PROPOSALS FOR MEDIUM AND LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT

Transcription

1 MICHAEL SCHABAS FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS 28 GRAND AVENUE, LONDON UNITED KINGDOM N10 3BB 13 July 2013 Airports Commission By to PROPOSALS FOR MEDIUM AND LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT 1 Summary First Class Partnerships Limited is submitting this proposal for development of Stansted as a Second Hub for London. FCP is a specialist rail strategy consultancy. We advise local and central government, transport operators, infrastructure owners and developers. We are based in the UK but advise clients around the world. Our partners have completed several assignments considering issues of London airport rail access. Previous studies (SERAS, RUCATSE, etc.) have broadly confirmed the environmental and aeronautical feasibility of expanding Stansted as a four-runway airport. It seems very likely that this can be delivered at much lower cost, and with less environmental impacts, than similar capacity either on a greenfield site, or by expansion of another existing airport. We are also satisfied that London can support a second, and even a third, major airport, operating alongside Heathrow, as a competitor. Indeed, this could be better for passengers, and for regional development, because all parts of the southeast would have convenient access to a wide range of long-haul and short-haul flights. Claims that there can only be one hub are false, and serve the interests of existing dominant players. The problem, however, is that Stansted is remote; with slow and inconvenient ground transport links to most parts of southeast England. Previous work (mostly by BAA) has focussed on incremental improvements to the speed and connectivity that is required. FCP has developed an integrated strategy to give Stansted the rail access it needs to be attractive to network and long haul carriers. This includes:! Construction of a new railway, mostly along the M11 from ExCEL to Stansted! Extension of Crossrail services via the new railway to Stansted, with up to 12 trains per hour! A Stansted Javelin service, from St Pancras via HS1 and Stratford, then over the new railway to Stansted, with 4 trains per hour! Upgrading of the existing West Anglia lines, as an East London Metro, with up to 12 trains per hour (tph)! Complementary improvements to Crossrail and other rail services to enable direct services across the entire region! Increases to the existing Cross Country services, with 4 tph via Cambridge (2 tph to Peterborough and the West Midlands, and 2 tph to Norwich). PAGE 1 / 6 FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED Registered in England and Wales Number VAT Number

2 This infrastructure could support a four-runway airport with an ultimate capacity of 160 mppa. As a working assumption, we assume traffic of 50mppa in 2030, and 100 mppa by We have confirmed outline commercial and technical feasibility of the new railways. We have developed estimates of capital and operating costs and revenues. We believe the strategy can be implemented with private sector funding, with only limited Government and regulatory involvement and without subsidy. There would be no need to close Heathrow, or to downgrade it. However, it might make good policy for the CAA to require a gradual reduction in slots at Heathrow, perhaps to 85% of the current level, over a period of time. This would improve resilience, reduce stacking, and also reduce airport noise. The cost to buy back the slots might be incorporated in Heathrow s RAB. Of course such a policy would further strengthen the viability of an expanded Stansted. What is lacking is a developer with the appetite and financial capability to promote the project. Existing asset owners are risk-averse, although there is potentially the prospect of a private sector return. We suggest Government create a project company, on the model of Union Railway Limited. This would complete planning and preliminary design, and promote a Hybrid Bill for the airport expansion and the associated transport improvements. With planning risks removed, the scheme could then be sold to a private developer. 2 Existing Transport to Stansted Stansted already has reasonable road connection to north London, eastern and central England, by the motorway network and the A14 trunk road. While the so-called Stansted Express provides a frequent service to central London, it is relatively slow and congested at peak times. Access beyond Liverpool Street, to the West End, South or west London, and other parts of southern England, requires at least one and usually two interchanges, involving lengthy escalator rides and travel on cramped tube trains. Most passengers travel by road, but journeys around London on the M25 can be slow, expensive, and subject to unpredictable delays. Previous work by BAA focussed on journey time and capacity improvements over the existing route to Liverpool Street. While it is possible, at substantial cost, to upgrade this line to provide higher capacity and speeds, it would not address the problem of connectivity. Research has conclusively shown that airport passengers are highly averse to interchanges. People will take the train to the airport if it offers a reliable, comfortable, frequent and direct service. They will not take it if they must make complicated interchanges, which are difficult with luggage and that add risk to the journey. 3 Proposed Rail Services We have developed proposals to provide four types of rail services from Stansted, offering appropriate quality, frequency and capacity for access to the airport by workers and for travellers from across southern England. Our proposals have been developed drawing on FCP s detailed knowledge of capabilities of the existing rail network, and the technical feasibility and cost to provide additional services. PAGE 2 / 6

