 7 Global Office Index, Q JLL Global30 Annual Office Rental Growth 17.1% 13.5% 13.0% 11.1% 9.9% 8.9% 8.5% 7.8% 5.9% 5.7% 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.1% -0.1% -1.1% -1.4% -2.2% -4.4% -4.8% -7.2% -8.2% -14.1% Sydney Los Angeles Atlanta Hong Kong Dallas San Francisco Paris Shanghai Manila Boston Chicago Tokyo Seoul Toronto Frankfurt Washington DC Beijing Bangkok London Guangzhou New York Mumbai Houston Delhi Mexico City Istanbul Moscow Sao Paulo Jakarta Singapore To find out more about cities and real estate, visit JLL s Cities Research Center Source: JLL, August 2016 Asia Pacific JLL Global30 are the world s largest business centres and real estate markets* JLL s Global30 represents 40% of the total GDP of the world s 300 most commercially important cities. 52% of global HQs located in JLL s Global300 cities are found in the top 30 cities *Based on an Index of Commercial Attraction derived from a weighted basket of population, GDP, corporate presence, air connectivity, commercial real estate stock and real estate investment volumes Americas Europe MENA

8 8 Global Office Index, Q Pace of rental growth to slow in H The world s dominant commercial real estate markets have, so far, weathered the political and economic storms of 2016 comparatively well. While some markets are struggling to maintain forward momentum, many have remained remarkably robust and in some cases are still expanding. Nonetheless, weaker business sentiment, economic uncertainty and continued political risks are expected to dampen leasing volume growth for the rest of 2016, with our latest projection for the full-year indicating that global volumes will be about 5% lower than the cyclical peak of 40.9 million square metres in The current development cycle, likely to peak in 2017, is proving shallower than previous cycles and the global office vacancy rate is forecast to remain stable at historically low levels over the remainder of the year. Supply constraints will continue to boost rents for prime space in most of the world s major office markets, although there are signs that aggregate rental growth is beginning to soften and the pace is predicted to slow to around 2%-3% for the full-year. Office leasing volumes in Asia Pacific were down 4% in H over the same period a year earlier, and growth of 0%- 5% is now anticipated in 2016, reflecting the delayed impact of stock market volatility at the beginning of the year and uncertainty regarding the slowdown in China. A vigorous performance in the first half of the year supports our view that Sydney will record the strongest rental growth in Asia Pacific in Large supply pipelines and regional economic uncertainty are expected to lead to slower regional rental growth in H In Europe, our current leasing volumes forecast of 11.1 million square metres for full-year 2016 represents a 5%-10% decrease on However, on the back of the robust activity in the first half of the year, there is some upside potential to the full-year 2016 take-up forecast if the current acceleration of occupier activity is maintained. A period of steady rental increases for prime European offices is projected, with rental growth of 2.5%-3% in Western Europe set to outperform the 10-year average over the next few years. In London, rental growth is predicted to move into negative territory during the second half of the year, but low vacancy coupled with an increasingly diverse occupier base should prevent a substantial fall in rents. Stockholm and Madrid are expected to be the region s high performers over The U.S. economy is regaining its footing following a relatively soft beginning to Employment growth continues to be solid, although somewhat lower than that seen in The shift in national composition of rental growth away from energy and tech-dominated markets towards more diversified primary markets and a greater number of secondary markets is expected to continue into However, parts of Latin America and Canada will continue to face headwinds in the form of weak commodity markets and economies, as well as strong supply growth. Nevertheless, prime rental growth in the Americas will tend towards further modest acceleration, and the region s Office Index is likely to exceed 4% annual growth once again by the first half of Prime rents are projected to remain broadly stable in MENA over 2016 as most of the region s office markets continue to witness significant new supply and uncertainly over occupier demand. The general trend of two-tier markets with stronger demand for Grade A space and limited interest in secondary locations is expected to persist.

9 9 Global Office Index, Q Technical Note The JLL Global Office Index is derived from the weighted average of the rental movements of JLL s European, Asia Pacific, Americas and Middle East and North African (MENA) Regional Indexes that cover 110 office markets in total. They are weighted by real GDP (US dollar basis) for each region from Oxford Economics. Weights are adjusted annually. The latest weights are 29% - Europe; 31% - Asia Pacific; 34% - Americas; 4% - MENA (percentages are rounded). The European Office Index is calculated from the change in headline face rents for the highest-quality space in the premier office submarket in 39 European cities, weighted on the basis of the total office stock (all grades) in each city s overall market. The Asia Pacific Office Index is calculated from the change in average Grade A rents (net effective) in the main submarket in 27 Asia Pacific cities, weighted on the basis of Grade A stock in the main submarket of each city. The Americas Office Index is calculated from the change in average Class A rents (gross asking in North America, triple net in Latin America) in the CBD, Downtown, central areas or primary investment market of 39 Americas cities, weighted on the basis of Class A stock (DC city for Washington, DC; Hudson Waterfront for New Jersey; Palo Alto for Silicon Valley; Midtown for New York; Westside for Los Angeles; Greenwich Overall and Stamford CBD/Railroad for Fairfield County; South County for San Francisco Peninsula; overall Downtown market for Seattle; Tampa CBD-only for Tampa). The MENA Index is calculated from the change in headline face rents for the highest-quality space in the premier office submarket in five cities, weighted on the basis of the total office stock in each city s overall market.

