Prairie Drought: Precedents and Prospects

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Prairie Drought: Precedents and Prospects"

Phebe Wiggins
5 years ago
Views:

Regina Managing Climate and Weather Risks for Peace River

1 Prairie Drought: Precedents and Prospects Dave Sauchyn Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina Managing Climate and Weather Risks for Peace River District Agriculture, Grande Prairie, Alberta, February 7, 2007

Prairie Drainage Basins Non-contributing drainage area (percent of total basin area) for prairie drainage basins -median annual runoffseal River Peace River 1 0 3 Churchill River

Assiniboine River Winnipeg Missouri River 1 Winnipeg River Washington 30 Red River Montana Idaho North Dakota Michigan Helena Minnesota Bismarck Oregon Wisconsin South Dakota

2 Prairie Drainage Basins Non-contributing drainage area (percent of total basin area) for prairie drainage basins -median annual runoffseal River Peace River Churchill River Athabasca River 0 1 Nelson River Hayes River 0 Alberta Edmonton Manitoba British Columbia Saskatchewan 40 Saskatchewan River 10 Saskatoon Lake Winnipeg Calgary Regina 27 Ontario 62 Assiniboine River Winnipeg Missouri River 1 Winnipeg River Washington 30 Red River Montana Idaho North Dakota Michigan Helena Minnesota Bismarck Oregon Wisconsin South Dakota Wyoming Minneapolis Saint Paul Boise Source: Non-contributing area - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.F.R.A. Elevation data - Environmental Systems Research Institute Kilometers 200

6 Beaverlodge, Precipitation departures (mm), annual summer

7 80 Wapiti River, near Grande Prairie, Departures from Mean Flow (m3 sec-1)

10 Tree-Ring Sampling Sites

12 JJA PDSI < 0, Calgary, r = TRI (-ve departures), WCH,

13 Spring 1796, Edmonton House At Edmonton House, a large fire burned all around us on April 27 th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7 th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water. Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post for want of water in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, there being no water in the river. (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)

14 Spring 1796, Edmonton House At Edmonton House, a large fire burned all around us on April 27 th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7 th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water. Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post for want of water in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, there being no water in the river. (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)

15 4 PDSI, Calgary,

16 Wavelet power spectra

17 Wavelet power spectrum

18 Table of Contents Volume 31, Number 4, Winter, 2006 Paleoenvironmental Perspectives on Drought in Western Canada: Introduction Scott St. George and David Sauchyn Long Hydroclimate Records from Tree-Rings in Western Canada: Potential, Problems and Prospects Emma Watson and Brian H. Luckman Tree-Ring Inferences on Water-Level Fluctuations of Lake Athabasca - David M. Meko Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Streamflow in the Churchill River Basin, Northern Saskatchewan Antoine L. Beriault and David J. Sauchyn A Comparison of and Drought Patterns, Canadian Prairies W.F. Rannie Forest Fire-Conducive Drought Variability in the Southern Canadian Boreal Forest and Associated Climatology Inferred from Tree Rings Martin P. Girardin, Jacques C. Tardif, Mike D. Flannigan and Yves Bergeron Drought, Tree Rings and Water Resource Management in Colorado C.A. Woodhouse and J.J. Lukas

19 Change in temperature (C) from baseline ( ) 2050s

20 2006 Temperatures: Departures from Normal ( )

21 Mean Spring (MAM) Temperature, Grande Prairie,

22 temp C Grande Prairie CGCM3_ CSIRO_MK3 1.3 ppt ratio ECHAM5_OM GFDL_cm2.0 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 A1B A2 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1

23 Climate Scenarios from CGCM3 Grande Prairie, Alberta - Mean Precipitation mm A1B_1 A2_1 B1_ Janurary February March April May June July August September October November December

24 Climate Scenarios from CGCM3 Grande Prairie, Alberta - Mean Temperature oc A1B_1 A2_1 B1_ Janurary February March April May June July August September October November December

25 Closed-basin prairie lakes Water level changes, (van der Kamp et al.) 12 Whitewater Lake (MB) 10 8 Dry Big Quill Lake (SK) Relative Levels ( m ) Manito Lake (SK) Redberry Lake (SK) Upper Mann Lake (AB) Spring Lake (AB) Years Dry Little Fish Lake (AB)

26 Declining Mean and Minimum Streamflow Demuth and Pietroniro 2001

27 Snow depth standardised anomaly 1 values are 5-year centred averages Eastern slopes/western Prairie snow depth in March Peyto Glacier winter balance Winter balance departure (m w.e. a ) Demuth and Pietroniro, 2001

28 Growing Degree Days > 5 0 C Barrow and Yu, s

29 Annual Moisture Index - GDD/Annual Precip Barrow and Yu, s

30 Increasing Drought Frequency Central North America Return Period (years) Today ~2070 Length of Dry Spell (days) Kharin and Zwiers, 2000

31 THANKS

TRANSAT TUESDAY. Ontario departures Riviera Maya, Mexico. Catalonia Playa Maroma 4H. Garden View Room. Toronto Jan 15, 22 $ 1599 Was $ 1909

TRANSAT TUESDAY. Ontario departures Riviera Maya, Mexico. Catalonia Playa Maroma 4H. Garden View Room. Toronto Jan 15, 22 $ 1599 Was $ 1909 Ontario departures Riviera Maya, Mexico Toronto Jan 15, 22 1599 Was 1909 Flights are from Toronto via Air Transat in Economy Class. Prices valid for 48 hours, no exceptions. Prices include applicable taxes