3 3.1 Crossrail+ Services The core of our proposal is an extension of Crossrail, which has the potential to attract and carry almost one-third of airport passengers. This would require construction of a new 45km railway, an extension of Crossrail, from a new surface junction just east of ExCEL (Custom House) to Stansted. The line runs in tunnel from 10km, from Excel to Fairlop Water, then 45km on the surface or shallow cutting, mostly alongside the M11 motorway. It will be a 100 mph railway, not strictly high speed, which means there is more ability to avoid existing settlements, with (potentially) no residential property takings, and no impacts on ancient woodlands or other sensitive areas. No new stations are required. The railway is deliverable at a capital cost of about 3.5bn. This cost estimate is based on engineering studies already carried out by Mott MacDonald for Crossrail Limited. Broadly, the new line is half the length, and thus half the cost, of HS1. The environmental impacts of the route are significantly less than HS1, per mile, because the area is more sparsely developed. Direct Crossrail+ trains would run from Stansted every 5 to 10 minutes via Canary Wharf and Central London, to Paddington, Heathrow and places further west. Trip time from Stansted to ExCEL would be 20 minutes, and 35 minutes to Farringdon. The route gives superb connectivity, with direct journeys to stations across London, and same-platform and high-quality interchanges (not requiring use of the tube) to literally hundreds of stations across southern England. There would be direct interchange onto HS2 at Old Oak Common. This service would be attractive to outbound rail-savvy passengers travelling to Stansted from across southern England. 3.2 Stansted Javelin In addition to Crossrail+, a dedicated Stansted Javelin service would operate every 15 minutes to St. Pancras. This would use the same infrastructure from the Airport into London, with a connection on HS1 under east London. Journey time would be less than 30 minutes. It would have a similar function to Heathrow Express. It would be attractive to passengers with heavy luggage, and inbound tourists less familiar with the rail network. At St Pancras it would provide good connections with intercity and high-speed rail services, and the Thameslink network. We expect that it would carry about 20% of airport passengers. Depending upon the ultimate configuration of HS2, it may be possible to run some high speed services from northern England onto HS1 and then via the new railway to Stansted. There could be an hourly service from Birmingham to Stansted over the new line, HS1 and HS2, with a journey time of about 75 minutes. 3.3 East London Overground Existing trains from Cambridge via Bishops Stortford would be diverted onto the new railway at Sawbridgeworth, offering faster journeys directly into central London for thousands of commuters. This would release capacity on the West Anglia route via Harlow and Broxbourne, which could be developed into an East London Overground. There would 6 tph to Stansted from Liverpool Street, and 6 tph from Stratford, calling at most PAGE 3 / 6

4 stations. These will give a dramatic improvement in access within the Lea Valley corridor, giving access to airport jobs and supporting economic regeneration. It has the potential to turn the Lea Valley into an economic powerhouse like the Thames Valley. 3.4 Complementary Improvements to Crossrail in West London Incremental expansion of the Crossrail network in West London can expand the range of stations with direct or same-platform access to Stansted. With investments of under 1bn, trains could run through to Guildford and Basingstoke, with connections across the southwest, and to Milton Keynes. These improvements will also benefit Heathrow. 3.5 Services to other destinations The existing hourly service via Cambridge to Peterborough, Leicester and Birmingham can be improved, probably with 4 tph via Cambridge, 2 tph going forward to Leicester and Birmingham, and 2 tph to Norwich. Altogether, more than 500 rail stations across southern England would have direct, sameplatform or easy interchange access to Stansted, with journey times competitive with access to Heathrow. 4 Related Development Stansted is located in the Lea Valley M11 Cambridge corridor, which is designated by government as a growth corridor. Development of the airport would greatly increase development potential in the entire corridor and across East London, and Eastern England. The ExCEL exhibition centre, Canary Wharf, Stratford City, and O2 Arena would all be within 25 minutes of the airport, with trains every few minutes. All of these have potential for more intensive development. The airport is in greenbelt. However, four major property companies have assembled about 2,000 acres immediately east of the airport. Some of this would be required for airport expansion. However there is also space to develop a new town. We suggest there may be a case for developing an eco town, aimed primarily at airport workers, who would use public transport or bicycle to commute to airport jobs. Most airport workers currently use shuttle buses from employee car parks; the eco town would be even more convenient. Private car ownership would be restricted. This would greatly reduce road traffic impacts of airport workers. With a fast train service, the eco town could also be attractive to London city commuters. 5 Implementation FCP has discussed the scheme with Parliamentary Agents who believe that statutory powers for the entire scheme, including the airport expansion and the Crossrail+ railway, could be secured through a Hybrid Bill. Based on experience of HS1 and Crossrail, feasibility studies and environmental assessments could be completed in about three years, and a Hybrid Bill promoted and passed into law within a further year or two. The cost might be about 50m. BAA has already completed considerable work on environmental impacts relating to the airport expansion, although these would need to be reviewed and updated. The new railway PAGE 4 / 6

5 follows mostly alongside the M11 or in tunnel, and has no new stations and no identified impacts on sensitive environmental areas. Construction would take a further four to five years. Total cost would be about 10 billion, including 4billion for the railway works and 6 billion for the airport expansion. 6 The Business Case FCP has developed an outline business case. This indicates that the new railways would be profitable, with passenger revenues paying all costs for operations and paying a return on the infrastructure in excess of the public sector cost of capital. Using conservative assumptions for future growth in air travel, the cost of airport expansion could also be paid from landing charges, generally in line with those charged at competing airports. While existing infrastructure owners (MAG, HS1, Network Rail) and property owners (ExCEL, Stratford City, Canary Wharf) have the potential to earn profits from the project, the project is too speculative and uncertain to secure full private sector funding at this stage.. We suggest Government follow the model used for HS1. A new company would be formed to promote the hybrid bill, and to put in place binding commitments from Government to purchase train paths over the new line. This company would then be sold, perhaps with some government guarantee of a portion of the debt. Although the government did not succeed in transferring traffic risks for HS1 to the private sector, design and delivery risks were effectively transferred and the project was completed broadly on time and on budget. With a government commitment to provide the rail infrastructure, MAG might be encouraged to proceed with expansion of the airport on a commercial basis, within the existing regulatory regime. This might be enhanced by:! CAA granting freedom to set charges for new landing slots at market rates, as they are at London City, Luton and Southend.! CAA requiring Heathrow to reduce the total number of landing slots at Heathrow over 10 years by say 15% over a period of time, to provide greater resilience, and reduce the need for environmentally damaging stacking and airport noise. The cost to buy back the slots could be absorbed into the Heathrow RAB.! A government commitment not to support further expansion at Heathrow and Gatwick We would be happy to answer any questions and look forward to your conclusions. Yours sincerely, Michael Schabas Partner, FCP PAGE 5 / 6