10 10 Global Office Index, Q Quarterly Rental Performance across 110 Cities Quarterly Change Q vs Q Global 0.8% Europe 1.5% Asia Pacific 0.6% Americas 0.6% MENA 0.0% 1 Stockholm 9.4% 2 Dallas 8.0% 3 Montreal 6.3% 3 Berlin 6.3% 5 San Francisco Peninsula 5.8% 6 Oakland-East Bay 5.7% 7 Bengaluru 4.8% 8 Barcelona 3.7% 9 Manila 3.4% 9 Paris 3.4% 11 Philadelphia 3.3% 12 Los Angeles 3.0% 13 Sydney 2.9% 14 Charlotte 2.8% 15 Rome 2.6% 16 Stuttgart 2.5% 17 Hong Kong 2.3% 18 St. Louis 2.1% 19 Milan 2.0% 19 Seoul 2.0% 21 Miami 1.9% 21 Dusseldorf 1.9% 23 Chicago 1.7% 23 Hanoi 1.7% 25 Osaka 1.6% 26 Munich 1.5% 27 Toronto 1.4% 27 Fairfield County 1.4% 27 Austin 1.4% 30 Seattle 1.2% 31 Tampa 1.1% 32 Silicon Valley 1.0% 33 Shanghai 0.9% 33 Baltimore 0.9% 33 Madrid 0.9% 33 Washington, DC 0.9% 37 Bogota 0.8% 38 San Diego 0.7% 39 Buenos Aires 0.6% 39 Portland 0.6% 39 Ho Chi Minh City 0.6% 39 San Francisco 0.6% 39 Auckland 0.6% 44 Atlanta 0.5% 44 Guangzhou 0.5% 46 Tokyo 0.4% 47 Canberra 0.3% 48 Vancouver 0.1% 48 New Jersey 0.1% 50 Phoenix 0.0% 50 Abu Dhabi 0.0% 50 Amsterdam 0.0% 50 Athens 0.0% Quarterly Change Q vs Q Birmingham 0.0% 50 Brussels 0.0% 50 Bucharest 0.0% 50 Budapest 0.0% 50 Cairo 0.0% 50 Chennai 0.0% 50 Cologne 0.0% 50 Copenhagen 0.0% 50 Detroit 0.0% 50 Dubai 0.0% 50 Dublin 0.0% 50 Edinburgh 0.0% 50 Frankfurt 0.0% 50 Geneva 0.0% 50 Glasgow 0.0% 50 Hamburg 0.0% 50 Helsinki 0.0% 50 Jeddah 0.0% 50 Lisbon 0.0% 50 London 0.0% 50 Luxembourg 0.0% 50 Lyon 0.0% 50 Manchester 0.0% 50 Melbourne 0.0% 50 Mexico City 0.0% 50 Moscow 0.0% 50 Oslo 0.0% 50 Prague 0.0% 50 Riyadh 0.0% 50 Rotterdam 0.0% 50 The Hague 0.0% 50 Utrecht 0.0% 50 Warsaw 0.0% 87 New York -0.1% 88 Mumbai -0.5% 88 Adelaide -0.5% 88 Beijing -0.5% 91 Bangkok -0.6% 91 Santiago -0.6% 91 Boston -0.6% 91 Brisbane -0.6% 95 Kuala Lumpur -0.7% 96 Taipei -0.9% 97 Orlando -1.1% 97 Wellington -1.1% 99 Houston -1.2% 100 Zurich -1.3% 101 Sao Paulo -1.6% 102 Monterrey -2.1% 103 Denver -2.4% 105 Jakarta -2.8% 105 Singapore -3.3% 106 Delhi -3.7% 107 Istanbul -4.4% 108 Perth -4.7% 109 Calgary -7.6% 110 Rio de Janeiro -9.1% Source: JLL, August 2016

