Watershed Runoff Analysis
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- Janis Alexander
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1 CREATING SOLUTIONS FOR A CHANGING WORLD Watershed Runoff Analysis April 18, 2017 John Melack, UCSB Ed Beighley & Dongmei Feng, Northeastern University
2 Study Workflow Civil and Environmental Engineering Daily P&T (>100 km grid) 10 GCM s RCP 4.5&8.5 Measurements Daily P&T (6 km grid) Gauge-Based Daily Q USGS Land Cover Soil Properties Topography Downscaled Climatology Daily P&T (6 km grid) 10 GCM s RCP 4.5&8.5 Calibrated Hydro-Model Hillslope River Routing (HRR) Hydro-Model Parameter Calibration Land Cove-Based Parameter Transfer Functions Regional Hydro-Model Simulated Streamflow Historical Q GCM s Future Q GCM s RCP 4.5&8.5 Projected Q GCM s RCP 4.5&8.5
3 Study Region ID USGS No. Station name Start Date End Date Area (km 2 ) G Carpinteria Creek 1941/1/1/ current 33.9 G Mission Creek, Rocky Nook 10/28/1983 current 17.1 G Mission Creek, Mission St. 10/1/1970 current 21.7 G Maria Ygnacio Creek 10/1/1970 current 14.3 G Atascadero Creek 1941/1/1/ current 49.0 G Arroyo Burro Creek 10/1/1970 9/30/ G San Jose Creek 10/1/1970 9/30/ G Gaviota Creek 10/1/1966 9/30/
4 Focus Drainage Systems Civil and Environmental Engineering Area Landcover distribution (%) ID Name (km 2 ) Developed Forest Shrubland Herbaceous Planted W1 Devereux Slough W2 Goleta Slough* W3 Arroyo Burro W4 Mission W5 Santa Monica/Franklin W6 Carpinteria * Goleta Slough includes: Atascadero, Los Canaros, Maria Ygnacio, San Jose, San Pedro, and Tecolotito Creeks
5 Hydro-Model calibrated based on gauge-based Precip & Temp Results at USGS stream gauge locations
6 Hydro-Model calibrated based on gauge-based Precip & Temp Results at USGS stream gauge locations ID USGS No. Bias (%) E p (%) RM G G G G G
7 Future Climate Impacts on Streamflow Hydrologic model calibrated at gauge locations Model parameters transferred to un-gauged watersheds Simulated streamflow based downscaled GCM precipitation and temperature for all coastal watersheds From Climate Study no change in annual precipitation From Watershed Study?
8 Median change (%) in annual runoff (Qm) for RCP 4.5 & 8.5 Drainage System ID Devereux Slough Goleta Slough* Arroyo Burro Mission Santa Monica/Franklin Carpinteria Coast wc Changes shaded gray for RCP 8.5 Change in annual runoff (Qm) RCP4.5 Max Median of upper half, Q3 Median for all values (5 above - 5 below) Median of lower half, Q1 Min Statistics based on changes resulting from 10 GCMs
9 Median change (%) in annual peak discharge (Qp) for RCP 4.5 & 8.5 Drainage System ID Devereux Slough Goleta Slough* Arroyo Burro Mission Santa Monica/Franklin Carpinteria Coast wc Changes shaded gray for RCP 8.5 Change in annual peak flow (Qp) RCP4.5 Max Median of upper half, Q3 Median for all values (5 above - 5 below) Median of lower half, Q1 Min Statistics based on changes resulting from 10 GCMs
10 Median change (%) in 100-yr flood discharge for RCP 4.5 & 8.5 Drainage System Name RCP 4.5 RCP ID P Q m Q p P Q m Q p Devereux Slough W Goleta Slough* W Arroyo Burro W Mission W Santa Monica/Franklin W Carpinteria W Coast Change in Q 100-yr RCP4.5 Max Median of upper half, Q3 Median for all values (5 above 5 below) Median of lower half, Q1 Min Statistics based on changes resulting from 10 GCMs
11 Future Climate Impacts on Streamflow From Climate Study No change in annual precipitation From Watershed Study Increases in streamflow WHY?
12 Median change (%) in rainy season duration for RCP 4.5 & 8.5 Drainage System Name ID P Start Q m End Q p Duration P Start Q m QEnd p Duration Devereux Slough W Goleta Slough* W Arroyo Burro W Mission W Santa Monica/Franklin W Carpinteria W Coast Coast Change in annual rainy season duration RCP4.5 Max Changes shaded gray for RCP 8.5 Median of upper half, Q3 Median for all values (5 above 5 below) Median of lower half, Q1 Min Statistics based on changes resulting from 10 GCMs
13 Median change (%) in rainfall event characteristics for RCP (%) (%) Drainage System Name P < Q >45 All < >45 All m Q p P Q m Q p ID mm/d mm/d mm/d events mm/d mm/d mm/d events Devereux Slough W Goleta Slough* W Arroyo Burro W Mission W Santa Monica/Franklin W Carpinteria W Coast Coast Change in number rain events >45 mm/d RCP4.5 Max Median of upper half, Q3 Median for all values (5 above 5 below) Median of lower half, Q1 Min Statistics based on changes resulting from 10 GCMs
14 Summary Changes based on GCM derived values for or relative to GCM derived values for Median value from model ensembles used for assessment Precipitation relatively unchanged (-3 to +3%) Duration of rainy season decreases (7 to 15%) Number of large rainfall events increases (4 to 77%) Runoff increase (5 to 43%) Peak annual streamflow increase (10 to 44%) Potential large changes in 100-yr flood flow (-22 to 120%) Emission scenarios result in similar changes with higher emissions (RCP 8.5) generally resulting in larger changes
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