Market trends and outlook

Transcription

1 Excellence in Hotel Ownership and Operations Market trends and outlook Anders Nissen, CEO Pandox Hotel Market Day November, 2018 This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could negatively affect our business and results. Please read our most recent annual report and interim report for a better understanding of these risks and uncertainties.

2 The fourth largest industry in the world 11% 14% 19% 24% Travel & Tourism Construction Finance Retail Source: World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) global GDP impact by sector

3 and one of the fastest growing industries 10.2% 10.4% 11.6% Source: World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) global GDP impact

4 The travel industry is an early digital adopter +$750bn 49% Digital Travel sales 2018 Share of digital sales for hotels Source: Kalibri Labs 9m 2018 YTD

5 1 The world of travel 6 Overtourism 2 Travel market outlook 7 Talent 3 The rising middle-class 8 Sustainability 4 Infrastructure 9 Hotel market outlook 5 Digital disruption

6 1 The world of travel 2017 A record year

7 In 2017, Travel & Tourism outperformed the global economy for the 7th consecutive year In 2017, Travel & Tourism was the fastest growing economic sector in the world In 2017, Travel & Tourism accounted for 10.4 percent of global GDP Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC)

8 Africa 9% Europe 8% 1,326m +91m World Asia & Pacific 7% 6% international arrivals vs Americas Middle East 5% 5% North America 4% Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO)

9 Where are travellers coming from in the world? Europe Asia Pacific Americas Africa Middle East By arrivals 51% 24% 16% 5% 4% By spending 39% 29% 24% 3% 5% Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO)

10 1 The world of travel 2018 A strong first half

11 Europe 7% Asia & Pacific 7% 641m +37m World Middle East 5% 6% international arrivals YTD North America Africa 4% 5% Americas 2% Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO)

12 Some 1.4bn international arrivals expected bn 1.4bn % YOY 2018 Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO)

13 Global RevPAR growth snapshot YTD September, 2018 Los Angeles +2% New York +3% Washington -3% Miami +9% London +1% Paris +17% Berlin +5% Athens +6% Dubai -8% Moscow +60% Shanghai +1% Tokyo +5% Rio de Janeiro +6% Sao Paulo +13% Cape Town -11% Sydney -2% Source: STR Global

14 2 The world of travel Long term outlook

15 Stable long term growth outlook (CAGR) +2.0% +3.5% +3.8% International arrivals by air Total passengers by air Total Travel & Tourism spending Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), International Air Transport Association (IATA), World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC)

16 3 The rise of the global middle class

17 The tipping point is that moment when a small change tips the balance of a system and brings about a large change Global middle class is expected to grow by another 2 billion people the next 20 years Source: Ernst & Young, World Economic Forum (WEF), Airbus, Sabre, IHS Economics

18 Share of middle class households today 40% 7% 18% 25% India Indonesia China World Source: Oxford Economics, International Air Travel Association (IATA)

19 Share of middle class households in % 57% 42% 40% 7% 20% 18% 25% India Indonesia China World Source: Oxford Economics, International Air Travel Association (IATA)

20 Massive increase in number of middle class people without talking population growth into account +170m +60m +385m +1,400m India Indonesia China World Source: Oxford Economics, Pandox calculations

21 25% of the population of the emerging countries took a trip in % of the population of the emerging countries will take a trip in 2035 Source: Airbus GMF

22 25% of the population of the emerging countries took a trip in % of Europeans took a trip % of the population of the emerging countries will take a trip in 2035 Source: Airbus GMF

23 Trips per capita today 1.2x 1.8x 0.08x 0.3x India China Europe North America Source: Oxford Economics, International Air Travel Association (IATA)

24 Trips per capita in x 1.3x 1.2x 2.2x 1.8x 0.08x 0.3x 0.3x India China Europe North America Source: Oxford Economics, International Air Travel Association (IATA)

25 Massive growth in annual trips ( ) without taking population growth into account +4x +4x +1.8x India China Europe +1.3x North America Source: Airbus GMF, Pandox calculations

26 Additional annual trips in 2035 without taking population growth into account +300m +1,400m +700m +200m India China Europe North America Source: Airbus GMF, Pandox calculations

27 4 Infrastructure

28 Global airport construction pipeline of approximately USD 720bn Source: Travel Daily News, CAPA

29 Dubai Abu Dhabi Chengdu Istanbul Mumbai Warsaw From 90m to 160m passengers From 26m to 84m passengers From 50m to 90m passengers From 65m to 90m passengers From 48m to 65m passengers From 16m to m passengers Source: Travel Daily News, CAPA

30 Heathrow Airport 3rd runway and 6th terminal GBP 14.3bn investment Capacity increase from 75m to 130m passengers GBP 187bn in economic growth (UK) 180,000 new jobs (UK) Source: Heathrow.com, The Times

31 5 Digitalisation

32 Areas of digital improvement Distribution Experience Productivity Source: Pandox

33 A leader in digitalisation 49% Digital sales for hotels Source: Kalibri Labs 9m 2018 YTD

34 Future one-stop shops for all consumer travel needs Note: The logos and brands are the property of the respective brand owners

35 The OTA advantage for hotels Easy to book Benefits the consumer Strong market power Drives change in the market The hotel brands of the future? Source: Pandox

36 Hotel brands are fighting back Hotel brands increased marketing for consumers to book direct the campaigns had effect and increased the brands market shares...but when the campaigns faded, the OTAs gained market shares again! The winners are the consumers Source: Kalibri Labs 9m YTD 2018 full USA

37 Slowdown in listings growth for Airbnb Airbnb has grown massively in recent years and has established itself as a new accommodation segment The success has prompted the authorities to put the same demands on Airbnb as on hotels The effect is that listings are decreasing Source: Kalibri Labs 9m YTD 2018 full USA

38 Brussels 50% 44% Legislation update 40% 36% 30% 20% 10% 23% 13% 8% 12% 8% 13% 12% 0% -10% -2% -10% -5% -5% -20% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Airdna (

39 Berlin 50% 40% 30% 20% 41% 31% 41% Legislation update 22% 30% 10% 10% 0% -10% -20% Q Q % Q Q % -8% -7% -8% Q Q Q Q Q Q % Q % Q Q Source: Airdna (

40 Paris 60% 50% 48% Legislation update 40% 30% 20% 10% 32% 5% 36% 24% 9% 25% 16% 12% 0% -10% -20% -30% Q Q Q Q Q Q % -12% Q Q Q Q % -14% Q Q Q Source: Airdna (

41 Amsterdam 40% 37% Legislation update 30% 20% 10% 21% 13% 18% 14% 13% 0% -10% -20% -30% -2% -9% -16% -24% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Airdna (

42 7 Talent

43 Travel & Tourism account for 1 in 10 jobs in the world For every 30 tourists one new job is created Lack of talent poses risk for future growth Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC)

44 8 Sustainability

45 Travel & Tourism is a strong economic driver Travel & Tourism also has strong responsibility for sustainability Its time to dive into this important topic Source: Pandox

46 9 Market Development

47 Market conditions Economic growth Increased travel Supply in some markets Challenging comparisions Source: Pandox

48 Germany Positive Belgium Netherlands Austria Positive UK Stable Nordics Uneven Source: Pandox

49 Thank you!

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