6 Confidential Annex FCP partners have advised many public and private clients with respect to London airport access Client Assignment Performed by HS1 Limited 2013 Canary Wharf Group Cross London Rail Links (Crossrail Limited) Strategic Rail Authority Department of Transport 1995 Department of Transport 1994 Union Railways Limited Canary Wharf Developments Department of Transport Capacity of HS1 for additional services including airport services Study of development of rail services via Canary Wharf to serve an expanded Stansted Airport Study of proposals to extend Crossrail to Stansted, Basingstoke, Milton Keynes Development and promotion of Crossrail and Thameslink projects London Airport Surface Access Study Review of the Crossrail Project Development of strategies for HS1, including possible airport links Development of the Jubilee Line Extension and DLR Central London Rail Study FCP (Partner in charge Chris Stokes) FCP (Partner in charge Michael Schabas) Michael Schabas through GB Railways Chris Stokes, Deputy Franchising Director Michael Schabas through Prideaux & Associates Michael Schabas through Jacobs and URS Engineering Michael Schabas, Advisor Michael Schabas, VP Transport, CWD Chris Stokes, Planning Director, Network Southeast PAGE 6 / 6

7 SUSTAINABLE STANSTED! How to use railways to make Stansted London s most accessible airport 1 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

8 SUSTAINABLE STANSTED Other studies have confirmed the environmental and aeronautical feasibility of developing a four-runway airport at Stansted The challenge is access the airport is relatively remote from passengers and workers FCP, a leading UK rail strategy consultancy, has developed comprehensive proposals to improve rail access to Stansted. These go far beyond schemes studied by BAA. The objective is to make Stansted sufficiently accessible that, with runway and terminal expansion, it can become a second hub for London, to rival Heathrow. Our proposals can be developed without public subsidy, and paid for by air passengers. 2 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

9 You can t have two hubs... it s either Heathrow or it is another. Colin Matthews, Heathrow Chief Executive We disagree for a big city, 2 or even 3 hubs may be better for passengers (although perhaps not for the incumbent airlines or the airport owner!)! 4 World Cities already have more than one hub airport.! In New York, United, after merging with Continental, left JFK creating its own hub at Newark with 35 mppa! Moscow, Shanghai and Tokyo are all developing multi-hub airport systems! Above 30 mppa, bigger may not be better... 3 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

10 What does a good hub need? To have a hub airport you need:! At least 2 runways so planes can land when they want to....! High quality terminals for 40 mppa or more! Fast rail link to central London (mostly for inbound travellers)! Good road or single-interchange rail access to the region (for outbound travellers)! Access for airport workers ideally 24/7 public transport Currently only Heathrow has these so there is only one London hub. This situation suits Heathrow, and its airlines Heathrow says there is only one hub, because the UK only has one network airline Of course BA and Heathrow like this arrangement We say if we create another high quality airport, with excellent transport links, airlines will emerge to use it REGION Millions passengers per annum Hub airports; other airports London New York Tokyo 98 2 Atlanta 92 1 Chicago Los Angeles Paris Beijing 77 1 Shanghai 60 2 Frankfurt 61 1 Dallas Hong Kong 53 1 Denver 53 1 Jakarta 52 1 Dubai 51 1 Amsterdam Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

11 Two hubs are better than one! Airline profits may be highest with a single hub. But three hubs are better for passengers, and for London! Passengers will benefit from shorter access journeys, and competition! All parts of the Southeast will be attractive to global industries! 30 million people live within 2 hours of Stansted! But it needs more runways, and better transport, to attract long haul traffic! A package of rail investments can make Stansted as accessible as Heathrow from much of southern England STN$ LHR$ LGW$ POPULATION MAP OF UK (From CAA) 5 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

12 Bristol Nuneaton transport strategy Birmingham Coventry Cheltenham Gloucester Bristol SUSTAINABLE STANSTED Integrated Worcester Stratford Swindon Banbury Oxford Reading Hinckley Rugby Crossrail to Milton Keynes Northampton Marlow Henley Maidenhead Windsor & Eaton Aylesbury Milton Keynes Slough Greenford 123 Heathrow Staines 5 Bedford Overground (and Stevenage Luton Airport future Crossrail 2) Watford Ealing Broadway 4 Stansted Express via HS1 to St Pancras East London Old Oak Welwyn Garden City St Albans Harrow & Wealdstone King s Cross St Pancras Liverpool Euston KX Street St Pancras Euston Edmonton Green Paddington Farringdon London Bridge Enfield Hertford Seven Sisters Hackney Downs EAST Whitechapel Broxbourne Brimsdown Chingford Tottenham Hale Stratford Lea Valley - Stansted Cambridge Growth Corridor Canary Wharf ExCEL Bishops Stortford LONDON OVERGROUND Cambridge Audley End Stansted Airport Shenfield Romford Abbey Wood Upminster Braintree Ebbsfleet Sudbury Expand Stansted to 100 million Ipswich ppa Felixstowe Extend Crossrail to Stansted and Cambridge Colchester Southminster Southend Sheerness Harwich Walton-on-the-Naze Clacton-on-Sea Crossrail+ Stansted - Birmingham East London Overground Possible link into Crossrail 2 Selected stations only shown Westbury Southampton Basingstoke Ascot Wokingham Bracknell Farnborough Alt on Salisbury Crossrail to Woking, Basingstoke and Reading Woking Guildford Horsham East Croydon Caterham Gatwick Airport New railways mostly over existing tracks Sevenoaks Tonbridge Airport expansion and railways authorised in a single Hybrid Bill East Grinstead Uckfield Tunbridge Wells Maidstone East Hastings Gillingham Ashford Canterbury Ramsgate Dover Continental Europe Lewes Littlehampton Brighton 6 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

