29 th European Hotel Investment Conference Heading into thin air? Robin Rossmann Wednesday 8 November

Transcription

1 29 th European Hotel Investment Conference Heading into thin air? Robin Rossmann Wednesday 8 November

2 European Hotel Investment Conference Robin Rossmann, Managing Director - STR 2017 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

3 The headlines 1. European hotels at all time highs and rising 2. UK hotels Brexit boost coming down to earth? 3. Hotels rise above terror 4. Sun shine and clear skies for the Mediterranean 5. Conclusions

4 STR Coverage 58,000 hotels around the world Hotels, September K +10.3K +9.1K K +848 Hotels

5 European hotels at all time highs and rising

6 North Africa aside, Europe has had the highest 2017 RevPAR growth Constant Currency, September 2017 YTD North America +2.9% Europe +6.5% Central America +3.0% Northern Africa +41.8% Middle East -6.4% Asia +3.4% South America -5.8% Southern Africa +4.4% Australia & Oceania +3.4%

7 Europe s benefitted from strong demand and limited supply growth Global Supply & Demand % Change September 2017 YTD Supply Demand 6.8% 5.9% 4.9% 1.9% 2.5% 1.0% 3.9% 2.8% 2.9% 0.9% 3.5% 3.3% 1.4% 3.4% 1.6% 2.3% North America & Caribbean Central America South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania

8 . as it has for the last 7 years Europe Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change 10% Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change 5% 0% YTD

9 2017 sees record occupancy levels as a result Europe Monthly Occupancy 85% % 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% January February March April May June July August September October November December

10 and significant ADR growth, now well ahead of 2008 Europe Monthly ADR January February March April May June July August September October November December

11 driving by strong transient business growth Europe RevPAR % Change Transient RevPAR % change Group RevPAR % change 10.0% 11.1% 9.5% 3.2% 2.1% 0.5% 3.7% -7.2% YTD

12 A sea of positivity across Europe RevPAR % Change, LC, September 2017 YTD Edinburgh 14 Dublin 7 London Lisbon 20 Barcelona Brussels 19 Paris 9 Copenhagen 7 Madrid 10 Zurich -3 Amsterdam Prague 1 10 Helsinki 8 4 Rome 3 18 Vienna Belgrade Berlin Warsaw Budapest Athens 9 Bucharest St. Petersburg Kiev Istanbul 2 Moscow

13 ADR % Change Eastern Europe & Iberian Peninsula lead the way Local currency, September 2017 YTD 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Saint Petersburg Dublin Helsinki Madrid Edinburgh Budapest Barcelona London Bucharest Amsterdam Copenhagen Paris Berlin Greater Berlin Vienna Rome Warsaw Lisbon Moscow Kiev Brussels Istanbul -5% Zurich Belgrade -10% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Occ % Change

14 The 2008 to 2017 European Leadership Board RevPAR growth since Sep-2008, EUR

15 The 2008 to 2017 European Leadership Board RevPAR growth since Sep-2008, EUR +63% Change in local currency +43% +8% -17% +20% -5% +26% +7% -31%

16 ADR yield increased at high compression Compression Analysis, Sep YTD, 2017 vs 2008, local currency # Compression Nights (>90% Occ) ADR Premium Sep 2008 YTD Sep 2017 YTD Sep 2008 YTD Sep 2017 YTD Dublin % +46% Barcelona % +63% London % +37% Note: ADR premium compares compression nights (>=90% occupancy) compared to low occupancy nights (<70%)

17 UK hotels Brexit boost coming down to earth?

18 London growth at the top of the league table RevPAR & Change, September 2017 YTD, USD Constant Currency Cape Town RevPAR: (+9.5%) Hong Kong RevPAR: (+4.9%) London RevPAR: (+6.5%) Dubai RevPAR: (-4.3%) Rio de Janeiro RevPAR: (-49.8%) New York RevPAR: (-0.7%) Miami RevPAR: (-3.9%) Tokyo RevPAR: (+1.2%) Paris RevPAR: (+8.8%) Sydney RevPAR: (+6.2%)

19 Growth widespread across the UK September 2017 YTD, RevPAR & Change Inverness 10-7 Aberdeen UK Total: +5.2% London: +6.5% Regional UK: +4.0% Glasgow 5 Belfast Blackpool 8 14 Edinburgh 3 Newcastle Leeds Liverpool Birmingham 3 Manchester 5 Nottingham 1 Cambridge Cardiff 10 Bristol 4 5 Oxford 7 London 2 Southampton Plymouth 11

20 driven by Sterling weakness which is now used up London Exchange Rate Impact, Jun 2016 Sep 2017, ADR, GBP vs USD ADR ( ) ADR ($) -30 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

21 as a result, demand is waning and occupancy is declining London, Jun 2016 Sep 2017, GBP 10% Occupancies have turned negative and ADR growth is waning 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Occupancy % Chg ADR % Chg

22 Expense growth has been muted so far but is a future concern London Profitability Trend, GBP, Full Year Per Available Room GBP 250 GBP 200 GBP 150 GBP 100 Gross Operating Profit Total Expenses GOP Margin % % 48% 48% 48% 47% 47% 47% GBP 50 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 47% 47% GBP %

23 Hotels rise above terror

24 Hotel markets are showing increased resilience to terror attacks RevPAR indexed to month before terror, 12 months rolling, local currency Terror Attack No impact: Barcelona, London, Berlin, Manchester Recovered: Nice, Tunisia Not yet recovered: Istanbul, Brussels, Paris Month Terror T+1 T+2 T+3 T+4 T+5 T+6 T+7 T+8 T+9 T+10 T+11 T+12 T+13 T+14 T+15 T+16 T+17 T+18 T+19 T+20 T+21 T+22 T+23 T+24 T+25 T+26 T+27 Before Terror London Manchester Barcelona Berlin Nice Tunisia Brussels Paris Istanbul

25 Sun shining on the Mediterranean

26 2017 saw stronger growth in North-Med and recovery elsewhere September 2017 YTD, RevPAR % Change, local currency -1.7 Cote D Azur / Provence Barcelona 15.1 Croatian Coast Lisbon Balearic Islands Marbella Algarve 20.2 Marrakech 42.0 Tunis 9.5 Italian Islands 31.8 Istanbul Bodrum Tel Aviv 4.2 Canary Islands 86.2 Cairo 1.6 Eliat Sharm El Sheikh

27 Cities: Lisbon and Barcelona outperform, Cairo recovers RevPAR indexed from September 2011 YTD to 2017 YTD, EUR Cairo Lisbon Barcelona Madrid Athens Marseille Rome Marrakech Istanbul

28 Resorts: High and continuous RevPAR growth in the EuroMed RevPAR indexed from September 2011 YTD to 2017 YTD, EUR Algarve Canary Islands Balearic Islands Marbella Italian Islands Sharm El Sheikh

29 Conclusions

30 Conclusions Performance is at new highs Brexit benefit slowing down? Resilience to terror Mediterranean highs Fundamentals are strong European hotels performance is well-ahead of previous peak levels rising above the challenges of the recession, terrorist attacks, increased supply and private rentals The boost London received from weak sterling seems to have run its course Expect slower RevPAR growth next year and increased cost pressure London, Manchester, Barcelona & Berlin shrug off terror attacks Nice and Tunisia have recovered. Paris, Brussels and Istanbul on their way back. EuroMed cities performance has soared since 2014 and EuroMed resort markets have grown even more European tourism has strong long-term structural growth drivers Supply growth remains muted in all but certain gateway cities

31 Thank You! Robin Rossmann STR_Data STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.