SOME ECONOMIC FORECASTS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ALCUNE PREVISIONI ECONOMICHE: UN ANALISI COMPARATIVA
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1 SOME ECONOMIC FORECASTS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ALCUNE PREVISIONI ECONOMICHE: UN ANALISI COMPARATIVA This document has been expressly prepared for The European House-Ambrosetti Forum Intelligence on the World, Europe, and Italy, Villa d'este - Cernobbio - September 2, 3 and 4,. Il presente documento è stato preparato espressamente per il Forum Lo Scenario di oggi e di domani per le strategie competitive, in programma a Villa d Este - Cernobbio - 2, 3 e 4 settembre. Copyright The European House-Ambrosetti S.p.A. -
2 METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES This document has been prepared by The European House- Ambrosetti specifically for the Forum Intelligence on the World, Europe, and Italy, held at Villa d Este - Cernobbio, on September 2, 3 and 4,. The intention is to provide participants with a broad but concise overview of the global macroeconomic scenario. The document collects the forecasts made by leading banks, investment banks and international institutions on the macroeconomic prospects of the main developed and emerging economies. The first few charts present the average values for each indicator with the intention of offering a global forecast. Instead, the remainder of the charts contain a detailed breakdown of each organization s forecast. The European House-Ambrosetti assumes no responsibility for the individual forecasts. Special thanks to the organizations that shared their research with The European House-Ambrosetti, and to all those who contributed to the preparation of this document. The European House-Ambrosetti ha preparato questo documento espressamente per il Forum Lo Scenario di oggi e di domani per le strategie competitive, in programma a Villa d Este Cernobbio - 2, 3 e 4 settembre. Il fine è quello di offrire ai partecipanti ai lavori una visione d insieme sintetica sulla congiuntura macroeconomica mondiale. Il presente documento raccoglie le previsioni macroeconomiche dei principali Istituti di Credito, Banche d Affari e Istituzioni Internazionali per le principali economie industrializzate ed emergenti. Le prime tavole indicano la media delle stime per ciascun indicatore, con l intenzione di offrire delle previsioni globali ; nelle tavole successive sono presentate le stime divise per singolo istituto, in merito alle quali The European House-Ambrosetti declina ogni responsabilità. Si ringraziano le organizzazioni che hanno condiviso le proprie ricerche con The European House-Ambrosetti e tutti coloro che hanno favorito la realizzazione di questo documento. BNP Paribas Economic & Market Monitor, July - August Commerzbank Week in Focus, July-August Economic and Market Monitor, July - August Economic and Market Monitor, August - September, European Economic Forecast, Spring Goldman Sachs Intesa Sanpaolo Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley Global Economics Weekly, July - August Global Economics Analyst, Third Quarter The Global FX Monthly Analyst, July World Economic Outlook Database, April World Economic Outlook Update, June World Economic Outlook Update, Draft August 29 th La bussola dell economia italiana, June Scenario Macroeconomico, June Weekly Economic Monitor, July Russia Focus Economia, May Brasile Focus Economia, July Global Economic Forecasts, August Emerging EMEA Ahead LatAm Economics Weekly, July Global Economic Weekly, August India Weekly Rumblings, August Global Economic Ahead Global Economics, August US Economics, August FX Pulse, August The Global Monetary Analyst, July Japan Economics, July Economic Outlook 89, May UBS Investment Bank Forecast Database, August UniCredit Group Global Economics & FI/FX Research, Friday Notes, August CEE Quarterly 3Q, July Euro Compass 3Q, July 1
3 best / worst Italy Germany France Spain United Kingdom EUROZONE USA Japan China Brazil Russia India GDP FORECAST TABLE (Averages) 1/2 Private Consumption Investments Imports Exports China India Russia Brazil Germany USA France EUROZONE United Kingdom NB. Forecasts for Italy do not necessarily include the effects of the austerity measures announced by the Italian government in mid-august Italy Spain Japan Real GDP growth yoy (%)