13 Expand Stansted with 4 runways Existing Stansted railway spur Proposed Second Terminal Existing terminal New Stansted Express railway 7 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

14 To Become A Hub, Stansted Needs Better Connectivity! With poor transport links, Stansted serves mostly local passengers on low-cost airlines! From most parts of the southeast, rail access requires two or three interchanges; too risky, too slow, and too much hassle for most passengers! Transport is key to making Stansted successful, as it was to Canary Wharf.! Like Canary Wharf, the key problem is connectivity (although speed and capacity are also important). The current Stansted Express link to Liverpool Street is analogous to the DLR link to Bank. Access to the West End requires a change of train, and access to many destinations requires two changes! Stansted needs its Jubilee Line Extension. A link into Crossrail can give Stansted the connections it needs. It will have connections with 7 out of 10 underground lines and with about half of the National Rail routes. With other additions to Crossrail, connections can be made to threequarters of National Rail lines.! Stansted also needs a Heathrow Express, a dedicated shuttle for passengers with lots of luggage. Many will take a taxi from a central London terminal Southend) 8 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

15 Stansted will need a lot of trains... and the existing railway is already pretty full Passengers per year (millions per year/mode share) Trains per hour (departures) Passengers per train Total/ Terminating Car, taxi, bus Express Rail Regional Express Rail Local/ other rail Express rail Regional Express rail Local/ other rail Express Rail Regional Express Rail Local/other rail Heathrow / % 6 12% Future Crossrail % 4 Heathrow Express Future Crossrail 1 14 Piccadilly, Heathrow Connect 115 Future Crossrail 1 32 Gatwick / % 7 22% 5 16% 1 3% 4 Gatwick Express 18 Thameslink, Southern 1 Great Western Stansted / % % <1 2% 0 4 Stansted Express 1 Cross Country Stansted / % 8 20% 8 20% 6 15% 4 St Pancras via HS1 8 Crossrail 1 10 Cross Country, EL Overground Stansted / % 16 20% 24 30% 22 28% 4 St Pancras via HS1 12 Crossrail 1 16 Cross Country, EL Overground, Crossrail Stansted 2025 and 2050 assumptions:! No net increase in car or bus/coach traffic! 12-car trains may be on Stansted Express Rail services before Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

16 A high rail mode share can limit the need for road system expansion Trains per hour (all day) Express Rail to St Pancras Crossrail Express via Broxbourne East London Overground via Seven Sisters/Crossrail 2 East London Overground to Stratford Cross Country via Cambridge to Midlands (and perhaps Norwich?) TOTAL Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

17 Peterborough Hinckley Extending Crossrail is the key m Stamford March Ely Cambridge Ipswich Felixstowe! The existing West Anglia line is already full. 4-tracking would be very expensive and disruptive! A Crossrail branch, on a new greenfield route can be built for about 3.5 billion! It can provide paths for 24 tph! 12 tph can run from Stansted into Crossrail! 6 tph can run from Stansted over HS1 to St Pancras! The new line can also be used by 6 tph from Cambridge into Crossrail! With fast services removed, the existing route via Broxbourne can be converted into an East London Overground! Incremental revenues can offset the extra costs even including CAPEX d Luton Airport King s Cross Old St Pancras Liverpool Oak Euston KX Street Euston St Pancras Paddington Farringdon d am Welwyn Garden City St Albans Harrow & Wealdstone Waterloo) Stevenage Edmonton Green London Bridge East Croydon Caterham Gatwick Airport Enfield Hertford Seven Sisters Hackney Downs EAST Whitechapel East Grinstead Lewes Chingford Tottenham Hale Uckfield Stratford Canary Wharf ExCEL Bishops Stortford LONDON OVERGROUND Broxbourne Brimsdown Audley End Stansted Airport Shenfield Romford Abbey Wood Sevenoaks Upminster Tonbridge Braintree Ebbsfleet Sudbury Tunbridge Wells Maidstone East Hastings Gillingham Colchester Southminster Southend Sheerness Ashford Canterbury Ramsgate Dover Harwich Walton-on-the-Naze Clacton-on-Sea Crossrail+ New track East London Overground Continental Europe Selected stations only shown 11 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

