Snow, Glacier and GLOF

Transcription

1 Snow, Glacier and GLOF & Report on Demonstration River Basin Activities Upper Indus Basin The 5th International Coordination Group (ICG) Meeting GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) Tokyo, Japan, 15-18, December 2009

2 HINDU KUSH KARAKARM China U Afghanistan I HIMALYAS B Iran Pakistan India Nepal Country/Regio n Indus Basin International Areas Area (sq. km) Area (%) China 92, India 67,340 7 Kashmir 179, Afghanistan Pakistan 529, to 90% of the UIB becomes snowcovered during most of winter season In UIB, seasonally snow covered areas are typically between 1500 m and 5000 m Snowline retreats to elevation about m during July and August Snowmelt contributes about 60% of 2 streamflows IB: Indus Basin UIB: Upper Indus Basin

3 Sub-basins in Upper Indus PHYSIOGRAPHY Northern areas spread over 72,496 sq. Km. with high snow-clad peaks varying from m (masl) Among the Earth s 14 over 8000 masl peaks, 4 are at the head of Baltoro glacier in the Karakoram Range in Shigar Basin: 1. K-2: 8,611 masl 2. Gasherbrum-I: 8,068 masl 3. Broad Peak: 8,047 masl 4. Gasherbrum II: 8,035 masl 3

4 Upper Indus Basins Glaciers: 5,218 Covered Area: 15,040 Sq. km Total ice reserves: 2,738.5km 3 Shyok, Shigar and Hunza Basins contain 83% of total ice reserves Glacial lakes: Total Glacial Lakes: 2,420 Covered Area: 126 Sq. km Potentially dangerous lakes: 52 4

5 Some Longest Glaciers Upper Indus has some of the longest glaciers outside Polar Region like Siachen (76 km) Hispar (61 km) Biafo (60 km) Baltoro (60 km) Batura (64 km) Yenguta (35 km) Chiantar (34 km) Trich (29 km) Atrak (28 km) 5

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7 Glaciers of Upper Indus Basins otal number 5,218 Source: WRRI, NARC (2005) Inventory of glaciers 7

8 Basins Basin Area (Km 2 ) Summary of glacier inventory Glaciated area (Km 2 ) No. of Glaciers Total Length (Km) Ice Reserves (Km 3 ) Swat Chitral Gilgit Hunza Shigar Shyok Indus Shingo Astor Jhelum Total

9 Glaciers Lakes of Upper Indus Basins 9

10 Types of glacial lakes Basins Blocked Cirque End Moraine Lateral Moraine Erosion Supraglacial Valley Total Swat Chitral Gilgit Hunza Shigar Shyok Indus Shingo Astor Jhelum Total

11 Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes 11

12 Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes Basins Cirque End Moraine Valley Total Swat Chitral Gilgit Hunza Shigar Shyok Indus Shingo Astor Jhelum Total

13 SUMMARY Summary Total number of Glaciers 5,218 Total glaciated area Km 2 Est. Ice Reserves.. 2,738 Km 3 Glacial Lakes... 2,420 Major Lakes... 1,328 Potentially Dangerous Lakes... 52

14 Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods 60 historical damburst events have been reported. It gives an average recurrence frequency of about one event every 3 years and for ice-dam failures, with floods exceeding 20,000 cumecs (9 events in 100 yr), the apparent frequency is one event every 11 years; for floods exceeding 11,000 cumecs (17 events in 100 yr) the apparent frequency is one event every 6 years (POE, 1988). The majority of the recorded damburst flood events during the last 200 years have been glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). A few events have resulted from the failure of landslide dams of which the most well known are those of June 1841 and August Much smaller landslide dam failures took place on the Gilgit river in 1911, and in Hunza valley in In recent years there have also been some minor flood events due to the sudden drainage of supra glacial lakes Damburst events were relatively common during the period from 1833 to

15 Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods The critical events occurred in June 1841, August 1858 (Landslide) and GLOF of August 1929, when the massive flood waves resulted in significant rise in water level 15

16 PROGRESS OF THE 1929 SHYOK OUTBURST FLOOD 16

17 MAJOR DAM BREAK FLOODS RECORDED IN THE INDUS AT ATTOCK 17

18 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON GLACIER ENVIRONMENT WESTERN HIMALAYA CASE 18

19 Temporal Behavior of Glaciers Study Area Study Area 19

20 Location of selected Glaciers and Lakes Astor basin Lake_5 Lake_4 Gr_5 Gr_4 Gr_3 Lake_3 Lake_2 Lake_1 Gr_2 Jhelum basin Gr_1 Folvi glacier SPOT XS image (1 st Sep. 2005) 20