4 best / worst Italy Germany France Spain United Kingdom EUROZONE USA Japan China Brazil Russia India Unemployment Rate FORECAST TABLE (Averages) 2/2 Consumer Prices Budget Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (% of GDP) NB. Forecasts for Italy do not necessarily include the effects of the austerity measures announced by the Italian government in mid-august Budget Balance (% GDP) China Russia Germany Brazil Italy EUROZONE France Spain India United Kingdom Japan USA 3
5 INTEREST RATES FORECASTS (Averages) December March September EUROZONE UK USA Japan 3 months years months years months years months years month Euribor, GBP Libor, USD Libor, GPY Libor year Bund, Gilt, T-Notes, JGB 0.00 December March September 1.00 December March September EUROZONE UK USA Japan EUROZONE UK USA Japan 4
6 SPOT EXCHANGE RATES FORECASTS (Averages) December March September Euro/USD (in US Dollars) Euro/Yen (in Japanese Yen) Euro/GBP (in British Pounds) Euro/CHF (in Swiss Francs) USD/Yen (in Japanese Yen) GBP/USD (in US Dollars) Euro/USD (in US Dollars) Euro/Yen (in Japanese Yen) Euro/GBP (in British Pounds) Euro/CHF (in Swiss Francs) December March September 110 December March September 0.84 December March September 1.12 December March September 5
7 FORECAST TABLE 1/10 Italy Germany France Spain United Kingdom EUROZONE GDP Private Consumption Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average NB. Forecasts for Italy do not necessarily include the effects of the austerity measures announced by the Italian government in mid-august 6
8 FORECAST TABLE 2/10 Italy Germany France Spain United Kingdom EUROZONE Investments Imports Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average NB. Forecasts for Italy do not necessarily include the effects of the austerity measures announced by the Italian government in mid-august 7
9 FORECAST TABLE 3/10 Italy Germany France Spain United Kingdom EUROZONE Exports Unemployment Rate Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average NB. Forecasts for Italy do not necessarily include the effects of the austerity measures announced by the Italian government in mid-august 8
10 FORECAST TABLE 4/10 Italy Germany France Spain United Kingdom EUROZONE Consumer Prices Budget Balance (% of GDP) Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average NB. Forecasts for Italy do not necessarily include the effects of the austerity measures announced by the Italian government in mid-august 9
11 FORECAST TABLE 5/10 Italy Germany France Spain United Kingdom EUROZONE Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average NB. Forecasts for Italy do not necessarily include the effects of the austerity measures announced by the Italian government in mid-august 10
12 FORECAST TABLE 6/10 USA Japan China Brazil Russia India GDP Private Consumption Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
13 FORECAST TABLE 7/10 USA Japan China Brazil Russia India Investments Imports Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
14 FORECAST TABLE 8/10 USA Japan China Brazil Russia India Exports Unemployment Rate Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley ,2 Commerzbank Average
15 FORECAST TABLE 9/10 USA Japan China Brazil Russia India Consumer Prices Budget Balance (% of GDP) Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB ,2* 0,3* BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
16 FORECAST TABLE 10/10 USA Japan China Brazil Russia India Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
17 INTEREST RATES FORECASTS 1/4 December March September EUROZONE 3 months 10 years Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
18 INTEREST RATES FORECASTS 2/4 December March September UK 3 months 10 years Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
19 INTEREST RATES FORECASTS 3/4 December March September USA 3 months 10 years Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
20 INTEREST RATES FORECASTS 4/4 December March September Japan 3 months 10 years Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
21 SPOT EXCHANGE RATES FORECASTS 1/3 December March September Euro/USD (in US Dollars) GB Pound/USD (in US Dollars) Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
22 SPOT EXCHANGE RATES FORECASTS 2/3 December March September USD/Yen (in Japanese Yen) Euro/Yen (in Japanese Yen) Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
23 SPOT EXCHANGE RATES FORECASTS 3/3 December March September Euro/GB Pound (in British Pounds) Euro/CHF (in Swiss Francs) Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average Intesa Sanpaolo Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch UBS IB BNP Paribas UniCredit Group Morgan Stanley Commerzbank Average
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