18 Extend Crossrail to Stansted Second tunnel into Stansted Bishops Stortford To Cambridge STANSTED! 14 km surface line Sawbridgeworth Junction into Stansted ( 30m/km)! 23 km surface railway Fairlop Waters to Sawbridgeworth, mostly alongside M11 ( 30m/km)! 2km tunnel under Hawk Hill ( 150m/km)! 10km tunnel ExCEL to Fairlop Waters (deep tunnel, no stations, so 150m/km)! 2km tunnel under Hawk Hill! Allowance for central London station improvements for airport passengers and 30 trains per hour signalling Total cost about! Plus doubling Stansted tunnel for East London Overground and increased Cross Country services Cost estimate is based on figures provided by Mott MacDonald and Crossrail Limited Stansted rail station expansion costs to be included in budget for airport terminal 0.5bn 0.8bn 0.3bn 1.5bn 0.3bn 0.4bn 3.5bn 0.2bn Liverpool Street WHITECHAPEL STRATFORD Canary Wharf Sawbridgeworth Maryland M25 Forest Gate Manor Park ExCEL Ilford Seven Kings M11 Goodmayes Abbey Wood Chadwell Heath Surface Sawbridgeworth - Stansted Surface Fairlop Waters - Sawbridgeworth ROMFORD Gidea Park Harold Wood Brentwood SHENFIELD Tunnel Fairlop Waters ExCEL (Custom House) 12 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

19 A NEW RAILWAY INTO ESSEX a. Second track and tunnel into Stansted Stansted Mountfichet a" TO CAMBRIDGE STANSTED HS1 to St Pancras b. Existing West Anglia line c. New surface line Stansted Harlow North Junction d. Connection to West Anglia Line for Cambridge services e. Route for Crossrail 2 services e" f. New surface line alongside M11 Harlow North Hawks Hill g. Possible station at South Harlow (bus/ cycle feed from Harlow Town) h. Tunnel (2 km long) under Hawks Hill Wood to cross M11 i. New surface line through open country Hawks Hill Fairlop Portal j. Possible stations to serve smaller ecotowns at North Weald and Stapleford aerodromes k. Deep tunnel under Ilford and East Ham to ExCEL mostly under the North Circular Road m. Surface junction at ExCEL 13 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS Crossrail PARTNERSHIPS to LIMITED All rights reserved Central London Stratford International CANARY WHARF ExCEL n$ BISHOPS STORTFORD SAWBRIDGEWORTH HARLOW MILL m" g" h" k" d" b" f" South Harlow North Weald j" i" j" Fairlop Waters Portal Stapleford c" For Video of the route see: $

20 28 trains each hour on 4 routes 2013 Andrew Smithers Project Mapping Crossrail 4c 20/1/13 Leicester Melton Mowbray CROSS Oakham COUNTRY Peterborough Stamford March Lowestoft Hinckley Ely Wolverhampton Ipswich Nuneaton Cambridge Felixstowe Birmingham Coventry Audley End Harwich Worcester Each hour: Cheltenham 12 Regional Express trains through GloucesterCrossrail to south Bristol west, west and Stratford 4 Express trains direct to St Pancras via HS1 Docklands, and Central London, Crossrail extensions to the northwest Swindon 8 Overground trains to local Bristol stations in East London, and in future through Crossrail 2 4 Cross Country Westbury trains via Cambridge, to Birmingham and perhaps Norwich easy interchange to hundreds Salisbury of other stations Banbury Reading Basingstoke HIGH SPEED TWO Oxford Rugby Wokingham Northampton Marlow Henley Maidenhead Windsor & Eaton Alton Aylesbury Bracknell Farnborough Milton Keynes Slough Greenford 123 Heathrow 5 Staines Ascot Watford Ealing Broadway 4 Bedford Woking Guildford Luton Airport Old Oak Welwyn Garden City St Albans Harrow & Wealdstone Kings X St Pancras Stevenage Edmonton Green Seven Sisters Hackney Downs King s Cross St Pancras Liverpool Street Euston Paddington Farringdon Whitechapel London Bridge East Croydon Caterham Gatwick Airport Enfield Hertford EAST Broxbourne Tottenham Hale Stratford Canary Wharf ExCEL Bellingham Bishops Stortford LONDON OVERGROUND Brimsdown Chingford Stansted Airport Shenfield Romford Abbey Wood Upminster Sevenoaks Tonbridge Braintree Ebbsfleet Sudbury HIGH SPEED ONE Maidstone East Tunbridge Wells Gillingham Colchester Southminster Southend Sheerness Ashford Canterbury Walton-on-the-Naze Clacton-on-Sea Crossrail+ Thameslink Stansted - Birmingham East London Overground Step free connections High Speed Possible Crossrail 2 Ramsgate Dover Selected stations only shown East Grinstead Southampton Horsham Hastings Continental Europe Uckfield Lewes Dorchester Bournemouth Portsmouth Bognor Regis Littlehampton Brighton Seaford Eastbourne 14 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

