Premier Vision. April 2017

Transcription

1 Premier Vision April 2017

2 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Feature: 2017 Evidences a Resurgence in Tourism to Italy 07 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 08 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 10 Currency Trends 12 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 14 France 15 United Kingdom 16 Italy 17 Spain 18 Germany 19 Singapore 20 Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 02

3 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary April % Total Sales +15% Total Vouchers +2% Total ATV +13% Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals FRA +7% -3% +11% +19% CHN +37% +24% +10% +2% GBR +36% +33% +3% +18% RUS +23% +9% +14% +19% ITA +31% +33% -1% +13% +16% +44% -19% +23% ESP +18% +8% +10% +27% HKG +32% +22% +9% +28% DEU -1% -1% +0% -9% TWN +12% +13% -0% +0% Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 03

4 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary Year to Date +20% Total Sales +15% Total Vouchers +5% Total ATV +12% Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals FRA +19% +2% +16% +15% CHN +31% +23% +7% +14% GBR +34% +29% +4% +13% RUS +12% +40% -20% +15% ITA +27% +29% -2% +9% +28% +16% +11% +11% ESP +20% +10% +9% +19% HKG +64% +29% +27% +19% DEU +5% +1% +4% +2% TWN +53% +42% +8% +4% Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 04

5 Tax Free Sales: Overview & Source Market Trends April 2017 Overview Tax Free Shopping sales continued to see strong gains in April, albeit at a marginally lower pace than seen since the start of 2017, with sales of growth 17% comparing to the 20% increase in sales seen throughout the first quarter of Whilst the transaction growth of 15% was comparable to rates of growth seen in Q1 of 2017, the 2% increase in Average Transaction Values was modestly lower than the 6% growth in the first quarter. On year to date basis, sales have increased by 20%, and with the exception of Germany, the most prominent European destinations have all experienced doubledigit gains. Italy has continued to see a strong rebound in 2017, with 27% growth on a year to date basis: see featured article on page 7 for more details. Chinese tourist spend evidences highest rate of growth in Europe since July 2015 Growth in spend of 37% by Chinese tourists in April, not only surpassed the rates of growth seen in the first quarter of 2017, but also represented the highest gains seen since Jul-15. The inhibiting factors that affected Chinese tourism to European destinations in 2016, such as biometrics and safety concerns, have to a degree dissipated in 2017 and since unleashed a new wave of tourism and spending by these tourists. With the exception of Germany, the main European destinations continued their resurgence, with alternative destinations continuing to gain popularity, with gains of 60% in April. Whilst a proportion of tourists will likely have diverted travel intentions amid hostilities with South Korea, a recent report by BNP Paribas highlights the price differential of luxury goods, serving as a reminder as to why Bain & Co. once labelled Europe, the world s largest in-season outlet. The report highlights that luxury goods in China cost about 21% more than the global average, whilst in France and Italy they cost about 22% less, predominantly due to Chinese taxes and duties, foreign exchange rates, and distribution costs for brands in China. June arrival numbers for end of Ramadan to provide early summer boost for retailers The timing of the end of Ramadan celebrations on 24th June this year, versus 5th July in 2016, is forecast to provide a significant boost to arrival numbers in June, with a 45% increase in tourists from the Gulf Co-Operation Council (GCC) nations. Relative to other tax free shopping nationalities, sales to these tourists have seen a relatively modest increase of 5% in the first four months of 2017, as despite the recovery in oil prices, the economies of these nations continue to adjust to cuts in expenditure, and investments to diversify the drivers of these economies away from the dependence on oil, resulting in relatively tepid economic growth. However, the summer of 2017 is set to evidence an early boost for the main European destination markets, with 70%+ gains predicted in tourists from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, whilst Qatari and Emirati tourists are predicted to see gains of 41% and 24%, respectively. All major European destinations are set to benefit from these increases, and as the most popular destination choices, France and the UK are predicted to see gains of 46% and 42%, respectively. Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 05

6 Tax Free Sales: Destination Market Trends April 2017 UK resilient post Westminster attack, France attack provides a moderate setback Following the Westminster attack in March, the UK defied the aversion for travel and tourism to terror hit destinations, where concerns for safety continue to be usurped by the price arbitrage opportunity presented by the devaluation of Sterling. This is further underscored by the predicted double-digit gains in arrival numbers expected in May and June, moderately tempered by projected gains of 9% in July Conversely, the attack on the Champs Elysees on 20th April, amid already heightened security ahead of the Presidential elections, provided a moderate setback to sales in France in April with growth of 7%, following the 20%+ gains seen in the first quarter of Russian tourism rebound gathers pace despite Average Transaction Value (ATV) declines Sales to Russian tourists experienced growth of 16% in April, despite a 44% increase in transactions in the month, with this rate of growth in transactions having now been sustained for the last three consecutive months. This distortion between sales and transaction growth was a result of a 20% decline in Average Transaction Values by these tourists, predominantly attributable to declines in France, but also seen across a number of destination markets, however the prominence of this destination is highlighted by the fact that excluding France, sales to Russian tourists saw growth of 36% in April. The first quarter of 2017 saw the Russian economy officially exit the recessionary period it had occupied for the previous two years, and whilst the economy is predicted to continue to recover, the rate of growth is expected to be modest. Nevertheless, coupled with the current rate of growth in Tax Free shopping transactions, continued expansion of the Russian economy will likely continue to increase the purchasing power of these tourists throughout Whilst the short term outlook for arrivals in May and June have been moderated to gains of 6% and 7%, respectively, this nevertheless points to a resilience in the continued recovery for travel and tourism to France, which will likely be further aided by both the ending and outcome of the Presidential elections, pointing to a period of relative stability. Furthermore, early indications suggest that whilst sales on the Champs-Elysees were immediately impacted, the following week saw a strong rebound. Premier Vision April 2017