11 11 Global Office Index, Q Annual Rental Performance across 110 Cities Annual Change Q vs Q Global 3.6% Europe 4.3% Asia Pacific 2.7% Americas 3.1% MENA 11.3% 1 Oakland-East Bay 35.4% 2 Stockholm 28.9% 3 Dublin 20.0% 3 Dubai 20.0% 5 Sydney 17.1% 6 Cairo 16.7% 7 Los Angeles 13.5% 8 Atlanta 13.0% 9 Austin 12.1% 10 Hong Kong 11.1% 11 Berlin 10.9% 12 Barcelona 10.5% 12 Athens 10.5% 12 Bengaluru 10.5% 15 Seattle 10.1% 16 Budapest 10.0% 17 Dallas 9.9% 17 Buenos Aires 9.9% 19 Osaka 9.5% 20 San Francisco 8.9% 21 Philadelphia 8.7% 22 Paris 8.5% 22 San Diego 8.5% 24 Shanghai 7.8% 25 Charlotte 7.7% 26 Baltimore 7.6% 27 Denver 7.2% 28 Madrid 6.7% 28 Birmingham 6.7% 30 San Francisco Peninsula 6.5% 31 Phoenix 6.4% 31 Milan 6.4% 33 Manila 5.9% 34 Boston 5.7% 34 Miami 5.7% 36 Silicon Valley 5.4% 37 Rome 5.3% 38 Stuttgart 5.1% 39 Chicago 4.4% 39 Portland 4.3% 41 Tokyo 4.1% 42 Seoul 3.8% 43 Tampa 3.7% 43 Orlando 3.7% 45 St. Louis 3.5% 46 Edinburgh 3.3% 47 Toronto 3.1% 47 Montreal 3.1% 49 Manchester 3.0% 49 Munich 3.0% 49 Auckland 3.0% 52 Chennai 2.9% 53 Frankfurt 2.8% Annual Change Q vs Q Washington, DC 2.7% 55 Canberra 2.6% 56 Beijing 2.4% 57 Bangkok 2.2% 58 London 2.1% 59 Hamburg 2.0% 59 Adelaide 2.0% 61 Dusseldorf 1.9% 61 Melbourne 1.9% 63 Guangzhou 1.7% 63 Glasgow 1.7% 65 Lisbon 1.4% 66 New York 1.1% 67 Wellington 1.0% 68 Santiago 0.9% 69 Taipei 0.5% 70 Fairfield County 0.4% 71 Abu Dhabi 0.0% 71 Amsterdam 0.0% 71 Brussels 0.0% 71 Bucharest 0.0% 71 Cologne 0.0% 71 Copenhagen 0.0% 71 Helsinki 0.0% 71 Jeddah 0.0% 71 Luxembourg 0.0% 71 Lyon 0.0% 71 Oslo 0.0% 71 Prague 0.0% 71 Riyadh 0.0% 71 Rotterdam 0.0% 71 Utrecht 0.0% 71 Warsaw 0.0% 71 Detroit 0.0% 88 Mumbai -0.1% 89 New Jersey -0.6% 90 Houston -1.1% 91 Delhi -1.4% 92 Vancouver -1.7% 93 Ho Chi Minh City -2.1% 94 Mexico City -2.2% 95 Kuala Lumpur -2.7% 96 Hanoi -3.5% 96 Brisbane -3.5% 98 Zurich -4.2% 99 Istanbul -4.4% 100 Moscow -4.8% 101 Bogota -5.1% 101 The Hague -5.1% 103 Sao Paulo -7.2% 104 Geneva -8.1% 105 Jakarta -8.2% 106 Singapore -14.1% 107 Monterrey -14.8% 108 Rio de Janeiro -19.1% 109 Calgary -19.4% 110 Perth -20.1% Source: JLL, August 2016

12 12 Global Office Index, Q About JLL JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a professional services and investment management company offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. A Fortune 510 company with annual gross revenue of $6.0 billion and fee revenue of $5.2 billion, JLL has more than 280 corporate offices, operates in more than 80 countries and has a global workforce of more than 60,000. On behalf of its clients, the company provides management and real estate outsourcing services for a property portfolio of 4.0 billion square feet, or 372 million square meters, and completed $138 billion in sales, acquisitions and finance transactions in Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $59.1 billion of real estate assets under management. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit About JLL Research JLL s research team delivers intelligence, analysis and insight through market-leading reports and services that illuminate today s commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrow s challenges and opportunities. Our more than 400 professional researchers track and analyse economic and property trends, and forecast future conditions in over 60 countries, producing unrivalled local and global perspectives. Our research and expertise, fuelled by real-time information and innovative thinking around the world, creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions. For more information, contact: Jeremy Kelly Director, Global Research Dr Jane Murray Head of Research, Asia Pacific Ben Breslau Managing Director, Americas Research James Brown Lead Director, EMEA Research Contributing Authors: Matthew McAuley Analyst, Global Research Josh Gelormini Vice President, Americas Research Craig Plumb Head of Research, MENA Alex Colpaert Analyst, EMEA Research Christopher Clausen Senior Manager, Asia Pacific Research COPYRIGHT Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. Jones Lang LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.

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