21 Balancing branches in the west can provide even more Hinckley connections to Stansted, and make Crossrail more profitable Ipswich Nuneaton Cambridge Felixstowe Birmingham Coventry Crossrail to Milton Keynes Worcester Stratford Existing Northampton Banbury service diverted into Crossrail Rugby Northampton Milton Keynes Bedford Luton Airport Welwyn Garden City St Albans Stevenage Enfield Bishops Stortford Audley End Stansted Airport Crossrail to Stansted and Cambridge Harwich Walton-on-the-Naze Sudbury Additional Cambridge Colchester and Clacton-on-Sea Stansted trains Braintree Cheltenham Gloucester Aylesbury Watford Hertford Edmonton Green Broxbourne Brimsdown Chingford Shenfield Southminster To make money, Crossrail trains need to go Bristol faster, further, over Swindon more routes, and serve off-peak and contrapeak istol flows Westbury Reading Basingstoke Oxford Maidenhead Wokingham Bracknell Alt on Salisbury Crossrail to Woking, Basingstoke and Southampton Reading Dorchester Henley Heathrow services extended to Basingstoke, Guildford and Reading via Wokingham Marlow Windsor & Eaton Slough Greenford Heathrow Staines Ascot Farnborough Ealing Broadway 4 Woking Guildford Littlehampton Horsham Harrow & Wealdstone Old Oak King s Cross St Pancras Euston Paddington Farringdon Brighton Seven Sisters Hackney Downs Liverpool Street London Bridge East Croydon Caterham Gatwick Airport Whitechapel East Grinstead Lewes Tottenham Hale Uckfield Stratford Canary Wharf ExCEL Romford Abbey Wood Sevenoaks Upminster Ebbsfleet + Maidstone East Gillingham Southend Sheerness 30 tph through central London 100 mph trains just like Thameslink Tonbridge 4 main routes with 10 terminal Ashfordstations Tunbridge Wells All train paths used, all day long Stansted, ExCEL and HastingsHeathrow Canterbury passengers fill empty contra-peak seats Crossrail+ Ramsgate Dover Continental Europe Selected stations only shown 15 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

22 s + Leicester Melton Mowbray Peterborough Hinckley Wolverhampton 30 tph all day service pattern Nuneaton Oakham Stamford March Ely CAMBRIDGE 6 trains/hr Cambridge Ipswich Felixstowe Lowestoft Worcester Birmingham Coventry NORTHAMPTON 6 trains/hr Stratford Rugby Northampton Bedford Luton Airport Stevenage Bishops Stortford Audley End Stansted Airport STANSTED 12 trains/hr Sudbury Colchester Harwich Walton-on-the-Naze Clacton-on-Sea eltenham cester Banbury Milton Keynes Aylesbury Watford Welwyn Garden City St Albans Enfield Hertford Edmonton Green Broxbourne Brimsdown Chingford Shenfield Braintree SHENFIELD 6 trains/hr Southminster SLOUGH AND READING 6 trains/hr tol Westbury Swindon Southampton Reading READING VIA BRACKNELL 2 trains/hr BASINGSTOKE Salisbury 8 trains/hr Basingstoke Oxford Marlow Henley Maidenhead Windsor & Eaton Wokingham Bracknell Alt on Slough Greenford Heathrow Staines Ascot Farnborough GUILDFORD 2 trains/hr Ealing Broadway 4 Woking Guildford Horsham Harrow & Wealdstone Old Oak King s Cross St Pancras Euston Seven Sisters Hackney Downs Paddington Farringdon Liverpool Street London Bridge East Croydon Caterham Gatwick Airport Whitechapel HEATHROW T4 6 trains/hr East Grinstead Lewes Tottenham Hale Uckfield Stratford Canary Wharf ExCEL Romford Abbey Wood Sevenoaks Upminster Tonbridge Ebbsfleet ABBEY WOOD 6 trains/hr Tunbridge Wells Maidstone East Hastings Gillingham Southend Sheerness Ashford Canterbury Crossrail+ Ramsgate Dover Continental Europe Selected stations only shown Littlehampton Brighton Eastbourne 16 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

23 Bristol Hinckley + and the East London Overground run mostly over Nuneaton Cambridge existing track, adding capacity to busy routes... Birmingham Swindon Coventry Crossrail to Milton Worcester Keynes Cheltenham Gloucester Bristol Stratford Banbury 500m capex 50m/yr incremental revenues Oxford Reading Rugby Northampton Marlow Henley Maidenhead Windsor & Eaton Aylesbury Milton Keynes Slough Greenford 123 Heathrow Staines 5 Bedford Watford Ealing Broadway 4 Luton Airport St Albans Old Oak Welwyn Garden City Harrow & Wealdstone King s Cross St Pancras Liverpool Street Euston Paddington Farringdon Waterloo Stevenage Edmonton Green London Bridge Enfield Hertford Seven Sisters Hackney Downs EAST Whitechapel Chingford Tottenham Hale Stratford Canary Wharf ExCEL Bishops Stortford LONDON OVERGROUND Broxbourne Brimsdown Audley End Stansted Airport Shenfield Romford Abbey Wood Upminster Braintree Ebbsfleet Felixstowe Harwich Crossrail to Stansted and Cambridge Walton-on-the-Naze Sudbury Colchester Clacton-on-Sea 3.4bn capex (including EL Overground works) 300m/yr incremental revenues Southminster Southend Sheerness Crossrail+ New track Existing routes East London Overground Selected stations only shown Wokingham Bracknell Ascot Westbury Basingstoke Farnborough Woking Guildford East Croydon Sevenoaks Maidstone East Gillingham Canterbury Ramsgate Dorchester Salisbury Crossrail to Woking, Southampton Basingstoke and Reading 1bn capex 100m/yr incremental revenues Alt on Portsmouth Bognor Regis Littlehampton Horsham Caterham Gatwick Airport Eastbourne Tonbridge Tunbridge Wells East Grinstead Continental Europe... so incremental revenues Hastings will offset Uckfield Lewes the extra costs (even including CAPEX) Brighton Ashford Dover 17 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