7 Feature: 2017 Evidences a Resurgence in Tourism to Italy Following significant gains in arrival numbers in 2015, partly attributable to the Expo Milano, and therefore due to the inherently strong growth compares, arrivals to Italy in 2016 saw a modest decline. Consequently, whilst arrivals to Italy in 2017 have evidenced strong gains, Tax Free Shopping sales have seen a disproportionately higher increase in sales, with increasing numbers of Chinese and Russian tourists opting to travel to Italy, resulting in the 31% growth in sales in April 2017 representing the highest gains since Sep-15. YOY Growth for Main Cities (2017 YTD) ROME 28% MILAN 27% FLORENCE 23% VENICE 12% Sales Market share by City (2017 YTD) 45% 8% 12% 22% MILAN VENICE FLORENCE ROME The 16% increase in Chinese tourist arrivals to Italy in April 2017 was not only commensurate with a 57% increase in sales to these tourists, but also represented the highest rate of growth of these tourists among the main European destination markets in April. Furthermore, as one of the first destinations to witness a resurgence in Russian tourist spend in 2016, and with Italy representing the second most important destination for these tourists for Tax Free shopping, it has also benefitted from a 44% increase in sales to these tourists on a year to date basis. The current outlook suggests the rate of growth in Chinese tourist arrivals will be moderately lower from May through to July, however arrivals of Russian, American Taiwanese and Japanese arrivals are all predicted to experience double-digit gains. Top Source Markets CHN RUS TWN JPN KOR THA HKG IDN UAE Sales Market Share (2017 YTD) 29% 14% 7% 6% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% YOY Sales Growth (2017 YTD) 39% 44% 31% 21% 11% 35% -9% -10% 69% -1% Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 07

8 Sales Performance April 2017 By Destination By Source Market FRA 7.0% CHN 37.2% GBR 36.3% 23.2% ITA 31.4% RUS 16.1% ESP 18.3% HKG 32.4% SGP -1.1% THA 12.3% DEU -4.7% TWN 29.3% AUT 21.7% UAE 2.2% PRT 38.1% KOR 12.0% CZE 41.9% SAU 36.8% IRL 58.2% IDN 12.5% Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 08

9 Sales Performance Year to Date By Destination By Source Market FRA 18.7% CHN 31.0% GBR 34.3% RUS 12.3% ITA 26.6% 28.1% ESP 20.2% HKG 63.8% SGP -8.5% TWN 53.1% DEU 4.9% KOR 14.9% AUT 20.5% UAE 15.1% PRT 44.9% THA 15.1% CZE 38.2% IDN 21.8% IRL 34.4% KUW 12.5% Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 09

10 Top 5 Visitor Nations Per Destination Country April 2017 Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales FRANCE CHINA 32% 1,981 31% HONG KONG 9% 5,398 38% 8% 1,327 18% SOUTH KOREA 6% 725-4% RUSSIA 5% 1,363-18% SINGAPORE CHINA 29% 385 1% INDONESIA 17% % INDIA 14% 624 8% MALAYSIA 4% % PHILIPPINES 4% 274 5% UK CHINA 19% % UAE 8% % SAUDI ARABIA 8% % 7% % KUWAIT 7% 400 6% AUSTRIA CHINA 20% % SWITZERLAND 14% 453 4% RUSSIA 14% % THAILAND 9% % TAIWAN 9% % ITALY CHINA 30% 1,123 57% RUSSIA 11% % 8% 1,158 39% TAIWAN 6% 1,218 43% THAILAND 4% 1,331-25% CZECH REP. RUSSIA 36% % TAIWAN 16% % CHINA 15% % SOUTH KOREA 5% % 3% 549-4% SPAIN CHINA 25% % 8% % RUSSIA 6% % ARGENTINA 5% 252 5% UAE 4% 626 8% IRELAND CHINA 38% % 31% % UAE 4% % CANADA 3% 111 6% AUSTRALIA 3% % GERMANY CHINA 32% 601-3% RUSSIA 11% 556 4% THAILAND 9% 1,003 39% UAE 8% % TAIWAN 4% % PORTUGAL CHINA 30% 2,031 79% ANGOLA 24% % BRAZIL 21% % MOZAMBIQUE 3% % HONG KONG 3% 5,824 2,142% Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 10