21 Variations in Glaciers Area (ha) Glacier id Change Change % Rate ha/y Gr Gr Gr Gr Gr Total Av

22 Landsat-7 ETM+ 30th Sept Landsat-5 TM in 14th July, SPOT- 4 XS 1st Sept.,

23 Temporal behavior of Glaciers and Glacial lakes ( ) 23

24 KARAKORAM GLACIERS 24

25 Gulmit Momhil Mulungutti Gharesa Bualtar

26 Karakoram Glaciers Area (sq.km) Glacier Mulungutti Bualtar Gulmit Momhil Gharesa

27 Demonstration River Basin in PAKISTAN Gilgit River Basin at Alam bridge (Gilgit & Hunza) 27

28 UIB: Upper Indus Basin

29 Study Area: Gilgit Basin Monthly runoff and precipitation comparison Inter-station and seasonal precipitation variability Area(%) >6000 m 4.1 >5000 m 29.8 >4000 m 66.8 >3000 m 84.5 >2000 m B(3719) Gilgit basin area km C(2405) D(2156) 120 Annual precipitation = 300 mm E(1460) F(1372) 100 Annual runoff = 800 mm G(1251) 80 Two main tributaries, Gilgit and Hunza 60 Hunza River at Daniyor km Gilgit River at Gilgit km 2 Monthly Precipitation (mm) A(3895) 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

30 Landuse Map Gilgit River Basin 30

31 Slope Map of Gilgit River Basin 31

32 Observation Information Status of Gilgit River Basin SURFACE Number HYDROLOGICAL Number Air Temperature 14 Streamflow 3 Humidity 14 Reservoir (Water level, Outflow) Wind 14 Groundwater Table Pressure 5 Evapolation 3 Precipitation 14 Soil Temperature Snow Depth 5 Soil Moisture Skin Temperature Atmosphere Number Upward Shortwave Radiation 5 Planetary Boundary Layer Tower Downward Shortwave Radiation 5 Pilot Baloon Upward Longwave Radiation Radiosonde Downward Longwave Radiation Radar 1 Net Radiation Water Quality Number Sensible Heat Flux Groundwater quality indicators 1 Latent Heat Flux Surface water quality indicators 3 Ground Heat Flux Others Number CO2 Flux 32

33 Results: Snowcover 1997 Snowcover on January 01, 1997 Snowcover on February 11, 1997 Snowcover on February 21, 1997 Snowcover on March 01, 1997

34 Snowcover on April 11, 1997 Snowcover on May 21, 1997 Snowcover on June 01, 1997 Snowcover on July 10, 1997 Snowcover on August 21, 1997 Snowcover on November 21, 1997

35 Aug_98 Sep_98 Discharge Results: Gilgit River at Alam GBHM RDSRM GBHM = Meteorological data based distributed hydrological model RDSRM = Remote sensing based distributed snowmelt runoff model 35 May_98 Apr_98 Mar_98 Sep_98 Aug_98 Jul_98 Jun_98 Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation(mm) Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation Observed GBHM May_98 Apr_98 Mar_98 Jun_98 Jul_ May_00 Apr_00 Mar_00 Sep_00 Aug_00 July_00 Jun_00 Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation(mm) Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation Observed GBHM Precipitation(mm) Precipitation Observed RDSRM Precipitation(mm) Aug_00 Sep_00 Precipitation Observed RDSRM May_00 Apr_00 Mar_00 Jun_00 July_00

36 Discharge Results: Gilgit River at Alam GBHM SRM GBHM = Meteorological data based distributed hydrological model RDSRM = Remote sensing based distributed snowmelt runoff model 36 May_98 May_98 Apr_98 Apr_98 Mar_98 Mar_98 Sep_98 Sep_98 Aug_98 Aug_98 Jul_98 Jul_98 Jun_98 Jun_98 Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation(mm) Precipitation Observed Observed SRM GBHM Precipitation 2000 Observed Precipitation Observed SRM GBHM May_00 Apr_00 Mar_00 Aug_00 July_00 Jun_00 Sep_00 Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation(mm)

37 Glacier study Hunza Basin Basin Area (Km 2 ): Glaciated area (Km 2 ): No. of Glaciers:

38 Glacier study Hunza Basin Glacier Lakes Potentially Dangerous Glacier Lakes Basin Area (Km 2 ): No. of Lakes: 110 Basin Area (Km 2 ): No. of Lakes: 1 38

39 Glacier study Gilgit Basin Basin Area (Km 2 ): Glaciated area (Km 2 ): No. of Glaciers:

40 Glacier study Gilgit Basin Glacier Lakes Potentially Dangerous Glacier Lakes Basin Area (Km 2 ): No. of Lakes: 608 Basin Area (Km 2 ): No. of Lakes: 8 40

41 Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods 16 disastrous GLOF events have occurred in Hunza valley ( ) damaging life and property 05 GLOF events in less than one year ( ) in Gojal Teshil, Huza River Basin Two smaller landslide dam failures are reported, one on Gilgit in 1911 and the other in Hunza valley in

42 Hazardous GLOF Events in Hunza Valley ( ) 42

43 Institute working on Snow, Glacier and GLOF Recently Regional UNDP project on GLOF forecasting and preparedness FOCUS a NGO is working community preparedness for GLOF Pakistan Meteorological Department (various Aspects) Global Change Impact Study Center (GCISC), (various Aspects) Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, (various Aspects) Academia 43

44 Thank you 44