24 East London Overground recapture the Lea Valley lines for local passengers and prepare the way for Crossrail 2 To Stansted! The West Anglia/Lea Valley lines serve a densely populated lower-income corridor! There are trains into London from all stations, but poor services between stations! From most stations, travel to Stansted requires changing trains once or even twice! Shifting Stansted Express and Cambridge services on to Crossrail will release capacity for frequent services from 28 stations to Stansted Airport! These services can operate 24/7 trains to (like Thameslink offers to Gatwick and Luton) serving airport workers and travellers! Future link into Crossrail 2? Enfield Haringey Islington Crossrail 2 Hackney Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Redbridge Newham 18 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

25 Making the Lea Valley like the Thames Valley! A railway to airport jobs! Local Boroughs are already working in partnership to regenerate the corridor! But it is remote from a long haul airport, and the railway barely serves local stations! Stansted and the East London Overground can make the M11 Corridor into a hi-tech powerhouse like the M4 corridor 19 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

26 Extend Crossrail to Milton Keynes! Short underground connection at Kensal Green to West Coast slow lines costs 0.3bn! Watford/Milton Keynes/Northampton trains diverted into Crossrail! Takes 5,000 peak hour passengers out of Euston, relieving severe congestion on Victoria and Northern lines! Extends same-platform access to West Coast Main Line (Watford, Milton Keynes, West Midlands)! Western destination for Cambridge trains (which also must be 100 mph stock)! Scheme now identified in Network Rail s Route Utilisation Strategy, but lacks eastern complement Hinckley Map of scheme in 2010 Network Rail RUS Rugby Oxford Bedford Luton Airport Welwyn Garden City Milton Keynes St Albans Aylesbury Watford Edmonton Green Harrow & Wealdstone Northampton Marlow ing Henley Maidenhead Windsor & Eaton Slough Greenford 123 Heathrow 5 Ealing Broadway 4 Old Oak King s Cross St Pancras Euston Paddington Farring Only 1 km of new track is required, at Kensal Green (Old Oak Common) 20 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

27 A short tunnel under Kensal Green Cemetery links the Northampton lines into Crossrail West Coast Main Line to Milton Keynes and Northampton To Euston Kensal Green Cemetery Crossrail to Heathrow Crossrail to Paddington 21 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

28 Extend Crossrail To Reading And Basingstoke Edmonton Green! Short tunnel under M25 alongside Staines connects Southwest into Crossrail.! Links Heathrow - Woking in 15 minutes.! Same platform services between Cambridge, Stansted, HS2 at Old Oak, and Heathrow to Guildford, Winchester, Southampton, Portsmouth, Exeter, etc.! Capital cost under 1 bn! Creates 8 peak hour paths from Woking Westbury into Crossrail, so very profitable! Compatible with Network Rail proposal that Crossrail subsume Heathrow Express, with 10 tph, skip-stop ( 20 minutes every 6 minutes )! All trains would serve Heathrow T123 AND T5! 4 tph could terminate at T4! 2 tph might go to Reading via Staines ol Salisbury! Relieves congestion into Waterloo, on the Tube and Waterloo, and on M3, M25 Swindon Reading Basingstoke Southampton Marlow Henley Wokingham Maidenhead Windsor & Eaton Alton Bracknell Slough Greenford Heathrow Staines Ascot Farnborough Ealing Broadway 4 Woking Guildford Littlehampton Horsham Old Oak King s Cross St Pancras Liverpool Street Euston Paddington Farringdon Brighton Hackney Downs London Bridge East Croydon Caterham Gatwick Airport Whitechap Be East Grinste Lewes Uc Bournemouth Portsmouth Bognor Regis 22 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

29 SOUTHWEST CONNECTION 1. New surface railway Terminal 5 to Staines as in Airtrack scheme 2. Western chord at Staines for services to Reading via Staines, Egham, Bracknell 3. New deep bore tunnel Staines Moor to Thorpe. Mostly under M25 4. Existing railway to Reading via Wokingham 5. New surface and elevated railway Thorpe to Skew Bridge 6. Existing railway through Chertsey and Addlestone, lowered in cutting to eliminate two grade crossings 7. Existing grade-separated Byfleet Junction with South West Main Line 8. Existing 4 track railway (South West Main Line) to Woking (spare capacity as most inners branch off before Weybridge) 23 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

30 An express shuttle to St Pancras, via HS1, and enhanced Cross Country Services via Cambridge, complete the Stansted rail portfolio 2013 Andrew Smithers Project Mapping Crossrail 4c 20/1/13 Leicester Melton Mowbray CROSS Oakham COUNTRY Peterborough Stamford March Lowestoft Hinckley Ely Wolverhampton Ipswich Nuneaton Cambridge Felixstowe Birmingham Coventry Audley End Harwich Worcester Each hour: Cheltenham Gloucester trains through Crossrail Bristol hundreds of other 8 Overground Bristol trains to through Crossrail Westbury 2 Stratford 4 Express trains direct to St Pancras via HS1 12 Regional Express to Docklands, and Central London, with easy interchange to stations local stations in East London, and in future 4 Cross Country trains via Cambridge, to Birmingham and Salisbury perhaps Norwich Swindon Banbury Reading Basingstoke HIGH SPEED TWO Oxford Rugby Wokingham Northampton Marlow Henley Maidenhead Windsor & Eaton Alton Aylesbury Bracknell Farnborough Milton Keynes Slough Greenford 123 Heathrow 5 Staines Ascot Watford Ealing Broadway 4 Bedford Woking Guildford Luton Airport Old Oak Welwyn Garden City St Albans Harrow & Wealdstone Kings X St Pancras Stevenage Edmonton Green Seven Sisters Hackney Downs King s Cross St Pancras Liverpool Street Euston Paddington Farringdon Whitechapel London Bridge East Croydon Caterham Gatwick Airport Enfield Hertford EAST Broxbourne Tottenham Hale Stratford Canary Wharf ExCEL Bellingham Bishops Stortford LONDON OVERGROUND Brimsdown Chingford Stansted Airport Shenfield Romford Abbey Wood Upminster Sevenoaks Tonbridge Braintree Ebbsfleet Sudbury HIGH SPEED ONE Maidstone East Tunbridge Wells Gillingham Colchester Southminster Southend Sheerness Ashford Canterbury Walton-on-the-Naze Clacton-on-Sea Crossrail+ Thameslink Stansted - Birmingham East London Overground Step free connections High Speed Possible Crossrail 2 Ramsgate Dover Selected stations only shown East Grinstead Southampton Horsham Hastings Continental Europe Uckfield Lewes Dorchester Bournemouth Portsmouth Bognor Regis Littlehampton Brighton Seaford Eastbourne 24 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