11 Top 5 Visitor Nations Per Destination Country YTD Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales FRANCE CHINA 30% 1,789 29% HONG KONG 10% 5,582 89% 7% 1,304 21% RUSSIA 6% 1,566-3% SOUTH KOREA 5% 760-1% GERMANY CHINA 31% 599 0% RUSSIA 14% % THAILAND 6% 1,072 31% UAE 5% % TAIWAN 4% % UK CHINA 24% % KUWAIT 7% % 7% % UAE 6% % HONG KONG 4% % AUSTRIA RUSSIA 20% % CHINA 17% % SWITZERLAND 14% 418 4% TAIWAN 7% % UKRAINE 6% 581 4% ITALY CHINA 29% 1,701 39% RUSSIA 14% % 7% 1,158 31% TAIWAN 6% 1,191 21% JAPAN 3% % PORTUGAL CHINA 28% 1,673 21% BRAZIL 24% % ANGOLA 23% % RUSSIA 3% % HONG KONG 2% 3, % SPAIN CHINA 29% % 7% % RUSSIA 7% % ARGENTINA 4% % MOROCCO 3% 311-2% CZECH REP. RUSSIA 39% % CHINA 15% % TAIWAN 14% % SOUTH KOREA 4% % UKRAINE 4% % SINGAPORE CHINA 34% 438-4% INDONESIA 16% % INDIA 11% 611-5% VIETNAM 5% % MALAYSIA 3% % IRELAND CHINA 47% % 22% % AUSTRALIA 3% 171 5% CANADA 2% % MALAYSIA 2% % Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 11

12 Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 12

13 Arrivals Forecast In partnership with

14 Europe Overview Outlook The projected 9% increase in arrival numbers to the main European destinations between May and July 2017, continues to provide a cautiously optimistic outlook. Spain and the UK are predicted to continue to be the primary beneficiaries over the course of the next three months, with growth of 14% and 11%, respectively, followed closely by predicted gains of 9% to Italy. Forecasted arrivals to Germany indicate a degree of confidence returning to this destination, and whilst France is modestly impacted by the recent attack on the Champs Elysees, the conclusion and outcome of the Presidential election should serve to provide a degree of stability. The main European destination markets witnessed arrival gains across the majority of source markets in April, with tourists from Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia evidencing the most significant growth, both experiencing an increase of 28%, followed by impressive gains in American tourists of 23%. The increase in Saudi tourists in April was attributable to the timing of the mid-semester break versus the prior year. Opportunity Arrival numbers are predicted to increase by 11% in May, with all major source markets expected to provide double-digit gains, with the exception of the Gulf Co-Operation Council (GCC) members, with the onset of Ramadan from the 26th May and the tradition of fasting, suggesting an 18% decline during this period. However, the end of Ramadan on 24th June is predicted to result in a 45% increase in arrival numbers in June, with all destination markets forecast to experience a 40%+ increase. The timing of the end of Ramadan on 5th July in 2016 correlates to a 14% decline in GCC arrival numbers in July 2017, and accounting for this variation in the timing, over the course of June and July, arrival numbers from GCC nations are predicted to see a 2% increase. The BRIC nations are forecast to continue to provide significant opportunity over the course of the next three months, attributable to predicted gains of 21% and 30% in Russian and Brazilian tourists, respectively. American and Japanese tourists are also predicted to see strong gains, with a 17% increase in both nationalities. UK MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % FRANCE MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % GERMANY MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % ITALY MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % SPAIN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 14

15 3 Month Arrivals Outlook MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % BRAZIL MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % KUWAIT MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % UAE MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % INDIA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % AUSTRALIA FRANCE S. KOREA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % JAPAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % TAIWAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % THAILAND MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 15

16 3 Month Arrivals Outlook MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % BRAZIL MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % KUWAIT MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % UAE MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % INDIA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % AUSTRALIA S. KOREA JAPAN TAIWAN UK MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % THAILAND MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 16

17 3 Month Arrivals Outlook MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % BRAZIL MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % KUWAIT MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % UAE MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % INDIA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % AUSTRALIA ITALY S. KOREA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % JAPAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % TAIWAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % THAILAND MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 17

18 3 Month Arrivals Outlook MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % BRAZIL MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % KUWAIT MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % UAE MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % INDIA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % AUSTRALIA SPAIN S. KOREA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % JAPAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % TAIWAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % THAILAND MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 18

19 3 Month Arrivals Outlook MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % BRAZIL MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % KUWAIT MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % UAE MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % INDIA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % AUSTRALIA GERMANY S. KOREA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % JAPAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % TAIWAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % THAILAND MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 19

20 3 Month Arrivals Outlook MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % BRAZIL MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % KUWAIT MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % UAE MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % INDIA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % AUSTRALIA SINGAPORE S. KOREA MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % JAPAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % TAIWAN MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % THAILAND MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % MAY 16 JUL % MAY % JUN % JUL % MAY 17 JUL % Premier Vision April 2017 Premier Tax Free 20

21 Part of the Fintrax Group Fintrax Group Holdings Headquartered in Galway, Ireland Web: premiertaxfree.com/business If you would like to know more about Tax Free Statistics, please get in touch with your Premier Tax Free representative.