31 With Crossrail 2, Stansted can grow to 160 million ppa 2013 Andrew Smithers Project Mapping Crossrail 4c 20/1/13 Leicester Melton Mowbray CROSS Oakham COUNTRY Peterborough Stamford March Lowestoft Hinckley Ely Wolverhampton Ipswich Nuneaton Cambridge Felixstowe Birmingham Coventry Audley End Harwich Worcester Stratford 70 stations with direct rail services to Stansted Cheltenham 40 stations with direct Gloucester rail services to Heathrow 500+ stations with Bristol single step-free interchange, many Bristol same platform connections Westbury Luggage-friendly links from all major English cities to Heathrow, Salisbury Gatwick and Stansted Swindon Banbury Reading Basingstoke HIGH SPEED TWO Oxford Rugby Wokingham Northampton Marlow Henley Maidenhead Windsor & Eaton Alton Aylesbury Bracknell Farnborough Milton Keynes Slough Greenford 123 Heathrow 5 Staines Ascot Watford Ealing Broadway 4 Bedford Woking Guildford Luton Airport Old Oak Welwyn Garden City St Albans Harrow & Wealdstone Kings X St Pancras Stevenage Edmonton Green Seven Sisters Hackney Downs King s Cross St Pancras Liverpool Street Euston Paddington Farringdon Whitechapel London Bridge East Croydon Caterham Gatwick Airport Enfield Hertford EAST Broxbourne Brimsdown Tottenham Hale Stratford Canary Wharf ExCEL Bellingham Bishops Stortford LONDON OVERGROUND Chingford Stansted Airport Shenfield Romford Abbey Wood Upminster Sevenoaks Tonbridge Braintree Ebbsfleet Sudbury HIGH SPEED ONE Maidstone East Tunbridge Wells Gillingham Colchester Southminster Southend Sheerness Ashford Canterbury Walton-on-the-Naze Clacton-on-Sea Crossrail+ Thameslink Stansted - Birmingham East London Overground Step free connections High Speed Possible Crossrail 2 Ramsgate Dover Selected stations only shown Southampton Horsham Uckfield All parts of southeast England will have good rail Lewes links to Brighton Stansted Dorchester (and also to Heathrow, HS1 Littlehamptonand HS2) Portsmouth Bognor Regis Eastbourne Bournemouth Seaford East Grinstead Hastings Continental Europe 25 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

32 Crossrail+ Faster Trips With Fewer Changes Station Pair Current journey time Crossrail+ journey time Saving Stansted - Heathrow 110 minutes 2 changes 60 minutes direct 50 minutes 2 changes Stansted - Farringdon 65 minutes 1 change 35 minutes direct 30 minutes 1 change Stansted - ExCEL 90 minutes 3 changes 20 minutes direct 70 minutes 3 changes Basingstoke Stansted Milton Keynes Heathrow 140 minutes 3 changes 120 minutes with 1 change (same platform) 110 minutes 2 changes 80 minutes with 1 change (same platform) 20 minutes 2 changes 30 minutes 1 change Woking Heathrow 40 minutes (bus) 15 minutes direct 25 minutes 26 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

33 THE STANSTED SOLUTION To Fix Heathrow, Extend Crossrail To Stansted 27 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved

34 Britain s Leading Rail Strategy Boutique Chris Stokes London and Southeast Strategy! Executive Director Railway Development, at the Strategic Rail Authority! Deputy Franchising Director Office of Passenger Rail Franchising; Sponsor, Thameslink project! Board Member Office of Rail Regulation! Deputy Director for Planning, Network Southeast; Sponsor, Manchester Airport Rail Link; Central London Rail Study John Self OBE Tube and Rail Operations! General Manager, Jubilee Line and East London Lines, London Underground Limited! Chief Executive, Rail Safety & Standards Board! Operations advisor to Crossrail project Michael Schabas Planning and Economics! Founder Director, GB Railfreight, Anglia Railways, Hull Trains! Advisor, Union Railways, developed case for HS1 into St Pancras! Crossrail review (1994), London Airports Surface Access Study for DfT, developed case for southwest link to Woking! VP Transport for Canary Wharf developed case for Jubilee Line Extension Peter Wilkinson UK Rail Industry Structure! Franchise Director, Department for Transport! Advisor, Network Rail Strategy! Advisor, Brown Review of Rail Franchising 28 Sustainable Stansted FIRST CLASS PARTNERSHIPS LIMITED All rights reserved $